Economic Overview - Since mid-2025, the U.S. economy has exhibited characteristics of "jobless growth" and a "K-shaped economy," with non-farm employment numbers declining to an average of 18,000 per month from June to August, significantly below the historical average of 109,000 during non-recession periods[1][15] - The GDP growth rate remains robust, supported by AI capital expenditures, despite the lack of job growth[1][21] K-shaped Economy Characteristics - The K-shaped economy is marked by a divergence in consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households experience significantly higher consumption growth compared to low-income households[1][26] - For instance, the spending growth difference in air travel and furniture between high and low-income families reached 10.5 and 10.2 percentage points, respectively, as of November 1[1][27] Causes of K-shaped Economy - The "jobless growth" phenomenon is attributed to structural imbalances in the economy, including the late-cycle economic phase, monetary easing, and the impacts of Trump's policies on immigration and tariffs[2][45] - Since the 1980s, the growth of real labor income has lagged behind productivity growth, indicating a long-term trend of increasing income and wealth inequality[2][66] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has transitioned from a tight supply to a surplus, with the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) dropping from a peak of 1.46 in January 2022 to 0.25 by August 2025, indicating a loosening labor market[2][51] - The unemployment rate for marginalized groups, such as low-education and minority populations, has risen significantly, while the unemployment rate for white individuals remains low[2][46] Future Economic Outlook - In 2026, the U.S. economy is expected to shift from "jobless growth" to "low employment growth," but the K-shaped characteristics may persist due to a weak labor market balance[3][81] - The equilibrium employment number has decreased to 30,000-80,000 jobs per month, suggesting that maintaining a low unemployment rate will not necessarily lead to a return to high employment growth[3][83]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-banking financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it is expected to outperform the overall market in the coming months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the central government's economic meetings have emphasized the need for structural reforms in the financial sector, aiming for a more efficient capital market and improved financial supply-side reforms [2][21]. - The insurance sector is expected to undergo a systematic revaluation, driven by the asset side's influence on company valuations, with a focus on sustainable business models and risk management [2][10]. - The brokerage sector is currently experiencing a mismatch between fundamentals and valuations, with potential catalysts including mergers and acquisitions and upcoming performance reports [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,580.95 with a slight decline of -0.08%, while the non-banking index rose by 0.81% to 1,991.97. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported respective changes of +0.31%, +2.36%, and -1.62% [5][6]. Non-Banking Industry Data - As of December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,247.40 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 14.23% from the previous month [15][44]. - The financing balance in the margin trading market reached 25,079.82 billion yuan, an increase of 34.5% compared to the end of 2024 [15][48]. Non-Banking Industry News - The central bank reported that in the first eleven months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale reached 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total [16]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is set to introduce new regulations on public fund sales to address long-standing issues in the industry [17]. Individual Stock Highlights - China Life Insurance reported total premiums exceeding 700 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025 [29]. - The brokerage sector saw significant stock performance, with Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities leading in gains [7][12].

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 头部非银机构监管红利有望释放 2025 年 12 月 14 日 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/12/8-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收涨 0.31%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.39pct。1）中央政治局会议： 2025/12/8，中央政治局会议召开，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。会议指出明年经济工作要坚持 "稳中求进、提质增效"（2025 年表述为"稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破，系统集 成、协同配合"）。就证 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 防观/行业 相关研究 证券分析师 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 经济工作会议定调,着力稳定房地产、积极稳妥化解风险 － 地产及物管行业周报（2025/12/6-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示: 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比下降。上周(12.6-12.12)34 个重点 ● 城市新房合计成交 242.3 万平米，环比-12.3%，其中，一二线环比-12.9%，三四线环比-2.6%。12 月(12.1-12.12)34 城一手房成交同比-32%，较 11 月+4.3pct。其中，一二线同比-32%，三四线同比 -34.4%，分别较 11 月+2.9pct 和+18.9pct。上周 13 城二手房合计成交 111.4 万平米，环比-0.4%； 1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on stabilizing investment and addressing government debt risks, with an emphasis on increasing central budget investments and optimizing local government bond usage [4][12]. - The construction sector has shown varied performance, with the SW Construction Decoration Index declining by 1.59%, underperforming against major indices [4][5]. - Key sectors such as infrastructure private enterprises and ecological landscaping have seen significant annual gains, with increases of 51.98% and 50.53% respectively [4][6]. Industry Performance Summary - The construction industry experienced a weekly decline of 1.59%, with the best-performing sub-industry being professional engineering, which increased by 0.73% [5][6]. - The top three companies in terms of weekly gains were 亚翔集成 (+25.20%), 汇绿生态 (+24.55%), and 海南发展 (+20.37%) [10][11]. - Year-to-date, the best-performing sub-industries included 基建民企 (+51.98%), 生态园林 (+50.53%), and 专业工程 (+46.64%) [6][10]. Key Company Developments - 重庆建工 won a joint bid for a project worth 1.714 billion yuan, representing 6.29% of its 2024 revenue [14]. - 文科股份 secured a contract for an environmental improvement project valued at 91 million yuan, accounting for 13.08% of its 2024 revenue [14]. - The report notes significant changes in company leadership and shareholder structures, impacting various firms within the industry [16].

