Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4]. Core Insights - The company has transformed its main business from spatial art design to cross-border e-commerce after acquiring Yibai Network in 2021, establishing a dual-wing strategy with a focus on general products and premium offerings [1][17]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 44 billion yuan in 2022 to 65 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 48% year-on-year increase [1][22]. - The cross-border e-commerce market is expected to continue expanding, driven by China's supply chain advantages and increasing demand for cost-effective products in overseas markets [1][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has shifted its focus to cross-border e-commerce, with its main business now divided into cross-border e-commerce and the Yimai platform, contributing 87% and 12% to revenue respectively in 2023 [1][19]. - The general products segment focuses on cost-effective items with slower iteration speeds, while the premium segment has seen a significant increase in SKU and average transaction value [2][19]. Industry Analysis - The cross-border e-commerce market has grown from 2.8 trillion yuan in 2018 to 6.6 trillion yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 25% [34]. - Short-term growth is supported by strong overseas demand and the expansion of e-commerce penetration, while long-term opportunities exist in emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America [34][46]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 89 billion yuan in 2024, 108 billion yuan in 2025, and 128 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 36%, 21%, and 19% [3][4]. - Net profit is projected to increase from 3.3 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.2 billion yuan in 2026, with a net profit margin expected to stabilize around 5% [3][26]. Strategic Developments - The company has implemented a clear strategy combining general products, premium offerings, and the Yimai platform, aiming for a transition towards brand and service provider roles [1][3]. - The management team has undergone changes, with the founder of Yibai Network taking over as chairman, indicating a renewed focus on cross-border e-commerce growth [30][32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is the top-ranked private real estate enterprise in sales, maintaining a strong presence in Hangzhou with independent operational flexibility [1] - Despite a year-on-year sales decline of 27.3% to 111.63 billion yuan in 2024, the company has entered the national TOP10 sales ranking for the first time, indicating resilience in a challenging market [1][2] - The company has a significant market share in Hangzhou, with a sales amount of 76.99 billion yuan, accounting for 69% of total sales and a market share of 16.8%, far exceeding the second-ranked competitor [2][18] - The company acquired 23 plots of land in 2024, with a total investment of 44.85 billion yuan, maintaining a land acquisition market share of 37% in Hangzhou [2][30] - The real estate market in Hangzhou is experiencing a recovery, supported by favorable policies and strong demand, positioning the company to benefit from this market resilience [3][11] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company's total sales for 2024 are projected at 111.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year, yet it ranks 9th in the industry, marking a significant achievement for a private enterprise [1][15] - In Hangzhou, the company leads with a sales amount of 76.99 billion yuan, representing a market share of 16.8%, significantly higher than its closest competitor [2][18] Land Acquisition - The company secured 23 land plots in 2024, with a total investment of 44.85 billion yuan, and an equity investment of 21.94 billion yuan, indicating a robust land acquisition strategy [2][30] - The land acquisition market share in Hangzhou stands at 37%, reinforcing the company's leading position in the region [2] Market Conditions - Hangzhou's real estate market is characterized by a favorable policy environment, with over 20 new policies introduced in 2024, including the removal of purchase restrictions, which has boosted market confidence [3][11] - The new housing market in Hangzhou saw a transaction area of 7.89 million square meters in 2024, a decline of 31% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing market experienced a significant increase in transaction volume, indicating strong demand [4][23] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.7 billion yuan in 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 0.85 yuan [12][14] - The financial outlook remains positive, with anticipated revenue growth of 6.06% in 2024, despite the current market challenges [14][12]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company is the second largest foreign trade port in China, with stable performance and a leading ROE in the industry. It has maintained steady profit growth, with a revenue CAGR of 11% and a net profit CAGR of 13% from 2014 to 2023 [1][31]. - The company benefits from a strong economic hinterland and advantageous shipping routes, with its hinterland economy and export volume accounting for over 32% and 26% of the national totals, respectively [2][41]. - The integration of ports is showing initial success, and the marketization of rates is expected to enhance profitability. The company is at the core of the ongoing integration in Shandong Province, which is anticipated to boost its profitability [3][60]. - In the current macroeconomic environment, the declining interest rates highlight the value of high-dividend assets. The company has consistently maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a dividend yield above 4.5% from 2021 to 2023 [4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Northeast Asia Hub Port, Strong Location and Profitability - The company operates five major port areas and provides various services including container handling, liquid bulk, and logistics. The liquid bulk segment contributes the most to profits, while the container segment is a key growth driver [23][25]. - The company has a low debt ratio and high ROE, with a 2023 ROE of 13%, leading the port sector [36]. Section 2: Volume: Economic Hinterland and Shipping Route Advantages - The company’s main hinterland includes Shandong, Jiangsu, and Hebei, providing a solid foundation for cargo volume growth. The port is strategically located in the center of Northeast Asia, enhancing its competitive edge [41][45]. Section 3: Price: Initial Success of Port Integration and Market Rate Trends - The report highlights the ongoing integration of ports in Shandong Province, which is expected to improve operational efficiency and profitability. The trend towards market-based pricing is also noted as a positive factor for future earnings [58][60]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to have net profits of 5.1 billion, 5.5 billion, and 5.