Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown rapid growth in its feed business, with significant performance in overseas markets. The revenue for H1 2025 reached 58.831 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.50%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.639 billion yuan, up 24.16% year-on-year. The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 32.2 billion yuan, a 14.00% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.356 billion yuan, up 7.26% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 333 million yuan. Due to the better-than-expected sales growth in pig and poultry feed, the profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted upwards [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the feed business generated revenue of 47.139 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.02%, with a gross margin of 9.79%. The total feed sales reached 14.7 million tons, a growth of approximately 25% year-on-year. The external sales of poultry feed were 7.3 million tons, up 24% year-on-year, while pig feed external sales were 3.4 million tons, a 43% increase year-on-year. The external sales of aquatic feed reached 2.8 million tons, a 16% increase year-on-year. The overseas feed external sales increased by 40% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in established regions and active expansion into new areas [5][6]. Profitability and Growth Projections - The company's breeding business revenue for H1 2025 was 9.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.59%, with a gross margin of 20.26%. The animal health business generated revenue of 464 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.35% year-on-year, while the seed business revenue was 770 million yuan, up 10% year-on-year. The company is focusing on building its breeding team capabilities and innovating its asset-light model, which has led to controllable risks and considerable profitability [6][9]. Earnings Forecast - The profit forecasts for the company are as follows: for 2025, 5.148 billion yuan; for 2026, 5.739 billion yuan; and for 2027, 6.172 billion yuan. The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.09 yuan, 3.45 yuan, and 3.71 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.7, 15.9, and 14.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that despite the current low level of PPI, there is potential for marginal improvement, which, combined with a loose liquidity environment, may accelerate valuation recovery [2][10][12] - The report identifies two leading signals for PPI's marginal recovery: the transmission from the credit side and the structural divergence between CRB and PPI, indicating a potential for price recovery [17][18] - The "anti-involution" policy has begun to influence PPI trading, with expectations for valuation recovery in cyclical consumer assets, supported by recent government initiatives [2][24] Group 2 - The report discusses the early stage of the "anti-involution" market, highlighting that supply-demand resonance is a core variable driving PPI elasticity and market dynamics [26] - It notes that the current market environment is characterized by a weak base cycle, with PPI showing a significant decline, particularly in the mining and raw materials sectors [10][11] - The report suggests that the stock market has stronger liquidity premium protection compared to the commodity market, with certain sectors already showing signs of trend recovery [38][44] Group 3 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors benefiting from PPI marginal improvement expectations, including insurance, building materials, liquor, real estate, and chemicals [52] - The report highlights that the scope of the "anti-involution" policy has expanded beyond traditional cyclical sectors to include emerging manufacturing areas such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries, indicating mid-term potential [52][54] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the demand-side policies that could either support or hinder the sustainability of the current market recovery [36][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for improvement in the demand for infant formula due to the recent national childcare subsidy policy, which is expected to stimulate birth rates and consumer confidence [5][6][7] - The report anticipates a recovery in the dairy industry, particularly in the infant formula segment, driven by policy support and demographic trends [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is currently experiencing fluctuations, with a notable decline in the stock performance of the sector compared to the CSI 300 index [2] Policy Impact - The national childcare subsidy program, effective from January 1, 2025, will provide annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old, potentially benefiting over 20 million families [5][6] - This subsidy is seen as a crucial measure to enhance birth rates, especially in lower-tier cities, where the cost of raising children is significantly high [6] Market Demand - The demand for infant formula is expected to improve in 2025, supported by the new subsidy policy and a favorable demographic shift due to the upcoming Year of the Dragon [7] - The dairy industry is also exploring new growth avenues through deep processing and export opportunities, which could further stimulate demand [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the infant formula market, such as China Feihe, which