固定收益 | 固定收益定期固定收益定期 流动性跟踪 证券研究报告 跨季后资金面有哪些关注点？ 1、资金面聚焦：跨季后资金面有哪些关注点？ 本周资金面整体平稳，临近跨季波动有所增加，7 天资金利率大幅上行， 上半周政府债发行规模较大。但央行呵护意图较为明显，全周逆回购投放 超 2 万亿元，存单发行利率低波震荡、小幅上行，跨季资金整体无虞。 下周，政府债发行规模回落至 721 亿元。其中，无国债发行，地方债发行 721 亿元、净缴款 742 亿元，供给压力明显缓和。 4、货币市场：本周 7 天资金利率大幅上行 资金利率多数上行：截至 6/27，DR001 下行 0.59BP 至 1.37%，DR007 上行 20.27BP 至 1.7%，R001 上行 1.22BP 至 1.46%，R007 上行 32.91BP 至 1.92%。 本周，银行体系资金净融出平均 3.86 万亿元，较上周变动-1067 亿元。其 中，国有大行净融出平均 3.98 万亿元，较上周变动-3931 亿元，隔夜占比 90%，较上周变动-7.39%。 5、同业存单 本周，同业存单发行总额为 7264 亿元，净融资额为-3827 亿元，相较上周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 78.01 HKD per share, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company has approved a stock option plan and a restricted share unit plan, which will be subject to shareholder approval. A total of 6.985 million stock options and restricted share units have been conditionally granted to 279 participants, including 75,000 each to the CEO [1][2]. - The HLX43 PD-L1 ADC has completed dosing in an international Phase II clinical trial, marking it as the first PD-L1 ADC to enter this stage globally. Initial Phase I data showed promising safety and efficacy results in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 5.873 billion, 5.970 billion, and 7.125 billion HKD for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 2.60%, 1.64%, and 19.36% respectively. Net profits attributable to shareholders are expected to be 827 million, 797 million, and 1.122 billion HKD for the same years [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the economic situation in the current week, covering aspects such as demand, production, investment, trade, prices, and interest - rate bonds. It shows that the real - estate market is still at a low level, while the automotive consumption is warming up. Industrial production is stable, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong. Trade shows an upward trend, but prices of some commodities are falling. The issuance of interest - rate bonds has a certain progress [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Demand: New home sales decline year - on - year, while automotive consumption continues to recover - New home sales: The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 20 cities increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, far below the seasonal level. High - tier cities saw a narrowing decline in new home sales year - on - year, while low - tier cities had a larger decline. The sales area of second - hand housing in key cities mostly decreased week - on - week [1][11][27]. - Consumption: The daily average retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increased significantly week - on - week. Movie consumption was below the seasonal level, and travel performance was divided. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, while the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities recovered [1]. 3.2 Production: Industrial production runs smoothly, and infrastructure construction starts remain strong - Mid - and upstream: The blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan remained basically flat, the rebar operating rate increased, the PTA operating rate decreased week - on - week, and the operating rates of polyester filament and petroleum asphalt plants increased week - on - week, indicating a possible marginal improvement in infrastructure construction starts [2][44]. - Downstream: The operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles continued to rise, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly week - on - week. The absolute value of semi - steel tires was still higher than the same period in previous years. The trade - in subsidy policy may support the production side in the short term [2][44]. 3.3 Investment: The apparent consumption of rebar recovers, and cement prices decline The apparent consumption of rebar improved, and its price decreased week - on - week. The cement shipping rate decreased, the cement storage capacity ratio increased, and the cement price declined [3][59]. 3.4 Trade: Port throughput increases, and export container shipping prices continue to rise - Export: The container throughput of ports increased, and the CCFI composite index rebounded week - on - week. Freight rates on European routes increased, those on the US West Coast routes decreased, and those on Southeast Asian routes remained basically flat. In addition, the BDI index also declined [4][71]. - Import: Container shipping prices increased, and the CICFI composite index rose slightly by 1.2% week - on - week [4][71]. 3.5 Prices: Agricultural product prices are weak, and international crude oil prices decline - CPI: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices dropped by 0.2% week - on - week. Pork and fruit prices decreased, while egg and vegetable prices rebounded slightly [5][82]. - PPI: Commodity and metal price indices declined. The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, Brent crude oil spot price dropped by 8.2% week - on - week, COMEX gold futures price decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and LME copper spot price increased by 1.8% week - on - week [5][90]. 