Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the short-term fluctuations in lithium carbonate do not alter the long-term positive outlook for the lithium industry, with a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle expected by 2026 [4][10] - The report emphasizes the strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are poised for a value reassessment due to government policies and market dynamics [4] - The report notes that despite short-term volatility in copper and aluminum prices, the long-term trends remain favorable due to macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics [4][10] Summary by Sections Energy Metals & Minor Metals - Lithium is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle, with domestic power demand and energy storage needs driving growth. The supply side faces uncertainties, but the long-term outlook remains positive [4] - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are highlighted for their potential value reassessment, with government policies supporting demand recovery [4] - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to tight supply and increased demand from downstream sectors [4] Precious Metals - The report indicates that the fluctuations in interest rate expectations are the main drivers for gold price recovery, maintaining a positive outlook for gold investments [4] - The report suggests that gold prices are likely to remain volatile but are not expected to peak in the early stages of a rate cut cycle [4] Industrial Metals - The report notes that copper and aluminum prices have experienced short-term declines due to increased risk aversion, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to economic recovery and supply adjustments [4] - The report provides data showing that copper inventories have increased significantly, while aluminum inventories have shown a mixed trend [4][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - From November 24th to November 30th, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 329.69 billion yuan, including 224.12 billion yuan of new bonds (8.75 billion yuan of new general bonds and 215.37 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 105.57 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (66.39 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 39.19 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5] - From November 17th to November 23rd, the actual issuance of local government bonds was 184.66 billion yuan, including 102.67 billion yuan of new bonds (20.36 billion yuan of new general bonds and 82.31 billion yuan of new special bonds) and 81.99 billion yuan of refinancing bonds (46.66 billion yuan of refinancing general bonds and 35.33 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds) [1][5] Summary by Directory Local Government Bond Actual Issuance and Forecasted Issuance - The net supply of local government bonds from November 17th to November 23rd was 126.7 billion yuan, and the forecasted net supply from November 24th to November 30th is 304.2 billion yuan [19] - There are differences between the planned issuance and actual issuance of local government bonds in October and November [15][20] Local Government Bond Net Supply - As of November 23rd, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 89.92%, and the issuance progress of new special bonds was 96.69% [26] - The cumulative scale of the difference between refinancing bonds and local government bond maturities as of November 23rd is presented in the relevant chart [26] Special Bond Issuance Details - As of November 23rd, the total disclosed amount of the second batch of the fifth - round special refinancing bonds was 1998.887 billion yuan, and the total disclosed amount of the sixth - round special refinancing bonds was 217.56 billion yuan, with an additional 69.113 billion yuan disclosed next week. The top three regions in terms of the disclosed scale of the second batch of the fifth - round are Jiangsu (251.1 billion yuan), Hunan (128.8 billion yuan), and Henan (121.587 billion yuan) [5] - As of November 23rd, the total disclosed amount of special new special bonds in 2025 was 1296.705 billion yuan, and since 2023, it was 2484.569 billion yuan. The top three regions in terms of the disclosed scale are Jiangsu (244.035 billion yuan), Hubei (133.769 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (131.17 billion yuan). In 2025, the top three regions are Jiangsu (128.9 billion yuan), Guangdong (102.748 billion yuan), and Yunnan (72.997 billion yuan) [6] Local Government Bond Investment and Trading - The first - and second - level spreads of local government bonds are presented in the relevant charts, including the overall first - level spread and the second - level spread by region [37][40] - The investment direction of new special bonds and the monthly statistics of project investment directions are also provided [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From November 17 to 21, 2025, the central bank conducted net 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and had 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits mature. The government bond net payment scale decreased slightly in the week of November 17 - 23 compared to the previous week. The yield of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit (ICDs) remained stable overall, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was basically stable. The estimated median durations of medium - long - term and short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds decreased by 0.60 years and 0.20 years respectively on a weekly basis as of November 21, 2025 [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 167.