is expected to benefit from product innovations and improved channel freshness [8] - Other recommended stocks include Yili Group and Mengniu Dairy, which are anticipated to see profitability recovery as raw milk prices rebound [8]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of Celestica, which raised its annual revenue guidance to $11.55 billion, up from the previous $10.85 billion, driven by robust demand from major clients [12][13] - The AI PCB industry is experiencing a significant expansion due to high demand for advanced AI servers, leading to increased capital expenditures and a tight supply chain for PCB equipment [16][17] - The antibiotic sector, particularly for the company Federated Pharmaceuticals, is stable with a growing market for diabetes and animal health products, projecting net profits of 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion for 2025-2027 [29][30] Total Research - As of July 29, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield is at 1.75%, up 11 basis points from the June low of 1.64% [3] - Historical patterns indicate that bond yields can reverse in either a V-shape or W-shape, with the latter often leading to a more significant upward movement [4][5] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond yield could rise to a target range of 1.9% to 2.2% in the second half of 2025, driven by economic recovery and inflation normalization [10] Industry Analysis - The communication sector is seeing increased demand for light modules and liquid cooling solutions, as indicated by Celestica's performance [12] - The PCB industry is entering a phase of intensive expansion, with several manufacturers announcing new projects to meet the rising demand for high-end products [17][18] - AI's impact on PCB performance is pushing for upgrades in materials and manufacturing processes, with a focus on higher layer counts and advanced techniques [19][20] Company-Specific Insights - Celestica's second-quarter revenue reached $2.89 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, with a notable 82% growth in its hardware platform solutions segment [12] - The company is benefiting from strong demand from its top clients, which account for a significant portion of its revenue [12] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the PCB equipment market due to ongoing expansions and technological upgrades [16][18]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Information not provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the target for the 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to be between 1.9% and 2.2%. With the economic growth rate likely not to decline significantly in the second half of 2025, bond yields are expected to rise due to the revision of economic expectations. Historically, the reasonable level of the 10-year Treasury bond yield has generally been in the range of DR007 + 40 to 70BP. If policies to counter内卷 are effective in the second half of 2025 and inflation normalizes, the DR007 central level is expected to rise above the inflation level, and the reasonable range of the 10-year Treasury bond yield is also expected to increase accordingly [6]. Group 3 - Summary Based on Related Catalogs Law 1: Two Ways for Bond Yields to Reach the Bottom - Historically, there are two forms of bond yields reaching the bottom: V-shaped reversal and W-shaped reversal. For V-shaped reversals, significant policy stimuli lead to a rapid economic upswing, causing bond yields to show a V-shaped reversal, as seen in 2009 and 2020. For W-shaped reversals, bond yields experience a double bottom because the economy stabilizes in an L-shape and market expectations for the economy are uncertain. After the first bottom and rebound, yields usually decline again, even to new lows, such as in Q3 2012 and Q2 2013, Q1 2016 and Q3 2016. In the case of a W-shaped reversal, market congestion is usually low when bond yields are at the first low and high when at the second low. Also, the upward amplitude of a W-shaped reversal is greater than that of a V-shaped reversal, with the upward amplitudes in 2009 and 2020 being around 100BP and 80BP respectively, and those in 2013 and 2016 being around 140BP and 130BP respectively [3]. Law 2: Bond Yield Increases Lag Behind the Stock Market's Upward Trend - Four logics suggest that the stock market's upward trend leads bond yields. Firstly, the stock market is more sensitive to the economy as stock trading is often bottom-up and more sensitive to micro - entity changes. Secondly, the stock market represents the market's endogenous driving force, and its upward trend may indicate continuous improvement in this force. Thirdly, bond investors have strong long - position stickiness because of the coupon income of bond assets. Fourthly, the performance evaluation mechanism of bond funds, which is mainly based on relative returns, has made it difficult for bond investors to reduce their duration since 2021. Historically, in 2009, 2013, 2016, and 2020, the stock market rose first, and bond yields increased later [4][5]. Law 3: The Direct Triggering Reasons for Bond Yield Increases Vary - Historically, the logic for bond yield increases is usually economic recovery and rising funds, but by the time investors confirm these, bond yields have often risen significantly. The direct triggering reasons for bond yield increases at inflection points have been different each time, making it difficult to accurately predict yield inflection points. For example, in