Market Analysis - The market shows a calendar effect around the National Day holiday, with a median return of -0.81% in the five trading days before the holiday and a strong median return of 2.27% in the first five trading days after the holiday, with an 80% win rate [1][11][12] - Post-holiday, small-cap indices lead the gains in the first phase, while the second phase sees a general pullback, followed by a resurgence in small-cap performance in the third phase, and a stronger performance from large-cap indices in the fourth phase [2][16][18] Domestic Economic Indicators - Industrial enterprise profits saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.40% in August, with cumulative profits turning positive for the first eight months of the year [3][27] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, highlighting challenges such as insufficient domestic demand [3][38][39] - The transportation sector shows a decline in subway passenger volume, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior [3][41] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index growth aligns with market expectations, indicating stable inflationary pressures, with a probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October at 87.7% [4][53][54] Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, economic recovery with a "stronger stronger" market style, and the continued rise of undervalued sectors [5][56]

2025 年 09 月 28 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市（维持评级） | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 行业报告 | 行业研究周报 作者 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 曾先毅 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 行业走势图 资料来源：聚源数据 相关报告 1 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:降息预 期兑现，有色阶段性回调》2025-09-21 2 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:降息预 期强化，工业金属和贵金属共振》 2025-09-14 3 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:八月非 金属与材料 证券研究报告 铜：Grasberg 影响定量，强化矿紧逻辑 基本金属：铜价突破领涨有色，铝市成本下移静待需求改善。1）铜：本周铜价震荡上行，沪铜收于 81890 元/吨。本周国内沪铜盘面 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Views - The pig farming sector has entered a loss phase, with a focus on the negative expectations for the sector. The average price of pigs has dropped to 12.76 CNY/kg, a decrease of 1.39% from the previous week, leading to a loss of 54 CNY per head for self-breeding and self-raising operations [2][11]. - The dairy and beef sectors are experiencing a potential new cycle, with a significant reduction in dairy cow inventory by nearly 8%. The price of raw milk is expected to bottom out, while beef prices may see an upward trend [3][13]. - The pet industry is witnessing the rise of domestic brands, with a notable increase in pet food exports, indicating a robust growth in the pet economy [4][14]. - The poultry sector is facing challenges with breeding imports and consumer demand, particularly for white and yellow chickens, while egg-laying enterprises are achieving record profits [5][20]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming Sector - The industry is currently in a loss phase, with the average pig price at 12.76 CNY/kg and a loss of 54 CNY per head for self-breeding operations. The average weight of pigs at slaughter is at a historical high [2][11]. - The market is expected to see a reduction in production capacity due to ongoing low prices and policy guidance [12]. Beef and Dairy Sector - The price of live cattle is 27.14 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3%. The raw milk price is stable at 3.03 CNY/kg, with expectations for a recovery in prices as production capacity clears [3][13]. - Companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [13]. Pet Industry - The domestic pet food market is growing rapidly, with significant sales increases noted in both cat and dog food categories. Exports of pet food have also risen, reflecting a healthy market [4][14]. - Key companies to watch include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [4][14]. Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector is facing uncertainties in breeding imports, with a 26.9% year-on-year decrease in breeding stock updates. The yellow chicken market is sensitive to demand changes, with expectations for price improvements in the latter half of the year [5][19]. - Leading companies in the poultry sector include Shengnong Development and Yisheng Co. [17][19]. Seed and Agricultural Sector - The seed industry is poised for a turnaround, with a focus on biotechnology and transgenic crops to enhance production efficiency. Key companies include Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong [6][22]. - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from policies aimed at increasing crop yields and improving food security [22]. Feed and Animal Health Sector - The feed sector is recommended for investment, particularly Haida Group, which is expected to gain market share as smaller competitors exit the market [7][23]. - The animal health sector is focusing on innovative products to break through market saturation, with a growing demand in the pet health market [7][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 9.843 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.66%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 78 million yuan, up 258.01%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items soared by 1602.64% to 78 million yuan [1]. - The platform business saw a slight revenue decline to 436 million yuan in H1 2025, but the company enhanced product diversity, increasing the average monthly SKU count to approximately 4 million, significantly meeting diverse user needs [2]. - The self-operated business generated 9.389 billion yuan in revenue, a 12.5% increase year-on-year, with improvements in operational capabilities across four dimensions: product variety, delivery speed, quality, and cost efficiency [3]. - The proprietary brand business recorded a transaction scale of 1.