Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media and internet industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the robust performance of major Hong Kong internet companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and JD, highlighting the integration of AI into their business models and the strategic adjustments within their organizational structures [4][5] - There is a growing focus on the "Guzi Economy" and the expansion of companies into the collectible toy sector, suggesting a high growth potential in card games and collectible toys [4][6] - The report suggests continuous attention to the development of AI applications in gaming, particularly in enhancing user experience and commercial viability [7][8] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The media industry saw a decline of 0.77% from May 12 to May 16, 2025, ranking 29th among all industries [13] - In the same period, the digital media, advertising, and television broadcasting sectors performed better, while gaming, film, and publishing sectors lagged [14] Company Financials - Tencent reported Q1 2025 revenue of RMB 1800.2 billion, a 13% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit of RMB 1004.9 billion, up 20% [26] - JD's Q1 2025 revenue reached RMB 3011 billion, reflecting a 15.8% year-on-year growth [25] - Alibaba's Q1 2025 revenue was RMB 2364.54 billion, a 7% increase, with a net profit of RMB 119.73 billion, up 1203% [28] AI and Gaming - The report highlights the potential of AI in gaming, with companies like Giant Network exploring AI-driven gameplay enhancements [21][29] - The integration of AI in gaming is expected to create new opportunities for user engagement and revenue growth [7][8] Film and Television - The report notes the upcoming release of significant films and suggests monitoring the performance of production companies and cinema chains [7][8] - The total box office for the week of May 12-17 was RMB 142.68 million, with "Water Dumpling Queen" leading the box office [38] Trends in Collectible Toys - Companies are increasingly focusing on the collectible toy market, with notable expansions in IP development and product offerings [6][8] - The report recommends monitoring companies involved in card games and collectible toys for potential investment opportunities [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig price is expected to remain weak in the short term, with an overall supply surplus anticipated for the year, leading to a bearish outlook on prices [2][15] - The report suggests a shift from "cyclical thinking" to focusing on "quality and price" in investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency among different companies [4][16] - The outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil is expected to impact chicken prices positively in the domestic market, while the industry is seeing a concentration of profit margins towards upstream sources [5][17] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is reported at 14.58 CNY/kg, with an average weight of 129.71 kg for market pigs. The price for 15 kg piglets is 630 CNY/head, and the price difference for 175 kg market pigs has decreased to 0.36 CNY/kg [3][15] - The number of breeding sows in March was 40.39 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a decrease of 0.96% from the end of 2024, indicating a stable production capacity [3][15] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, due to their strong profit certainty in 2025 [4][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil may lead to trade bans, which could support a rebound in domestic chicken prices. The current price for broiler chickens is 7.4 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous month [5][17] - The report identifies two main investment lines: high-return quality imported breeding stock and comprehensive industry leaders like San Nong Development [5][17] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The fish prices have increased, while feed prices have decreased, indicating a recovery in aquaculture profitability [6][19] - The report notes that the capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [7][19] 4. Pet Industry - In April 2025, the sales figures for pet food showed a decline, with cat and dog food sales at 810 million CNY and 380 million CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 4.7% and 6.2% [9][20] - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands like Mai Fudi and the growth of companies like Zhongchong, which are gaining market share [10][24] 5. Agricultural Products - The report indicates that domestic agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, with a potential upward trend in prices due to reduced imports. The forecast for corn imports has been adjusted down to 7 million tons for the 2024/2025 period [11][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural stocks as a defensive asset class, suggesting that the sector is currently undervalued [11][26] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3889 points, up 1.12% from the previous week, while the agriculture index rose slightly by 0.05% to 2621 points [27][29] - The report notes that the pet food sector performed the best among sub-sectors, with a significant increase of 10.93% [27][29]

