Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 47.00 [8] Core Insights - The company reported a Q1 revenue increase of 18.9% to RMB 4.43 billion, exceeding previous guidance of 15-18%, driven by domestic channel upgrades and inventory optimization [1] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 4.8% to RMB 590 million due to significant investments in direct stores and increased financial expenses [1] - The company is transitioning from an aggressive expansion strategy to a more refined operational approach, focusing on profitability stabilization and global business expansion [1][4] Revenue Performance - Domestic revenue for Miniso increased by 9.1%, with offline and online sales growing by 7.3% and 32.7% respectively [2] - Overseas revenue surged by 30.3%, with 95 new stores opened during the quarter, particularly in North America [2] - TopToy's revenue grew by 58.9% to RMB 340 million, with self-developed products accounting for over 40% of sales [2] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2%, although it decreased by 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal effects [3] - Selling and administrative expense ratios increased by 4.4 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points to 23.1% and 5.5% respectively, primarily due to investments in direct stores [3] - Adjusted net profit margin fell by 3.3 percentage points to 13.3% [3] Strategic Focus - The company is emphasizing "high-quality growth" by enhancing store competitiveness and optimizing inventory turnover [4] - In the domestic market, the focus is on same-store sales improvement, while overseas operations are concentrating on localization and efficiency [4] - The local procurement ratio in the U.S. has reached nearly 40% to mitigate tariff risks [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down by 7.1%, 9.0%, and 9.0% to RMB 2.99 billion, RMB 3.73 billion, and RMB 4.57 billion respectively [5] - The target price is based on a 2025 PE ratio of 18x, reflecting increased uncertainty in overseas expansion [5] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive PE ratio compared to peers, with a projected PE of 29x for comparable companies [5][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 47.00 [8] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue increase of 18.9% to RMB 4.43 billion, exceeding previous guidance of 15-18%, driven by domestic channel upgrades and inventory optimization [1] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 4.8% to RMB 590 million due to rapid expansion of direct stores and increased financial expenses [1] - The company's strategy has shifted from aggressive expansion to refined operations, focusing on enhancing profitability and supporting global business expansion [1][4] Revenue Performance - Domestic revenue for Miniso increased by 9.1%, with offline and online sales growing by 7.3% and 32.7% respectively [2] - Overseas revenue grew by 30.3%, with 95 new stores opened during the quarter, particularly in North America [2] - TopToy's revenue surged by 58.9% to RMB 340 million, with self-developed products accounting for over 40% of sales [2] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved by 0.8 percentage points to 44.2%, although it decreased by 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal effects [3] - Selling and administrative expense ratios increased by 4.4 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points to 23.1% and 5.5% respectively, primarily due to significant investments in direct stores [3] - Adjusted net profit margin fell by 3.3 percentage points to 13.3% [3] Strategic Focus - The company is pursuing a "high-quality growth" strategy, emphasizing same-store sales improvement and store competitiveness through upgrades and new openings [4] - In the overseas market, the focus is on localization and efficiency, with nearly 40% of U.S. procurement sourced locally to mitigate tariff risks [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 7.1%, 9.0%, and 9.0% to RMB 2.99 billion, RMB 3.73 billion, and RMB 4.57 billion respectively [5] - The target price is based on a 2025 PE ratio of 18x, reflecting increased uncertainty in overseas expansion [5]

证券研究报告 上周细分行业回顾 截至 5.24，上周全国水泥价格周环比-2.0%；水泥出货率 46.4%，周环比/ 同比-2.6%/-7.9pct；上周国内浮法玻璃均价 69 元/重量箱，周环比/同比 -1.2%/-22.6%，重点样本企业库存 5774 万重箱，周环比-0.9%，年同比 +7.6%，库存天数约 29.84 天，环比-0.28 天。截至 5.22，3.2mm/2.0mm 光伏玻璃主流订单价格 21.25/13.25 元/平米，周环比持-1.2%/-1.9%，行业 重点样本企业库存天数 28.49 天，环比+0.93%。截至 5.22，2400tex 缠绕 直接纱均价 3712 元/吨，周环比-0.6%，电子纱/电子布价格环比持平。 工业/基础材料 施工淡季价格回落，兼顾红利与景气 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 26 日│中国内地 行业周报（第二十一周） 本周观点：施工淡季实物量回落，挖掘细分景气新产业 据国家统计局，25 年 1-4 月基建/地产投资同比+5.8%/-10.3%，较 1-3 月增 速持平/-0.4pct，水运、核建、管网改造等基建细分行业有望保持高景气。4 月一线城市新房/二 ...

