Liquidity and Fund Flow - The supply side of funds has slightly contracted, with public equity issuance recovering in the past two weeks, and leveraged funds seeing a significant net inflow of 265 billion CNY, ranking in the 90th percentile over the past three years[6] - Equity financing surged by 543.5 billion CNY in the last two weeks, placing it in the 99th percentile over the past three years[4] - Southbound funds continued to flow in, with a net inflow of 259 billion CNY, ranking in the 88th percentile over the past three years[39] Trading Congestion - Financial and TMT sectors saw an increase in trading heat, with brokerage heat rising by 34 percentage points to 39% and computer sector heat increasing by 16 percentage points to 67%[4] - Conversely, the chemical sector experienced a decline of 11 percentage points to 79%, and the real estate sector decreased by 9 percentage points to 34%[4] Investor Sentiment - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, driving a surge in search interest for Kuaishou A-shares[4] - Retail investor net inflow decreased to 633 billion CNY, down 402.1 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 19.2 percentile over the past five years[4] - The net inflow of financing funds increased to 265.3 billion CNY, up 300.4 billion CNY from the previous week[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On July 2, 2025, the convertible bond market showed an incremental decline with compressed valuations. The market style favored large-cap value stocks, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up. The central price of convertible bonds decreased, and the proportion of high-priced bonds declined. In the industry, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices rose in the A-share market, while 25 industries in the convertible bond market declined [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.32% compared to the previous day. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.61%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.13%, the SSE 50 Index increased by 0.18%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.01% [2]. - **Market Style**: Large-cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large-cap growth decreased by 0.23%, large-cap value increased by 0.62%, mid-cap growth decreased by 0.26%, mid-cap value increased by 0.59%, small-cap growth decreased by 0.72%, and small-cap value increased by 0.38% [2]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 65.532 billion yuan, a 4.39% increase compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All A was 1.405109 trillion yuan, a 6.11% decrease compared to the previous day. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 33.19 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10-year treasury bond decreased by 0.37bp to 1.64% [2]. 2. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - **Convertible Bond Price**: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 122.40 yuan, a 0.32% decrease compared to the previous day. The closing price of equity-oriented convertible bonds was 161.10 yuan, a 3.28% decrease; the closing price of bond-oriented convertible bonds was 113.48 yuan, a 0.05% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 123.06 yuan, a 0.44% decrease. The proportion of high-priced bonds above 130 yuan was 28.85%, a 3.78pct decrease compared to the previous day. The price median was 123.75 yuan, a 0.84% decrease compared to the previous day [3]. - **Convertible Bond Valuation**: The valuation was compressed. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100-yuan par value was 24.49%, a 0.53pct decrease compared to the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 92.65 yuan, a 0.50% increase compared to the previous day. The premium rate of equity-oriented convertible bonds was 5.49%, a 1.26pct decrease; the premium rate of bond-oriented convertible bonds was 93.19%, a 1.57pct decrease; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 18.96%, a 0.49pct decrease [3]. 3. Industry Performance - **Underlying Stock Industry**: In the A-share market, the top three industries in terms of increase were steel (+3.37%), coal (+1.99%), and building materials (+1.42%); the top three industries in terms of decrease were electronics (-2.01%), communication (-1.96%), and national defense and military industry (-1.94%). - **Convertible Bond Market**: A total of 25 industries in the convertible bond market declined. The top three industries in terms of decrease were communication (-2.34%), bank (-2.17%), and automobile (-1.51%); the top three industries in terms of increase were steel (+0.70%), coal (+0.21%), and national defense and military industry (+0.08%) [4]. - **Industry Indicators**: In terms of closing price, large-cycle decreased by 0.41%, manufacturing decreased by 0.79%, technology decreased by 1.16%, large-consumption decreased by 0.56%, and large-finance decreased by 1.55%. In terms of conversion premium rate, large-cycle decreased by 1.5pct, manufacturing decreased by 1.2pct, technology increased by 0.82pct, large-consumption decreased by 1.1pct, and large-finance decreased by 0.54pct. In terms of conversion value, large-cycle increased by 0.37%, manufacturing decreased by 0.42%, technology decreased by 1.56%, large-consumption decreased by 0.06%, and large-finance decreased by 1.80%. In terms of pure bond premium rate, large-cycle decreased by 0.57pct, manufacturing decreased by 1.0pct, technology decreased by 1.7pct, large-consumption decreased by 0.68pct, and large-finance decreased by 2.3pct [4][5]. 4. Industry Rotation - **Leading Industries**: Steel, coal, and building materials led the rise. The daily increase of steel in the underlying stock was 3.37%, and 0.70% in the convertible bond market; the daily increase of coal in the underlying stock was 1.99%, and 0.21% in the convertible bond market; the daily increase of building materials in the underlying stock was 1.42%, and -0.83% in the convertible bond market [53].

