Group 1: Wealth Management Trends - The wealth management scale decreased by CNY 286.4 billion to CNY 31.33 trillion during the week of June 23-27, 2025, marking a significant decline compared to previous years[1] - Historical data shows that the decline in the second quarter has consistently exceeded CNY 1.1 trillion in recent years, indicating a seasonal pattern[2] - In July, the wealth management scale typically experiences seasonal expansion, with historical increases ranging from CNY 1.4 trillion to CNY 2.2 trillion, while June declines are generally between CNY 0.8 trillion and CNY 1.5 trillion[3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average daily purchase of liquidity management assets, such as certificates of deposit, was CNY 12.9 billion from June 16-27, significantly higher than the average of CNY 1.4 billion during the same period in 2022-2024[4] - The average leverage ratio in the interbank market rose from 108.00% to 108.11% during the week of June 23-27, indicating increasing leverage despite a controlled liability pressure on banks[5] - The weighted issuance rate of certificates of deposit decreased to 1.64%, reflecting manageable pressure on banks' balance sheets[6] Group 3: Fund Duration and Risk Indicators - The duration of medium- and long-term bond funds decreased, with the duration of interest rate-based funds dropping from 5.29 years to 5.11 years, while credit-based funds saw a slight decrease from 2.44 years to 2.41 years[7] - The overall negative yield rate for wealth management products decreased to 1.46%, down 2.55 percentage points from the previous week, indicating improved performance[8] - The proportion of underperforming wealth management products fell to 16.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous week, suggesting a stabilization in product performance[9]

Market Overview - From June 23 to 27, the equity market experienced a significant rise, with the Wind All A Index closing at 5268.17, up 3.56% from June 20, while the China Convertible Bond Index rose 2.08%[1][10] - The increase was driven by stabilizing funds and a fear of missing out (FOMO) among investors, although the rally faced resistance starting Thursday due to limited potential buying power[1][19] Overseas Insights - The easing of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions led to a drop in the US Dollar Index, which fell below 97 on June 26, marking its lowest point since February 2022[2][31] - The market is currently desensitized to tariff impacts, focusing instead on the potential effects of the Section 232 investigation on specific industries, particularly copper futures[2][34] Strategy and Opportunities - Historical analysis suggests that after significant rallies, markets often enter a consolidation phase. The report highlights two types of past market behaviors: one driven by volatility expectations and another supported by stabilizing funds[3][35] - Key sectors to watch include consumer goods (supported by policy), technology (low crowding and ongoing narratives), and dividend stocks (potentially benefiting from risk-averse sentiment)[3][44] Convertible Bond Valuation - As of June 27, convertible bond valuations have stretched across various price levels, with the valuation center for an 80 CNY parity bond rising to 48.23%, a 1.25 percentage point increase from June 20[4][26] - The report notes that while convertible bond valuations are elevated, they remain below extreme levels, indicating potential for further growth[4][28] Risk Factors - The report warns of potential rapid style rotation in the equity market and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules, which could impact investor sentiment and market stability[5][50]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - In June, the number of game approvals reached a recent high, with 158 games approved, including 147 domestic and 11 imported games. This reflects the regulatory support for the healthy development of the industry, injecting new momentum into the market [2][25] - The stability of policies significantly enhances the predictability of domestic manufacturers' R&D and distribution plans, promoting resources towards high-quality and long-term development [2][25] - The expansion of import licenses