证券研究报告 策略 海外扰动凸显香港相对价值 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 25 日│中国内地 策略周报 核心观点 港股市场热度较高，风险情绪改善支撑上周港股小幅收涨 1.1%。近期仍有 投资者担忧供给冲击与海外利率上升，我们认为无需过度悲观。首先，港股 流动性充裕，可有效承接宁德时代等大型 IPO 融资，优质资产上市反而吸 引增量资金。其次，尽管美债利率上行，但当前港元需求强劲推动金管局释 放大量流动性，有效对冲海外利率压力，且港股与美股相关性已经减弱。外 部市场的不稳定或进一步巩固港股承接超配美元资产的地位。我们提示战略 性重视港股市场的配置价值（2025.5.23《港股重估蓄势待发》）。港股或仍 具相对收益，科技+消费是配置主线，关注人民币升值受益板块，以及大市 值且互联互通交易量大的标的 AH 溢价收窄趋势。 无需过度担忧 IPO 对港股造成的供给侧压力 上周，宁德时代与恒瑞医药相继港股上市，相对其 A 股均出现溢价，且基 石投资者有海外主权及长线资金的身影。今年香港市场发行热度较高，部分 投资者担心可能对市场造成供给侧压力，我们认为无需过度忧虑。1）港元 需求强劲下香港金管局向市场释放大量流动性， ...

证券研究报告 房地产 把握资产重估预期下的香港地产机遇 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 25 日│中国内地 专题研究 多重积极因素催化下，香港房地产市场有望迎来企稳契机 当前全球去美元化大幕初启，香港作为亚洲流动性最好的离岸市场之一，资 产价值有望迎来重估。我们认为香港楼市已经历较长时间调整，正处于企稳 复苏的关键期，尽管短期来看仍面临一定库存去化压力，但在人民币潜在升 值、港股财富效应外溢、政策全面放松、利率下行及内地人才持续流入等多 重积极因素推动下，我们认为香港房地产市场将迎来改善，两类资产修复值 得关注：1、香港住宅市场成交量价有望于 2025 年下半年开始迎来企稳回 升；2、商业资产有望随着景气度回升，受益于消费改善及租金回暖。我们 看好香港本地开发商和商业运营企业估值修复，建议关注香港地铁沿线拥有 充裕土地储备和优质商业运营资产的港铁公司。 历史复盘：香港股市对楼市走势具备领先效应 我们通过复盘 2003 年以来三轮恒生指数牛市和香港楼市成交量价的联动关 系，分别是 2003-2007 年 SARS 后经济复苏期周期、2009-2015 年 QE 货 币宽松刺激周期、2016 年-2018 年宏观 ...

策略 证券研究报告 2025 年 5 月 25 日│中国内地 策略周报 核心观点 上周部分资金落袋为安的需求及小微盘股成交额占比走高构成了市场后半 周调整的底色，当前市场进入日历效应指引的缺失期，上行及下行风险的能 见度都较低，"上有顶、下有底"或仍将是市场短期的基准运行状态。海外 关税有所反复、国内资金面有所扰动下市场波动或有回升，配置上建议把握 波动中的确定性，一是中美贸易摩擦缓和、人民币不贬值甚至有升值预期下 对应的大金融、消费等板块，二是泛科技仍是中期主线，可择机布局。 多重因素下上周市场有所调整 波动率回升，布局确定性板块 华泰研究 上周市场小幅回调，结构上看高股息表现相对较优，小盘股表现则相对较弱， 我们认为本次回调可以从三个角度理解：1）关键点位附近部分资金落袋为 安意愿较强。上周市场已修复至"对等关税"落地前中枢水平，沪深 300、 中证 1000 股指期货当季合约年化基差贴水程度偏高，反映出投资者对后市 偏谨慎、有落袋为安需求；2）小微盘股成交额占比较高，对市场上行形成 一定阻力。当前中证 2000 成交额占比高于其他主要宽基指数，表明资金在 小微盘股上配置较为集中，当市场出现扰动时，小微盘 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking and securities sectors [11][14]. Core Insights - The approval of floating rate funds and the asymmetric interest rate cut are expected to create investment opportunities, particularly in the banking sector, followed by securities and insurance [2][14]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points, which, along with a larger cut in deposit rates, is aimed at reducing financing costs for the real economy and alleviating pressure on bank interest margins [3][15]. - The first batch of new floating rate fund products has been approved, with fee rates set at 1.2%, 1.5%, and 0.6%, which strengthens the alignment of interests between fund managers and investors [2][40]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector - The PBOC's interest rate cuts are expected to lower financing costs for the real economy and help banks manage their interest margins better. The report highlights structural opportunities within the banking sector [3][15]. - Key recommended banks include Hangzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, Shanghai Bank, and China Merchants Bank, with various ratings from "Buy" to "Overweight" [4][49]. - The banking index increased by 0.60%, while the overall market index (CSI 300) rose by 0.77% [15]. Securities Sector - The report indicates that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) supports the listing of quality unprofitable tech companies and the return of quality red-chip tech firms to the domestic market, which may gradually alleviate pressure on investment banking operations [3][39]. - Recommended securities firms include CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Galaxy Securities, with ratings of "Buy" [4][49]. - The approval of floating rate funds is expected to enhance the market's stability and support the growth of quality tech enterprises [39][40]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector showed mixed performance, with China Pacific Insurance rising by 2% and New China Life Insurance falling by 2% [3][45]. - The report suggests focusing on quality leading insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, and AIA Group for potential investment [4][45]. - The overall market sentiment regarding liquidity improvement is expected to continue attracting funds into the insurance sector [45].

Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now indicates a 2.4% actual GDP growth rate for Q2 2025, with a -0.1% adjustment excluding gold impacts[1] - The actual personal consumption Nowcast rose to 3.7% last week, indicating strong consumer spending[1] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 227,000, below expectations, while continuing claims increased to 1.903 million, exceeding forecasts[1] Manufacturing and PMI Data - The US May PMI rose to 52.5, with both manufacturing and services PMIs at 52.3, surpassing expectations and previous values[2] - Eurozone and Japan's manufacturing PMIs also exceeded expectations, at 49.4 and 49 respectively, although service sectors showed weakness[2] Policy Developments - The US House passed the "Beautiful Act," which includes tax cuts, defense spending, and an increase in the debt ceiling, with fiscal expansion slightly exceeding expectations[3] - Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, while Japan softened its stance on tariffs[3] Financial Market Trends - US stock markets experienced a pullback, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones down 2.6%, 2.5%, and 2.5% respectively[4] - The yield on 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasuries rose by 2bp, 8bp, and 15bp to 4.0%, 4.51%, and 5.04% respectively[4] - The US dollar index fell by 1.8% to 99.1, while the euro and yen appreciated by 0.9% to 1.13 and 1.3% to 143.3 respectively[4] Commodity Prices - COMEX gold futures increased by 5.6% to $3365.8 per ounce, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.7% to $65.6 per barrel[4]

Market Reaction - Following Trump's announcement, the US experienced a significant decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, with the dollar index dropping by 0.8% and the euro strengthening by 0.7%[2] - European stock indices, particularly France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX, fell by 1.9% and 1.5% respectively, while the S&P 500 index in the US decreased by 0.7%[2] - The 10-year Eurozone bond yield increased by 1.4 basis points, while the 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 2.3 basis points, indicating market volatility[2] Tariff Implications - Trump's proposed 50% tariff on the EU could lead to significant economic repercussions for both the US and EU, as they are each other's largest trading partners[4] - In 2024, the US accounted for 14% of EU imports and 21% of EU exports, while the EU represented 18% of US imports and 19% of US exports[4] - If implemented, the US could see a reduction of over 50% in imports from the EU, severely impacting industries such as pharmaceuticals, machinery, and automobiles[4] Economic Context - The US faces increasing pressure from rising Treasury yields, which could limit the effectiveness of its tariff policies and lead to greater asset sell-off[5] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year and 30-year bonds have recently surpassed 4.5% and 5.0% respectively, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability[5][6] - The EU has more room for fiscal expansion compared to the US, which may lead to a more favorable economic outlook for Europe in the face of potential tariffs[5] Political Dynamics - Trump's tariff threats may be more of a strategic maneuver in trade negotiations with the EU, especially given the slow progress in recent talks[3] - The political landscape in the US may limit Trump's ability to implement the proposed tariffs, as domestic pressures could shift focus away from international trade issues[7] - The likelihood of the 50% tariff being enacted is low, with expectations that the final tariff level will not exceed 20%[8]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Horizon Robotics with a "Buy" rating, setting a target price of HKD 9.28 based on a 31.1X PS for 2025 [1][7][5]. Core Views - Horizon Robotics is a leading supplier of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving solutions, focusing on empowering vehicles and robots through intelligent solutions [14][23]. - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of high-level assisted driving functions driven by major automakers like Li Auto, BYD, and Volkswagen [1][2]. - The domestic market for intelligent driving SoC chips is projected to grow significantly, with the market expected to expand from approximately USD 2 billion in 2024 to USD 6.2 billion by 2030 [2]. Company Overview - Horizon Robotics has a complete product matrix and strong software delivery capabilities, with a focus on high-performance chips and proprietary algorithms [3][14]. - The company has achieved significant milestones, including the mass production of various chip series and partnerships with major Tier 1 suppliers [4][14]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of RMB 3.66 billion, RMB 5.54 billion, and RMB 7.82 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 53%, 51%, and 41% [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The intelligent driving industry is entering a high-growth phase, with the penetration rate of advanced intelligent driving expected to increase rapidly [2][20]. - Domestic chip suppliers are well-positioned to meet the demand for cost-effective and reliable solutions, which aligns with the needs of downstream automakers [2][21]. - The report highlights the potential for Horizon Robotics to expand into international markets, particularly as domestic brands seek to innovate globally [21][24]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve a chip shipment volume of 4 million, 5.22 million, and 6.93 million units in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding revenues of RMB 3.66 billion, RMB 5.54 billion, and RMB 7.82 billion [5][6]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in average selling price (ASP) per vehicle as the company scales its operations and introduces new algorithms [20][21]. Competitive Landscape - Horizon Robotics faces competition from international players like Mobileye and NVIDIA, but the report suggests that its domestic advantages in cost and supply chain reliability will be beneficial [4][21]. - The company has established partnerships with leading global Tier 1 suppliers, which may enhance its competitive positioning in the international market [21][24].