Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 246.08 billion yuan from January to August, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5% [1] - The overall industrial profit for large-scale enterprises in the country was 469.297 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.9% [1] - The prices of key products such as hydrogen peroxide and hydrofluoric acid have risen significantly, indicating a potential upward trend in certain segments of the industry [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Key News Tracking - The profit total for the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry was 246.08 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year [1] - The petroleum and natural gas extraction industry saw a profit total of 236.47 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year [1] Product Price Tracking - WTI oil price decreased by 3.3% to 58.9 USD/barrel [2] - Key chemical products such as pure MDI, acetic acid, organic silicon, titanium dioxide, and DMF saw price increases of 1.1%, 1.1%, 0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.6% respectively [2] - The top five chemical products with the highest price increases included electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid (+10.7%) and sulfur (solid) (+7.3%) [2] Chemical Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector rose by 1.06%, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 1.07% [4][15] - The sub-industries with significant weekly gains included phosphate fertilizers and phosphorus chemicals (+6.36%) and spandex (+5.81%) [16] Focused Sub-industry Insights - Demand stability and global supply dominance are key factors in the industry, with recommendations for companies like Jinhe Industrial and Yangnong Chemical [5] - Domestic demand is expected to counteract tariff impacts, with a focus on refrigerants and fertilizers [5] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in sectors with supply replacement gaps, such as OLED materials and synthetic biology [6]

Group 1 - The current gold bull market has just initiated the most elastic range for gold stocks, with the Wande Gold Industry Index rising by 38% from August 22, 2025, to September 30, 2025, while the price increase is less than previous bull markets [1][26][27] - Gold stocks tend to amplify their volatility in sync with gold prices, often experiencing price increases that are three times greater than the increase in spot gold prices [1][28] - Valuation metrics suggest that market capitalization per unit of production is more suitable for evaluating gold stocks during rapid price increases, as traditional PE ratios may distort due to the rapid rise in EPS [1][28] Group 2 - The precious metals sector continues to show an upward trend, and it is recommended to maintain positions in this sector [3][35] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to show moderate recovery, with manufacturing PMI indicating slight improvements, although still in contraction territory [4][6] - The anticipated economic growth rates for the third and fourth quarters are approximately 4.8% and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively [6] Group 3 - The solid-state battery equipment sector faces challenges related to isostatic pressing technology, which is crucial for improving battery performance and mass production [9][18] - Leading companies in the solid-state battery equipment field, such as Nakanor and AVIC, are focusing on key technologies, although the equipment remains in the R&D and validation stages [9][18] Group 4 - The airline industry is experiencing a surge in inbound tourism, with a 52% increase in foreign visitors from January to August 2025, driven by optimized visa policies [18][19] - The expected growth in inbound tourism is likely to improve supply-demand dynamics in the airline sector, potentially leading to an increase in ticket prices [18][19]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the acceleration of domestic software localization in response to global technology competition and supply chain security demands, indicating that domestic software has the capability to replace foreign counterparts [1][2] - The ecosystem for basic software is rapidly improving, with significant advancements in operating systems and application software localization rates, particularly in ERP software, which has reached a localization rate of 70% [2] - Quantum technology is highlighted as a critical area for national strategic development, with significant investments and policy support from the government, positioning it as a key future industry [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Software Localization - The report notes that key basic software is becoming increasingly self-sufficient, with domestic software showing strong potential for rapid localization [1] - As of 2022, the number of adaptations for operating systems like Tongxin Software and Kirin Software has reached over 530,000 and 440,000 respectively [2] Application Software Localization - The report identifies that while the localization rate for management software (ERP) is at 70%, there is still room for improvement in other areas such as manufacturing software (50%) and R&D design software (10%) [2] Quantum Technology - The report discusses the implications of quantum computing advancements, particularly in relation to national security and information safety, as major companies like Google and IBM are making significant strides in this field [3] - The Chinese government has initiated over 100 supporting policies to promote the development of quantum technology, indicating its strategic importance [3] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in self-sufficiency in software and hardware, including operating systems, chips, industrial software, and quantum technology [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The emergence of billion-level orders in the embodied intelligence sector indicates accelerated commercialization, with significant contracts signed recently, including a multi-billion yuan framework order for the ZhiYuan Spirit G2 robot and a record-breaking 260 million yuan project with ShiHua Cultural Tourism [1][2] - The rapid expansion of the market is supported by strategic collaborations among listed companies and local policies, with the Chinese embodied intelligence market expected to reach 5.295 