Group 1: Export Growth Predictions - The current month’s export growth rate is showing marginal weakness but remains resilient, with the monitoring of port container throughput being the most practical high-frequency indicator[2] - The global manufacturing PMI from JPMorgan indicates a continued weakening in overall trade demand, with the PMI dropping below the neutral line in May[3] - The export volume is expected to continue with a strong price but weak price structure, as indicated by the PPI trends[4] Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - China’s "excess" exports from March to May amounted to approximately $50.4 billion, representing about 17% of the average export value for the first five months of the year[5] - The U.S. has seen a significant increase in imports, with an estimated excess of $188.3 billion from December 2024 to May 2025, accounting for 68.6% of the average monthly imports[6] - The transfer port trade ratio is estimated to be between 41% and 58.7%, indicating a notable shift in trade patterns[8] Group 3: Annual Export Forecasts - The annual export growth rate is projected to range from -5% to 0%, depending on the occurrence of systemic risks[9] - Global trade demand is expected to decline, with the WTO predicting a decrease in global trade volume growth to -0.2% for 2025, which is 3 percentage points lower than previous forecasts[10] - The risk of export transfer is monitored through various indicators, with the gap between U.S. import growth and Chinese export growth widening significantly in the first quarter[11]

Strategy - The report constructs a macroeconomic state-based dividend rotation portfolio, achieving an annualized return of 15%. The rotation focuses on four categories: cyclical, consumer, stable, and manufacturing dividends, using indicators such as M1 year-on-year growth, PPI index, and 10Y government bond yield to define macro states [15][35][39]. Financial Sector - In June, the banking sector rose by 5.37%, with valuations continuing to recover. The report suggests a diversified investment strategy focusing on state-owned banks and quality regional banks, highlighting the long-term investment value of major banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [13][39]. Transportation and Utilities - H-shares outperformed A-shares, emphasizing investment opportunities in Hong Kong dividend assets. Recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu and Anhui Expressway for highways, and China Merchants Port for ports, which are expected to benefit from long-term value and dividend increases [13][39]. Energy and Chemicals - With the arrival of the driving season in Europe and the US, the report highlights investment opportunities in the energy sector. It recommends focusing on major oil and gas companies like China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical, as well as coal companies like China Shenhua Energy [13][39]. Food and Beverage - The sector is entering a performance verification period, with a focus on improving dividend quality. Recommendations include leading liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as dairy companies like Yili [13][39]. Home Appliances - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in leading companies within the home appliance sector, particularly those benefiting from government policies and improving domestic sales. Key recommendations include Midea Group and Haier Smart Home [13][39]. Real Estate - With a decline in residential property sales, the report suggests focusing on commercial real estate. Recommended companies include Swire Properties and China Resources Land, which are expected to maintain stable cash flows and dividends [13][39]. Publishing - The education publishing sector is highlighted for its stability and potential for high dividends. Recommendations include Southern Publishing and Media Group, which is expected to maintain strong performance and dividend payouts [13][39]. Selected Dividend Assets - The report identifies a selection of stable and quality dividend assets, including Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Sichuan Chengyu, Kweichow Moutai, and Gree Electric Appliances, among others [12][39].