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.79, 0.85, and 0.90 yuan [5].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index (930713.CSI) - **Model Construction Idea**: The index aims to reflect the overall performance of listed companies in the artificial intelligence (AI) theme by selecting 50 securities involved in providing foundational resources, technologies, and application support for AI[18][19] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Sample Space**: Same as the CSI All Share Index sample space[19] - **Selection Method**: 1. From the sample space, securities involved in areas such as big data, cloud computing, cloud storage, machine learning, computer vision, facial recognition, speech and semantic recognition, and intelligent chips are selected as candidates 2. Among these candidates, the top 50 securities are selected based on their average daily total market capitalization over the past year[19] - **Weighting Method**: Free-float market capitalization weighting with a tiered capping algorithm[19] - **Index Calculation**: $$ \text{Index Value} = \frac{\text{Adjusted Market Value of Samples}}{\text{Divisor}} \times 1000 $$ Where: - Adjusted Market Value = Σ (Stock Price × Adjusted Shares × Weight Factor)[19] - **Adjustment**: - Regular adjustments occur semi-annually in June and December - Temporary adjustments are made for events like delisting, mergers, or acquisitions[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The index has demonstrated high return elasticity and broad coverage of AI-related companies, making it a representative benchmark for the AI industry[18][19] --- Model Backtesting Results CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index - **Annualized Return**: 20.59%[26][27] - **Annualized Volatility**: 35.55%[26][27] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -44.99%[27] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.78[27]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index (930713.CSI) - **Model Construction Idea**: The index selects 50 stocks from the entire market that are involved in providing foundational resources, technologies, and application support for artificial intelligence, reflecting the overall performance of AI-themed listed companies[31][32] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Sample Space**: Same as the CSI All Share Index sample space - **Selection Method**: 1. Filter securities that meet investability criteria and are involved in AI-related fields such as big data, cloud computing, machine learning, and intelligent chips 2. Rank the securities by daily average total market capitalization over the past year and select the top 50 as index samples - **Weighting Method**: Free-float market capitalization weighting with a tiered adjustment algorithm - **Index Calculation**: $$ \text{Index Value} = \frac{\text{Adjusted Market Value of Samples}}{\text{Divisor}} \times 1000 $$ Where adjusted market value = ∑(stock price × adjusted shares × weight factor) - **Index Adjustment**: - Regular adjustments: Conducted semi-annually in June and December - Temporary adjustments: Made for events like delisting, mergers, or acquisitions[32] - **Model Evaluation**: The index is characterized by high return elasticity and broad coverage of AI-related industries, making it a representative benchmark for the AI sector[30][31] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index - **Annualized Return**: 20.59%[49] - **Annualized Volatility**: 35.55%[49] - **Maximum Drawdown**: -44.99%[49] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.78[49]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 专用设备 奥来德(688378) 报告日期：2025 年 02 月 18 日 八代蒸发源订单落地提利基，材料业务控本增收促弹性 ——奥来德业绩快报点评 投资要点 ❑ 事件：公司于 2 月 14 日发布业绩快报，2024 年公司预计实现营业收入 5.33 亿 元，同比增长 3%，归母净利润 9016.73 万元，同比下滑 26.25%，扣非归母净利 润 4522.74 万元，同比下滑 40.11%。此外，全资子公司上海升翕参与京东方 8.6 代 AMOLED 生产线项目投标，成为第一中标候选人，金额为 6-7.5 亿元。 ❑ 蒸发源"守 6 望 8"过渡期临近尾声，中标核心大客户订单迎来曙光 2024 年，国内 AMOLED 行业处于"6 代线向 8.6 代线升级转换"的阶段，6 代线 建设速度放缓，基本结束，8.6 代线逐步开启建设，对于公司而言，6 代蒸发源 仅剩下改造、维修需求，8.6 代蒸发源仍处于研发验证阶段，未形成实质订单， 因此公司蒸发源业务收入同比有所减少，但研发投入不降反升，使得整体业绩有 所承压。所幸，这一"阵痛期"已临近尾声，京东方作为国内头部 AMOLED ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the defense equipment sector, with a strong focus on precision-guided weapons and optical materials, which are expected to see increasing demand due to advancements in military technology and informationization [1][36]. - The global market for anti-tank missile systems is projected to grow from approximately 20.9 billion RMB in 2023 to 25.2 billion RMB by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.6% [1]. - The company plans to raise up to 1.02 billion RMB through a private placement to enhance its production capabilities in high-performance optical materials and precision-guided products, which is expected to significantly boost revenue and profit margins [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a long history dating back to 1953 and has undergone significant restructuring to focus on defense and optical materials [22][23]. - It operates primarily in two segments: defense equipment and optical materials, with defense products accounting for 74% of revenue in 2023 [26][32]. Defense Sector - The demand