KAIYUAN SECURITIES
Search documents
行业周报:加码布局游戏及AI应用-20250928
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 13:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The gaming sector is expected to experience a high prosperity cycle driven by stable game license approvals and upcoming holiday promotions, with a recommendation to increase allocations in gaming stocks [4] - AI applications are gaining momentum with significant investments in infrastructure, suggesting a strong growth trajectory for AI-related companies [5] Summary by Sections Industry Data Overview - "Plants vs. Zombies 3" ranks first in the iOS free game chart, while "Honor of Kings" leads the iOS revenue chart as of September 27, 2025 [11][15] - The domestic client game market revenue in August saw a year-on-year increase of 17% [29] Industry News Overview - Nvidia's investment of $100 billion in OpenAI aims to enhance AI infrastructure, indicating a robust future for AI applications [30] - In September, 156 game licenses were issued, with major companies like Tencent, NetEase, and miHoYo receiving approvals [33] Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xindong Company, Kaiying Network, Shenzhou Taiyue, Giant Network, and Tencent Holdings for potential investment opportunities in the gaming sector [4] - For AI applications, companies like Huizhong Technology, Kuaishou, and NetEase Cloud Music are highlighted as key players to watch [5]
行业周报:东北首单公募REIT获批,消费REITs单月表现优异-20250928
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 13:18
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [2][5]. Core Viewpoints - The approval of the first public REIT in Northeast China and the strong performance of consumption REITs in the past month indicate a positive trend in the market. The REITs market is expected to benefit from the downward pressure on bond market interest rates and the anticipated entry of social security and pension funds, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of allocations in this sector [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the 39th week of 2025, the CSI REITs closing index was 831.45, up 6% year-on-year but down 0.83% month-on-month. The CSI REITs total return index was 1064.42, up 12.63% year-on-year but down 0.65% month-on-month. Year-to-date, the CSI REITs closing index has increased by 9.92%, while the CSI 300 index has risen by 32.61%, resulting in an excess return of -22.7% [7][16][20]. Weekly Tracking - The trading volume of the REITs market reached 388 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.92%, with a transaction value of 1.86 billion yuan, down 1.06% year-on-year. The turnover rate for the period was 1.63%, down 1.54 percentage points year-on-year [25][30]. Sector Performance - In the 39th week, the weekly performance of various REIT sectors showed declines: affordable housing down 1.49%, environmental down 0.09%, highway down 1.73%, industrial park down 0.65%, warehousing and logistics down 0.43%, energy down 0.60%, and consumption down 1.43%. However, the monthly performance showed consumption REITs with a cumulative increase of 1.56% [35][50].
煤炭行业周报:动力煤700元之上和焦煤大涨,煤炭布局稳扎稳打-20250928
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 13:17
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices have rebounded above 700 yuan per ton, with a peak of 706 yuan per ton observed recently. The demand for non-electric coal is expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months [3][4] - The report emphasizes that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery due to supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand shifts [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with prices expected to recover to long-term contract prices. The current price has surpassed the second target price, which is around 700 yuan per ton. Future expectations suggest a potential recovery to a third target price of approximately 750 yuan per ton by 2025, with a fourth target price around 860 yuan per ton [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio indicates target prices for coking coal at 1608 yuan, 1680 yuan, 1800 yuan, and 2064 yuan corresponding to thermal coal's target prices [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. The current low prices of thermal and coking coal provide room for rebound, supported by supply-side policies and seasonal demand expectations [5][14] - Four main lines of coal stock selection are recommended: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 1.37%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.49, and the PB ratio is 1.26, ranking low among all A-share industries [8][30][31]
行业周报:建材行业稳增长方案出台,积极布局建材机会-20250928
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 12:51
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments have jointly issued the "Building Materials Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", which aims to stabilize growth and promote transformation. Key goals include achieving over 300 billion yuan in revenue from green building materials by 2026 and establishing "zero external electricity, zero carbon emissions" demonstration factories [3][4] - The report recommends several companies in the consumer building materials sector, including Sankeshu (channel penetration and retail expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader with optimized operational structure), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations with a high retail business ratio), and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader with diversified expansion into coatings and waterproof sectors) [3][4] - The cement sector is expected to benefit from the "Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Special Action Plan" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, which aims to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025 [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The building materials index fell by 2.11% in the week from September 22 to September 26, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 13.80%, while the building materials index increased by 10.96%, underperforming by 2.84 percentage points [4][11] - The average PE ratio for the building materials sector is 28.92 times, ranking it 15th from the bottom among all A-share industries, while