指数 名称 收盘 涨跌（％） （点） 1 日 5 日 1 月 上证指数 4008 0.97 3.22 0.52 深证综指 2527 1.16 0.3 0.36 风格指数 昨日 近 1 个月 近 6 个月 | (％) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 1.51 | 1.15 | 23.66 | | 中盘指数 | 1.67 | -1.37 | 29.75 | | 小盘指数 | 1.31 | -0.19 | 24.48 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | 跌幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | 今日重点推荐 2025 年 11 月 07 日 国防军工行业深度报告：国防军工行业 2025 三季报总结—— 基本面压力释放，确收和利润兑现将提速 ◼ 我们从业绩表现、盈利能力、营运指标等方面对军工行业 2025 年三季报进 行了分析总结，考虑了如中航成飞等个股报表回溯调整的影响，并通过横 向、纵向、静态和动态等视角阐明了军工行业在边际上仍在发生重要的变 化。 申万宏源晨会报告 ◼ 从收入利润表 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 4.33 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 177 million yuan, down 58.31% year-on-year [4][6]. - Despite the revenue decline, the company showed strong cash flow performance, with operating cash flow net amounting to 348 million yuan, a significant increase of 129.75% year-on-year [6]. - The company is transitioning from traditional equipment sales to high-value comprehensive solutions, with a total order backlog of 5.884 billion yuan as of the end of Q3 2025 [6]. - The chairman's recent stock purchase reflects confidence in the company's long-term development [6]. - The redemption of convertible bonds has improved the company's capital structure, reducing the debt-to-asset ratio from 68.59% to 60.74% [6]. - The company is focusing on nuclear power and solar thermal energy as growth areas, with expected net profits of 442 million yuan, 507 million yuan, and 600 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 4.33 billion yuan and a net profit of 177 million yuan [4]. - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 6.325 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -1.7% [5]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 442 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.6% [5]. - The company's gross margin is expected to be 15.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 8.2% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly recommending investments in the white goods sector due to its low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth potential [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry experienced a revenue growth of 4.57% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 356.1 billion yuan. Net profit increased by 3.49% to 30.158 billion yuan [3][20]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) White goods benefiting from favorable real estate policies and trade-in incentives; 2) Export-oriented companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. showing stable profitability; 3) Core components suppliers like Huaxiang Co. and Shun'an Environment poised for growth due to increased demand [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with an 8.3% increase from July to September 2025, lagging behind the 17.9% rise of the CSI 300 index [9][10]. 2. Q3 2025 Revenue and Profit Growth - The home appliance industry saw a total revenue of 356.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 4.57% increase year-on-year. The net profit for the same period was 30.158 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.49% growth [3][20]. 3. Subsector Performance 3.1 White Goods - The white goods sector achieved a revenue of 254.924 billion yuan, up 5.64% year-on-year, with a net profit of 25.049 billion yuan, a growth of 3.42% [40][41]. 3.2 Kitchen Appliances - The kitchen appliance sector reported a revenue decline of 6.38% to 7.257 billion yuan and a net profit drop of 18.66% to 548 million yuan [47][48]. 3.3 Small Appliances - Small appliances saw a revenue increase of 11.36% to 36.739 billion yuan, with a net profit rise of 2.13% to 2.201 billion yuan [53][54]. 3.4 Black Goods - The black goods sector experienced a revenue decline of 4.02% to 26.898 billion yuan and a significant net profit drop of 28.12% to 332 million yuan [59][61]. 3.5 Components - The components sector reported a revenue increase of 6.85% to 30.238 billion yuan and a net profit surge of 29.07% to 2.027 billion yuan [64][65]. 4. Key Investment Targets - The report highlights key companies for investment, including Midea, Haier, and Gree in the white goods sector, as well as Ousheng Electric and Shun'an Environment in the components sector [3][4][5]. 5. Investment Analysis - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the home appliance sector driven by domestic trade-in policies and recovering overseas demand, suggesting a favorable outlook for the industry in 2025 [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance industry, particularly focusing on the white goods sector and core components [3][4]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry experienced a revenue growth of 4.57% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 356.1 billion yuan. Net profit increased by 3.49% to 30.158 billion yuan [4][27]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) White goods benefiting from favorable real estate policies and trade-in incentives; 2) Export-driven companies like Ousheng Electric and Dechang Co. showing stable profitability; 3) Core components suppliers like Huaxiang Co. and Shun'an Environment leading in demand due to the white goods sector's unexpected growth [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The home appliance sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with an 8.3% increase from July 1 to September 30, 2025, lagging behind the 17.9% rise of the CSI 300 index [14][19]. 2. Q3 2025 Home Appliance Industry Performance - Revenue growth of 4.57% year-on-year, with a total of 356.1 billion yuan in revenue. The net profit growth was 3.49%, totaling 30.158 billion yuan [4][27]. - The gross margin decreased by 0.68 percentage points to 25.38%, while the net margin slightly increased by 0.06 percentage points to 8.65% [30][36]. 3. Subsector Performance - **White Goods**: Revenue increased by 5.64% to 254.924 billion yuan, with net profit growth of 3.42% [48][49]. - **Kitchen Appliances**: Revenue decreased by 6.38% to 7.257 billion yuan, with a significant net profit decline of 18.66% [56][59]. - **Small Appliances**: Revenue grew by 11.36% to 36.739 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 2.13% [4][42]. - **Black Goods**: Revenue fell by 4.02% to 26.898 billion yuan, with net profit down by 28.12% [4][12]. - **Components**: Revenue rose by 6.85% to 30.238 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 29.07% [4][43]. 4. Key Investment Targets - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the white goods sector such as Hisense, Midea, Haier, and Gree, as well as component suppliers like Huaxiang and Shun'an Environment [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in specific companies within the sector [6][33][46]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the oil price has shown a slight increase in Q3 2025, with Brent crude averaging $68.2 per barrel, a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 19.8% decrease year-on-year [6][22][29]. - The upstream oil and gas sector has seen improved performance due to rising oil prices, while the downstream refining sector is experiencing pressure from weak terminal demand [33][34]. - The report recommends focusing on quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [6][33][46]. Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - In Q3 2025, the oil and gas extraction and oilfield services sector achieved total revenue of 1,579.75 billion yuan, a 4.0% decrease year-on-year but a 3.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [21][23]. - The net profit for the sector was 93.05 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year but up 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.9% [21][23]. Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical industry reported total revenue of 1,670.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 5.3% decrease year-on-year but a 3.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [33][34]. - The net profit for this sector was 59.69 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-on-year and a 14.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 17.8% [33][34]. Price Trends and Margins - The report notes that the price spread for major petrochemical products has shown mixed trends, with some margins expanding while others contracted [15][18][34]. - The average price spread for ethylene-ethylene was $605 per ton, an increase of $38 per ton quarter-on-quarter, while the propylene-acrylic acid spread decreased by 440 yuan per ton [15][18]. Recommendations - The report suggests that the polyester sector is tightening in supply and demand, with expectations for improvement in profitability, particularly for companies like Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials [6][33][46]. - It also highlights the potential for large refining companies to benefit from cost improvements and competitive advantages due to domestic policies and overseas refinery contractions [6][33][46].

Financing & Review - In October 2025, the North Exchange issued 3 new stocks, raising a total of 668 million yuan; from January to October 2025, a total of 19 new stocks were issued, raising 5.834 billion yuan[5] - As of now, there are 10 companies that have passed the review but have not registered, with a proposed fundraising amount of 3.220 billion yuan; 2 companies have registered but not issued, with a proposed fundraising amount of 461 million yuan[5] Subscription & Issuance - The median first-day increase for the 3 new stocks listed in October was +281.31%, with individual increases of +347.50%, +281.31%, and +180.26% for Aomeisen, Changjiang Nengke, and Taikai Ying respectively; there were no first-day declines for new stocks from January to October[3] - The theoretical subscription yield for individual new stocks Aomeisen, Changjiang Nengke, and Taikai Ying was +0.077%, +0.059%, and +0.070% respectively[3] Market Trends & Predictions - The cumulative subscription yield for new stocks on the North Exchange in 2024 was +4.01%, while the cumulative theoretical yield from January to October 2025 was +1.96%[3] - The average top subscription amount in October was 10.03 million yuan, with a median frozen fund range of 613.017 to 772.537 billion yuan[5] Investment Analysis - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has indicated a normalization of the issuance and listing process, with expectations for 40 new stocks to be issued throughout the year, potentially increasing annual subscription yields by over 3 percentage points[6] - The average lock-up period for institutions that have released shares is 8 months, with an overall yield of +254.8% and a success rate of 100%[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected issuance speed on the North Exchange, lower-than-expected stock price increases, macroeconomic downturns, and rapid growth in new stock subscription accounts[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry for Q3 2025 [3] Core Insights - Q3 2025 saw a slight recovery in oil prices, with Brent crude averaging $68.2 per barrel, a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 19.8% decrease year-on-year [6][22] - The upstream oil and gas sector experienced improved performance due to rising oil prices, while the downstream refining sector faced challenges from weak terminal demand [34][21] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in high-quality companies within the polyester sector and large refining enterprises [6][34] Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - In Q3 2025, the oil and gas extraction and service industry achieved total revenue of CNY 15,797.5 billion, a 4.0% decrease year-on-year but a 3.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [21] - The net profit for the sector was CNY 930.5 billion, down 6.1% year-on-year but up 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.9% [21][23] - The report notes that the recovery in oil prices contributed to improved performance in upstream extraction and sales [21] Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical industry reported total revenue of CNY 16,702.0 billion in Q3 2025, a 5.3% decrease year-on-year but a 3.