demonstrates an inclusive and innovative attitude, indicating a shift from scale expansion to high-quality development in the industry [2][25] - Investment opportunities include: 1) Hong Kong internet leaders benefiting from consumption promotion and employment stability; 2) The gaming industry, which is expected to see demand growth driven by policy incentives and technological empowerment; 3) The film and cultural tourism industry, which will benefit from consumption policies that stimulate cinema recovery [3][26] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Sauce Garden Case" with 97.046 million yuan (27.0% market share), "Detective Conan: The Lone Eye's Remnant" with 95.633 million yuan (26.6%), and "How to Train Your Dragon" with 42.064 million yuan (11.7%) [28][29] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Endless Winter." The top three Android games by popularity are "Heartbeat Town," "Sword and Wand Legend," and "My Leisure Time" [31][32] TV Series Industry - The top TV series by broadcast index are "Lingjiang Xian" and "Book Scroll Dream" (both tied for first), followed by "The Lychee of Chang'an" and "In the Name of Law" [34][35] Variety and Animation - The top variety show is "Ha Ha Ha Ha Season 5," followed by "Infinite Overcoming Class Season 3" and "Singer 2025." The top animation is "Cang Yuan Tu: Meng Chuan's Counterattack" with a viewership index of 308 [36][38]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In July 2025, the production of major home appliances showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with domestic production outperforming exports. The domestic air conditioning market was affected by terminal market conditions, leading to a downward adjustment in production [9][10] - The third batch of funds for the replacement of old consumer goods will be disbursed in July, aimed at stimulating demand in the consumer goods sector [11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Topic: July Production Data - The production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in July 2025 indicated that domestic production was better than exports. The year-on-year growth rates for domestic air conditioning production from July to September are projected to be +8.1%, -19.2%, and -7.8% respectively, while export growth rates are expected to be -16.3%, -8.3%, and -16.6% [9] - Refrigerator production is also affected by U.S. tariff policies, with domestic production growth rates of +3.2%, -5.5%, and -3.5% for the same period, and export growth rates of -4.9%, -7.9%, and -4.1% [9] - The washing machine market is in a seasonal downturn, with domestic production growth rates of -4.6%, -6.9%, and -3.6%, while exports show growth rates of -3.8%, +1.2%, and +11.3% [10] 2. Company Key Announcements - Sanhua Intelligent Controls announced an expected net profit of 1.893 to 2.272 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 25% to 50% due to strong market demand in the refrigeration and automotive parts sectors [15] - Stone Technology submitted an application for H-share listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [15] 3. Data Tracking 3.1 Raw Material Data - As of June 27, 2025, LME copper prices increased by 1.1% and LME aluminum prices rose by 2.14% compared to the previous week [16] 3.2 Shipping Rates and Exchange Rates - The CCFI composite index increased by 2.00% as of June 27, 2025, while the USD to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.20% [24] 3.3 Real Estate Data - From January to May 2025, the sales area of commercial housing, completed housing area, and new housing starts showed year-on-year declines of -2.9%, -17.3%, and -22.8% respectively [26]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 固态电池全产业链扩散，1-5 月电网工程投资同比 增长 [Table_Title2] 电力设备与新能源行业周观察 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要 1.人形机器人 机器人产业布局加快 随着国内外企业布局&AI 技术突破，人形机器有望迎来量产落地 时点。在降本需求的驱动下，人形机器人核心零部件的国产替 代需求强烈，市场空间广阔，率先取得突破的国内企业有望深 度受益。 2.新能源汽车 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 小米 YU7 正式发布 我们认为，新能源汽车进入深度渗透的阶段，高性价比车型为 销售者带来更好的体验感，是扩大销售规模的核心推动力。新 车型的发布，短期有望推动关键环节排产上升以及国内销量增 长，中长期有助于新能源汽车行业稳健发展，看好核心供应商 相应机遇。 3.新能源 三北光伏治沙规划获批，2030 年新增装机达 253GW 我国沙戈荒地区蕴含着丰富的资源禀赋，为光伏治沙提供了广 阔的装机空间，国家林草局荒漠化防治司二级巡视员潘红星指 出，"在'沙戈荒'地区划定了对生态影响小、光伏电站建设 成本低的适建区域 1 ...