January 2009, the trigger was credit data; in June 2013, it was the "money shortage"; in August 2016, it was tight funds; and in April 2020, it was the change in epidemic prevention policies [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a strong performance in the AI sector, particularly in overseas markets, with significant capital expenditure increases from major players like Google and Celestica, indicating a bullish outlook for the AI computing and application sectors [5][6][7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The communication industry is projected to outperform the overall market, with a positive trend observed in the industry index compared to the CSI 300 index [2][1] Company Highlights - Celestica reported Q2 2025 revenue of $2.89 billion, a 21% year-on-year increase, exceeding company guidance, with a notable performance in its CCS business, which saw a revenue increase of 28% [5] - Google achieved Q2 2025 revenue of $96.4 billion, a 13.8% year-on-year growth, with its cloud business revenue rising by 31.7% [6] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the AI computing supply chain, recommending specific companies in various segments such as optical modules, optical chips, liquid cooling, and AIDC [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [13]. Core Insights - The demand for AI PCBs is driving a tight supply situation, leading to an acceleration in capacity expansion among downstream PCB manufacturers, which is positively impacting the upstream PCB equipment sector [3][4]. - Significant capital expenditure from overseas AI giants is sustaining high demand for high-end AI server PCBs, prompting downstream manufacturers to actively expand production [3][4]. - The current expansion cycle is expected to result in a notable increase in equipment order volumes and an upgrade in high-end PCB production lines, which will enhance the average selling price (ASP) of equipment [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Expansion - The PCB industry is entering a period of intensive capacity expansion, with several PCB manufacturers announcing new projects, including notable expansions by companies such as Huadian and Shenghong [4][10]. - Capital expenditures are increasing, with Pengding Holdings indicating a capital expenditure of 5 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.5% [4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - Some upstream PCB equipment suppliers are experiencing supply tightness due to the rapid growth in global AI computing demand, which is accelerating the technological upgrades and capacity expansions of high-layer PCBs and high-end HDI boards [5]. - Chip equipment manufacturers like Xinqi Microelectronics are reporting full capacity operations and optimistic business prospects, with order delivery schedules extending into the third quarter of 2025 [5]. Technological Upgrades - AI's requirements for PCB performance are driving upgrades in related equipment, necessitating advancements in layers, materials, and manufacturing processes [6]. - The complexity of structures in high-layer HDI boards is increasing, which is pushing equipment manufacturers to enhance their technology and precision [7]. Beneficiary Companies - Recommended beneficiaries in the PCB equipment market include Xinqi Microelectronics for exposure equipment, Dazhu CNC for drilling and testing equipment, Dongwei Technology for plating equipment, and Dingtai Gaoke for drilling needles [8][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9] Core Views - The company benefits from the expansion of PCB equipment and the acceleration of semiconductor equipment layout, maintaining a "Buy" rating. Despite a downward revision of the company's annual profit forecast due to limited capacity in the first phase of the factory, the company is expected to benefit from downstream PCB manufacturers' expansion and the upcoming production of the second-phase factory, leading to a positive mid-term performance release. Long-term, the company's semiconductor business is gradually constructing multiple growth drivers, with projected revenues of 1.5 billion, 2.2 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and net profits of 300 million, 516 million, and 709 million yuan for the same years [5][6][9]. Company Overview - The company is a leading manufacturer of direct imaging lithography equipment, primarily serving the PCB and semiconductor sectors. Its products include direct imaging equipment for PCB and semiconductor applications, covering various processes from microns to nanometers. The company has a complete range of LDI equipment for PCB manufacturing, including IC substrates, HDI, and flexible printed circuits [6][15]. PCB Business - The PCB business is driven by high-end demand from AI infrastructure, with optimistic capital expenditure guidance from PCB manufacturers. The company has maintained a full order book since Q2 2024, but growth has been limited by capacity constraints. The gradual production of the second-phase factory is expected to release capacity and positively impact order growth [6][15]. Semiconductor Business - The semiconductor business is accelerating its industrialization process, with multiple layouts constructing a new growth curve. The company is focusing on advanced packaging technologies and has successfully completed product validation for several advanced packaging customers. The company is also making steady progress in the general semiconductor