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for approximately 27% of the global market [2] - The industry is witnessing a systematic leap, driven by technological breakthroughs and supportive policies, solidifying China's leading position in the global robotics industry [2] Company Summaries - **Aobi Zhongguang**: A leading company in 3D visual perception, deeply partnered with Microsoft and Nvidia, holding over 70% market share in domestic service robot visual sensors [3] - **Keli Sensor**: A leading manufacturer of strain sensors, with a complete product series developed for humanoid robots, mastering key technologies such as structural decoupling and high-speed sampling communication [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [5] Core Views - The company has shown a gradual increase in the revenue contribution from its self-operated Hush Puppies men's and women's clothing line, which reached 22.87% in the first half of 2025, with expectations to grow to 10.06% by the end of 2024 [1] - The financial performance for the first half of 2025 indicates a revenue of 500 million yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 31% to 60 million yuan [1] - The company has acquired full-category IP assets of the Hush Puppies brand in mainland China and Hong Kong, enhancing its brand matrix and market presence [2] Financial Performance Summary - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 1.14 billion, 1.21 billion, and 1.30 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 140 million, 160 million, and 190 million yuan [3] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 19x, 17x, and 15x respectively [3] - The financial data indicates a slight revenue growth of 0.76% in 2023, followed by a projected decline of 4.57% in 2024, and a recovery with 4.05% growth in 2025 [4] Brand and Market Position - The Hush Puppies brand, established in 1958, has become the company's main proprietary brand following the acquisition of its IP assets [2] - The company also operates other well-known brands, including children's clothing brand "Water Child" and the licensed brand "Hazzys," which reflects a diverse brand matrix [2]

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 关税升级：4 月重现 or TACO 交易 证券研究报告 海外时政点评 特朗普提出对华征收 100%关税，打破中美关税"平静期"。 当地时间 10 月 10 日，特朗普在社交媒体发帖，称将从 11 月 1 日开始对 中国征收 100%的关税，并对所有关键软件实施出口管制。 9 月中下旬，市场对中美关税的情绪偏乐观，对中美元首在 10 月底的 APEC 会议上会晤怀有期待，9 月 14-15 日的马德里经贸会谈，中美就 TikTok 等 问题进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的沟通，9 月 19 日中美元首通话，通 话是务实、积极、建设性的。 而国庆假期后，情绪有所转变。中方宣布对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅料、 钬等 5 种中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制； 对美国对造船等行业 301 调查限制措施实施反制；对高通公司开展反垄断 调查等。特朗普宣布计划对中国商品征收 100%关税。 关税和贸易谈判，后续或如何演绎？ 我们认为，不断升级的贸易措施计划，或是为未来的谈判增加筹码。中方 加强对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅料等的出口管制，是从 11 月 8 日实施； 而特朗普宣称的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overseas market was significantly impacted by various factors this week, including government shutdowns, potential tariff hikes, and central bank policies. Market volatility increased, and risk - averse sentiment rose sharply [1][7]. - The opinions of Fed officials were divided this week, but the market's expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 both increased [2][3]. - The US government shutdown continued to affect the economy, and the situation of Sino - US tariffs and trade relations was tense [4][5]. - The overall overseas economic situation showed mixed trends. Some indicators improved, while others declined, and the future economic outlook was still uncertain [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity Markets**: US stocks rose first and then fell sharply on Friday. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq fell 2.43%, 2.73%, and 2.53% respectively for the week ending October 10. European and Asian markets also showed different trends, with the German DAX and London FTSE 100 falling, while the Nikkei 225 rose [11]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar rose this week. The government shutdown and tariff risks increased risk - averse sentiment, and the possible loose monetary policy of Japan's new prime - ministerial candidate also pushed up the dollar. The dollar index rose 1.13% for the week [11]. - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields declined. The government shutdown and tariff events increased expectations of interest rate cuts and risk - averse sentiment, leading to a rise in US Treasuries. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries yields fell 6bp and 8bp respectively for the week [12]. - **Commodities**: Gold rose, while crude oil and copper fell. The government shutdown and Sino - US trade conflicts increased the demand for safe - haven assets [12]. 3.2 Overseas Policies and Important News 3.2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - Fed officials' stances were divided this week. Kashkari and Barr were hawkish, Milan and Williams were dovish, and Musalem and Waller were neutral. The September FOMC meeting minutes showed that most officials thought further policy easing this year might be appropriate [27]. - Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 increased. As of October 11, the probability of two more interest rate cuts this year rose to 91.7%, and the market expected three more cuts in 2026 [3]. 3.2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Government Shutdown**: It has lasted for 12 days, reducing the US economic output by about $15 billion per week. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report on October 24, and the federal government employee lay - off process has officially started [4]. - **Sino - US Tariffs and Trade**: China implemented export controls on certain items, counter - measures against US 301 investigations, and an anti - monopoly investigation into Qualcomm. Trump said the US would impose a 100% tariff on China starting November 1 and implement export controls on all key software [5]. 3.3 Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking 3.3.1 Overall Prosperity - Bloomberg's consensus expectations for GDP growth rates in the Eurozone and the US increased. As of October 10, Bloomberg expected the US economy to grow 1.79% in 2025 and the Eurozone economy to grow 1.3% [35]. - The Fed's real - time prediction model slightly lowered the GDP forecast. The New York Fed's Nowcast model lowered the Q3 US real GDP growth rate expectation to 2.34%, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model lowered it to 3.8% [37]. 