1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 分析师 证券分析师：王一棠 [Table_Author] 邮箱：wangyt3@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120521080003 | 全球主要市场表现 | | --- | | [Table_Market1] | | | 周涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价 | 周涨跌 | 跌幅 | | | | | (%) | | 日经 225 | 40,150.79 | 1,747.56 | 4.55 | | 纳斯达克指数 | 20,273.46 | 826.05 | 4.25 | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 43,819.27 | 1,612.45 | 3.82 | | 标普 500 | 6,173.07 | 205.23 | 3.44 | | 恒生指数 | 24,284.15 | 753.67 | 3.20 | | 德国 DAX | 24,033.22 | 682.67 | 2.92 | | 墨西哥 MXX | 57,474.19 | 1,209.50 | 2.15 | | 富时新加坡海峡指 数 | 3,966 ...

1. Report industry investment rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core view of the report The real - estate market shows a mixed performance in June 2025. Second - hand housing transactions have a slight month - on - month increase but a continuous year - on - year weakening trend. New housing transactions have a month - on - month rebound mainly due to the end - of - month and end - of - quarter push - sales effect, but the year - on - year performance remains weak [1][2]. 3. Summary according to relevant content Second - hand housing transactions - This week (June 20 - 26), the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 2.4 million square meters, a 3% month - on - month increase and a 4% year - on - year decline. From a monthly perspective, the cumulative year - on - year decline since early June was 1%, while it increased by 4%, 20%, and 38% in May, April, and March respectively [1]. - In terms of city tiers, the weekly transaction area of second - hand housing in first - tier cities has declined for six consecutive weeks, with a 1% week - on - week decline this week. In second - and third - tier cities, it has increased for the third consecutive week, with week - on - week growth rates of 3% and 12% respectively [1][2]. - In key first - tier cities, in the second - hand housing market from June 20 - 26, the weekly transaction area of Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen decreased by 1% week - on - week. Shenzhen and Shanghai decreased by 8% and 3% respectively, while Beijing increased by 5%. Year - on - year, Shanghai and Shenzhen decreased by 23% and 2% respectively in the weekly comparison, and Beijing increased by 4%. From a monthly perspective (June 1 - 26), Beijing and Shenzhen increased by 8% and 11% respectively, while Shanghai decreased by 19% [24]. New housing transactions - This week, the transaction area of new housing in 38 cities was 3.81 million square meters, a 41% month - on - month increase and a 10% year - on - year decline. The month - on - month rebound was mainly due to the end - of - month and end - of - quarter push - sales effect [2]. - In terms of city tiers, the new housing transaction area in first - tier cities increased by 53% week - on - week, with all of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen showing growth, with growth rates of 32%, 84%, 47%, and 1% respectively. In second - tier cities, the decline turned into an increase, with a 52% week - on - week growth rate, and in third - tier cities, it increased for the third consecutive week, with a 16% week - on - week growth rate [3][4]. - In key first - tier cities, from June 20 - 26, the weekly new housing transaction area increased by 53% week - on - week. Year - on - week, Beijing and Shanghai increased by 2% and 11% respectively, while Shenzhen and Guangzhou decreased by 39% and 8% respectively. From a monthly perspective (June 1 - 26), Beijing and Shanghai increased by 4% and 10% respectively, while Shenzhen and Guangzhou decreased by 30% and 16% respectively [24][25]. Housing price observation - From June 16 - 22, the weekly listing prices of second - hand housing in Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by 0.19% and 0.07% respectively month - on - month, while that in Beijing decreased by 0.22%. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, the second - hand housing listing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen all decreased, with declines of 5.8%, 1.0%, and 4.9% respectively [53].

证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 暖冬影响好于悲观预期，存货风险可控 [Table_Title2] 波司登(3998.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 3998 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 4.66/3.58 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 533.34 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 4.62 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 533.34 | | | | 自由流通股数(亿) | 11,544.13 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司 FY24/25 收入/羽绒服收入/归母净利/经营活动现金流为 259.02/216.7/35.14/39.8 亿元，同比增长 11.6%/11%/14.3%/-45.7%，我们分析，虽然受到暖冬影响，收入端仍好于悲观预期，主要增长主要来自加盟端 增长及户外、轻薄羽、防晒服等拓品类贡献。FY24/25 公司其 ...

Market Overview - The stock and bond markets are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight tilt towards the bond market as equity assets take a breather after three consecutive days of gains [2] - Major stock indices showed minor declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 down by 0.22% and 0.35% respectively, while the CSI Dividend Index saw a slight increase of 0.03% [2] - In the bond market, yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds decreased by 1.1 basis points and 1.5 basis points to 1.64% and 1.85% respectively [2] Commodity Performance - Internationally, oil and gold prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, with WTI and Brent crude oil contracts rising by less than 1% [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decline in crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories, indicating a recovery in refining activities and stable end-user consumption [3] - Domestic commodities saw a positive response from the black series due to favorable policies, with coking coal and coke prices increasing by 3.60% and 1.86% respectively [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank is increasingly protective as the quarter-end approaches, with a net injection of 30.58 billion yuan through reverse repos, bringing the total net injection since June 24 to over 70 billion yuan [4][5] - Despite the central bank's efforts, the cost of funds is rising, with the pricing of non-bank 7-day instruments showing an increase [4][5] Equity Market Dynamics - The equity market is experiencing marginal corrections, with the total trading volume decreasing to 1.62 trillion yuan, down 163 billion yuan from the previous day [7] - There is a notable shift in sentiment, with some funds showing profit-taking behavior, as indicated by a net outflow of 3.7 billion yuan from stock ETFs [7][8] - The implied volatility in the market has significantly decreased, suggesting a withdrawal of bullish expectations among investors [8] Sector Performance - The banking sector continues to perform well, with the SW Bank Index rising by 1.01%, while the non-bank financial sector saw a decline of 1.20% [10] - The communication sector also showed strength, with the corresponding SW Index up by 0.77% [10] - The defense and military sector is driven by expectations surrounding the September military parade, with the SW Defense Industry Index increasing by 0.55% [10] Future Outlook - The current market rally is temporarily stalled, but the bullish sentiment remains intact, indicating potential for future rebounds despite the likelihood of adjustments [11] - Structural opportunities may become more significant as the difficulty of betting on index movements increases, with particular attention on consumer goods, military, and technology sectors [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" from "Hold" [5] Core Views - The company has a solid revenue growth trajectory, with a focus on smart display technologies, including smart TVs, interactive displays, and innovative display products [1][15] - The smart TV segment is expected to benefit from emerging market growth, leveraging flexible supply chain advantages [2][50] - The interactive display business is driven by stable core customers and supportive policies, indicating potential for growth [3] - The innovative display segment shows strong revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 90.1% from 2022 to 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 1995, has a diverse product portfolio including smart interactive panels, innovative display products, professional display products, and smart TVs [1][15] - Revenue increased from 6.85 billion to 15.59 billion yuan from 2018 to 2024, with a CAGR of 14.7% [1][28] Smart TV Business - The smart TV segment is a stable revenue source, with revenue growing from 4.236 billion yuan in 2018 to 9.528 billion yuan in 2024, representing a CAGR of 14.5% [53] - The company ranks among the top three in global TV shipments for 2024, with a shipment increase of 12% in the first five months of 2025 [54] - The business primarily serves emerging markets, focusing on small to medium regional brands, which allows for stable margins [59] Interactive Display Business - The interactive display products are mainly sold to major global brands, with significant market shares held by SMART and Promethean [3] - The company has established stable partnerships with leading educational display brands, driving growth in this segment [3] Innovative Display Products - Revenue from innovative display products is projected to grow from 420 million yuan in 2022 to 1.519 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 90.1% [4] - The company is actively developing new products, including high-end OLED screens and AI interactive glasses, enhancing its product matrix [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 17.575 billion, 19.591 billion, and 21.461 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.8%, 11.5%, and 9.5% [8] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.05 billion, 1.27 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 25.8%, 21.2%, and 15.1% [8]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in equity market performance, driven by the participation of stabilizing funds and a growing fear of missing out among investors [2][6][15] - The report highlights a notable rise in major stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 increasing by 1.04% and 1.44% respectively, while the technology sector showed strong performance [2][6] - The report discusses the volatility in oil and gold prices, with oil prices experiencing a sharp decline followed by a slight rebound, reflecting market stabilization [3][4] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3455.97, up by 1.04%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.44% to 3960.07 [1] - The report notes that the technology sector, particularly the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50, saw significant gains of 3.11% and 1.73% respectively [2] - The bond market showed a mixed performance, with long-term bonds underperforming compared to short-term bonds, as indicated by the slight increase in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds [2][6] Market Sentiment and Trends - Market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with a shift towards observing price movements in oil and gold after significant fluctuations [3] - The report mentions that the recent influx of funds into stock ETFs indicates a growing bullish sentiment among investors, as evidenced by the increase in options trading volume [8][9] - Historical comparisons suggest that the current market rally is reminiscent of previous periods where stabilizing funds led to significant upward movements in stock prices [12][14][15] Sector Analysis - The report identifies potential investment opportunities across various sectors, including consumer goods, technology, and military industries, driven by policy expectations and market dynamics [14][15] - It emphasizes the importance of a diversified investment approach, particularly in light of the current market conditions and the potential for volatility [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 120, compared to the latest closing price of HKD 78 [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, is recognized as a rising star in the industry, demonstrating strong learning and innovation capabilities. It has creatively developed a family farm model for pig breeding and fattening, achieving leading breeding results [1][2]. - The company’s service-enabled family farms have increased from 2,011 households at the end of 2020 to 2,608 households by May 2023, with the number expected to grow significantly in the coming years [2]. - The report highlights the company's cost advantages, with a projected total cost of approximately HKD 12.27 per kilogram by April 2025, leading to a per-head profit of HKD 348, positioning it as a leader in the industry [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Family Farm Model - The family farm model is seen as highly viable under the national rural revitalization strategy, providing significant policy advantages and reducing environmental and disease risks compared to large-scale self-breeding operations [3][16]. - The model allows for smaller-scale operations, which are less prone to environmental and disease challenges, thus enhancing overall industry efficiency and supporting rural revitalization [3][22]. 2. Cost Leadership - The company has achieved a leading position in cost control due to its advanced breeding systems, excellent management, and light-asset model, with total costs decreasing consistently over the years [4][35]. - The breeding system has been developed through significant investment and has resulted in the company’s breeding performance ranking first in the nation for certain pig breeds [7][42]. 3. Growth Potential - The report anticipates that the number of family farms served by the company will continue to rise, with projections of 3,275, 4,500, and 6,200 households from 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing transformation in the domestic pig farming industry, positioning itself as a potential growth leader [2][8]. 4. Financial Forecast - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to reach HKD 28.22 billion, HKD 33.75 billion, and HKD 46.32 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of HKD 3.70 billion, HKD 3.67 billion, and HKD 6.97 billion, respectively [11][8]. - The report indicates that the company’s earnings per share (EPS) will be HKD 9.52, HKD 9.43, and HKD 17.92 for the same period, reflecting strong financial performance [11][8].

Market Overview - On June 24, the equity market experienced a significant surge, primarily driven by the ceasefire between Iran and Israel and the participation of stabilizing funds, with notable strength in the non-bank and technology sectors [2][3] - Major stock indices saw broad increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.15%, the CSI 300 by 1.20%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.30% [2] - The bond market continued its upward trend, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising by 0.6 basis points and the 30-year bond by 1.35 basis points [2][4] Oil and Gold Market - Following the ceasefire announcement, market risk aversion decreased sharply, leading to significant declines in oil and gold prices, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil futures dropping by 8.95% and 7.62% respectively [3] - Gold prices also fell, retreating from a high of $3,367 per ounce to around $3,310 per ounce due to reduced geopolitical risks [3] Bond Market Dynamics - The central bank's substantial net injection of liquidity helped stabilize the funding environment as the market entered a cross-quarter week [4] - The overnight funding rates showed a downward trend, with the R001 and DR001 rates remaining stable at 1.44% and 1.37% respectively [4] - The issuance of long-term government bonds saw a slight increase in yield, with the 30-year bond yield rising to 1.85% [6] Equity Market Trends - The A-share market saw a volume increase, with the total trading volume reaching 1.45 trillion yuan, up by 301.1 billion yuan from the previous day [7] - The surge was attributed to the easing of geopolitical tensions and the influx of stabilizing funds, particularly in sectors that had previously underperformed [7] - The market's strong performance suggests a temporary alleviation of the "crisis" sentiment that had been building [7] Sector Performance - The non-bank financial sector saw a notable increase, with the SW Non-Bank Financial Index rising by 2.68%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9] - The Hong Kong market also experienced gains, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.06% and 2.14% respectively [10] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain within a consolidation framework established since mid-May, with potential upward pressure from profit-taking sentiments [8] - The upcoming military parade on September 3 may also influence market sentiment, particularly in sectors related to defense and technology [10]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：主线未明 [Table_Title2] 复盘与思考: 6 月 23 日，权益行情迎来反弹，银行和小微盘显著上涨，"哑铃型"的市场结构再度回归；债市收益率先下 后上，整体延续窄幅震荡格局，各期限单日变化不到 0.5bp。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，大盘股指翻红，上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利分别上涨 0.65%、0.29%、 0.25%；国内科技板块小幅反弹，科创 50、创业板指分别上涨 0.38%、0.39%，港股的恒生科技上涨 1.05%；小微 盘明显上涨，中证 1000、万得微盘股指上涨 1.31%、2.38%。债市，10 年国债活跃券收益率小幅上行 0.2bp，30 年国债活跃券持平于 1.84%；10 年、30 年国债期货主力合约小幅下跌 0.01%、0.04%。 中东地缘政治局势继续扰动国际大宗商品市场，原油价格高开低走，黄金表现平淡。周日（6 月 22 日）， "美国攻击伊朗核设施"及"伊朗议会提议关闭霍尔木兹海峡"等消息持续发酵，全球避险情绪一度急剧升温。 受此推动，今日开盘后美国 WTI 原油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since May 2025, the high - valuation transactions of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds in the secondary market have been active, with yields rising by over 20bp at one point. This is mainly due to concerns that Shenzhen Metro's frequent support for Vanke may lead to significant losses in equity investment and drag down its creditworthiness [2][12]. - Real estate - related public opinions may disrupt the valuation of urban investment bonds. After the market digests the impact, the credit spreads usually compress. For example, the public opinions related to Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. and Evergrande and Cedar Industries have affected its bond spreads [2][30]. - The trading of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds has stabilized. Given its strong regional economic and financial strength, relatively low credit risk, and higher static yields compared to other municipal subway platforms, there is an opportunity for its long - term bond valuation to recover. Investors with stable liability ends can gradually participate [3][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Long - term Bonds with High - valuation Transactions are Active, and Yields Rise by Over 20bp at One Point - From May to June 2025, the number of high - valuation transactions of Shenzhen Metro's bonds in the secondary market reached a record high. In May 2025, there were 65 high - valuation transactions out of 133 total transactions, and as of June 20, there were 144 high - valuation transactions out of 259 total transactions [12]. - Structurally, the high - valuation amplitude of long - term bonds is larger. From April to May 2025, the average deviation of bonds within 5 years from the valuation was within 1bp, while for those over 10 years, it was 2.1bp and 10.86bp respectively [15]. - The average transaction price and term of Shenzhen Metro's bonds have increased rapidly in the past month. From May 20 to June 17, 2025, the average transaction price rose from 1.69% to 2.42%, and the average transaction term increased from 0.9 years to 10.58 years [19]. - Frequent high - valuation transactions have caused the yields of Shenzhen Metro's long - term bonds to rise by over 20bp. Compared with the beginning of the year, the yields of 5 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, and 20 - year sample bonds have risen by 11bp, 18bp, 18bp, and 13bp respectively [22]. - The reason for the rise in yields is that some institutional investors are worried that Shenzhen Metro's frequent support for Vanke may lead to significant losses in equity investment and drag down its creditworthiness. In 2025, Shenzhen Metro plans to provide about 15 billion yuan in loans to Vanke, and in April 2025, it announced a net profit loss of 33.5 billion yuan, mainly due to losses in its long - term equity investment in Vanke [25]. 3.2 Real Estate Public Opinions May Disrupt the Valuation of Urban Investment Bonds, and Spreads Usually Compress after Market Digestion - The real estate industry accounts for a relatively high proportion of Guangdong's GDP. From 2022, many Guangdong - based private real estate enterprises have defaulted on their debts, and some urban investment platforms have been involved in real - estate - related public opinions [30]. - For example, Guangzhou Urban Construction Investment Group Co., Ltd. has public opinions related to Evergrande and Cedar Industries. In 2020 - 2021, it paid 10 billion yuan to acquire 4.8072% of Evergrande's equity, and in 2022, its subsidiary's investment in Cedar Industries' debt financing plan defaulted with an amount of 6 billion yuan. The public opinions have affected the spreads of its sample bonds [34]. - Real - estate - related public opinions can cause the credit spreads of urban investment bonds to widen rapidly, and if there are no new public opinions, the impact may last for 2 - 3 months. After the market digests the impact, the spreads usually narrow quickly, and the market's pricing of public opinions will become less sensitive [42]. 3.3 Transactions are Stabilizing, and Attention Should be Paid to the Valuation Recovery Opportunity of Shenzhen Metro's Long - term Bonds - Shenzhen Metro is wholly - owned by the Shenzhen State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Its business has strong public welfare attributes, and the region has strong economic and financial strength. The support from its shareholders is potentially strong. Its support for Vanke is within an acceptable range, and its bond maturities are relatively dispersed, with relatively low credit risk [42]. - Since March 2025, the yields of Shenzhen Metro's short - term bonds have declined, while those of long - term bonds have risen, resulting in a significant widening of the term spread. After more than two months of adjustment, the trading of long - term bonds has stabilized [49]. - From a static yield perspective, Shenzhen Metro's bonds have higher yields compared to other municipal subway platforms. Its current yield curve is steeper than in early May, with higher riding returns. The long - term yields of urban investment bonds with an implied rating of AAA are at the lowest quantiles since 2021, while the yields of Shenzhen Metro's 8 - 10 - year bonds are 2.35%, indicating good value [56][62].