交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 16 日 | | | 三个月 | 年初至 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 今升跌 | | 布兰特 | 64.93 | -20.85 | -12.94% | | 期金 | 3,204.80 | 18.15 | 21.89 | | 期银 | 32.28 | 7.62 | 11.66 | | 期铜 | 9,145.00 | 1.39 | 5.04 | | 日圆 | 142.73 | 9.52 | 10.11 | | 英镑 | 1.32 | 8.05 | 5.76 | | 欧元 | 1.13 | 9.92 | 9.40 | | 基点变动 | | 三个月 六个月 | | | HIBOR | 4.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 美国10年债息 yield | 4.34 | -6.67 | 7.64 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | | | 今日焦点 | 恒指技术走势 | | | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 21,466.27 | | 50 天平均线 | 23,045.66 | | 200 ...

市场策略 港股周报 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852)37661849 钱昊 Alan.Qian@bocomgroup.com (852)37661853 2025年4月16日 "对等关税"反复，港股稳住阵脚 新一轮关税冲击超预期， 4月7日亚太市场普遍遭遇"黑色星期一"，中国资产展现韧性： 宏观不确定因素持续存在背景下，短期风险资产面临调整。尽管如此，我们认为港股市场仍具备结构性支撑： 2025年4月16日 2 • 美方"对等关税"出台后，我国对等反制，并多措并举维护资本市场稳定。受特朗普新一轮"对等关税"冲击影响，亚太市场 普遍历经大幅回调。港股跟随全球主要股指调整，4月7日单日调整近3000点。港股在经历调整后展现了较强的韧性，主要 得益于多方面支持。在中国对美国"对等关税"做出对等反制后，中国央行等部门积极表态给予资本市场支持。以中央汇金为 代表的中国版"平准基金"入市，托底资本市场，加上百家国企积极增持和回购，迅速稳定了市场走势，并增强了市场信心。 同时，南向资金逆流而上，持续净买入，港股走势企稳。 • "对等关税"政策反复仍将持续扰动资本市场。特朗普上周宣布暂缓对等关 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 汽车 2025 年 4 月 15 日 九号公司 (689009 CH) 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 人民币 57.70 人民币 67.73↑ +17.4% 两轮车和机器人业务表现亮眼， 高分红彰显发展信心；维持买入 2024 年九号公司收入 142.0 亿元，同比增38.9%；归母净利润 10.8 亿元，同比 增 81.3%，基本符合业绩预告。渠道优化和新国标落地后，我们预计公司两轮 车的市场份额有望进一步提升。我们看好公司的产品力，机器人和全地形车 有望驱动公司长期成长，维持买入评级。 盈利预测变动 | | | ———— 2025E ———— | | | ———— 2026E ———— | | | ———— 2027E ———— | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (人民币百万) | 新预测 | 前预测 | 变动 | 新预测 | 前预测 | 变动 | 新预测 | 前预测 | 变动 | | 营业收入 | 18,873 | 18,890 | 0% | 23,147 | 22,971 | ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 15 日 今日焦点 万丽, CFA, FRM wanli@bocomgroup.com 新增贷款超市场预期，居民部门和企业部门信贷需求均呈回升态势。3 月新增人民币贷款 3.64 万亿元，同比多增 5500 亿元，好于市场预期， 同比多增主要来自企业短期贷款。 3 月新增社融 5.88 万亿元，好于市场预期，同比多增主要来自政府债券 和贷款。 M1 增速显著回升，M2 增速保持稳定，社融增速保持环比提升势头。 3 月新增贷款和社融均超出市场预期，信贷需求呈回升态势。在当前外 需面临波动的背景下，内需将在经济增长中发挥更重要的作用，我们预 计后续仍有较为充足的政策空间，进一步加大对内需的支持。 | 电池行业月报 | | --- | | 1 季度电池供需两旺；受关税影响储能电池对美 | | 出口短期存波动 | | 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com | 银行业 新增贷款和社融均超预期，M1 增速回升 2025 年 1 季度电池供需两旺，动力电池装车量同比增 52.8%。1Q25，中 国动力和其他电池合计产量/销量为 326.3/285.8GWh， ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 电池行业月报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 1 季度电池供需两旺；受关税影响储能电池对美出口短期存波动 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 4/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 行业表现 恒生指数 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 2025 年 1 季度电池供需两旺，动力电池装车量同比增 52.8%。根据中国汽 车动力电池产业创新联盟数据，1Q25，中国动力和其他电池合计产量/销 量为 326.3/285.8GWh，分别同比增长 74.9%/73.7%；期内动力电池累计装 车量 130.2GWh，同比+52.8%，呈现供需两旺的局面。3 月中国动力电池装 车量 56.6GWh，同/环比+61.8%/+62.3%，其中磷酸铁锂电池装车量同/环比 +97.0%/+63.9%至 46.6GWh，占比升至 82.3%。出口方面，1 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the battery industry, including Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others, with target prices indicating significant potential upside [1][18]. Core Insights - The battery industry is experiencing robust supply and demand, with a notable increase in the production and installation of power batteries. In Q1 2025, the total production and sales of power and other batteries in China reached 326.3 GWh and 285.8 GWh, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 74.9% and 73.7% [2][18]. - The cumulative installation of power batteries in Q1 2025 was 130.2 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.8%. In March alone, the installation volume reached 56.6 GWh, with significant month-on-month growth [2][18]. - The report highlights the impact of tariffs on the export of energy storage batteries to the U.S., indicating potential short-term fluctuations. In 2024, China's lithium-ion battery exports to the U.S. amounted to $15.315 billion, with energy storage batteries being a major product [2][18]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In Q1 2025, China's total battery production and sales reached 326.3 GWh and 285.8 GWh, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 74.9% and 73.7% [2][18]. - The power battery installation volume in March 2025 was 56.6 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 62.3% [2][18]. Market Dynamics - The market concentration for power battery installations slightly decreased, with the top three and five companies holding 71.7% and 80.6% market shares, respectively [2][18]. - Ningde Times' market share in power battery installations decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 42.4% in March 2025 [2][18]. New Product Developments - Several companies, including BYD and Yiwei Lithium Energy, have launched new battery products aimed at electric two-wheelers and power tools, showcasing advancements in power density and charging capabilities [2][18]. Strategic Collaborations - Ningde Times has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with NIO to support the development of NIO's battery swap network, indicating a proactive approach to market expansion [2][18]. Export Trends - The report notes that energy storage batteries are significantly affected by recent tariff increases, with expectations of shared burdens between Chinese storage companies and U.S. end-users in the short term [2][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth supported by an expanding management scale, with a projected management area growth of 7.4% year-on-year to 431.1 million square meters by the end of 2024 [5][6] - Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize from 2025 to 2027, with net profit expected to grow at a high single-digit rate during this period [5][6] - The target price remains unchanged at HKD 6.30, indicating a potential upside of 18.6% from the current price [1][5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 13,051 million - 2024: RMB 14,024 million (up 7.5% year-on-year) - 2025E: RMB 15,227 million (up 8.6% year-on-year) [4][10] - Core profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 1,343 million - 2024: RMB 1,511 million (up 12.5% year-on-year) - 2025E: RMB 1,651 million (up 9.3% year-on-year) [4][10] - The company’s gross margin is expected to rebound to 16.6% in 2024, with a stable range of 16-17% projected for 2025-2027 [5][6] Share Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 3.71% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 17,437.83 million [3][4]