3.3.2 Employment - The number of people receiving unemployment benefits decreased more than expected. As of the week ending September 20, the initial jobless claims were 218,000, and as of the week ending September 13, the continuing jobless claims decreased to 1.926 million [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - US retail sales slightly declined, airport security checks continued to be higher than last year. The real - estate market activity showed a significant recovery, with mortgage rates falling and mortgage application activity decreasing [49]. 3.3.4 Production - The production of US crude steel and the operation of refineries were stable, better than the same period last year. As of the week ending October 4, the weekly crude steel output was 1.749 million short tons, and the refinery capacity utilization rate was 92.4% [55]. 3.3.5 Shipping - International freight rates showed mixed trends this week. The Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) fell 1.1%, while the Baltic Dry Index, Panamax Freight Index, and Capesize Freight Index rose [57]. - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) fell. The export container indices of Ningbo and Shanghai rose, but the CCFI fell 6.7% week - on - week [60]. 3.3.6 Price - US retail gasoline prices continued to decline. As of October 10, the average price of AAA - grade gasoline was $3.089 per gallon. The inflation expectations in the US also decreased this week [62]. 3.3.7 Financial Conditions - The US financial stress index was stable. As of October 8, the OFR US financial stress index was - 1.12. The credit spread of CCC high - yield bonds rose, and the spread between SOFR and overnight reverse repurchase agreements decreased [66]. 3.4 Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders - Next week (October 13 - 17, 2025), key events include Fed Chairman Powell's speech, statements from multiple Fed officials, Sino - US tariff developments, and the release of US retail data, PPI inflation, and industrial output data (which may be delayed due to the government shutdown) [7].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [11] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing comprehensive losses, with a focus on the expected differences in the sector [3][15] - The dairy and beef sectors are anticipated to enter a new cycle, with opportunities in the beef industry [4][17] - The pet industry is witnessing a rise of domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports [5][19] - The poultry sector is focusing on breeding gaps and improving consumer demand for yellow chickens [6][24] - The seed industry is waiting for a turnaround, emphasizing opportunities in biological breeding [7][27] - The feed sector is recommended for companies with increasing market share and consistent performance [8][28] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The industry is in comprehensive losses, with a significant drop in pig prices, down 9.37% to 11.41 CNY/kg as of October 11 [15] - The average loss per pig is 77.09 CNY, with a notable increase in the number of sows being culled [15][16] - Key companies to focus on include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with valuations at historical lows [3][16] Beef Sector - Raw milk prices are stabilizing, and the beef cycle may have started, with a focus on companies with mother cow resources [4][17] - The average price of live cattle is 27.16 CNY/kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [17] Pet Industry - Domestic brands are rapidly growing, with significant sales increases in pet food, particularly on platforms like Douyin [5][18] - Pet food exports reached 230,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.23% [19] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is focusing on breeding imports, with a 21.78% year-on-year decrease in breeding stock [21][22] - Yellow chicken prices are expected to improve due to supply constraints and increasing consumer demand [24] Seed Industry - The seed industry is expected to see a turnaround, with a focus on high-yield production and the integration of advanced agricultural technologies [27] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [27] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted for its increasing market share and consistent performance in the feed sector [28] - The sector is expected to recover as smaller companies exit the market, leading to improved conditions [28]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations have led to relatively strong performance in precious metals, with gold and silver prices rising due to heightened risk aversion amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][20][21] - The report emphasizes the impact of new export control policies on rare earths, which are expected to strengthen China's competitive edge in the industry and have long-term implications for the entire supply chain [1][3] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have risen, reaching 85,910 CNY/ton, driven by supply shocks and increased export expectations, despite weak domestic demand [1][12] - Aluminum prices increased to 20,980 CNY/ton, with slight reductions in theoretical production capacity due to regional capacity transfers and maintenance [1][15] - Gold prices reached an average of 871.03 CNY/gram, up 3.99% from the previous week, while silver prices rose to 10,856 CNY/kg, up 6.72% [1][20] Minor Metals - Antimony prices have decreased, with 2 high bismuth antimony ingot at 166,500 CNY/ton, reflecting a weak market due to ongoing supply issues and cautious demand [2] - The report notes that the antimony market remains weak, with limited replenishment observed post-holiday [2] Rare Earths - The report discusses the impact of new export control policies on the rare earth industry, with prices for light rare earths slightly decreasing while medium and heavy rare earths saw minor increases [3] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, and processing fees have risen, indicating a potential upward trend in valuations for the sector [3] Outlook - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum for potential investment opportunities based on the current market dynamics [1][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since