Market Review - The global stock market risk appetite has significantly improved due to the rapid de-escalation of the Middle East situation and the growing expectations of interest rate cuts overseas, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs. The A-share index has strengthened, driven by the large financial sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through its year-to-date high after three consecutive days of gains. Active theme investments have emerged, particularly in military, non-bank financials, and stablecoin concepts. Major A-share indices have generally risen, with the North Star 50, micro-cap indices, ChiNext, and CSI 2000 indices leading the gains, while the dividend index declined. In commodities, international oil prices and gold have significantly retreated, and the US dollar index continues to decline, with a year-to-date drop exceeding 10%, while the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has risen to around 7.15 [1][2]. Market Outlook - The global space for interest rate cuts has reopened, and the A-share market is expected to continue its "steady improvement." Despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the market has begun pricing in rate cuts due to the easing of geopolitical risks and falling oil prices. Domestically, the A-share index has gradually risen due to the continuous inflow of medium- to long-term funds. The recent increase in trading volume and improved profitability in the A-share market have boosted investor risk appetite, reopening the upper range of the market's fluctuation center. Looking ahead, the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy have significantly weakened, and the domestic policy of "stabilizing growth" requires a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces will help elevate A-share valuations. Key areas of focus for the market include: balanced industry allocation with a focus on non-ferrous metals, military industry, AI computing power, and AI applications. Thematic investments should pay attention to solid-state batteries, stablecoins, and self-controllable technologies [2]. Overseas Economic Conditions - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with the probability of three rate cuts in the second half of the year rising. The actual GDP of the US in the first quarter was unexpectedly revised down to -0.5%, with personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, only growing by 0.5%. This has led to a downward adjustment in its contribution to GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in service consumption. Consumer confidence in the US has significantly declined this year, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on US economic data. Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest that if inflation remains moderate, they may support a rate cut in July. Despite significant internal divisions reflected in the June dot plot, the market has begun to price in rate cuts, leading to declines in the US dollar index and Treasury yields, while US stocks have risen. According to CME FedWatch, market expectations for the number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have increased from two to three [5]. Domestic Economic Conditions - The weak dollar expectation is conducive to global capital flowing into emerging markets, with A-shares benefiting from domestic and foreign liquidity easing. In early May, the Hong Kong dollar triggered the strong-side Convertibility Undertaking multiple times, but within a month, it transitioned from a strong-side to a weak-side guarantee, indicating tightening liquidity expectations for the Hong Kong dollar, which may exert pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. However, this is expected to be a temporary impact. Looking ahead, the weak dollar driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts is likely to continue, further reducing the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy. In the second half of the year, the impact of tariffs on domestic exports may gradually become apparent, while the focus of domestic policy remains on "stabilizing growth," necessitating a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces, along with ample liquidity, is expected to directly promote the elevation of A-share valuations [5]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The increase in trading volume and profitability has helped boost risk appetite, with the A-share index center expected to rise in July. Year-to-date, medium- to long-term funds have continuously flowed into A-shares, with net purchases by social security, insurance, and annuity funds exceeding 200 billion yuan, contributing to a virtuous cycle of "reporting increases—funds entering—market stability." This week, the daily trading volume of A-shares has repeatedly exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, with no significant increase in the issuance of equity funds and ETF subscriptions. Meanwhile, financing funds have net purchased for four consecutive trading days (from June 23 to June 26), and after the Shanghai Composite Index effectively broke through 3,400 points, the financing balance has further increased, reflecting an improvement in market risk appetite, which is conducive to further elevating the A-share index center in July [5]. Fundamental Analysis - From a fundamental perspective, the impact of tariffs on corporate profits is gradually becoming apparent, and the marginal weakening of the real estate market is expected to delay the upward trend in A-share earnings. In May, the year-on-year decline in industrial enterprises above designated size was -9.1%, a significant drop from April's 3%, with declines in volume, price, and profit margins. The PPI in May fell by 3.3% year-on-year, remaining in negative territory for 32 consecutive months. Historical experience shows a strong correlation between PPI and non-financial A-share earnings; if PPI continues to weaken, it may interrupt the brief earnings recovery seen in A-shares in the first quarter. On the other hand, the weak fundamental elasticity of A-shares suggests that they are more likely to experience a gradual elevation of the fluctuation center amid volatility [5]. Valuation and Risk Premium - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares and the PE (TTM) excluding financials and oil & gas sectors are critical indicators for assessing market valuation. The latest valuation metrics for major A-share industries, including PE (TTM) and PB (LF), provide insights into the current market conditions and potential investment opportunities [38][40].