Market Overview - The functional beverage market in China is projected to grow from CNY 111.9 billion in 2019 to CNY 166.5 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 8.3%[3] - The electrolyte beverage segment, part of the functional beverage category, is gaining traction due to increased fitness awareness, with the proportion of people regularly exercising expected to rise from 37.2% in 2020 to 38.5% by 2025[3][18] Company Performance - Kangbiter, a key player in the sports nutrition sector, reported a revenue of CNY 1.04 billion in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 23.34%[31] - The company's net profit for 2024 was CNY 89.31 million, with gross and net profit margins of 39.41% and 8.60%, respectively[31] Stock Market Trends - The median stock price change for the North Exchange consumer service sector was +3.71% from May 12 to May 16, 2025, with 80% of the 35 tracked companies experiencing gains[35] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange consumer service sector increased from CNY 112.2 billion to CNY 119.4 billion during the same period[40] Valuation Metrics - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the food and beverage sector rose from 50.3X to 56.9X, indicating a positive market sentiment[46] - The overall P/E ratio for the broader consumer sector increased from 65.6X to 67.8X, reflecting strong investor interest[44] Industry Insights - The energy drink segment is the largest within the functional beverage market, expected to account for 66.9% of the total functional beverage sales by 2024, with a retail value of CNY 111.4 billion[10] - Domestic brands dominate the electrolyte beverage market, with significant competition from established players like Nongfu Spring and new entrants like Yuanqi Forest[23][24]

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 18 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 联系人 陈轩 板块表现： 中美关税"降级"催化，成本支撑叠加库存去化，铝价大涨 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/5/12-2025/5/16） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：铜价维持震荡，等待后续宏观催化。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +0.86%/+0.89%/-1.34%，本周一中美发布经贸会谈联合声明，实现对等关税"降级"， 受此催化全球商品价格反弹，沪铜一度反弹至 7.9 万元/吨，后续逐步回落至 7.8 万 元/吨。基本 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The public utility sector is expected to benefit significantly from new trends, particularly due to the recent changes in fund management regulations that emphasize the importance of the "return-risk ratio" [10][12] - The demand for flexible resources in the new power system is driving the growth of energy storage installations, supported by continuous improvements in revenue mechanisms for energy storage stations [6][25] - The report highlights the strong performance of hydropower companies in terms of return-risk ratios, with major players like Yangtze Power and Huaneng Hydropower ranking in the top percentiles of the A-share market [11][12] Summary by Sections Public Utilities - The report suggests increasing allocation to public utilities and power equipment due to the new fund regulations [4][9] - The public utility sector is identified as a major beneficiary of the recent policy changes, which are expected to enhance valuation trends [10][12] Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage utilization is improving, with a total installed capacity of 2.55 GW/5.72 GWh added in Q1 2025 [18] - The report notes that energy storage export orders have surged, with a year-on-year increase of 756.72% in Q1 2025, approaching a total of 100 GWh [25] - Key measures in Shandong province aim to enhance energy storage profitability, including widening the price difference for charging and discharging, and reducing operational costs [5][22] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on resilient hydropower companies and undervalued thermal power operators benefiting from declining coal prices [13] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include: - Hydropower: Guotou Power, Yangtze Power, ChuanTou Energy - Wind Power: Longyuan Power, Goldwind Technology, Datang Renewable - Thermal Power: Anhui Energy, Shanghai Electric, Huaneng International [13]

Group 1 - The report highlights the second adjustment of the North Exchange 50 Index in 2025, effective on June 16, 2025, with potential new additions including Lierda, Tongguan Mining Construction, Wanda Bearings, Juxing Technology, and Yinuowei [4][10][12] - The report discusses the revision of restructuring rules by the North Exchange, introducing a "small-scale fast" review mechanism and simplified review procedures, aimed at enhancing the efficiency of mergers and acquisitions for innovative SMEs [7][8][9] - The overall PE ratio of North Exchange A-shares has rebounded to 51X, with average daily trading volume increasing to 349 billion yuan, indicating improved market sentiment [17][20] Group 2 - The report suggests that institutional investors in the North Exchange market should adopt a cautious approach, focusing on long-term stable growth companies and sectors aligned with national policies such as "self-control" and innovation-driven development [14] - Key sectors to watch include high-end manufacturing, infrastructure with high dividends, and specialty consumer industries, as well as recent hot themes like AI and robotics [14] - The report notes that the North Exchange 50 Index has increased by 3.13% this week, outperforming other indices, with a year-to-date increase of 37% [22][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, credit spreads in different industries were compressed to varying degrees, mainly due to the passive compression caused by the upward movement of the risk - free rate, and the adjustment of credit bonds may not have arrived yet [1][29][32]. - For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities were compressed this week, and maintaining a short - end sinking coupon strategy still has a relative advantage [1][38]. - For industrial bonds, the credit