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115.6%, with proprietary brand transactions reaching 852 million yuan, up approximately 473.4% [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with net profit estimates adjusted to 179 million yuan, 403 million yuan, and 650 million yuan respectively, indicating strong growth potential [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 9.843 billion yuan, with a significant increase in net profit and cash flow, indicating robust financial health [1]. Platform Business - The platform business experienced a slight revenue decline but improved product offerings, focusing on traditional Chinese medicine with a notable increase in SKU count [2]. Self-Operated Business - The self-operated segment showed strong revenue growth, with enhancements in delivery efficiency and product quality, contributing to overall operational improvements [3]. Proprietary Brand Business - The proprietary brand initiative has become a key growth driver, with substantial increases in transaction volumes, showcasing the effectiveness of the brand strategy [4]. Profit Forecasts - The upward revision of profit forecasts reflects confidence in the company's growth trajectory, supported by strong performance in both platform and self-operated businesses [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company's domestic performance is under short-term pressure due to factors such as medical insurance cost control and intensified market competition, while its overseas business continues to grow significantly [2][4] - The company has seen a decline in its main business revenue domestically, with a 21.08% decrease to 5.42 billion yuan, while overseas revenue increased by 26.00% to 1.29 billion yuan [2] - The company is advancing its self-produced instruments and assembly lines steadily, with a total of 546 new installations domestically and 544 installations overseas in the first half of 2025 [3] - The company has launched innovative digital business initiatives, including a diabetes management platform and an intelligent clinical laboratory software system, enhancing its AI+IVD strategy [4] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 808 million yuan, a decrease of 15.79% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 26.27 million yuan, down 84.82% year-on-year [1] - The company’s R&D expense ratio increased to 17.41%, reflecting a focus on innovation despite the revenue decline [3] - The financial forecast estimates operating revenues of 2.19 billion yuan, 2.58 billion yuan, and 3.05 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 564 million yuan, 580 million yuan, and 583 million yuan for the same years [4][10]

Group 1: Davis Double-Click Strategy - The Davis Double-Click strategy involves buying stocks with growth potential at lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, selling them once growth is realized and PE increases, thus achieving a "double-click" effect on earnings per share (EPS) and PE [1][8] - The strategy achieved an annualized return of 26.45% during the backtest period from 2010 to 2017, outperforming the benchmark by 21.08% [1][9] - Year-to-date, the strategy has delivered an absolute return of 54.23%, exceeding the CSI 500 index by 27.77%, with a weekly excess return of 0.52% [1][10] Group 2: Net Profit Gap Strategy - The Net Profit Gap strategy focuses on selecting stocks based on fundamental and technical resonance, where "net profit" refers to earnings surprises and "gap" indicates a significant upward price jump on the first trading day after earnings announcements [2][12] - Since 2010, this strategy has achieved an annualized return of 29.39%, outperforming the benchmark by 26.34% [2][13] - The current year's absolute return for the strategy is 56.13%, with an excess return over the benchmark of 29.67%, although it recorded a weekly excess return of -0.30% [2][13] Group 3: Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio - The Enhanced CSI 300 Portfolio is constructed based on investor preferences, including GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price), growth, and value investing styles, utilizing PB-ROE and PEG factors to identify undervalued stocks with strong profitability and growth potential [3][15] - The strategy has shown stable excess returns in historical backtesting, with a year-to-date excess return of 17.56% over the CSI 300 index, a weekly excess return of -0.60%, and a monthly excess return of 1.01% [3][17]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the market is in an upward trend, with the key observation variable being whether the market's profit effect can be sustained. As long as the profit effect remains positive, incremental funds are