3.6 Interest - rate Bond Tracking: The cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year reaches 90% - Next week (June 30 - July 4), the disclosed issuance of interest - rate bonds is 97.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 39.5 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance of national bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 80.2 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds is 72.1 billion yuan, with a net financing of 21.7 billion yuan [6][101]. - As of June 27, the issuance scale of replacement bonds this year is 1.7959 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 89.8%; the issuance of new general bonds is 445.4 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 55.7%; the issuance of new special bonds is 2.1127 trillion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 48.0% [6]. - 29 provinces and municipalities directly under the central government have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total planned issuance scale of 2.5868 trillion yuan [6][112]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation: The central bank's second - quarter regular meeting emphasizes flexible policy implementation - On June 24, the Ministry of Finance stated that the final accounts were generally good and would implement a more proactive fiscal policy [114]. - On June 23, the central bank's policy committee held its second - quarter regular meeting in 2025, suggesting to increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation and flexibly control the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [115]. - On June 24, six departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption" [116]. - On June 25 (local time), Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates [117]. - On June 25, Guangdong Province implemented policies on off - site provident fund loans and withdrawals for off - site house purchases [118]. - On June 26, Qingdao City optimized and adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy [119].

金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 基于投资者偏好因子构建增强沪深 300 组合，历史回测超额收益稳定。本 年组合相对沪深 300 指数超额收益为 13.23%；本周超额收益为-0.10%；本 月超额收益为 2.40%。 净利润断层本周超额基准 3.24% 戴维斯双击策略 戴维斯双击即指以较低的市盈率买入具有成长潜力的股票，待成长性显现、 市盈率相应提高后卖出，获得乘数效应的收益，即 EPS 和 PE 的"双击"。 策略在 2010-2017 年回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益，超额基准 21.08%。 今年以来，策略累计绝对收益 16.55%，超额中证 500 指数 14.14%，本周策 略超额中证 500 指数-0.15%。本期组合于 2025-05-06 日开盘调仓，截至 2025-06-27 日，本期组合超额基准指数 1.75%。 净利润断层策略 净利润断层策略是基本面与技术面共振双击下的选股模式，其核心有两点： "净利润"，指通常意义上的业绩超预期；"断层"，指盈余公告后的首个交 易日股价出现向上跳空，该跳空通常代表市场对盈余报告的认可程度。 策略在 2010 年至今取得了年化 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for COFCO Technology with a target price of 6.8 CNY, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.2 for 2025 [5][3]. Core Views - COFCO Technology is a leading player in the domestic corn deep processing industry, with its dividend value becoming more prominent as performance improves. The company has a strong cost control capability, which has allowed it to turn a profit in 2024 despite low corn prices [1][3]. - The company is focusing on sustainable business models centered around biotechnology, with significant developments in bioenergy, fermentation products, and biodegradable materials [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - COFCO Technology, controlled by COFCO Group, has established a comprehensive corn processing industry layout covering food, food ingredients, bioenergy, and biodegradable materials. It is recognized as a leading corn deep processing enterprise in terms of scale and technology [1][13]. Main Business Segments 1. **Bioenergy**: - The company is a leader in fuel ethanol production with a capacity of 1.35 million tons, accounting for 23% of the national total. The industry is currently experiencing a slowdown, prompting the company to diversify into high-end alcohol and carbon dioxide utilization [2][31]. 2. **Fermentation Products & Starch Raw Materials**: - COFCO Technology is a leading producer of starch sugars, focusing on products like fructose syrup and maltodextrin. The company plans to expand its production capacity significantly by 2025 [2][46]. 3. **Biodegradable Materials**: - The main product is polylactic acid (PLA), with applications in packaging and agriculture. The company is advancing its biodegradable materials business through subsidiaries and plans to enhance its production capabilities [2][72]. Financial Forecast & Valuation Analysis - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.62 billion, 21.25 billion, and 22.97 billion CNY, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.02 million, 1.64 million, and 2.34 million CNY for the same period [3][4]. - The report highlights the company's strong recovery in profitability, with a net profit of over 40 million CNY in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 63.17% [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for COFCO Technology to explore sustainable development models centered on biotechnology, which could enhance its dividend value as performance improves [3][5].

Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Small Market Cap - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the size effect, where smaller market capitalization stocks tend to outperform larger ones over time [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: The factor is calculated as the logarithm of the market capitalization of a stock [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrated strong performance in recent periods, particularly over the past week, month, and year [8][10] 2. Factor Name: Beta - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the sensitivity of a stock's returns to market returns, capturing systematic risk [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: Beta is calculated as the regression coefficient of a stock's returns against market returns over the past 490 trading days [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor showed strong performance in recent periods, particularly over the past week and month [8][10] 3. Factor Name: 1-Month Specificity - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the idiosyncratic component of stock returns, independent of systematic factors [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: It is calculated as \( 1 - R^2 \), where \( R^2 \) is derived from regressing daily stock returns against the Fama-French three-factor model over the past 20 trading days [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor exhibited strong performance in the past week, month, and year [8][10] 4. Factor Name: 1-Month Reversal - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the short-term reversal effect, where stocks with poor recent performance tend to rebound [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: It is calculated as the cumulative return of a stock over the past 20 trading days [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor performed well over the past year [8][10] 5. Factor Name: Fama-French 1-Month Residual Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the residual volatility of stock returns after accounting for systematic factors [13] - **Factor Construction Process**: It is calculated as the standard deviation of residuals from regressing daily stock returns against the Fama-French three-factor model over the past 20 trading days [13] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor demonstrated strong performance over the past year [8][10] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Small Market Cap - **IC Performance**: Weekly IC: 15.09%, Monthly IC: 6.09%, Yearly IC: 3.61%, Historical IC: 2.20% [9] - **Excess Return Performance**: Weekly: 1.67%, Monthly: 2.75%, Yearly: 18.13%, Historical Cumulative: 66.36% [11] 2. Beta - **IC Performance**: Weekly IC: 13.20%, Monthly IC: 5.67%, Yearly IC: 1.79%, Historical IC: 0.38% [9] - **Excess Return Performance**: Weekly: 1.85%, Monthly: 2.84%, Yearly: 9.25%, Historical Cumulative: -8.52% [11] 3. 1-Month Specificity - **IC Performance**: Weekly IC: 11.75%, Monthly IC: 6.36%, Yearly IC: 3.19%, Historical IC: 2.40% [9] - **Excess Return Performance**: Weekly: 1.38%, Monthly: 1.99%, Yearly: 9.59%, Historical Cumulative: 16.77% [11] 4. 1-Month Reversal - **IC Performance**: Weekly IC: 9.55%, Monthly IC: 3.46%, Yearly IC: 3.54%, Historical IC: 2.23% [9] - **Excess Return Performance**: Weekly: 1.25%, Monthly: 0.32%, Yearly: 4.73%, Historical Cumulative: -0.81% [11] 5. Fama-French 1-Month Residual Volatility - **IC Performance**: Weekly IC: 4.67%, Monthly IC: 5.09%, Yearly IC: 3.37%, Historical IC: 2.54% [9] - **Excess Return Performance**: Weekly: 0.44%, Monthly: 1.59%, Yearly: 9.67%, Historical Cumulative: 19.58% [11]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025 年 06 月 27 日 作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 裴明楠 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525060004 peimingnan@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：信用主体骑乘库一览- 信用策略系列》 2025-06-26 美国经济观察 美国到"衰退"门槛还有多远？ 从 NBER 六大指标看，美国经济尚无"衰退"信号。今年 3 月以来，市场 持续下调美国经济增速预期，美国一季度 GDP 增速下修至-0.5%。美国经 济是否真的被"透支"空了呢？ NBER 采用 6 个底层指标判定"经济衰退 期"，截至今年 4 月，仅有 1 项指标进入明确下行趋势，4 项处于波动，1 项仍在上行趋势。 一季度美国 GDP 负增长是"技术性"现象。一季度美国 GDP 修正值-0.5% （季调环比折年率，下同），主因企业在关税前囤货，贸易逆差大增，"净 出口"拖累 GDP 增速 4 ...