spreads of industrial bonds were generally compressed this week. In the current environment, a defensive approach is still recommended, and attention should be paid to the coupon income of high - grade short - duration industrial bonds [1][29][38]. - For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank capital bonds with different ratings and maturities were generally compressed this week, with a small number of maturities and varieties slightly widening. It is recommended to continue to focus on short - duration and highly liquid bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds for defense [1][32][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Overview - **Primary Market**: This week, the issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of credit bonds increased compared with last week. The issuance rates of AAA - rated urban investment bonds and AA + - rated industrial bonds increased, while the issuance rates of other bonds decreased to varying degrees [3][6][10]. - **Secondary Market**: This week, the trading volume of credit bonds increased by 335 billion yuan compared with last week, and the turnover rate of traditional credit bonds generally increased. The yields of credit bonds showed a trend of short - end decline and long - end increase. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank capital bonds were generally compressed, with a small number of bank capital bond maturities and varieties slightly widening [3][13][14]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale**: This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 77.3 billion yuan, an increase of 56.3 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 2.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.2 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 45.6 billion yuan, an increase of 300 million yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 34.3 billion yuan, an increase of 78.1 billion yuan [6]. - **Issuance Cost**: This week, the issuance rates of AAA - rated urban investment bonds and AA + - rated industrial bonds increased, while the issuance rates of other bonds decreased to varying degrees. The issuance rate of AA - rated urban investment bonds decreased the most, by 44 BP compared with last week [10][12][13]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 335 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased by 30.3 billion yuan, 113.6 billion yuan, and 191.1 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume of asset - backed securities increased by 7.6 billion yuan [13]. - **Turnover Rate**: This week, the turnover rate of credit bonds generally increased compared with last week. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, financial bonds, and asset - backed securities increased by 0.19 pct, 0.67 pct, 1.36 pct, and 0.22 pct respectively [14]. - **Yield**: This week, the yields of credit bonds showed a trend of short - end decline and long - end increase. The yields of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year decreased by 4 - 6 BP, those with a maturity of 1 - 3 years decreased by 2 - 4 BP, and those with a maturity of 3 - 5 years fluctuated by no more than 1 BP. The yields of credit bonds with a maturity of 5 - 7 years, 7 - 10 years, and over 10 years increased by 0 - 5 BP [18]. - **Credit Spread**: - **Industry - wide**: This week, credit spreads in different industries were compressed to varying degrees. The spreads of the AA + electronics industry and the AAA agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry were significantly compressed [21]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities were compressed. The credit spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, 5 - 10Y, and over 10Y urban investment bonds were compressed by 6 BP, 8 BP, 7 BP, 5 BP, and 2 BP respectively [25]. - **Industrial Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of industrial bonds were generally compressed. The credit spreads of 10Y private placement industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds of different ratings were compressed by 1 - 2 BP compared with last week, while the compression of other maturities was 5 BP or more [29]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of bank capital bonds with different ratings and maturities were generally compressed, with a small number of maturities and varieties slightly widening [32]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinion - The "23 Xinjie 01" issued by Xinjie Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. was extended; the "H20 Technology 1" issued by Wuhan Contemporary Technology Investment Co., Ltd. was extended; Xi'an Qujiang Cultural Holding Co., Ltd. was put on the watch list, and its "20 Quwengkong Bond 01" and "21 Quwengkong Bond 01" were also put on the watch list; the "Shengxun Convertible Bond" issued by Beijing Shengxun Electronic Co., Ltd. was put on the watch list [1][37]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - For urban investment bonds, maintain a short - end sinking coupon strategy [1][38]. - For industrial bonds, adopt a defensive approach and focus on the coupon income of high - grade short - duration industrial bonds [1][29][38]. - For bank capital bonds, focus on short - duration and highly liquid bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds for defense [1][32][38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The shipping industry is experiencing a surge in demand due to a recent temporary reduction in tariffs between China and the US, leading to a significant increase in shipping volumes on the US route. The average booking