Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Buy" [7] Core Views - Hangzhou Bank's earnings have shown significant growth, with a 25Q1 revenue and net profit increase of 2.2% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, despite a decline in growth rates compared to 2024 [2][6] - The bank plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 24.5% for 2024, up by 2.0 percentage points from 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.50% [5][6] - The bank's loan and deposit balances grew by 14.3% and 21.1% year-on-year as of 25Q1, indicating a continuation of high growth [2] Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In 25Q1, Hangzhou Bank's revenue and net profit increased by 2.2% and 17.3% year-on-year, although the growth rates decreased by 7.4 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points compared to 2024 [2][6] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 11 percentage points to 530% [1][4] Dividend Policy - The proposed dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 24.5%, which is an increase of 2.0 percentage points from 2023, leading to a dividend yield of 4.50%, surpassing the average for city commercial banks [5][6] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of 25Q1, the bank's loans and deposits grew by 14.3% and 21.1% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting a sustained high growth trend [2] Interest Margin - The bank's interest margin decreased by 9 basis points to 1.35% in 24Q4, primarily due to downward pressure on asset yields [3] - It is anticipated that the decline in interest margin will narrow in 2025, supported by effective cost control on liabilities and a slowdown in the decline of asset yields [3] Asset Quality - While the bank's asset quality indicators showed improvement, there is a noted increase in non-performing loans, particularly in retail assets, with the non-performing loan generation rate rising to 0.80% in 24A, up 35 basis points from 23A [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 电力设备 供给发力，静待拐点 ——电新行业 2025 年一季度业绩前瞻 投资要点 ❑ 光伏：供需格局改善，基本面拐点成为下一轮预期修复重点 需求侧：新能源电力入市推动光伏装机进入市场化驱动新阶段。供给侧：行业自律驱动产 业链盈利修复，技术迭代创造提升空间。供给侧改革和新技术渗透齐头并进，看好 1）制 造能力突出，穿越周期的主产业链标的；2）BC、HJT 等新技术研发实力领先，有望加速 放量的主、辅材标的；3）业务横向拓展，打造第二增长曲线的辅材公司。 ❑ 储能：户储基本面逐步好转，工商储放量趋势明确 Q1 为储能出货传统淡季，但在今年 Q1 需求好转明显，在 Q2 旺季有望持续向上。户储方 面，西欧市场户储逆变器临近去库拐点、工商储景气度上行，非欧美户储需求保持较高增 速。大储方面，全球大储需求多点开花，灵活性资源需求、能源转型需求、电网建设水平 薄弱等成为需求爆发的重要驱动力，欧洲、非欧美大储进入爆发增长阶段，国内大储价格 也有望呈现企稳态势。 ❑ 风电：需求旺盛排产紧俏，产业链涨价盈利修复 需求侧：国内一季度以来风电装机节奏加快，下游需求旺盛，产业链排产较满，2025 年 ...

分析当前我国对美出口的现状可以发现，2024 年中国直接出口美国商品金额占 比不到 15%，其中机械设备、家电、家具、纺织行业对美出口依赖度较高；而航 空航天设备、农产品、机械设备、光学和医疗设备等行业板块对美进口依赖度较 高。在特朗普政府出台"对等关税"背景下，政策不确定性剧增，美国贸易政策 不确定性指数（TPU）达到 2010 年来的最高水平。 ❑ ESG 因素在贸易壁垒中发挥着重要作用 分析中国与主要贸易对象的 ESG 壁垒，可以发现，欧盟作为可持续发展的主要 推进地区，设置了多项 ESG 规范，并通过供应链传导"布鲁塞尔效应"，追求 经济发展与可持续竞争力的平衡。美国则主要处于遏制中国高端制造业出海的战 略目的，以 ESG 为幌子限制中国企业的贸易。东南亚位于全球产业链的上游， 受到欧盟等地区 ESG 规范的影响，推动本土化 ESG 规范的落地，同时以 ESG 为 重要手段推进产业升级。 证券研究报告 | 专题研究 | ESG 及绿色金融 "对等关税"背景下 ESG 与全球贸易浅析 ——ESG 因素与全球供应链复杂性相交织 核心观点 近期，特朗普政府对全球多国征收"对等关税"引发市场关注。我们认为当前 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 40.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.101 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The company expects stable profit growth in 2025, driven by improved pricing and operational efficiency [4][5] - The company has a diversified product range and a strong integrated supply chain, which enhances its resilience against market fluctuations [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% quarter-on-quarter and 5.71% year-on-year, with a net profit of 642 million yuan, down 8.32% quarter-on-quarter and 32.31% year-on-year [1][2] - The total sales volume for paper products in 2024 was 7.51 million tons, an increase of 12.76% year-on-year, while pulp sales remained flat at 1.46 million tons [2] Product Analysis - Revenue breakdown for 2024 includes cultural paper at 13.0 billion yuan (down 2.3%), coated paper at 4.13 billion yuan (up 17.9%), and corrugated boxboard at 10.93 billion yuan (up 11.5%) [2] - The average price for dissolving pulp in Q4 2024 was 7,742 yuan per ton, with expectations for stable profitability in the domestic market [3] Operational Strategy - The company is optimizing its production capacity, with a total capacity exceeding 12 million tons in 2024, and plans for new production lines in 2025 [5] - The relocation of the dissolving pulp production line is expected to enhance cost efficiency and profitability starting in Q2 2025 [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 43.178 billion yuan, 49.892 billion yuan, and 52.912 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.02%, 15.55%, and 6.05% [12] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 3.6 billion yuan, 4.14 billion yuan, and 4.559 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 16.08%, 15.01%, and 10.13% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 762 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, and a net profit of 254 million yuan, which is a significant year-on-year growth of 74.6%. The high profit growth is driven by breakthroughs in overseas business, increased market share of key domestic products, and optimized expense ratios [1][5] - The company is expected to maintain a high net profit margin in 2025, despite potential short-term pressure on domestic revenue due to centralized procurement impacts [1][4] Summary by Sections Growth Potential - Domestic revenue may face short-term pressure due to centralized procurement impacts on hemorrhagic products, which saw a revenue of 402 million yuan in 2024, down 5.5% year-on-year. However, ischemic/narrowing products are expected to continue growing, with revenue from atherosclerotic narrowing products reaching 268 million yuan, up 74.6% year-on-year [2] - The acute ischemic product segment is projected to maintain high growth, with revenue of 47 million yuan in 2024, up 82.0% year-on-year, driven by new product launches [2] International Expansion - The company achieved overseas revenue of 75 million yuan in 2024, a remarkable increase of 137.6% year-on-year, marking its first year of profitability in international markets. The company has commercialized eight products across 30 countries and regions [3] Profitability - The gross profit margin is expected to remain around 70%. In 2024, the gross profit margin was 73.0%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in revenue from hemorrhagic products and price reductions from centralized procurement [4] - The net profit margin reached 32.7% in 2024, a significant increase of 12.5 percentage points year-on-year, and is expected to maintain around 30% in 2025 due to ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvement strategies [4] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 828 million yuan, 1.002 billion yuan, and 1.197 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.72%, 20.95%, and 19.49% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 256 million yuan, 321 million yuan, and 384 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 0.67%, 25.48%, and 19.74% [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant growth driven by the integration of Lejoy, the implementation of a three-expansion strategy, and cost reduction measures, leading to a revenue increase of 7% and a net profit increase of 72% in 2024 [1][2] - The company is positioned as a leader in the maternal and infant retail sector, with a unique large-store model and steady franchise development, which is expected to enhance market share and long-term investment value [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected to be 108.58 billion, 141.68 billion, and 181.84 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.48 billion, 5.39 billion, and 8.55 billion, indicating substantial growth rates [2] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 93.37 billion and a net profit of 1.81 billion, with a significant increase in net profit margin to 2% [1][6] - The gross margin improved to 30% in 2024, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase, while the net profit margin increased by 0.8 percentage points [6] - The company aims to expand its franchise stores to over 500 by 2025, with a total of 1,046 stores as of the end of 2024 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company is entering a new development phase with optimized business structure, aiming to return to a growth trajectory [1] - The company is a leader in the B2B e-commerce sector targeting lower-tier markets, focusing on supply chain and SaaS+ services [2][3] - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow steadily from 2025 to 2027, with a forecasted revenue of 658 billion, 723 billion, and 795 billion respectively, and net profit of 3.5 billion, 4.6 billion, and 5.9 billion, reflecting growth rates of 10% and 31% respectively [2][3] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects a revenue of 600.6 billion, a decrease of 27% year-on-year, and a net profit of 270 million, down 40% year-on-year [3][8] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected at 3.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, while the net margin is expected to be 0.77%, up 0.1 percentage points [3][8] - The company’s total assets are estimated to be 28.5 billion in 2024, with total liabilities of 18.9 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 66.27% [8]