for precision-guided weapons is increasing, driven by modernization efforts in military capabilities and the need for advanced information systems [36][40]. - The company is a key player in the large weapon systems market, which has high entry barriers and is dominated by state-owned enterprises [44]. Optical Materials and Components - The optical materials segment is experiencing a shift towards domestic production, with the company holding a 15% share of the global market and a 30% share in China [2]. - The global market for military helmet display systems is expected to grow from 430 million USD in 2023 to 680 million USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.8% [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 16.6 billion RMB in 2024 to 30.1 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 11% [3]. - The company anticipates a return to profitability by 2026, with net profits expected to reach 1.1 billion RMB [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the defense equipment sector, with high product barriers and a strong position in the precision-guided weapon market, which is expected to see increasing demand due to rising penetration rates and military exercises [1][36]. - The optical materials and components segment is experiencing a shift towards China, with the company holding a significant market share in high-quality optical glass materials [2][3]. - The company plans to raise up to 1.02 billion RMB through a private placement to enhance its production capabilities, which is expected to accelerate revenue growth [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a long development history, restructured in 2010 to form a new layout focusing on defense and optical materials [22][23]. - It is backed by the state-owned China North Industries Group, providing a stable ownership structure [23][25]. - The business is divided into two main segments: defense equipment and optical materials and components [26][32]. Defense Sector - The defense sector is seeing rapid advancements in information technology, with increasing demand for precision-guided weapons and optical information equipment [36][40]. - The global market for anti-tank missile systems is projected to grow from 20.9 billion RMB in 2023 to 25.2 billion RMB by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.6% [1]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the large weapon systems field, with significant barriers to entry [44]. Optical Materials and Components - The optical materials segment is experiencing a broad range of applications, with a global market share of approximately 15% and a 30% share in China [2][3]. - The market for military helmet display systems is expected to grow from 430 million USD in 2023 to 680 million USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 6.8% [1][2]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 16.6 billion RMB in 2024 to 30.1 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 11% [3][4]. - The company anticipates a return to profitability by 2026, with net profits expected to reach 1.1 billion RMB [3][4]. Investment and Growth Potential - The company is set to benefit from the increasing demand for precision-guided products and the expansion of its optical materials production capacity [2][10]. - The expected revenue from the new projects post-expansion is estimated at 6.6 billion RMB for high-performance optical materials and 5.9 billion RMB for precision-guided products [2][4].

Group 1: Key Insights from the Private Enterprise Symposium - The recent private enterprise symposium, chaired by the President, signals strong support for technological innovation and the development of the private economy, particularly in Zhejiang[1] - At least 6 private enterprises from Zhejiang participated in the symposium, including major players like Alibaba and traditional firms focusing on new energy and materials[2] - The industries represented at the symposium have a higher technological content compared to the 2018 meeting, with a focus on computer science, artificial intelligence, and new energy[1] Group 2: Zhejiang Private Enterprise Index Overview - Existing indices related to Zhejiang's private enterprises include the Hangzhou Bay Area Index (931033.CSI), Hangzhou Regional Index (8883234.WI), and the CSI Zhejiang Private Enterprise Index (000840.CSI), with a total of 100, 231, and 559 constituent stocks respectively[4] - The indices predominantly feature large-cap stocks and are mainly distributed across the pharmaceutical, computer, and machinery sectors[4] - The constructed Zhejiang Private Enterprise Theme Index has shown significant excess returns compared to the Wind All A Index since 2025[6] Group 3: Zhejiang Private Enterprise Stock Pool - A stock pool of 27 leading companies benefiting from trends in AI, humanoid robots, and new energy has been established, focusing on sectors such as computer science, media, electronics, and automotive[5][42] - The Zhejiang Private Enterprise Theme Index reflects the overall performance of private enterprises in Zhejiang, with a notable distribution in commerce, computing, media, and food and beverage sectors[46] Group 4: Risks and Market Dynamics - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation and unexpected changes in the global geopolitical landscape, which could impact domestic financial markets[7][52] - The Hangzhou "Six Little Dragons," a group of six tech unicorns, have gained significant market attention, attributed to supportive government policies and a robust digital industry foundation[3][12]

证券研究报告 "全民智驾"各环节弹性与核心标的梳理 行业评级：看好 2025年2月17日 | 分析师 | 邱世梁 | 分析师 | 刘巍 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | liuwei03@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230520050001 | 证书编号 | S1230524040001 | | 分析师 | 郑景毅 | | | | 邮箱 | zhengjingyi@stocke.com.cn | 研究助理 | 张逸辰 | | 证书编号 | S1230523060001 | 邮箱 | zhangyichen@stocke.com.cn | 摘要 1、智驾平权：高阶智驾下沉至10-20w价格带，配置智驾能力成为车企胜负手。 注：渗透率预测来源于亿欧智库，后文同理。 2 添加标题 • 回溯2020-2023年中国新能源乘用车渗透率由6%快速提升至36%；截至2024年末中国高阶智驾渗透率约9%，未来到2027年 有望进入快速提升爆发期到35%的渗透率*。 • 从主机厂自身能力出发，硬件端成 ...