volume surged by 277% compared to the previous week [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 10.0% week-on-week, indicating a strong recovery in shipping rates, particularly for routes to the US [6] - The logistics sector is showing resilience, with express delivery volumes in April increasing by 19.1% year-on-year, reflecting robust demand across various sectors [9] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance favoring growth in the sector [12] Summary by Sections Shipping Vessels - The recent tariff reductions have led to a surge in demand for shipping services, particularly on the US route, with a projected increase in freight rates over the next 2-3 months due to supply constraints [5] - The average weekly capacity for the US route is expected to be 500,000 TEU, down 6% from last year [5] - The oil tanker market is facing supply tightness due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, which is expected to sustain high demand in the coming years [12] Express Logistics - In April, the express delivery industry in China saw a business volume of 16.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with revenue reaching 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [9] - The concentration index for express delivery brands (CR8) was 86.7, indicating a stable competitive landscape [9] Aviation and Airports - The airline industry is poised for growth due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with key companies to watch including China Southern Airlines and Air China [12] - The passenger transport volume in March was approximately 59 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [50] Overall Market Performance - From May 12 to May 16, the transportation index rose by 2.12%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [17] - The shipping sector saw the highest increase at 7.42%, indicating strong market performance [17]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold price has experienced fluctuations recently, with London spot gold decreasing by 2.05% to $3182.95 per ounce, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold down by 3.65% to ¥751.80 per gram. Meanwhile, the holding volume of Shanghai gold increased by 5.68% to 437,100 lots [6][11] - The recent price movements are attributed to the easing of tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which have led to a temporary pullback in gold prices. Key factors include the US-China joint statement on tariff adjustments and ongoing negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][7] - The Federal Reserve may reshape its monetary policy framework, with Chairman Powell indicating potential challenges for the US economy and the Fed. The expectation of interest rate cuts and the continuation of tax reduction policies are anticipated to provide strong momentum for gold prices [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - Recent price changes include a 2.05% drop in London spot gold to $3182.95 per ounce and a 3.65% decrease in Shanghai gold to ¥751.80 per gram. Silver and platinum also saw slight declines, while palladium increased by 1.05% to $964 per ounce [11][12] 2. US Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report highlights the importance of upcoming US economic data, including the May PMI and core PCE price index, which will be crucial for assessing the economic landscape and potential impacts on gold prices [6][7] 3. Positioning and Trading Volume - The holding volume for Shanghai gold rose by 5.68% to 437,100 lots, indicating increased market activity despite the price declines [11] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The domestic gold price difference from international prices decreased, with the gold price gap at ¥10.46 per gram, down by ¥17.97 from two weeks prior [60] 5. Futures Basis Situation - The international gold basis (spot-futures) is reported at -$22.35 per ounce, a decrease of $24.65 from two weeks ago, indicating a shift in market dynamics [69]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the long-term value of wind power operators despite short-term performance drag due to market entry challenges [5][7] - The company has shown a revenue increase of 0.93% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but net profit decreased by 4.44% due to falling electricity prices and increased depreciation [7] - The report highlights the company's strong growth in power generation, with a 9.26% increase in total generation in Q1 2025, driven by new installations and favorable wind conditions [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 12,802 million RMB - 2024: 12,576 million RMB - 2025E: 13,987 million RMB (11.2% growth) - 2026E: 14,770 million RMB (5.6% growth) - 2027E: 15,480 million RMB (4.8% growth) [6][8] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 2,240 million RMB - 2024: 1,925 million RMB - 2025E: 2,317 million RMB (20.4% growth) - 2026E: 2,457 million RMB (6.1% growth) - 2027E: 2,522 million RMB (2.6% growth) [6][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.32 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.5 [6][8] Market Position and Outlook - The company has a total market capitalization of 16,147.62 million HKD and a circulating market capitalization of 5,552.38 million HKD [3] - The report indicates that the company’s receivables are approximately 1.54 times its current market value, reflecting strong recognition from state-owned insurance capital [7] - The report expresses optimism regarding the long-term value of wind power operators, citing advantages over solar power in terms of output and operational cycles [7]