the PB ratio is 1.32 times, ranking it 8th from the bottom [17][21] Cement Sector - As of September 26, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 287.55 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.06% month-on-month. The clinker inventory ratio reached 70.17%, up by 5.06 percentage points [22][23] - Regional price trends show increases in various areas, with the highest increase in the southwest region at 7.67% [22][23] Glass Sector - The spot price of float glass as of September 26, 2025, was 1283.80 yuan/ton, up by 6.19% from the previous period. The inventory of float glass decreased by 2.60%, with a total of 53.29 million weight boxes [73][75] - The price of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 125.00 yuan/weight box [77] Fiberglass Sector - The market price for non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranges from 3400 to 4000 yuan/ton, with variations depending on the region and specific product type [6][4] Consumer Building Materials - As of September 26, 2025, the price of crude oil was 72.09 USD/barrel, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.76%. The price of asphalt remained stable at 4570 yuan/ton [6][4]
北交所策略专题报告:北交所“9.24”新政一周年:专精特新领涨,估值弹性兑现,生态跃迁开启
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 12:14
Group 1 - The report highlights the significant performance of the North Exchange (北交所) following the "9.24" policy, with the North Specialized and New Index and North 50 Index increasing by 210.02% and 163.26% respectively from September 23, 2024, to September 24, 2025 [2][12][14] - The report identifies four distinct market phases since the implementation of the "9.24" policy, with the first phase showing the highest growth in the North Specialized and New Index and North 50 Index, at 143.23% and 134.9% respectively [14][18] - The report notes that small-cap companies (market cap below 2 billion) and the information technology sector experienced the largest average gains during the first market phase, with increases of 158.91% and 256.70% respectively [20][21] Group 2 - The second and third market phases (January 13, 2025 - March 18, 2025 and April 7, 2025 - May 21, 2025) also saw significant growth in the North Specialized and New Index, with increases of 53.59% and 45.72% respectively, driven by advancements in AI and technology sectors [22][29] - The report indicates that the fourth market phase (August 1, 2025 - September 24, 2025) was characterized by a rebound in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market, with the North Specialized and New Index increasing by 13.88% [39][42] - The report emphasizes that the chemical new materials sector and companies with market caps over 10 billion showed the highest average gains during the fourth phase, with increases of 19.40% and 10.60% respectively [42][44] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the current valuation landscape, noting that the average TTM PE ratios for the North Exchange, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and Growth Enterprise Market are 17.62X, 32.93X, and 25.33X respectively, indicating that the North Exchange remains undervalued [18][23] - The report highlights that the North Exchange's liquidity has decreased, with an average daily trading volume of 22.162 billion yuan, down 20.71% from the previous week [48][50] - The report categorizes the five major sectors within the North Exchange, with TTM PE ratios for high-end equipment, information technology, chemical new materials, consumer services, and biomedicine being 42.53X, 102.55X, 47.51X, 54.90X, and 44.06X respectively [62][64]
钛:正在崛起的“第三金属”,降本与需求共振迎接黄金时代
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 11:14
Group 1: Titanium Industry Overview - Titanium is recognized as the "third metal" due to its lightweight, high strength, and excellent corrosion resistance, making it essential in various industries such as chemical energy, aerospace, and biomedical [3][11][20] - China's titanium processing material production increased from 48,600 tons in 2015 to 159,100 tons in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.97% [17][18] - The demand for titanium in the chemical sector accounted for 51.23% in 2023, followed by aerospace at 19.79%, indicating a growing market potential as costs decrease [20][26] Group 2: Company Insights - Tiangong Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of titanium and titanium alloy materials, focusing on high-end products such as plates, pipes, and wires [22] - The company has been recognized for its technological advancements and has been designated as a provincial-level enterprise technology center in Jiangsu [22][24] - Tiangong's products are increasingly being applied in consumer electronics, 3D printing, and biomedical fields, reflecting the expanding use of titanium materials [20][22] Group 3: Chemical New Materials Sector Performance - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange experienced a decline of 5.68% in the week of September 22 to September 26, 2025, with only the professional technical services sector showing an increase [28][29] - Notable stock performances included Guangxin Technology (+9.01%), Silane Technology (+5.14%), and Ruihua Technology (+3.76%), indicating some resilience within the sector [32][35] - The overall market sentiment remains weak, with various sub-industries, including battery materials and rubber and plastic products, also experiencing declines [28][29]
北交所策略专题报告:开源证券云栖大会发布重磅技术及产品,关注北证AI产业链优质稀缺标的
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 10:43