Group 1: Audit Report Overview - The audit report highlights significant disciplinary violations and audit rectification situations, with the number of cases, individuals, and amounts involved being at a median level over the past five years[6] - The report covers eight key areas, including audit rectification, central financial management, and major project audits[17] - As of March 2025, over 6,540 billion yuan has been rectified in response to issues identified in the 2023 audit, with 1,710 regulations improved and over 4,120 individuals held accountable[17] Group 2: Key Findings - Since May 2024, 430 major disciplinary violations have been discovered, involving over 1,400 individuals and exceeding 630 billion yuan, which is lower than the figures from 2020 and 2021[24] - The central department budget execution audit revealed that 42 departments received 619.96 billion yuan in fiscal allocations for 2024, with identified issues amounting to 28.15 billion yuan[7] - The audit of pension funds across 25 provinces found issues totaling 60.16 billion yuan, with 41.41 billion yuan being misappropriated or fraudulently claimed[28] Group 3: Specific Issues Identified - The audit uncovered 1,325.97 billion yuan in issues related to local government special bonds, highlighting risks associated with hidden debts[27] - Violations of the central eight regulations were noted, with expenditures amounting to 18.19 million yuan on extravagant activities[29] - The report identified ongoing issues with zero-based budgeting, including 53.09 million yuan allocated for outdated subsidies[29]

Group 1: Audit Report Overview - The audit report highlights significant disciplinary violations and audit rectification situations, with the number of cases, individuals, and amounts being in the middle range over the past five years[2] - The audit report is presented annually, with the work report released in June and the rectification report in December[3] - As of March 2025, over 6,540 billion yuan has been rectified in response to issues identified in the 2023 audit, with 1,710 regulations improved and 4,120 individuals held accountable[4] Group 2: Key Findings from the 2024 Audit Report - The central government budget execution audit involved 42 departments and 244 units, with a total budget allocation of 619.957 billion yuan for 2024, uncovering issues amounting to 28.146 billion yuan[4] - The audit identified 430 major disciplinary violations since May 2024, involving over 1,400 individuals and 63 billion yuan, which is lower than the amounts reported in 2020 and 2021[6] - Specific issues included 1,325.97 billion yuan related to local government bond management and risks, and 601.61 billion yuan in pension fund misappropriations across 25 provinces[19][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 1, 2025, the convertible bond market showed incremental growth with rising valuations. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up, while the total trading volume of the A-share market decreased slightly. The median price and overall weighted average parity of convertible bonds increased, and the proportion of high-priced bonds rose. In the industry, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices rose, with different performance trends among different industries [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - **Index Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.48% compared to the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.11%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.21%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.28% [2]. - **Market Style**: Mid-cap value stocks outperformed. Large-cap growth stocks rose 0.10%, large-cap value stocks rose 0.63%, mid-cap growth stocks fell 0.04%, mid-cap value stocks rose 0.88%, small-cap growth stocks rose 0.37%, and small-cap value stocks rose 0.39% [2]. - **Fund Performance**: The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 62.777 billion yuan, a 15.43% increase compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All-A Index was 1.496531 trillion yuan, a 1.37% decrease compared to the previous day. The net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23.112 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10-year treasury bond decreased 0.36bp to 1.64% [2]. 2. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - **Convertible Bond Price**: The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 122.81 yuan, a 0.47% increase compared to the previous day. The closing price of equity-biased convertible bonds was 166.37 yuan, a 2.00% decrease; the closing price of bond-biased convertible bonds was 113.54 yuan, a 0.23% increase; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 123.61 yuan, a 0.48% increase. The proportion of high-priced bonds above 130 yuan was 32.62%, a 2.13 percentage point increase compared to the previous day. There were 2 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 124.80 yuan, a 0.48% increase compared to the previous day [3]. - **Convertible Bond Valuation**: The conversion premium rate of the 100-yuan parity fitting was 25.02%, a 0.30 percentage point increase compared to the previous day. The overall weighted parity was 92.22 yuan, a 0.61% increase compared to the previous day. The premium rate of equity-biased convertible bonds was 6.68%, a 0.35 percentage point decrease; the premium rate of bond-biased convertible bonds was 94.76%, a 1.21 percentage point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 19.45%, a 0.03 percentage point increase [3]. 3. Industry Performance - **Underlying Stock Industry Index**: In the A-share market, the top three rising industries were Medicine and Biology (+1.80%), Banks (+1.53%), and Non-ferrous Metals (+1.49%); the top three falling industries were Computer (-1.18%), Commerce and Retail (-0.79%), and Communications (-0.45%). In the convertible bond market, 22 industries rose, with the top three rising industries being Non-ferrous Metals (+2.04%), National Defense and Military Industry (+1.52%), and Banks (+1.23%); the top three falling industries were Communications (-1.15%), Computer (-0.62%), and Steel (-0.26%) [4]. - **Industry Indicators**: In terms of closing price, the large-cycle sector rose 0.73%, the manufacturing sector rose 0.18%, the technology sector fell -0.02%, the large-consumption sector rose 0.39%, and the large-finance sector rose 0.70%. In terms of conversion premium rate, the large-cycle sector fell -0.53 percentage points, the manufacturing sector rose 0.67 percentage points, the technology sector rose 0.83 percentage points, the large-consumption sector fell -0.19 percentage points, and the large-finance sector fell -0.99 percentage points. In terms of conversion value, the large-cycle sector rose 1.00%, the manufacturing sector fell -0.14%, the technology sector fell -0.67%, the large-consumption sector rose 0.46%, and the large-finance sector rose 0.68%. In terms of pure bond premium rate, the large-cycle sector rose 0.91 percentage points, the manufacturing sector rose 0.21 percentage points, the technology sector fell -0.083 percentage points, the large-consumption sector rose 0.45 percentage points, and the large-finance sector rose 0.83 percentage points [4][5].

