2025 年 06 月 09 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：53 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 53 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：人工智能、机器人、无人驾驶 1、人工智能主题：OpenAI 日前宣布以 65 亿美元全股收 购由苹果前首席设计师 JonyIve 创立的 AI 硬件初创公司 io，并计划推出一款革命性的 AI"伴侣"设备，目标在 2026 年底前发货 1 亿台。这款设备旨在成为一款环境感知智能 体，可放置在口袋或书桌上，通过多模态 AI 无缝融入用户日 常生活。相关标的：荣信文化(301231)、汤姆猫(300459) 2、机器人主题：据"中科院之声"消息，中国科学院沈 阳自动化研究所日前研发了一套"刚柔耦合"的下肢多关节 康复外骨骼机器人，有望为下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire Zhongxin Ningbo, aiming to build a full industry chain capability of "chip design + wafer processing" [1][6]. - In 2024, the company experienced a significant revenue decline of 53.26% due to market demand slowdown and intensified competition, but managed to achieve a slight profit increase of 1.13% in net profit [5]. - The company has a diverse chip design capability and has launched various chips with core proprietary intellectual property in multiple fields [6]. - The acquisition of Zhongxin Ningbo is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in high-end BAW filter manufacturing and expand its presence in the RF front-end industry [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 197,789.18 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.26%, while net profit reached 9,715.47 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.13% [5]. - The overall gross margin improved to 26.29%, an increase of 13.85 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - R&D investment for 2024 was 67,532.16 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 10.26% year-on-year [5]. Business Strategy - The company is transitioning towards a full industry chain model by integrating chip design and wafer processing capabilities through the acquisition of Zhongxin Ningbo [6]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with leading mobile communication terminal companies, enhancing its market position in the RF front-end sector [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 23.35 billion yuan, 28.04 billion yuan, and 35.23 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.58, 1.00, and 1.32 yuan [9]. - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 147, 86, and 65 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9].

2025 年 06 月 08 日 海外 AI 公司频超预期，中外 AI 共振时代到来 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：臧天律 | S1050522120001 | | zangtl@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电力设备(申万) -1.1 -8.5 7.3 沪深 300 0.5 -1.8 8.4 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电力设备行业周报：人形机器 人催化不断，光伏价格理性回落》 2025-05-27 2、《电力设备行业周报：腾讯资本 开支高增，AI 智能体产业持续发 展》2025-05-19 3、《电力设备行业周报：OpenAI 计 划加大海外投资，持续看好 AIDC 环 节》2025-05-12 ▌海外 AI 公司频超预期，中外 AI 共振时代到来 伴随 AI 扩散法则的废除，本周海外 AI 公司如 Credo（纳斯 达克股 ...

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 传媒 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 关注 AI 应用撬动传媒新增量 即梦 AI 月活超 3000 万 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：朱珠 | | S1050521110001 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | | | | | 行业相对表现 | | | | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 传媒(申万) | 3.4 | -3.8 | 33.0 | | 沪深 300 | 0.7 | -1.8 | 8.4 | | 市场表现 | | | | 相关研究 2025 年 06 月 09 日 1、《传媒行业动态研究报告：2025 年端午单日票房同比增 30%电影院线 布局新业务可期》2025-06-02 2、《传媒行业动态研究报告： 52TOYS 递表看 IP 撬动潮玩及渠道新 增量》2025-05-25 3、《传媒行业周报：政策护航持续 护航 AI 应用与可选消费双轮驱动》 2025-05-18 ▌ AI 应用从硬件到内容均可看 商业化持续 2G2B2C 均 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company plans to acquire Zhongxin Ningbo to build a full industry chain capability of "chip design + wafer processing" [1][6] - In 2024, the company experienced a significant revenue decline of 53.26% due to market demand slowdown and intensified competition, but managed to achieve a slight profit increase of 1.13% [5] - The company has a diverse chip design capability and aims to transition to a full industry chain model post-acquisition [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 197,789.18 million yuan, a decrease of 53.26% year-on-year [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9,715.47 million yuan, an increase of 1.13% year-on-year, with an overall gross margin of 26.29%, up by 13.85 percentage points [5] - R&D investment reached 67,532.16 million yuan in 2024, growing by 10.26% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for future high-quality development [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company possesses multiple chip design capabilities and has launched various chips in fields such as ultra-high-definition smart displays, AI, automotive electronics, and IoT [6] - The acquisition of Zhongxin Ningbo, a leading domestic semiconductor wafer foundry, is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in chip design and wafer processing [6][8] Market Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 23.35 billion yuan, 28.04 billion yuan, and 35.23 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.58, 1.00, and 1.32 yuan [9][11] - The projected growth rates for revenue are 18.1%, 20.1%, and 25.6% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]

2025 年 06 月 08 日 海外 AI 公司频超预期，中外 AI 共振时代到来 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：臧天律 | S1050522120001 | | zangtl@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电力设备(申万) -1.1 -8.5 7.3 沪深 300 0.5 -1.8 8.4 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 (%) 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电力设备行业周报：人形机器 人催化不断，光伏价格理性回落》 2025-05-27 2、《电力设备行业周报：腾讯资本 开支高增，AI 智能体产业持续发 展》2025-05-19 3、《电力设备行业周报：OpenAI 计 划加大海外投资，持续看好 AIDC 环 节》2025-05-12 ▌海外 AI 公司频超预期，中外 AI 共振时代到来 伴随 AI 扩散法则的废除，本周海外 AI 公司如 Credo（纳斯 达克股 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the government aiming to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The fiscal policy is front - loaded, and the monetary policy is generally neutral. The stock - bond ratio is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is trending towards value. The report recommends a portfolio of the dividend index (40% position), the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [6][15][21] - The performance of the US economy is closely watched, especially whether and when the quarterly real GDP growth rate will fall below the trend level. The current situation in the US is similar to that during the burst of the Internet bubble in 2001 [6] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. A + H dividend - type stocks with characteristics of non - expansion, good profitability, and survival are recommended [7][15][63] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In April 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 9.0%, up from 8.7% previously, in line with expectations. It is expected to stabilize around 9.0% in May and then decline. By the end of the year, it is projected to drop to around 8% [1][16] - Last week, the financial sector's capital situation eased marginally, but a monthly high may occur. The government's debt (including national and local bonds) increased by 219.5 billion yuan last week (higher than the planned 128.3 billion yuan). The planned increase this week is 176.2 billion yuan. The government's liability growth rate was 14.8% at the end of April 2025, up from 13.9% previously, and is expected to stabilize around 14.8% in May and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year [2][17] 3.1.2 Monetary Policy - Last week, the capital trading volume increased week - on - week, the capital price decreased, and the term spread widened. After excluding seasonal effects, the capital situation eased marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield trended downwards, closing at 1.41% at the weekend. The estimated lower bound of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds widened to 24 basis points. The estimated central level of the term spread is adjusted downwards to 40 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the ten - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.7%. The central level of the spread between the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds is estimated at 20 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.9% [2][17] 3.1.3 Asset Side - In April, the physical - quantity data weakened compared to March. The 2025 government work report set the annual real economic growth target at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target at around 4.9% when calculated backwards from the deficit and deficit ratio. It remains to be seen whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][18] 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation eased marginally, resulting in a bull market for both stocks and bonds, with the growth style outperforming expectations. Bond yields declined across the board, and the stock - bond ratio shifted towards stocks. The ten - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.65%, the one - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 5 basis points to 1.41%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.88% [5][20] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio trends towards bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance than value - type equity assets. If value - type equity assets continue to fall, a good entry opportunity may emerge [6][21] 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with increased volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.32%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, composites, and computers had the largest increases, while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [27] 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 6, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computers, pharmaceutical biology, machinery and equipment, and power equipment, with crowding levels of 10.4%, 9.8%, 7.9%, 7.2%, and 7% respectively. The bottom five were composites, steel, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and beauty care, with levels of 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.7% respectively [30] - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, basic chemicals, and computers, with increases of 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.4%, 1%, and 0.4% respectively. The bottom five with decreased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, automobiles, machinery and equipment, environmental protection, and banks, with changes of - 1.9%, - 1.7%, - 0.9%, - 0.7%, and - 0.6% respectively [30] - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 1.2 trillion yuan, up from 1.09 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were social services, non - bank finance, building materials, media, and non - ferrous metals, while composites, commercial retail, petroleum and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and machinery and equipment had the smallest increases [31] 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, electronics, non - ferrous metals, composites, and computers had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [35] - As of June 6, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [36] 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI in May fell from 49.8 to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMI of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 3.34% week - on - week. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then dropped to - 1.3% in May. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 21% in April to 20.7% in May [40] - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries in March 2025 rose to a relatively high level in history, declined significantly in April, and rebounded slightly in May. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home trading volume remained at a historical low, and second - hand housing trading volume declined significantly compared to the historical seasonality [40] 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of June (June 3 - 6), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 3.6%, 2.8%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.9% [57] - As of June 6, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.46 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [57] 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [7][63]

2025 年 06 月 09 日 关注 AI 应用撬动传媒新增量 即梦 AI 月活超 3000 万 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：朱珠 | | S1050521110001 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | | | | | 行业相对表现 | | | | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 传媒(申万) | 3.4 | -3.8 | 33.0 | | 沪深 300 | 0.7 | -1.8 | 8.4 | | 市场表现 | | | | -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 传媒 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《传媒行业动态研究报告：2025 年端午单日票房同比增 30%电影院线 布局新业务可期》2025-06-02 2、《传媒行业动态研究报告： 52TOYS 递表看 IP 撬动潮玩及渠道新 增量》2025-05-25 3、《传媒行业周报：政策护航持续 护航 AI 应用与可选消费双轮驱动》 2025-05-18 ▌ AI 应用从硬件到内容均可看 商业化持续 2G2B2C 均 ...

-20 0 20 40 60 80 (%) 计算机 沪深300 2025 年 06 月 06 日 DeepSeek R1-0528 升级，字节扣子空间上线一 键转播客功能 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 计算机(申万) -1.1 -14.8 43.2 沪深 300 1.8 -2.0 7.9 市场表现 ▌AI 应用： Gemini 平均访问量环比 +19.39%， 字节 扣子空间上线一键转播客功能 5 月 27 日，字节跳动旗下的 AI 协同办公平台扣子空间推出了 全新功能模块——播客音频生成，标志其打通了"文本—代 码—音视频"的全流程。 其次，与初代 R1 相比，DeepSeek-R1-0528 的幻觉率降低了 45%-50%。尤其是，在改写润色、总结摘要、阅读理解等场景 中，新模型能提供更加准确、可靠的结果。而且，DeepSeek- R1 还专门针对论文、小说、散文等问题，进行了进一步优 化。由此，它能够输出篇幅更长、结构内容更完整的长篇大 作，更加贴近人类偏好的写作风格。 资料来源：Wind ...

2025 年 06 月 06 日 DeepSeek R1-0528 升级，字节扣子空间上线一 键转播客功能 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 计算机(申万) -1.1 -14.8 43.2 沪深 300 1.8 -2.0 7.9 市场表现 -20 0 20 40 60 80 (%) 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《计算机行业点评报告：英伟达 （NVDA.O）：英伟达财报超预期， APU+AI 驱动稳健增长》2025-06-05 2、《计算机行业点评报告：苹果 （AAPL.O）：硬件服务双线稳增， 研发协同优化盈利》2025-06-05 3、《计算机行业点评报告：特斯拉 （TSLA.O）：短期盈利承压显著， 长期 AI+能源双擎驱动技术领航》 2025-05-30 ▌算力： 算力租赁价格略有波动， DeepSeek R1- 0528 升级 5 月 29 日，DeepSeek 正式官宣 R1 已完成小版本升级，开启 「深度思考」功能即可体验。在多项基准测试中，Dee ...