August, the pace of changes in the supply - demand structure of the convertible bond market has accelerated. On the demand side, insurance funds have rapidly and significantly reduced their holdings of convertible bonds, while the demand from public funds has remained stable. On the supply side, although the number of forced redemptions has increased significantly since August, the enthusiasm for new convertible bond proposals has been high, and the review speed has marginally accelerated [1][10][14]. - The A - share market fluctuated sharply this week. The current A - share market valuation has significantly recovered. Large - scale equipment renewal and consumer product trade - in measures are expected to boost domestic demand, and the export growth rate may decline. The Fed has re - entered the interest rate cut cycle, and the weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital side is expected to gradually start [27]. - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is expected to be low. The risk of a correction in convertible bond valuations has been temporarily alleviated. However, in the context of stock market volatility and the strong "taking - profits" sentiment of institutions in the fourth quarter, the short - term profit - making effect of the convertible bond market may be weak. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunities of convertible bonds in a volatile market [28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special Topic and Outlook 1.1 What are the Highlights of New Convertible Bond Issues? - Since August, the demand - side of the convertible bond market has seen insurance funds significantly reducing their holdings, while public funds have increased their positions. On the supply - side, new convertible bond proposals have been actively submitted, and the review speed has accelerated. For example, in August, 18 new convertible bond proposals passed the board of directors, reaching the level of March 2023. In September, 17 proposals passed the general meeting of shareholders, and 7 passed the listing committee review, reaching the level of January 2024 [1][10][14]. - As of October 10, there are 4 convertible bond proposals awaiting issuance after obtaining the CSRC's approval for registration, and 8 public convertible bond proposals have passed the listing committee review, with a total scale of 530.5 million yuan. The industry distribution of these convertible bonds is mainly in TMT, advanced manufacturing, and cyclical industries [15][20]. 1.2 Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the A - share market fluctuated sharply. Before the holiday, the A - share market rose, with the new energy industry chain and semiconductors leading the gains. After the holiday, the market first rose and then fell. The current A - share market valuation has recovered, and domestic demand is expected to be boosted, but the export growth rate may decline [27]. - In the convertible bond market, the subsequent issuance pressure is expected to be low. The short - term profit - making effect may be weak, and attention should be paid to band - trading opportunities. Industries to focus on include popular themes such as semiconductors and AI, domestic - demand - oriented sectors, and central state - owned enterprises under the China - specific valuation system [28][29]. 2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 2.1 The Equity Market Style is Differentiated, and Pro - cyclical Sectors are Strengthening - From September 29 to October 10, the equity market showed mixed performance. The market style was more inclined to large - cap growth stocks. 26 Shenwan industry indices rose, and 5 declined. The non - ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemical industries led the gains [32][34]. 2.2 The Convertible Bond Market Rose Narrowly, and the Premium Rate for 100 - yuan Par Value Rebounded - From September 29 to October 10, the convertible bond market rose. The average daily trading volume decreased. Most individual bonds rose. The non - ferrous metals, beauty care, and non - bank financial industries led the gains in the convertible bond market, while the communication industry declined [38][39]. - The weighted conversion value of the entire market increased, and the premium rate rose. The median price of convertible bonds increased, and the number of medium - and low - priced convertible bonds decreased [45][49]. 2.3 High - frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 2.3.1 Classification Valuation Changes - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds increased. Among different par - value convertible bonds, the valuation of 80 - 90 yuan par - value convertible bonds increased more significantly. The valuations of AA + and AA - rated convertible bonds decreased, while those of other ratings increased. The valuations of large - cap and small - cap convertible bonds increased significantly, while those of other scales decreased [60]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom [60]. 2.3.2 Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings and scales rose. Since 2023, high - rated AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rated convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline ability and greater rebound strength [71]. 3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.1 This Week's Primary Proposals Issuance - This week, there were no newly listed convertible bonds, and there were 3 convertible bonds awaiting listing, with a total scale of 730.2 million yuan. The number of primary approvals was 10 [76]. - From the beginning of 2023 to October 10, 2025, there were 103 convertible bond proposals in total, with a total scale of 15.8329 billion yuan. The number and scale of proposals at different stages vary [77]. 3.2 Downward Revision & Redemption Clauses - This week, 9 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revisions, 4 announced no downward revisions, 0 proposed downward revisions, and 1 actually carried out a downward revision. Six convertible bonds were expected to trigger redemptions, 0 announced no redemptemptempt 0 announced no redemptions, and 5 announced early redemptions [5][83][84]. - As of the end of this week, there were 0 convertible bonds in the put - option declaration period and 9 in the company's capital - reduction repayment declaration period [88].