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for June is 49.7%, up from 49.5% in May[2] - The production index is at 51.0%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value of 50.7%[2] - The new orders index stands at 50.2%, rising from 49.8%[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is the highest at 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points from April's 49.6%[4] - The construction industry business activity index is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month[14] - The service industry business activity index is slightly down at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points[14] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI factory price index is at 46.2%, remaining below the neutral line for 13 consecutive months[4] - The inventory index has improved, with the purchasing index at 50.2%, up from 47.6%[3] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.7%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month[15] Group 4: External Trade and Expectations - New export orders index is at 47.7%, a slight increase from 47.5%[3] - The manufacturing production expectation index is at 52.0%, down from 52.5%[14] - The construction industry business activity expectation index is at 53.9%, up from 52.4%[14]

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" positions artificial intelligence as a core focus of industrial policy, reflecting a clear progression in policy priorities over the past five plans, from heavy industry to digital economy and technological self-reliance [8][13][25] - The AI industry is experiencing rapid growth, with foundational infrastructure still in its early stages and a surge in general AI applications [8][5] - The report highlights the increasing importance of AI in various sectors, including office efficiency, marketing, and ERP systems, indicating a broad penetration of AI technologies across industries [8][5] Group 2 - In the electronics sector, AI infrastructure is expected to maintain high growth, with new players emerging in AI computing and significant advancements in AI hardware from leading companies like Qualcomm and Apple [8][5] - The media sector is anticipated to see accelerated application and commercialization of AI products, with a focus on AI agents, companionship, multimodal AI, and AI in education [8][5] - The communication sector is advised to monitor developments in AI and edge computing, particularly following positive guidance from Marvell and the launch of Xiaomi's AI glasses [8][5] Group 3 - The humanoid robotics sector is viewed positively for its commercialization pace, with a focus on three core areas: product development, customer engagement, and application scenarios [8][5] - In the automotive industry, there are opportunities for investment in new vehicle cycles and low-positioned components, despite current low enthusiasm for robotics and intelligent driving chains [8][5] - The report recommends a selection of companies across various sectors, including Shenghong Technology, Huidian Technology, and Alibaba, as part of a curated investment strategy in the AI landscape [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the enterprise storage sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor storage industry is experiencing a price increase driven by supply contraction and high demand from AI applications, with a significant shift towards DDR5 and enterprise-level storage products [8][9]. - Domestic manufacturers are accelerating their entry into the enterprise storage market, with notable advancements in both flash and memory modules, positioning them to capture market share from established players [8][9]. Summary by Sections Supply Contraction and Price Strength - The supply contraction in DRAM due to the discontinuation of DDR4 is leading to rising prices for both spot and contract markets, with a projected price increase of 13% to 18% for PC DRAM in Q2 2025 [19][12]. - In NAND Flash, the discontinuation of MLC and low-capacity TLC products is pushing up eMMC prices, with a significant increase in demand from cloud service providers [20][23]. AI and Domestic Market Trends - The global expansion of data center infrastructure is driving the demand for high-performance storage, with AI servers becoming a core growth engine for the storage market [28][32]. - The Chinese AI server market is projected to grow from $19 billion in 2024 to $25.9 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.2% [28][29]. Relevant Companies - Key companies to watch include: - **Xiangnong Xinchuan**: Focused on enterprise storage development [38]. - **Zhaoyi Innovation**: Leading in domestic storage IC design [38]. - **Jiangbolong**: Achieving significant growth in enterprise-level products [38]. - **Demingli**: Beginning to sample enterprise-level products [38]. - **Baiwei Storage**: Building competitive advantages in AI storage [38]. - **Jucheng Co.**: Accelerating penetration of DDR5 technology [38]. - **Lianyun Technology**: Leading in domestic SSD controller chips [38]. - **Beijing Junzheng**: A leading player in automotive storage [38]. - **Purang Co.**: Emerging in the NOR Flash market [38]. - **Dongxin Co.**: A leading domestic SLC NAND manufacturer [38].