field, benefiting from the long-term trend of domestic substitution [7][36]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with a projected revenue of 1.467 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.8%. The net profit is expected to reach 300 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 86.7%. The gross margin is projected to be 39.9% in 2025, with a net margin of 20.4% [8][34]. Market Position - The company has established a strong market position with a complete range of products covering various PCB types and processes. It has successfully penetrated the high-end PCB market and is positioned to benefit from the ongoing expansion in the semiconductor sector [6][15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in capital expenditure (Capex) among domestic internet companies, indicating a potential upward trend in the industry [3] - The report discusses the upcoming changes in materials and technologies in the PCB sector, emphasizing the need for new materials to meet the demands of advanced applications [4][5] Summary by Sections New Materials - The M9 level copper-clad laminate (CCL) is expected to undergo significant upgrades, with upstream materials needing to evolve to meet requirements for low dielectric constant and low expansion coefficient [3][4] - Key materials such as quartz fabric, PPO, and hydrocarbon resin are anticipated to become important choices in the future [3] New Architectures - Orthogonal backplanes may replace copper cables as a crucial connection method within cabinets, offering advantages in high-speed transmission and reduced heat generation [4] - The use of orthogonal backplanes is expected to increase PCB usage per cabinet, thereby boosting upstream material demand [4] New Packaging Technologies - Advanced packaging techniques such as PCB process substrate, embedded components, and glass-based materials are evolving to reduce signal loss and improve power integrity [5] - The new packaging methods will require higher specifications for PCB dimensions and will necessitate collaboration across multiple stages, including testing and packaging [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various aspects such as technological capabilities, production expansion pace, and customer development [6] - Beneficiary stocks in the upstream materials segment include companies like Feilihua, Honghe Technology, and Zhongcai Technology [6] - Beneficiary stocks in the CCL segment include Shengyi Technology and Nanya New Materials [6] - Beneficiary stocks in the PCB segment include companies like Huitian Technology, Shenchao Technology, and Jingsheng Electronics [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in industrial enterprise profits, with June's profit decline narrowing to -4.3% from -9.1% in May, indicating a marginal improvement in the economic landscape [4][5][6] - The "anti-involution" policy is showing initial positive effects, with specific industries like black metallurgy and automotive experiencing profit improvements [6][7] - The agricultural chemical industry is undergoing a "three-year action" plan to combat internal competition, which is expected to enhance market order and product quality by 2027 [24][25][26] - The coal mining sector is witnessing a favorable fundamental shift, with prices for thermal and coking coal rebounding, suggesting a potential price recovery [28][29][30] Macro Economic Perspective - The report notes a year-on-year decline in profits for large-scale industrial enterprises of -1.8% for the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in revenue growth to 2.5% [4] - The contribution of investment income to profits is expected to increase, as industrial enterprises' investment returns are correlated with market indices [5][6] Industry Analysis Agricultural Chemicals - The agricultural chemical industry is implementing a "three-year action" plan to address issues like illegal production and excessive competition, aiming for significant improvements by 2027 [24][25] - Global demand for agricultural chemicals is recovering, with exports of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides showing significant year-on-year growth [26] Coal Mining - The coal sector is experiencing a rebound in prices, with thermal coal prices rising to 653 CNY/ton, a 7.2% increase from the year's lowest point [28] - The report indicates that the supply side remains constrained, with production rates in key coal-producing regions still low [28][29] Power Equipment and New Energy - The report discusses the profitability of BC technology in the photovoltaic sector, with companies like Aishuo achieving significant profit improvements [32][33] - The industry is expected to see a recovery in prices as the "anti-involution" policies take effect, enhancing profitability for leading firms [32][34] Media and Entertainment - The report emphasizes the ongoing developments in AI applications and the potential for growth in domestic IP films and related merchandise, particularly during the summer season [38][39] - The upcoming ChinaJoy event is anticipated to boost the gaming sector, with a focus on new game releases and IP-related consumer products [40] Social Services - The report highlights the expected increase in tourism in Hainan following its upcoming free trade zone policies, which are likely to enhance international travel demand [43] - The health food market is projected to grow significantly, driven by rising health awareness among consumers [44][45]