一级发行如何？整体来看，2025 年以来城投债发行政策仍处于严监管态势 之下，未有大幅放松，仍以借新还旧为主。2025 年以来发行及偿还端较 2024 年同期均减少，净融资继续下滑，但下滑幅度不算大。 分省来看，截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日，与历年同期相比：（1）12 省中 10 省 净融资回正；（2）山东、河南、江西、福建、上海等区域净融资较去年同 期下滑较多；（3）湖南区域仍有较大的净融资缺口。 固定收益 | 固定收益专题 固定收益 证券研究报告 低票息时代下的城投资产选择 上半年城投债市场表现如何？ 二级市场表现如何？2025 年以来城投债走势可大致分为 3 个阶段： （1）年初-3 月中旬：年初受春节前影响，资金面呈现紧平衡状态。春节 后，资金面紧张格局未扭转，短端利率受影响调整幅度较大，后传导至长 端，城投债收益率随之被动抬升，信用利差因利率上行被动走阔。（2）3 月中旬-4 月：3 月下旬，MLF 操作方式调整叠加央行净投放资金，资金 面边际宽松。4 月美国对中国加征"超预期关税"及中国反制措施引发市 场避险需求，推动利率下行，带动城投债收益率同步下行，信用利差也被 动收窄。（3）5 月以 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jianghe Group is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - Jianghe Group has secured multiple landmark projects in Saudi Arabia, including a subcontract for the Jeddah Tower project worth approximately 2.012 billion RMB, which is expected to contribute 8.98% to the company's revenue in 2024 [1] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with a focus on regions such as Saudi Arabia, Dubai, Thailand, and Vietnam, and has established subsidiaries in Dubai and Saudi Arabia [2] - The company has achieved significant growth in overseas orders, with a total of 7.63 billion RMB in new orders for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 57% [2] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue for Jianghe Group is expected to grow from 20,954.28 million RMB in 2023 to 28,461.95 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.77% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 671.74 million RMB in 2023, decreasing to 637.70 million RMB in 2024, and then gradually increasing to 747.46 million RMB by 2027 [4] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 620 million RMB for 2024, resulting in a high dividend yield of 10.2% [3] Summary of Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are projected at 16.05% for 2023, 6.93% for 2024, and gradually increasing to 8.77% by 2027 [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.59 RMB in 2023, slightly decreasing to 0.56 RMB in 2024, and then increasing to 0.66 RMB by 2027 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 9.28 in 2023 to 8.34 by 2027, indicating potential value for investors [4]

作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 唐梦涵 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525060002 tangmenghan@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：信用主体骑乘库一览- 信用策略系列》 2025-06-26 固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025 年 06 月 27 日 2 《固定收益：固定收益专题-建筑行 业系列一》 2025-06-24 3 《固定收益：可转债周报 20250622- 近期评级调整怎么看？》 2025-06-22 可转债 2025 年中期策略 证券研究报告 顺势布局，掘金赛道 25H1，权益与转债市场行情复盘 小盘风格占优，医药与金融地产股领涨，转债资产表现优异。年初以来， 小微盘风格占优，中证 2000、可转债对应正股指数分别涨 7.53%、9.64%， 领跑市场，沪深 300、科创 50 则分别录得 2.24%、3.14%跌幅；产业链 来看，医药板块、金融地产板块分别上涨 4.60 ...