expected to continue entering the market [2][10][14] - The current WIND All A trend line is around 6184 points, with a profit effect of approximately 0.66%, still positive. It is advised to hold positions until the profit effect turns negative [2][10][14] - The industry allocation model suggests that the precious metals sector is still in an upward trend and should be monitored. Additionally, sectors benefiting from policy-driven initiatives, such as new energy and chemicals, are expected to perform well [2][10][14] Market Overview - The market is currently showing a profit effect of about 0.66%, indicating a positive environment for investment. The report suggests maintaining positions until the profit effect turns negative [2][10][14] - The valuation indicators for the WIND All A index show a PE at the 85th percentile and a PB at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level [2][10][14] - The report recommends an 80% allocation to absolute return products based on the current market conditions and trends [2][10][14] Industry Focus - The report highlights the precious metals sector as a continuing upward trend, which should be closely monitored [2][10][14] - The technology sector, particularly chips and robotics, is recommended for continued focus based on the TWO BETA model [2][10][14] - Given the uncertainties surrounding the upcoming National Day holiday, there is a specific emphasis on focusing on dividend-paying sectors as a defensive strategy [2][10][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company experienced a revenue decline of 18.5% year-on-year, with total revenue of 13.273 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 15.6% to 2.548 billion yuan, primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement [1]. - The sales of traditional pharmaceutical products faced significant pressure, with a 24.4% decline in revenue to 10.248 billion yuan, and a 32.3% drop in product sales when excluding licensing income [2]. - The company is expected to enter a new growth phase with multiple innovative drugs set to be launched between 2025 and 2027, including SYS6010, KN026, and others [2]. - Licensing income has become a strong revenue and profit source, with a notable 120 million USD upfront payment for SYH2086 expected to contribute to future earnings [2]. - The company has initiated overseas clinical trials for SYS6010, which has received multiple regulatory recognitions, including Fast Track Designation from the FDA [3]. - The HER2 bispecific antibody KN026 has had its new drug application accepted by the Chinese National Medical Products Administration, showing promising clinical trial results [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 13.273 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.548 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% and 15.6%, respectively [1]. Traditional Pharmaceutical Business - The traditional pharmaceutical business generated 10.248 billion yuan in revenue, down 24.4% year-on-year, with a 32.3% decline in product sales when excluding licensing income [2]. Innovative Drug Pipeline - The company plans to submit multiple innovative drugs for approval from 2025 to 2027, including SYS6010 and KN026, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [2][4]. Licensing Income - Licensing income has significantly increased, with the company securing 6 business development deals and expecting continued contributions from these agreements [2]. Clinical Trials and Regulatory Approvals - SYS6010 has received Fast Track Designation from the FDA and Breakthrough Therapy Designation from NMPA, indicating strong regulatory support for its clinical development [3]. - The KN026 application is based on positive results from a pivotal clinical trial, demonstrating improved efficacy and safety compared to existing treatments [4]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 28.398 billion yuan, 30.145 billion yuan, and 32.242 billion yuan, with net profits of 5.521 billion yuan, 5.940 billion yuan, and 6.457 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decrease in revenue of 2.52% year-on-year, totaling 24 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.5% to 488 million yuan [1]. - Significant revenue growth was observed in tire manufacturing and chemical services, while industrial gases and propylene experienced declines [1]. - The company is actively progressing on major projects, with several bases being constructed and operational [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue contribution from various segments is as follows: tire manufacturing (24.1%), energy chemicals (16.8%), fine chemicals (38.2%), daily chemicals (1.7%), chemical services (12.5%), and other businesses (6.7%) [1]. - Year-on-year revenue changes for these segments are: tire manufacturing (+6.8%), energy chemicals (+2.3%), fine chemicals (-10.6%), daily chemicals (-8.5%), chemical services (+11.4%), and others (-13.6%) [1]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margins for the first half of 2025 across different segments are: tire manufacturing (9.9%), energy chemicals (4.8%), fine chemicals (7.2%), daily chemicals (25.5%), and chemical services (4.3%) [2]. - Notably, the gross margin for tire manufacturing decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year, while other segments showed an increase of 6.3 percentage points [2]. Product Performance - Sales volume changes for major products in the first half of 2025 are as follows: methanol and acetic acid (+4.2%), industrial gases (-6.0%), propylene and downstream products (-13.2%), coatings and resins (-2.6%), and tires (+13.6%) [3]. - Average selling prices for these products showed a decline in methanol and acetic acid (-11.2%), industrial gases (-10.4%), and tires (-6.5%), while coatings and resins increased by 2.5% [3]. Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.22 billion yuan, 1.98 billion yuan, and 2.29 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The company expects a revenue growth rate of 10.11% in 2025, followed by 7.91% in 2026 and 2.44% in 2027 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The bond market has both "long - term concerns" and "immediate worries" this week. The short - selling inertia persists, but the buying of bonds by large banks and central bank operations have played a stabilizing role, and interest rates have recovered after consecutive increases. However, more positive and definite signals are needed to reverse the short - selling inertia [1][7]. - The calendar effect of the bond market is not obvious, and holidays do not change the main trend of the market. The main factors influencing bond market trends around the National Day are the fundamentals and fiscal policies [18][20]. - In the bond market adjustment, the decline of secondary perpetual bonds, policy - financial bonds, and ultra - long - term bonds favored by public funds is particularly obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to the re - evaluation risks of the interest rate tops of ultra - long - term bonds and 5Y secondary perpetual bonds [3][33]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market has "long - term concerns" and "immediate worries". The short - selling inertia remains, and the market is worried about the formal implementation of the fund fee solicitation draft and the introduction of unexpected fiscal stimulus policies, as well as the current cross - quarter liquidity support and fund liability - side redemption pressure. The expectation of large banks' entry and the central bank's restart of bond - buying can drive interest rates down, but the extent and sustainability are not firm [1][7]. - From Monday to Friday, the bond market showed different trends. Overall, compared with September 19, by September 26, the 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y ChinaBond Treasury bond yields decreased by 0.7BP, increased by 0.5BP, decreased by 0.2BP, and increased by 1.7BP respectively [7][9][11]. 2. The Bond Market Calendar Effect - The equity market usually has a strong calendar effect around the National Day. Before the holiday, investors are cautious and tend to leave the market, and after the holiday, the market usually rebounds. In the past 9 years since 2015, the Wind All - A Index fell in 6 years in the five trading days before the National Day, with a decline of 0.7 - 3.2 percentage points; it only rose in 2 years, with an increase of 1.4 - 2.5 percentage points. After the holiday, the equity market usually rebounds, except in the two years when it rose before the holiday [18]. - The bond market's liquidity usually fluctuates greatly before the National Day and shows a significant seasonal decline after the holiday. However, the calendar effect of Treasury bond interest rates is not obvious. Since 2019, interest rates around the National Day have mostly risen, mainly affected by fundamentals and fiscal policies, which can be divided into three situations [20]. 3. Which Bond Types Are Under Greater Pressure Under Fund Selling Pressure? - In the recent bond market adjustment, the decline of secondary perpetual bonds, policy - financial bonds, and ultra - long - term bonds favored by public funds is particularly obvious. Compared with last Friday, the interest rates of 3 - 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds generally increased by more than 10BP, while other credit varieties of the same term only increased by about 3 - 7BP. The term spread between 30Y and 10Y Treasury bonds continued to widen by 2BP to 34BP, and the over - decline of China Development Bank bonds compared with Treasury bonds spread from 10Y to 3 - 7Y [3][29]. - This "structural over - decline" reflects the redemption pressure on the liability side of bond funds under the double pressure of weak performance and possible adjustment of redemption fees. From the 23rd to the 25th, the net selling of funds continued to increase, reaching a peak of 68.3 billion yuan on the 25th. The selling was concentrated in 7 - 10Y policy - financial bonds, old Treasury bonds over 10Y, and 7 - 10Y other bonds, with average daily net selling of 8.4 billion yuan, 5.1 billion yuan, and 4.0 billion yuan respectively [3][31]. - Looking ahead, it is recommended to pay attention to the re - evaluation risks of the interest rate tops of ultra - long - term bonds and 5Y secondary perpetual bonds. Ultra - long - term bonds face the risk of supply - demand mismatch, and the buying power of 5Y secondary perpetual bonds is gradually weakening, and the adjustment risk may spread from long - term to short - term and from secondary perpetual bonds to general credit bonds [4][33][35].