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [34] - The net profit for this sector was CNY 596.9 billion, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-on-year and a 14.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 17.8% [34][36] - The report indicates that while oil prices rose, the downstream refining product margins decreased, particularly in the polyester sector due to seasonal demand fluctuations [35][34] Price Trends and Margins - The report details various price trends, including the average price of Brent crude at $68.2 per barrel and the average price differences for key petrochemical products [16][18] - Specific price differences such as the ethylene-ethylene price difference at $605 per ton and the propylene-propane price difference at CNY 1,464 per ton were noted, with some margins expanding while others contracted [15][18] - The report emphasizes the concentration of profits in the polyester industry, with the PTA segment under pressure [15][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [6][34] - It also suggests that the oil price is expected to maintain a mid-to-high level with limited downside potential, recommending companies with high dividend yields like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [6][34]

型及花 机械设备 2025 年 11 月 06 日 研究 行业 证券分析师 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 联系人 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 表 1: 重点公司估值表 | 公司代码 | 公司简称 | 2025/11/5 | | EPS (元/股) | | | | PE | | | PB (LF) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价（元/股） | 24A | 25E | 26E | 27E | 24A | 25E | 26E | 27E | | | 09868 | 小鹏汽车-W | 87.70 | -3.03 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant improvement in its Q3 performance, with revenue reaching 324 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 33 million yuan, a substantial recovery from previous losses [6]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 52.99%, up 11.17 percentage points from the previous year, attributed to supply chain optimization and changes in sales structure [6]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the acceleration of domestic production processes, with its high-end Ethernet switching chips entering the market and being adopted by major domestic switch manufacturers [6]. - The company maintains a high level of R&D investment, with a R&D expense ratio of 42.25% for the first three quarters of 2025, which is expected to enhance product development and core technology breakthroughs [6]. - The company is involved in the OISA ecological collaboration, which aims to enhance GPU interconnect bandwidth, supporting large-scale AI training and inference in China [6]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 832 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 1.34 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 23.9% [5]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 12 million yuan, with significant growth expected in subsequent years, reaching 133 million yuan by 2027 [5]. - The gross margin is projected to remain strong, with estimates of 46.1% for 2025 and around 45.8% for 2027 [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the construction state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the ESG context, highlighting strong performance in green development and social responsibility [5][11]. Core Insights - The overall ESG scores for the 19 construction SOEs are good, with 8 companies scoring above 80 and 10 between 60-79, while only 1 company scored below 60. Climate governance and governance improvements are identified as key weaknesses [11][21]. - The importance assessment is well-disclosed among the companies, with 19 companies reporting their assessments, and 17 completing dual importance assessments. However, third-party verification is lacking, with only 3 companies engaging external validation [13][18]. - Environmental disclosures are mature, but climate disclosures need improvement. The total score for "environment + climate change response" ranges from 0 to 32 out of a maximum of 34, indicating a need for better climate-related disclosures [21][22]. - Social responsibility is a strong focus, with all 19 companies disclosing relevant information, particularly in rural revitalization and social welfare, showcasing their commitment to social responsibility [50][53]. - Governance structures are generally robust, with most companies having established boards and supervisory committees, although transparency in performance evaluation and ESG integration remains an area for improvement [60][65]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The ESG performance of the 19 construction SOEs is generally good, with strengths in green development and social responsibility, while climate governance remains a critical shortcoming [11][21]. Importance Assessment - All 19 companies have disclosed their importance assessments, with a high level of completeness. However, third-party verification is limited, indicating a need for greater transparency [13][18]. Environmental & Climate - Environmental disclosures are well-developed, but climate-related disclosures are lagging. The overall score for environmental and climate issues indicates a need for enhanced climate strategy integration [21][22]. Social Responsibility - Social issues are prominently featured in disclosures, with a focus on rural revitalization and community welfare, reflecting a strong commitment to social responsibility among the companies [50][53]. Governance - Governance frameworks are well-established, with most companies having comprehensive governance structures. However, the integration of ESG metrics into performance evaluations is not uniformly transparent [60][65].