► 三、投资建议 [Table_Title2] 计算机行业周报 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: ► 一、稳定币：合规提速与应用破局并行 韩国通过《数字资产基本法》草案，大幅降低稳定币 发行门槛至 5 亿韩元，激发 Kakao Pay 等支付巨头及 银行联盟加速布局韩元稳定币；中国香港则发布《数 字资产发展宣言 2.0》，明确将于 2025 年 8 月实施稳 定币发牌机制；同时国泰君安国际获批成为首家拥有 虚拟资产全牌照的中资券商。两地政策驱动与头部机 构行动清晰表明，稳定币正深度嵌入主流金融体系， 这标志着亚洲本币稳定币生态加速成型，传统金融与 加密生态的融合进入规模化落地新阶段。 ► 二、代币化生态延伸，RWA 应用加速 中国移动通信联合会设立"RWA 联合实验室"，强化 标准与场景协同；国家数据局"数据要素×"行动联 合多部委，打通数据确权、跨域流通机制，为 RWA 提 供制度锚点。全球市场同步爆发，广发中国香港试水 离岸人民币代币化证券，拉美完成首笔链上能源资产 并购，Canton 获 1.35 亿美元融资凸显隐私合规基建 价值。RWA 通过资产上链重构传统金融效率，其"制 度设计+技术验证 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment and supply shortages have driven copper prices to their highest levels since March [6][17] - Precious metals have seen fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions easing and the signing of agreements between China and the US, leading to a correction in gold prices [1][40] - The overall sentiment in the basic metals sector is positive, with prices generally increasing across various metals [6][11] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices decreased by 2.90% to $3,286.10 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 0.60% to $36.17 per ounce [1][25] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 3.48% to 90.86, indicating a shift in market dynamics [26] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 147,420.08 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 3,726,451.20 ounces [26] Basic Metals - Copper prices rose by 2.26% to $9,879.00 per ton on the LME and by 2.47% to ¥79,920.00 per ton on the SHFE [6][48] - Aluminum prices increased by 1.31% to $2,595.00 per ton on the LME and by 0.56% to ¥20,580.00 per ton on the SHFE [6][48] - Zinc prices saw a significant rise of 4.89% to $2,778.50 per ton on the LME [6] - The overall sentiment in the basic metals market is buoyed by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [6][11] Copper - The market is currently focused on copper inventory shortages, with LME copper stocks decreasing and COMEX stocks reaching historical highs [7][72] - Supply-side challenges include high costs and shortages of copper concentrate, with potential production disruptions from mining operations [7][72] - Demand expectations are improving, although domestic copper rod production rates have slightly declined [7][72] Aluminum - The aluminum industry is experiencing supply-demand imbalances, with production capacity remaining stable despite some regional maintenance [10][75] - Demand from downstream sectors is weakening, particularly in traditional off-peak seasons, affecting purchasing behavior [10][75] - Future aluminum prices are expected to be supported by ongoing demand in sectors like new energy and power [10][75] Zinc - Zinc prices are being supported by expectations of supply disruptions due to labor strikes at key production facilities [11] - The overall demand for zinc is facing pressure from declining activity in downstream sectors [11] Lead - Lead prices are experiencing upward pressure due to tightening supply from primary smelters and recovering production from recycled lead facilities [12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices have increased due to low inventory levels, while demand remains cautious [13][14] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices are under pressure from downstream demand weakness, leading to price declines [15]

Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank increased net liquidity injection to 12,672 billion CNY during the week of June 23-27, marking the second-highest weekly net injection this year[1] - The central bank's reverse repos amounted to 20,275 billion CNY, with 9,603 billion CNY maturing during the same period[3] - The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) injection was 3,000 billion CNY, contributing to a total of 3,180 billion CNY in mid-to-long-term liquidity injection, exceeding the 1,630 billion CNY during the March quarter-end[1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Market Trends - Overnight rates remained stable, with DR001 averaging around 1.37% and R001 slightly increasing to 1.46% by the end of the week[1] - The cost of funds for the cross-quarter period rose, with DR007 increasing from 1.51% to 1.70% and R007 from 1.56% to 1.92%[1] - Historical data indicates that the R001 rate typically rises between 38-155 basis points at the end of Q2, with this year's first quarter seeing a rise of 102 basis points[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The liquidity situation is expected to ease post-June 30, with government debt net payments turning negative at -59 billion CNY, down from 7,898 billion CNY the previous week[5] - The upcoming week (June 30 - July 4) will see a significant reverse repo maturity of over 20,000 billion CNY, creating a potential liquidity gap[2] - The central bank's response in early July will be crucial in determining the continuation of its supportive stance[2] Group 4: Market Indicators - The average bill rate for 1M bills in June was 0.82%, down 30 basis points year-on-year, indicating weaker credit demand compared to last year[4] - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) was 7,264 billion CNY, with a net financing of -3,829 billion CNY during the week of June 23-27[41] - The weighted issuance rate for CDs was 1.64%, reflecting a downward trend in funding costs[40]

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0623-0627） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年6月28日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年6月27日 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 图表6、7：创业板/沪深300相对PE(TTM)、中证500/沪深300相对PE(TTM) 6 6 2.45 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2010-07 201 ...