❑ 美国"基差交易"规模大，易衍生金融风险 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 11 日 美国流动性压力缓解 核心观点 4 月 7 日以来美国 10 年期国债收益率出现快速飙升可能因为特朗普政策扰动过 大，"基差交易"平仓所致。我们认为 2025 年美债利率可能在 4%-5%之间宽幅震 荡，特朗普政策阶段性回摆后美元美债流动性问题大规模发酵风险有限。 一是特朗普政策阶段性回摆，"对等关税"政策落地后未来不确定性进一步上行空 间有限。二是美联储有充足政策储备维持市场流动性。三是海外市场投资者购买 美债比例没有明显下行。未来应持续观测美债市场拍卖情况和美国《财政部国际 资本报告（TIC）》的海外持仓情况。 4 月 7 日以来美国 10 年期国债收益率出现快速飙升，由 4 月 4 日 4.01%升至 4 月 8 日 4.26%，且在 4 月 9 日一度触及 4.5%。美国国债收益率的快速飙升可能是"基 差交易"平仓导致。 基差（basis point）是美国国债现货和期货的价差，基差交易就是指在期货合约接 近到期时从期货和现货的价差中进行套利的交易。交易者会 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company is expected to see robust growth in its emerging business, with 13 new PPQ projects anticipated in 2025 and a more than 130% year-over-year increase in orders for its macromolecule business in 2024 [1][2] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, the company managed to achieve a 7.40% year-over-year growth in revenue when excluding the impact of large orders from the previous year [1] - The company has a strong order backlog of $10.52 billion, which is over 20% higher than the same period last year, laying a solid foundation for stable growth in 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.805 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.82% year-over-year, and a net profit of 949 million yuan, down 58.17% year-over-year [1][10] - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed signs of recovery with revenue of 1.664 billion yuan, up 15.41% year-over-year and 15.35% quarter-over-quarter [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 42.36%, a decline of 8.8 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to the high base effect from large orders in 2023 [2][10] Business Segments - The small molecule CDMO segment achieved revenue of 4.571 billion yuan in 2024, with an 8.85% year-over-year growth when excluding large orders [1] - The emerging business segment generated revenue of 1.226 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 2.25% year-over-year increase, with expectations for significant growth in 2025 [1] - The biopharmaceutical CDMO business saw a revenue increase of 13.91% year-over-year, with a strong order pipeline including 15 new ADC IND projects [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s EPS is projected to be 2.90 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 22 times based on the closing price on April 10, 2025 [8][10] - The expected revenue for 2025 is 6.629 billion yuan, representing a 14.21% increase from 2024 [10] - The company maintains strong growth potential in its small molecule CDMO and emerging business segments, which are expected to contribute significantly to future earnings [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Anta reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with the acquisition of German outdoor brand Wolfskin further enhancing its outdoor portfolio [2] - The main brand of Anta shows vitality with a high single-digit growth in Q1, driven by strong performance in children's products and online sales [2] - FILA brand also demonstrated robust growth, with high single-digit increases in revenue, particularly in children's and trendy products [3] - Other brands like Descente and KOLON experienced significant growth, with Descente's revenue growth nearing 60% [4] - The acquisition of Wolfskin, a professional outdoor brand, is expected to complement Anta's mid-range outdoor market presence and enhance its international footprint [5] - Revenue forecasts for Anta are projected to grow by 10% in 2025, 8% in 2026, and 7% in 2027, with net profit expected to reach 134 billion, 147 billion, and 161 billion RMB respectively [6] Summary by Sections Main Brand Performance - Anta's main brand revenue grew in high single digits in Q1, with children's products and online sales also showing strong growth [2] FILA Brand Performance - FILA's revenue growth was high single digits, with children's and trendy products leading the way, and online sales outpacing offline [3] Other Brands - Descente's revenue growth approached 60%, while KOLON's revenue nearly doubled, indicating strong performance across outdoor and women's sports segments [4] Acquisition of Wolfskin - The acquisition of Wolfskin for approximately 2.9 billion USD (about 21.2 billion RMB) is expected to enhance Anta's outdoor brand portfolio and market presence in Europe and China [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Anta are 782 billion RMB in 2025, 846 billion RMB in 2026, and 909 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 134 billion, 147 billion, and 161 billion RMB [6]