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 经济工作会议定调，着力稳定房地产、积极稳妥化解风险 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2025/12/6-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 房地产 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比下降。上周(12.6-12.12)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 242.3 万平米，环比-12.3%，其中，一二线环比-12.9%，三四线环比-2.6%。12 月(12.1-12.12)34 城一手房成交同比-32%，较 11 月+ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the construction and decoration industry, indicating an "Overweight" investment rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights the need to stabilize investment and manage local government debt risks, as emphasized by the central government's recent economic work conference [4][12]. - It notes that the construction industry experienced a weekly decline of 1.59%, underperforming compared to major indices, with the best-performing sub-industry being professional engineering, which saw a slight increase of 0.73% [5][6]. - The report identifies key companies that are expected to benefit from new investment opportunities, particularly in emerging sectors aligned with national strategies [4][12]. Industry Performance Summary - The construction sector's weekly performance showed a decline of 1.59%, with the SW Construction Decoration Index underperforming against the Shanghai Composite Index [5][6]. - The best-performing sub-industries for the week included professional engineering (+0.73%), while the largest annual gainers were private infrastructure companies (+51.98%) and ecological landscaping (+50.53%) [4][6]. - Notable individual stock performances included Yaxiang Integration (+25.20%) and Hainan Development (+20.37%), while stocks like Jiaojian Co. (-30.30%) and Zhengping Co. (-22.61%) faced significant declines [10][11]. Key Company Developments - Chongqing Construction won a joint bid for a major engineering project valued at 1.714 billion yuan, representing 6.29% of its projected 2024 revenue [14]. - Wenkai Co. secured a contract for an environmental improvement project worth 91 million yuan, accounting for 13.08% of its expected 2024 revenue [14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued companies, suggesting that firms like China Railway and Shanghai Construction may see valuation recovery [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, specifically recommending China Power, China Shipbuilding, and China Ship Defense, while also highlighting Yangtze River and Songfa shares as potential investments [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates an improvement in new ship orders during November and December, reinforcing the logic of the replacement cycle. The strong second-hand ship prices are positively influencing the new ship market [4]. - The report notes that VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have exceeded expectations, with a current average of $114,420 per day, despite a slight week-on-week decline of 1%. The report anticipates significant upward potential for both charter rates and second-hand ship prices [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the railway freight volume and highway truck traffic, suggesting steady growth in these sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - VLCC freight rates have shown a 110% increase in Q4 compared to Q3, with one-year charter rates rising by 23%. The report highlights that the second-hand ship prices have yet to reflect these changes [4]. - The Suezmax crude oil tanker rates have decreased by 4% to $71,888 per day, while Aframax rates increased by 3% to $62,987 per day [4]. Air Transportation - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing chain and the ongoing trend of aging aircraft globally. It predicts a significant improvement in airline profitability as the industry approaches a turning point [4]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others, due to their strong demand and supply dynamics [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price stabilization leading to profit recovery, continued competitive pressure, and potential mergers and acquisitions [4]. - Companies to watch include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and ZTO Express, with a focus on their performance in the upcoming annual reports [4]. Road and Rail - The report cites data from the Ministry of Transport indicating that from December 1 to December 7, national railway freight volume was 80.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.35% week-on-week [4]. - The report suggests that the highway sector will benefit from two main investment themes throughout 2025: high dividend yields and potential value management catalysts [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity and convertible bond markets remained in a volatile trend. Micro - cap stocks in major stock indices declined significantly, but the convertible bond market showed relative insensitivity. The negative impact of micro - cap stock declines on convertible bonds was less than that in late August and late November. The valuation of convertible bonds fluctuated in tandem with the market. The 100 - yuan premium rate fluctuated around 30%. Structurally, the valuation of the equity - biased area was better than that of the debt - biased area. Despite multiple negative factors, the convertible bond market showed unexpected resilience, likely due to the under - allocation pressure of institutional investors and the consistent expectation of the "Spring Rally" next year. The convertible bond market is expected to have upside potential [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Outlook - The equity and convertible bond markets continued to fluctuate. Micro - cap stocks fell sharply, but convertible bonds were less affected. The convertible bond valuation oscillated, with the 100 - yuan premium rate around 30%. The equity - biased area's valuation was better, and the convertible bond market showed resilience, with potential upside due to institutional under - allocation and "Spring Rally" expectations [4][5]. 2. Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, the underlying stocks declined slightly, and the convertible bond market was roughly flat with volatile valuations. After excluding outliers, the market - wide convertible bond 100 - yuan premium rate was 29.8%, down 0.1% week - on - week, and at the 99.1% percentile since 2017. The equity - biased area's valuation was better than the debt - biased area. The high - parity area's valuation showed resilience. The debt - biased area's valuation was weak but showed structural differentiation. The median convertible bond price was 130.90 yuan, down 0.71 yuan, and the yield to maturity was - 6.56%, unchanged, at the 97.30% and 1.40% percentiles since 2017 respectively [4][6][13]. 3. Clause Tracking 3.1 Redemption - This week, Hugong and Yingbo Convertible Bonds announced redemptions, while Bojun Convertible Bond announced no redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 67%. There are currently 20 convertible bonds that have issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements but have not delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 4.9 billion yuan. There are 22 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 6 are expected to meet redemption conditions next week, 10 are expected to issue potential redemption announcements, and 9 are expected to enter the forced - redemption counting period within the next month [4][18][20]. 3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Bengang, Jinlangzhuan 02, and Hongchuan Convertible Bonds proposed downward revisions. As of now, 107 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 20 cannot be revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but has not announced, 29 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 5 have issued board proposals for downward revision but have not gone to the shareholders' meeting [4][23]. 3.3 Put Option - This week, Wanqing Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement, and Huahai Convertible Bond has triggered the put - option clause but has not announced. As of now, 4 convertible bonds are accumulating put - option trigger days, 1 of which proposed a downward revision, and 3 are in the non - downward - revision period [4][25]. 4. Primary Issuance - This week, Aohong, Shenyu, and Tianzhun Convertible Bonds were issued, and Dingjie Convertible Bond will be issued next week. As of now, Puxian, Aohong, Shenyu, and Tianzhun Convertible Bonds have been issued but not listed. There are 5 convertible bonds at the registration - approved stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 5.1 billion yuan, and 9 at the listing - committee - approved stage, with a to - be - issued scale of 10 billion yuan [4][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the home appliance sector, indicating a "Buy" rating for key companies within the industry [3][5]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 2.0% while the CSI 300 index fell by only 0.1% [5][6]. - Key developments include the completion of Xiaomi's first major home appliance factory, which marks a significant milestone in its strategy to expand into the home appliance market [15]. - The report highlights a notable increase in sales for cleaning appliances, with robotic vacuum sales rising by 40.65% year-on-year in November 2025 [37]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The home appliance sector index decreased by 2.0%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which saw a minor decline of 0.1% [5][6]. - Key companies such as Aopu Technology led gains with a 1.6% increase, while companies like Oujiahua and Wanhe Electric experienced declines of 7.1% and 6.0% respectively [9][6]. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce is monitoring the impact of Mexico's proposed tax increases on non-free trade partners, which could adversely affect trade relations, including with China [13][14]. - Xiaomi's new smart home appliance factory in Wuhan has officially commenced production, contributing to its broader ecosystem strategy [15]. Data Observations - In November 2025, sales of cleaning appliances showed significant growth, with robotic vacuum sales reaching 535,500 units, a 40.65% increase year-on-year, and sales revenue of 714 million yuan, up 5.83% [37][38]. - The average price of robotic vacuums decreased by 24.75% to 1,334.20 yuan per unit [43]. - Hair dryer sales remained stable with a slight decline in volume but an increase in revenue, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [44]. Macro Economic Environment - As of December 12, 2025, the USD to RMB exchange rate has decreased by 1.73% since the beginning of the year, impacting import costs for the home appliance sector [52][53]. - The report notes a decline in residential property sales, which may influence consumer spending on home appliances [54].