Group 1 - The report highlights the release of significant technologies and products at the 2025 Yunqi Conference, emphasizing the focus on high-quality and scarce targets in the AI industry chain on the Beijing Stock Exchange [2][11] - As of September 26, 2025, there are 25 listed companies in the AI-related industry chain on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a total market capitalization of 97.089 billion yuan, covering areas such as chips, computing center infrastructure, and computing services [17][18] - Parallel Technology (839493.BJ) is identified as a leading provider of supercomputing cloud services and computing operation services, achieving a revenue of 458 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 69.27% [19][24] Group 2 - The report indicates that five major industries on the Beijing Stock Exchange experienced an average decline in stock prices, with the high-end equipment industry down by 6.35% and the information technology industry down by 6.17% [3][25] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the high-end equipment industry fell to 40.7X, while the information technology industry saw its P/E ratio drop to 93.5X [25][28] - The technology new industry, comprising 156 companies, saw a median P/E ratio decrease from 51.7X to 48.9X, with a total market capitalization decline from 524.131 billion yuan to 494.938 billion yuan [39][40] Group 3 - The report notes that HaiDar (836699.BJ), a precision rail manufacturer, achieved a revenue of 182 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 33.0587 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.79% [21][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of the AI computing server market, with Parallel Technology planning to procure AI computing servers and related equipment, indicating ongoing investment in infrastructure [59]
行业周报:关注基药目录调整,首推方盛制药-20250928
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 09:56
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing adjustments to the National Essential Medicines List (NEML), with a focus on the potential inclusion of various traditional Chinese medicine products, which could significantly enhance growth opportunities for related companies [7][15][27] - The report emphasizes the historical context of the NEML, noting that it has undergone several revisions since its inception in 1982, with the latest version released in 2018 [5][16] - The report suggests that the demand for adjustments to the NEML is increasing, particularly for chronic disease medications and innovative domestic drugs, indicating a potential shift in the market landscape [27] Summary by Sections 1. NEML Adjustment Progress - The NEML is set to be adjusted approximately every three years, but the last update was in 2018, leading to calls for a new revision to include more chronic disease medications and innovative products [27] - The report recommends monitoring companies that may benefit from being included in the updated NEML, particularly in the traditional Chinese medicine sector [28] 2. Historical Context of NEML - The NEML was first published in 1982, with significant revisions occurring in 2009, 2012, and 2018, reflecting the government's commitment to improving public health through essential medicines [5][16] - The 2018 version of the NEML included 685 items, with a notable increase in the number of traditional Chinese medicines, indicating a growing recognition of their importance [20][21] 3. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the upcoming adjustments to the NEML will likely favor traditional Chinese medicine products, which could lead to increased sales and market penetration for companies in this sector [26][27] - Companies like Fangsheng Pharmaceutical are highlighted for their innovative approaches and potential for rapid growth in the traditional Chinese medicine market [30][31] 4. Market Performance - In the fourth week of September 2025, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector experienced a decline of 2.20%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [32] - The report notes that while the overall sector faced challenges, certain sub-sectors, such as other biological products, showed resilience with positive growth [38][39]
央行2025Q3货币政策例会学习:从支持补充到增强银行资本实力
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 08:11
投资评级:看好(维持) 行业走势图 数据来源:聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 银行 沪深300 行 业 研 究 2025 年 09 月 28 日 相关研究报告 《银行投资基金:现状洞察、费改破 局 与 逻 辑 重 塑 — 行 业 深 度 报 告 》 -2025.9.25 《存款"财富化"加速,债券利率或 进入合意配置区间—8 月央行信贷收 支表要点解读》-2025.9.18 《资产反内卷与存款财富化中的银行 竞争版图—行业投资策略》-2025.9.17 从支持补充到增强银行资本实力 ——央行 2025Q3 货币政策例会学习 liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790523060002 刘呈祥(分析师) 朱晓云(分析师) zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790524070010 事件:中国人民银行货币政策委员会 2025 年第三季度例会于 9 月 23 日召开 经济形势判断:在外部环境严峻(增长动能减弱、贸易壁垒增多),以及国内需 求不足、物价低位运行等挑战下,仍呈现"稳中有进,高质量发展取得新成 ...
行业周报:白酒临近底部,大众品聚焦产业红利-20250928
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-28 06:43
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the liquor market is showing signs of bottoming out, with a focus on three companies in the consumer goods sector. The food and beverage index declined by 2.5%, ranking 23rd among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 3.6 percentage points. The soft drink sector (+0.9%), other food products (+0.0%), and meat products (-0.0%) performed relatively well [3][10][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The liquor market is showing bottoming characteristics, with the consumer goods sector focusing on three companies. The liquor market's sales have improved slightly in Q3, but year-on-year declines persist due to the ongoing impact of alcohol bans on business consumption and overall consumer pressure [10][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 2.5%, ranking 23rd out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 3.6 percentage points. The soft drink sector, other food products, and meat products showed relatively better performance [12][13]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For instance, the price of whole milk powder in GDT auctions was $3,790 per ton, down 0.5% month-on-month but up 9.9% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.0 yuan per kilogram, stable month-on-month but down 3.5% year-on-year [16][17]. Liquor Industry News - Moutai's terminal sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of over 20%. The company is deepening its reform process and emphasizing sustainable development, with an increased dividend rate [40][44]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: 1. Ximai Food: Stable growth in the oat business, with a downward trend in raw material costs expected to continue until 2027 [11]. 2. Weilong Delicious: New product launches are expected to stabilize the noodle product line, with significant growth in the konjac category [11]. 3. Bairun Co.: The cocktail business is expected to see slight growth, with a focus on new products and whiskey brand development [11][44].