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 112.2 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 55.4 billion yuan, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits matured. From November 24 to 28, 112.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature, 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will be operated on the 24th, and 90 billion yuan of medium - term lending facilities (MLF) will mature on the 25th [6]. - **Funding Rate Fluctuations**: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.43% and 1.49% respectively, up 0.9 and 1.9 basis points compared to November 10 - 14. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.50% and 1.52% respectively, up 0.8 and 1.5 basis points compared to November 10 - 14. The funding rate was high at the beginning of the week and then decreased, mainly due to factors such as high government bond net payment, tax payments, and frozen funds from new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. Towards the end of November, the impact of government bond payments on the funding situation is expected to be low, but the impact of cross - quarter funding needs attention [7]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From November 17 to 23, 2025, the government bond net payment scale was about 41.057 billion yuan, a decrease of about 1.42 billion yuan compared to November 10 - 16. The net financing of treasury bonds was about 29.533 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 11.524 billion yuan. From November 24 to 30, the government bond net payment scale is expected to be 23.38 billion yuan, with treasury bond net financing at about - 5.61 billion yuan and local government bond net financing at about 28.99 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield Stability**: As of November 21, 2025, the maturing yields of 1 - month and 3 - month ICDs were 1.4900% and 1.5735% respectively, down 0.5 and 0.2 basis points compared to November 14. The 1 - year ICD maturing yield remained unchanged at 1.6350% compared to November 14 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From November 17 to 23, 2025, the net financing of ICDs was about - 37.32 billion yuan, compared to about - 4.27 billion yuan in the week of November 10 - 16. Although the net financing was negative, the actual issuance scale was not low due to the high maturing scale. The estimated maturing repayment of ICDs from November 24 to 30 is 80.2 billion yuan, down from 90.7 billion yuan in the previous week, indicating a reduced pressure on roll - over [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From November 17 to 21, 2025, the estimated average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.15%, compared to 107.16% in the week of November 10 - 14. The estimated leverage ratios on November 21 and November 14 were about 107.31% and 107.15% respectively [9]. - **Duration of Bond Funds**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated median duration (MA5) of medium - long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 4.23 years, down 0.60 years on a weekly basis, at the 79.8% percentile since early 2022. The estimated median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds was 1.63 years, down 0.20 years on a weekly basis, at the 30.0% percentile since early 2022 [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The significant drop in coking coal futures, with a cumulative decline of 8.16%, is primarily attributed to increased supply expectations. However, ongoing safety regulations continue to create a tight supply situation, limiting the extent of price corrections. It is recommended to focus on high-risk, low-position opportunities [2][7] - The coal index (Yangtze) fell by 5.79%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.02 percentage points, ranking 21st out of 32 industries. The price of thermal coal remained stable at 834 RMB/ton, while the main coking coal price decreased by 80 RMB/ton to 1780 RMB/ton [6][21] Summary by Sections Coking Coal Market Analysis - The coking coal market is experiencing a weak and stable price trend. The main reasons for the price drop include increased supply expectations from Mongolia and reduced demand from steel mills due to declining profitability [7][23] - The supply situation remains tight due to low inventory levels at mines and ports, providing strong support for prices despite short-term downward pressure [6][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests embracing the coal sector's bottom reversal trend. Stock selection should follow three strategies: balanced attack and defense, elastic offense, and stable leaders [8] - Specific companies recommended include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [8][32] Market Performance - The coal sector has underperformed the broader market, with various indices showing declines. The coking coal index fell by 8.71%, and the coal refining index dropped by 13.50% [21][25] - The report highlights the need to monitor downstream demand and inventory levels closely, as these factors will influence future price movements [22][40]

