2025 年 12 月 13 日 宏观环境"还原"，A 股向上空间受 限未变 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/08-25/12/13) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 联系人 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 策 略 研 究 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 一 周 回 顾 展 望 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 - ⚫ 一、11 月下旬以来，A 股市场面临的宏观环境出现了"还原"，风格特征也还原了 10 月 底之前的状态。但向上空间受限的问题并未根本解决：光连接 Alpha 逻辑演绎，但 26 年 美股科技龙头资本开支回落担忧犹在，AI 产业链 Beta 仍承压。光连接向上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on high-quality liquor companies, indicating that it has entered a strategic allocation period for these firms [2][7][8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant decline in revenue for major liquor companies, with expectations of continued pressure in Q1 2026, but anticipates stabilization in Q2 and a potential turning point in Q3 2026 as inventory clears and demand recovers [2][7][8]. - The report recommends key liquor stocks including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also suggesting attention to other brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [2][7]. - For consumer goods, the report emphasizes opportunities in the restaurant supply chain, particularly in condiments and frozen foods, recommending companies like Anjifood, Yili, and Qindao Beer [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.63% last week, with liquor down 1.50%, underperforming the broader market [6]. - The top gainers included Yanjin Beer and Xin Dairy, while the largest losers were Xiwang Food and Haixin Food [6]. 2. Market Performance by Sector - The report notes that high-end liquor prices have been under pressure, with Moutai's bottle price at 1500 yuan, down 45 yuan week-on-week, and Wuliangye at approximately 780 yuan, down 20 yuan [8][38]. - The report indicates that Moutai's price has dropped over 100 yuan in three weeks due to increased supply and weak seasonal demand [8]. 3. Industry Events - The report discusses the strategic adjustments made by companies to alleviate channel pressures and boost confidence among distributors, which is expected to stabilize prices [2][8]. - It also mentions the anticipated recovery in the dairy sector, with a focus on solid-state processing products and low-temperature milk [9]. 4. Valuation Table - The report provides a current valuation for the food and beverage sector at a dynamic PE of 19.92x, with a premium rate of 22%, and for the liquor sector at a dynamic PE of 18.60x, with a premium rate of 14% [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, particularly highlighting the advancements in AI technologies and their implications for enterprise applications [5][6]. Core Insights - OpenAI's release of GPT 5.2 marks a significant improvement in reasoning and professional knowledge capabilities, achieving human expert-level performance in various assessments [7][8][11]. - The Chinese civil aviation information network is positioned as a leader in aviation IT, showing signs of recovery and growth, with a strong market presence [28][39]. - Key company updates include the acquisition activities of Gaon Electronics and the launch of TicNote Pods by Out the Door, indicating strategic expansions in their respective markets [47][51]. Summary by Sections OpenAI GPT 5.2 Release - The GPT 5.2 model has shown substantial improvements in various benchmarks, achieving 70.9% in knowledge work tasks and 86.2% in abstract reasoning tasks, outperforming previous models [8][9][11]. - The competitive landscape among major AI players like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic is shifting from a focus on parameter size to differentiation in capabilities [7][27]. - The enhancements in reasoning and professional task execution are expected to benefit enterprise-level applications significantly [21][27]. Chinese Civil Aviation Information Network - The company is the largest provider of aviation IT services in China, deeply integrated into the information systems of the civil aviation industry [28][30]. - The recovery in the aviation sector is reflected in the increasing number of flight bookings, with a projected growth in passenger numbers and revenue [39][41]. - The company is expanding its services into the online travel agency (OTA) market, leveraging its existing data infrastructure and customer base [42][46]. Company Updates - Gaon Electronics is in the process of acquiring 100% of Ruicheng Chip Micro and 45.64% of Nengneng Micro, with a total transaction value of 21.74 billion RMB [47][49]. - Out the Door has launched TicNote Pods, a standalone AI recording device, marking a strategic shift towards independent AI hardware solutions [51][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the computer industry, particularly highlighting the advancements in AI technology and its implications for enterprise applications [5][6]. Core Insights - The release of OpenAI's GPT 5.2 marks a significant improvement in reasoning and professional knowledge capabilities, achieving human expert-level performance in various assessments [7][8]. - The Chinese civil aviation information network is positioned as a leader in aviation IT, showing signs of recovery and growth, with a strong market presence [28][39]. - Key company updates include the acquisition activities of Gaon Electronics and the launch of TicNote Pods by Out the Door, indicating strategic expansions in their respective markets [47][51]. Summary by Sections OpenAI GPT 5.2 Release - OpenAI's GPT 5.2 was launched on December 11, 2025, showcasing substantial improvements in reasoning and professional knowledge tasks, achieving scores of 70.9% in GDPval and 86.2% in ARC-AGI-1 [7][8]. - The competition among large models is shifting from a focus on parameter size to niche differentiation, with OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic each excelling in different areas [5][27]. - The enhanced capabilities of GPT 5.2 are expected to benefit enterprise-level applications, particularly in complex reasoning and planning tasks [21][27]. Chinese Civil Aviation Information Network - The Chinese civil aviation information network is the largest provider of aviation IT services in China, deeply integrated into the industry's information system development [28][30]. - The company has a significant market share, with approximately 95% in the domestic market and around 28% globally, ranking among the top three GDS providers [35][36]. - The recovery of the aviation industry post-pandemic is reflected in the increasing number of flight bookings, with a projected growth in passenger numbers and IT investment in the sector [39][41]. Company Updates - Gaon Electronics announced the acquisition of 100% of Ruicheng Chip Micro and 45.64% of Nengneng Micro, with a total transaction value of 2.174 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing its competitive position in the semiconductor industry [47][49]. - Out the Door launched TicNote Pods, a 4G AI recording headset, marking a strategic shift towards independent AI hardware, which is expected to enhance user experience and operational efficiency [51][55].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond market showed unexpected resilience despite large fluctuations in the equity market towards the end of the year, which may be related to the significant under - allocation pressure of institutional investors such as insurance, annuity, and public funds. With a consistent expectation of the "Spring Rally" next year, there is still room for a bullish view on the convertible bond market [4][5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - The equity and convertible bond markets remained in a volatile trend this week. Micro - cap stocks in major stock indices declined significantly, but the convertible bond market was relatively insensitive. The negative impact of micro - cap stock declines on convertible bonds was less than that in late August and late November. - Convertible bond valuations fluctuated in tandem with the market. The 100 - yuan premium rate fluctuated around 30%. Structurally, the valuation of the equity - biased area was better than that of the bond - biased area. Under multiple negative factors such as high valuations, capital outflows, and adjustments in pure bonds, the valuation of the bond - biased area weakened compared with the previous period. In the context of weak performance of the underlying stocks, the valuation of the equity - biased area rose inversely, showing a certain degree of resilience [4][5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the underlying stocks declined slightly, and the convertible bond market was roughly flat, with valuations showing volatility. After excluding abnormal points, the 100 - yuan premium rate of the entire market's convertible bonds was 29.8%, a weekly decline of 0.1%, and the latest quantile level was at the 99.1% percentile since 2017. - The valuation of the equity - biased area was still better than that of the bond - biased area. With weak performance of the underlying stocks, the high - parity area's valuation provided reverse support and showed resilience. The valuation of the bond - biased area remained weak, but there were structural differences. The valuation of the 80 - 100 yuan parity area, which had performed weakly previously, stabilized, while the valuation of the area below 80 yuan remained weak. - The median price and yield to maturity of convertible bonds were reported at 130.90 yuan and - 6.56% respectively, a change of - 0.71 yuan and + 0.00% compared with last week. The current quantile levels were at the 97.30 and 1.40 percentiles since 2017 [4][6][11]. 3.3 Clause Tracking - **Redemption**: This week, Hugong and Yingbo Convertible Bonds announced redemptions, while Bojun Convertible Bond announced no redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 67%. Currently, there are 20 convertible bonds that have issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements but have not yet delisted. The potential conversion or maturity balance of forced - redemption and maturity convertible bonds among the non - delisted bonds is 4.9 billion yuan. There are currently 22 convertible bonds in the redemption process. Six are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 10 are expected to issue announcements indicating that they are likely to trigger redemption. In addition, 9 convertible bonds are expected to enter the forced - redemption counting period within the next month [4][18][20]. - **Downward Revision**: This week, Bengang, Jinlangzhuan 02, and Hongchuan Convertible Bonds proposed downward revisions. As of now, 107 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 29 are accumulating days for downward revision, and 5 have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not yet gone to the shareholders' meeting [4][24]. - **Put Option**: This week, Wanqing Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement, and Huahai Convertible Bond has triggered the put - option clause but has not yet issued an announcement. As of now, 4 convertible bonds are accumulating days to trigger the put option, among which 1 has proposed a downward revision and 3 are in the non - downward - revision interval [4][26]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - This week, Aohong, Shenyu, and Tianzhun Convertible Bonds were issued, and Dingjie Convertible Bond will be issued next week. As of now, Pulan, Aohong, Shenyu, and Tianzhun Convertible Bonds have been issued but are not yet listed. - As of now, there are 5 convertible bonds at the approval - for - registration stage, with a total issuance scale of 5.1 billion yuan; and 9 convertible bonds at the stage of passing the listing - committee review, with a total issuance scale of 10 billion yuan [4][28].

2025 年 12 月 13 日 板块分化调整，中核水电 REIT 即将 询价 ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.12.8-2025.12.12） 相关研究 《新版行业清单出炉，基础设施 REITs 再扩围！——公募 REITs 周 度跟踪（2025.12.1-2025.12.5）》 2025/12/06 《里程碑！REITs 即将迈入商业不 动产新时代——公募 REITs 周度跟 踪（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）》 2025/11/29 《市场承压回调，关注超跌品种的 博弈机会——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.11.17-2025.11.21）》 2025/11/22 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基 ...

2025 年 12 月 13 日 板块分化调整，中核水电 REIT 即将 询价 ——公募 REITs 周度跟踪（2025.12.8-2025.12.12） 相关研究 《新版行业清单出炉，基础设施 REITs 再扩围！——公募 REITs 周 度跟踪（2025.12.1-2025.12.5）》 2025/12/06 《里程碑！REITs 即将迈入商业不 动产新时代——公募 REITs 周度跟 踪（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）》 2025/11/29 《市场承压回调，关注超跌品种的 博弈机会——公募 REITs 周度跟踪 （2025.11.17-2025.11.21）》 2025/11/22 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 研究支持 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。 ...

策 略 研 究 新股分析 2025 年 12 月 13 日 誉帆科技：排水管网一体化龙头承包 商 ——注册制新股纵览 20251213 申 购 策 略 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 任奕璇 A0230525050002 renyx2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈榕杰 A0230125080001 chenrj@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈榕杰 (8621)23297818× chenrj@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 报 告 相关研究 - ⚫ 剔除流动性溢价因素后，誉帆科技 1.90 分，位于总分的 25.6%分位。誉帆科技于 2025 年 12 月 11 日招股，将在主板上市。剔除、考虑流动性溢价因素后，我们测算誉帆科技 AHP 得分 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][10]. Core Insights - The company is a clean energy equipment platform under CIMC, focusing on LNG transportation, storage, and processing equipment, with a strong financial position and a projected CAGR of 17% for net profit from 2020 to 2024, driven by the growth in clean energy equipment [9][10]. - The company has a robust order book, with total orders amounting to 30.8 billion yuan as of Q3 2025, including 27.3 billion yuan in clean energy equipment [10][51]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in hydrogen and methanol businesses, supported by national policies and increasing demand for clean energy solutions [12][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 2004, is a subsidiary of CIMC, primarily engaged in the production of various transportation, storage, and processing equipment for clean energy, chemical environments, and liquid food industries [20][21]. - The company has shown steady revenue and profit growth, with a CAGR of 19% for revenue and 17% for net profit from 2020 to 2024 [26][32]. 2. Energy Equipment - The company benefits from a full order book in clean energy equipment, with significant growth expected in LNG storage and transportation due to declining natural gas prices and increasing demand [9][10]. - The report notes that the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the LNG market, with a projected increase in LNG-powered vessels and infrastructure [62][66]. 3. Energy Operations - The company is expanding its operations in blue hydrogen and green methanol production, with projects expected to come online in the near future [10][12]. - The focus on utilizing by-products from steel production for hydrogen and LNG production is highlighted as a key growth area [21][61]. 4. Chemical and Food Industries - The company holds a significant market share in chemical tank containers, although it faces short-term pressures from the chemical cycle [32][34]. - The liquid food segment is also impacted by consumer trends, but diversification strategies are in place to enhance resilience [32][34]. 5. Investment Analysis - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.133 billion, 1.469 billion, and 1.762 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 10, and 8 [10][11]. - The report suggests a reasonable valuation of 19.1 billion yuan for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 29% from the current market capitalization [10][11].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 12 日 收盘价（元） 378.00 一年内最高/最低（元） 490.09/183.00 市净率 16.6 股息率%（分红/股价） 0.09 上证指数/深证成指 3,889.35/13,258.33 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 22.80 | | 资产负债率% | 23.28 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 53/17 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 12-12 01-12 02-12 03-12 04-12 05-12 06-12 07-12 08-12 09-12 10-12 11-12 12-12 茂莱光学 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 《茂莱光学（688502）点评：国产替代催 化核心标的，业绩增速触底回升》 2024/10/27 证券分析师 杨海晏 A023 ...