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 今日焦点 | 京东 | | | | | | | JD US | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 预计 年 | 2025 | 1 | 季度业绩增长延续 | | 4 | 季度趋 | 评级: | 买入 | | 势，利润有超预期的可能性 | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价: 美元 | | 35.58 | | 目标价: | 美元 | 62.00 | | 潜在涨幅: +74.3% | | 孙梦琪 | | | | | | mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com | | | 预计 2025 年 1 季度业绩增长符合预期，收入同比双位数增长，带电、日 百均延续 2024 年 4 季度趋势，国补带动电脑及手机增速回暖，家电 3 月表现好于 1-2 月。外卖补贴上线，但预计投入审慎，零售利润率有提 升空间，全年利润仍将有望实现高个位数稳定增长，现价对应 2025 年市 盈率 7.6 倍，处于历史低位，维持 62 美元/240 港元目标价及买入。 | 京东物流 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to experience stable growth supported by an expanding management scale, with a projected management area growth of 7.4% year-on-year to 431.1 million square meters by the end of 2024 [5][6] - Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize from 2025 to 2027, with net profit expected to grow at a high single-digit rate during this period [5] - The target price for the company is set at HKD 6.30, indicating a potential upside of 18.6% from the current price of HKD 5.31 [1][5] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 13,051 million - 2024: RMB 14,024 million (growth of 7.5%) - 2025: RMB 15,227 million (growth of 8.6%) - 2026: RMB 16,127 million (growth of 5.9%) - 2027: RMB 16,958 million (growth of 5.2%) [4][10] - Core profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 1,343 million - 2024: RMB 1,511 million (growth of 12.5%) - 2025: RMB 1,651 million (growth of 9.3%) - 2026: RMB 1,750 million (growth of 6.0%) - 2027: RMB 1,855 million (growth of 6.0%) [4][10] - The company’s net profit is projected to increase from approximately RMB 1.51 billion in 2024 to RMB 1.86 billion in 2027 [5][10] Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 3.71% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 17,437.83 million [3][4] - The 52-week high and low for the stock are HKD 7.12 and HKD 4.05, respectively [3]

交银国际研究 2025 年经营策略及目标。公司将重点强化跑步品类，同时将新兴品类（ 如户外、网球、匹克球）作为重点培育方向。公司预期收入持平，毛利 率持平或小幅提升，净利润率预期维持在高单位数。 维持中性评级。客流量暂未出现明显回升，短期内缺乏显著催化剂。较 为保守的财务指引反映对未来的谨慎态度。 每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 11 日 今日焦点 | 李宁 | | | | 2331 HK | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 专业品类维持高速增长；管理层预期 | | 2025 | 年 | 评级: | 中性 | | 收入和毛利率表现稳定 | | | | | | | 收盘价: 港元 14.52 | 目标价: 港元 16.25↑ | | | 潜在涨幅: +11.9% | | | 谭星子, FRM | kay.tan@bocomgroup.com | | | | | 2024 年业绩符合一致性预期。2024 年，李宁实现收入 286.8 亿元，同比 增长 3.9%。毛利率提升 1 个百分点至 49.4%（符合此前管理层预期）， 主要得益于电商渠道折扣改善（贡献 0. ...