- The report introduces two active quantitative strategies: "Dividend Selection Strategy" and "Industry High Winning Rate Strategy," launched by the Changjiang Quantitative Team since July 2023, aiming to provide alternative perspectives and investment choices for investors by tracking market hotspots and selecting industry stocks [7][14][15] - The "Dividend Series" includes two products: "Central State-Owned Enterprises High Dividend 30 Portfolio" and "Balanced Dividend 50 Portfolio," focusing on stable and growth-oriented dividend strategies. The "Industry Enhancement Series" targets the electronics sector, featuring "Electronics Balanced Allocation Enhancement Portfolio" and "Electronics Sector Preferred Enhancement Portfolio," which emphasizes mature sub-sector leading companies [15][16][21] - The "Central State-Owned Enterprises High Dividend 30 Portfolio" outperformed the CSI Dividend Total Return Index this week, achieving a weekly excess return of approximately 0.68%. The "Balanced Dividend 50 Portfolio" showed relatively high volatility recently but has achieved a significant excess return of about 6.14% since the beginning of 2025, ranking around the 40th percentile among all dividend fund products [16][21][23] - The "Electronics Balanced Allocation Enhancement Portfolio" and "Electronics Sector Preferred Enhancement Portfolio" failed to achieve positive excess returns this week. The former slightly underperformed the electronics total return index, while the latter struggled to keep pace [8][31][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [8] Core Insights - Guangdong has proposed a mechanism for sharing excess profits among electricity sales companies, which is expected to rationalize pricing behavior and reduce speculative pricing in the market [2][11] - The new policies aim to guide electricity sales companies to shift from a speculative pricing model to a service-oriented model, thereby stabilizing electricity prices and ensuring reasonable returns [11] - The report highlights that the profitability of independent electricity sales companies in Guangdong has increased, leading to a significant rise in the number of companies participating in the electricity market [11] Summary by Sections Electricity Sales Companies - Guangdong's new policy will share excess profits from electricity sales companies with retail users, compressing the arbitrage space and promoting rational pricing [2][11] - The shift in business model from arbitrage to providing value-added services is expected to stabilize market pricing and reduce irrational competition [11] Market Trends - The report notes that the average profit per kilowatt-hour for independent electricity sales companies in Guangdong reached 3.22 cents in the first half of 2025, an increase from 3.1 cents in 2024 [11] - The number of electricity sales companies in Guangdong rose from 257 in 2024 to 350 in 2025, a 36% increase, indicating strong market interest [11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality coal-fired power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment [11] - It also suggests investing in renewable energy companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power, which are expected to benefit from favorable policy changes [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11] Core Views - Recent stock price declines in the dry bulk shipping sector are attributed to a cooling sentiment in the Fujian market, following a significant rise influenced by the 301 tariff law [2][21] - Despite short-term price declines, the industry is expected to recover due to limited supply growth and three key demand catalysts: the commissioning of the West Simandou iron ore project, potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and increased demand from post-war reconstruction in Ukraine and hydropower projects in Yasha [2][21] - Current valuation support comes from tight shipyard capacity, high new ship prices, and rebounding second-hand ship prices, indicating a strong reset cost support for valuations [2][21] Summary by Sections Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping sector has experienced a rapid stock price correction after a 41.1% increase from October 16 to November 17, primarily driven by the 301 tariff law and subsequent market sentiment shifts [22] - The West Simandou iron ore project is expected to reshape the iron ore shipping landscape, with an anticipated annual production capacity of 120 million tons by 2028, significantly impacting shipping demand [24][26] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts historically correlate with increased shipping rates, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding inventory and stimulate demand for commodities [30][34] Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger transport volume has shown a 5% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume has risen by 17% [8] - The average domestic passenger load factor has improved by 2.0 percentage points, and international load factors have increased by 3.5 percentage points [52] - The report highlights a trend of rising passenger volumes despite slight fluctuations in ticket prices and oil prices [52][53] Logistics - The logistics sector has seen an 8.9% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume, with air freight prices turning positive as cross-border e-commerce demand rises [10] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend capabilities and those benefiting from improved export expectations [10][67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent merger announcement by China International Capital Corporation (CICC) to absorb Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through a share swap, indicating a trend towards consolidation among leading brokerages [2][4] - In the insurance sector, the third-quarter reports confirm a shift towards equity investments and improved cost structures, suggesting a higher certainty of ROE improvement and potential for accelerated valuation recovery [2][4] - The overall cost-effectiveness of investment in the sector is gradually increasing, with ongoing revaluation of the sector [4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - CICC's merger with Dongxing and Xinda Securities reflects a long-term trend of concentration among top firms [4] - The brokerage sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as commission rates stabilize [41] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry reported significant growth in value, premiums, and profits, with a cumulative premium income of CNY 52,146 billion in September 2025, marking an 8.76% year-on-year increase [23][24] - The report emphasizes the stability of dividends and profit growth in companies like Jiangsu Jinzu and China Ping An, which are recommended for investment [4] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 4.4% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 2.8%, indicating a mixed performance relative to the broader market [5][19] - The average daily trading volume in the market has decreased to CNY 18,650.36 billion, down 8.75% from the previous period [41] Financing Activities - In October 2025, equity financing increased to CNY 501.42 billion, a 20.4% rise, while bond financing decreased to CNY 6.56 trillion, a 19.2% drop [53] - The report notes a decline in the issuance of collective asset management products, with a new issuance of 4.183 billion units in October, down 37.3% [56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [12] Core Insights - The overall market has seen a decline, with a noticeable drop in risk appetite, yet bank stocks have slightly retreated while outperforming the broader market and the ChiNext index, showcasing their defensive attributes [2] - The report highlights a significant focus on the asset quality trends of retail loans, particularly mortgage loans, due to recent fluctuations in housing prices, raising concerns about the ability to cover loan principal [6][40] - The report anticipates that the decision-makers will prioritize financial system stability and risk thresholds, likely implementing policy adjustments to alleviate the pressure on mortgage loan asset quality [6][40] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Longjiang Bank Index fell by 0.9%, but outperformed the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices by 2.9% and 5.3% respectively, indicating a defensive characteristic of bank stocks [19] - State-owned banks have shown notable performance, with early mid-term dividend distributions in December encouraging increased allocations [19] Retail Loan Quality - There has been a rise in retail loan non-performing ratios and amounts among listed banks, reflecting pressures from declining housing prices and household income [6][41] - By June 2025, the non-performing balance of personal loans among sample listed banks increased by 88.3 billion yuan, with significant impacts from mortgage loans and rapidly growing personal business loans [6][41] - Individual banks such as China Communications Bank and China Merchants Bank reported rising retail non-performing ratios, while Ping An Bank showed a decline due to effective risk management and write-offs [7][42] Future Outlook - The report suggests that city commercial banks, like Ningbo Bank, are expected to achieve improvements in retail asset quality by actively adjusting their loan structures [8] - The overall retail risk in the banking sector is anticipated to remain under observation, with potential improvements in overdue rates and non-performing ratios expected in the future [7][41]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 2025 钢铁碳配额新政发布，影响几何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年开始，钢铁企业的配额将与该企业的碳排放强度挂钩。通过计算代表行业碳排放平均水 平的行业平衡值（BP），根据钢企碳排放强度（X）与 BP 的大小，将钢企分为三个档次。1） 碳排放强度小于行业平衡值 20%以上的企业（X≤80%BP）为优秀梯度，这些碳排放水平领先 行业的钢企将获得 1.03 倍的配额。2）碳排放强度与行业平衡值差距在 20%以内的企业为中等 梯度（80%BP<X<120%BP），将获得 1+15%[(BP-X)/BP]倍的配额。3）碳排放强度大于行业平 衡值 20%的企业（X≥120%BP）为落后梯度，排放水平落后行业的企业将获得 0.97 倍配额。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ ...