Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The overall bus export in November was 8,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, while the cumulative export for the first eleven months was 93,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 26%. The export of new energy buses in November was 1,100 units, down 6% year-on-year, but the cumulative export for the first eleven months reached 15,000 units, up 58% year-on-year, indicating a high level of bus export activity and rapid growth in new energy segments [1][11] - The market for fuel buses is expected to remain strong, particularly in regions like the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa, with a projected year-on-year growth of 21% in fuel bus exports before October 2025. The new energy bus market is also expanding, especially in Europe, where the penetration rate is expected to rise significantly [4][30] - The report highlights that the new energy bus export market is expected to grow, with projections indicating that by 2025, the market share of Chinese new energy bus exports could reach over 26%, and by 2027, it could rise to 33%, corresponding to an export scale of 6,000 units [5][40] Industry Data Update - The export of large and medium buses in October was 4,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 14%. The export of light buses in October was 5,000 units, up 25% year-on-year, with a cumulative export of 43,000 units for the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43% [1][20] - The domestic sales of large and medium buses in November reached 8,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with cumulative sales of 54,000 units for the first eleven months [1][22] Company Data Update - Yutong Bus sold 35,000 large and medium buses in the first eleven months, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The company expects to achieve sales of 40,000 units in 2024, a growth of 27% [2][27] - King Long Automobile reported sales of 28,000 large and medium buses in the first eleven months, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with an expected sales target of 29,000 units in 2024, reflecting a growth of 28% [2][29] - Zhongtong Bus sold 11,000 large and medium buses in the first eleven months, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with an expected sales target of 10,000 units in 2024, reflecting a growth of 58% [3][29] Industry Space - The report identifies significant market opportunities for fuel buses in underdeveloped countries, while the new energy bus market is expected to see substantial growth in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, with projections indicating a total demand of 17,000 units by 2024 and 37,000 units by 2027 [4][40] - In Europe, the market for large and medium buses is projected to reach 47,000 units in 2024, with a new energy penetration rate of 16%, expected to rise to 25% by 2027, corresponding to sales of 19,000 new energy buses [4][34] - The report anticipates that by 2027, the export volume of Chinese new energy buses could reach 17,000 units, with a compound annual growth rate of 39% from 2024 [40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 4.795 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%. Profit before tax reached 1.114 billion yuan, up 56.75%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.881 billion yuan, reflecting a 54.06% increase. Cumulatively, for Q1-Q3 2025, these metrics showed year-on-year growth rates of 19.53%, 73.16%, and 67.51% respectively. The increase in sales volume and prices were identified as the main drivers of profit growth. Additionally, net cash flow from operating activities surged by 99.20% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability and cash flow quality [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.795 billion yuan, a 23.17% increase year-on-year. The profit before tax was 1.114 billion yuan, marking a 56.75% increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.881 billion yuan, up 54.06%. For the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative revenue, profit before tax, and net profit showed year-on-year growth rates of 19.53%, 73.16%, and 67.51% respectively [1] Shareholder Confidence - Major shareholders, including the controlling shareholder China National Building Material and shareholders holding over 5%, announced plans to increase their stakes in the company by investing between 675 million yuan and 1.35 billion yuan over the next 12 months. This move reflects their confidence in the company's long-term value and growth prospects [2] Financial Structure - The company successfully issued its tenth phase of technology innovation bonds in December 2025, raising 400 million yuan at a low interest rate of 1.70%. This issuance not only provides low-cost operational funding but also demonstrates the company's strong reputation and financing capabilities in the capital market [3] Industry Position - The company maintains its position as a global leader in production capacity, achieving "world firsts" in three categories: thermosetting roving, thermoplastic reinforcement, and electronic fabrics. Its scale advantage solidifies its industry standing and ensures a healthy operational foundation. The company is actively enhancing management efficiency through benchmarking against world-class standards and implementing a comprehensive compliance framework across its value chain [4] Investment Outlook - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.9 billion yuan, with a conservative estimate of a 15% growth rate for the full year. The gross profit margin improved to 32.4% compared to 23.7% in 2024. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.6 billion yuan, 4 billion yuan, and 4.5 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.89, 1.01, and 1.12 yuan. The combination of shareholder confidence and low-cost financing enhances the company's financial safety margin and shareholder return expectations. Given its solid industry position and cost control capabilities, the company is expected to have a promising long-term growth trajectory [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The overseas AIDC construction remains robust, while domestic demand is expected to rebound in 2026. In the second half of 2025, there is a clear divergence in AIDC construction between domestic and international markets. North America continues to experience high levels of capital expenditure, with the four major cloud providers' capital spending reaching $257.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 65% year-on-year increase. In contrast, domestic cloud providers are experiencing a temporary slowdown in capital expenditure growth due to restrictions on high-end computing card imports, which has delayed some AIDC project timelines. However, this impact is seen as a deferral of demand rather than a disappearance of demand. As overseas supply of computing cards improves and domestic alternatives continue to develop, a "pent-up rebound" in domestic AIDC construction is anticipated in 2026, indicating potential for demand release [1]. Summary by Sections AIDC Equipment - The report highlights the ongoing high demand for AIDC equipment in North America, driven by rapid growth in AI computing needs and delayed power grid construction, leading to increased orders for gas turbines for self-generation or distributed power supply [2]. Gas Turbines - The global gas turbine market is characterized by a significant supply-demand imbalance, with an expected increase of over 85 GW in global gas turbine orders in 2025, while existing effective capacity is around 50 GW. The market is dominated by GE, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which together hold an 88% market share. The backlog of orders extends to 2028, creating opportunities for Chinese companies to enter the overseas market [2][3]. Diesel Generators - Diesel generators are essential backup power sources in AIDC construction, with a long-term market dominated by Cummins, MTU, and Caterpillar, which together hold about 85% of the market share in China. Current capacity bottlenecks faced by overseas manufacturers present a window of opportunity for domestic manufacturers like Weichai to replace foreign brands and expand internationally [4]. Cooling Equipment - The report notes that the rapid increase in AI chip power consumption is pushing the adoption of liquid cooling solutions, as traditional air cooling approaches reach their physical limits. This trend is expected to drive demand for related cooling equipment [5]. Emerging Technologies - Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) are being explored as a solution to power shortages in North America, offering high modularity, short delivery cycles, and high efficiency. The report suggests that SOFC costs are approaching those of gas turbines, indicating a potential growth area [7]. Data Center Busbars - The traditional "rack and cable" approach in high-power density scenarios is being replaced by intelligent busbar solutions, which offer higher reliability and easier maintenance, marking a significant upgrade direction for data center power distribution systems [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on several key areas: gas turbines, diesel generators, cooling equipment, and emerging technologies like SOFC and data center busbars, as these sectors are expected to benefit from structural opportunities driven by both domestic and international demand [8]. Key companies to watch include Yingliu, Ice Wheel Environment, Weichai Power, Haomai Technology, and Jerry [8].

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 26 日 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：周四上证指数上涨 0.47%，沪深 300 上涨 0.18%，科创 50 下跌 0.23%，中证 1000 上涨 0.97%，创业板指上 0.30%，恒生指数上涨 0.17%。 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+2.91%)、轻工制造（+1.59%)、机械设备（+1.51%)、汽车（+1.46%)、 非银金融（+1.08%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-1.12%)、有色金属（-0.77%)、商贸零售（-0.47%)、煤炭（-0.24%)、 通信（-0.18%)。 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 19245 亿元，南下资金净流出 11.75 亿港元。 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/王华君/周向昉】机械设备 年度行业策略报告：可控核聚变：招标提速，设备先行 ——20251224 【浙商大消费中观策略 钟烨晨】酒店餐饮 年度行业策略报告：2026 年餐饮行业风险排雷手册—— ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a new tiered performance compensation adjustment mechanism for public fund managers, linking their pay directly to fund performance over the past three years [8][10][11] - A profile of stock funds with higher outperformance rates is depicted, emphasizing the importance of appropriate performance benchmarks, lower stock concentration, larger fund sizes, and higher manager tenure stability [1][12] - The backtesting results show that the proportion of funds underperforming the benchmark is directly related to market conditions, with significant variations observed from 2022 to 2025 [12][24] Group 2 - Active funds have a higher underperformance rate compared to quantitative funds, indicating that quantitative strategies may provide better risk management through diversified holdings [18][19] - Non-market funds exhibit higher underperformance rates than market funds, particularly in fluctuating market conditions, suggesting that concentrated strategies may lead to missed opportunities [24][25] - Funds with more diversified holdings (over 200 stocks) show lower underperformance rates, reinforcing the idea that diversification can mitigate risks associated with individual stock volatility [35][36] Group 3 - Fund size is inversely correlated with underperformance rates, with larger funds generally exhibiting lower rates of underperformance compared to smaller funds [38][39] - Changing performance benchmarks can significantly reduce the rate of significant underperformance, highlighting the importance of selecting optimal benchmarks in the context of new regulations [24][38] - The report notes that funds with a high concentration in a single industry but benchmarked against broad indices tend to underperform, emphasizing the need for appropriate benchmark selection [32][34]

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that the restaurant industry is stabilizing, with a differentiation in the tea beverage sector [7][10] - The investment strategy for 2026 is based on the belief that the restaurant sector will see a recovery, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and a favorable comparison to 2019 levels [10] - Key assumptions include a moderate recovery in CPI and stable single-store operations, while the main concern is that CPI recovery may fall short of expectations [10][11] Group 2 - The macro risk identified is that CPI recovery may not meet expectations, which could exert downward pressure on customer spending in the restaurant sector [11][12] - The operational risk involves single-store performance not meeting expectations, which could impact brand confidence and overall annual performance [13][14] - The report highlights specific stocks such as Haidilao and Yum China, noting that they could face risks related to CPI recovery [17][25] Group 3 - The report identifies Haidilao as a leading Chinese restaurant chain, which may face pressure on customer spending if CPI does not recover as anticipated [17][18] - Yum China, which includes KFC and Pizza Hut, is also highlighted for similar risks related to CPI recovery affecting customer spending [25][26] - Other notable companies like Mixue and Gu Ming are mentioned, with risks tied to single-store performance impacting their expansion and overall performance [33][40]

Market Overview - On December 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.29%, the STAR 50 climbed by 0.9%, the CSI 1000 went up by 1.54%, the ChiNext Index gained 0.77%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17% [4] - The best-performing sectors on December 24 were defense and military industry (+2.88%), electronics (+2.12%), building materials (+1.72%), light industry manufacturing (+1.69%), and machinery equipment (+1.49%). The worst-performing sectors were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-0.85%), coal (-0.7%), food and beverage (-0.36%), banking (-0.3%), and media (+0.01%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on December 24 was 1,897.242 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.175 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank sector is expected to see a rebound in 2026, offering both high probability and favorable odds [5] - Market expectations for the non-bank sector are low due to the high base in 2025 [5] - Factors driving this outlook include a long-term "slow bull" market in equities and optimization of the liability side [5] Industry Rotation Strategy - The top five industry indices from the 2025 Annual Industry Scoring Table yielded a cumulative return of 44.8% as of December 23, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 22.2%, with positive excess returns in 11 out of 12 months [6][7] - In a bull market, focusing on industry fundamentals is deemed more important than trading comparisons, with a strategy of identifying and holding onto sectors with strong economic logic being favored over rotation trading [6][7] - Key sectors to watch in 2026 include cyclical and technology sectors, closely aligned with top-level policy themes such as technological self-reliance, domestic demand, and anti-involution [6][7] Automotive Parts Industry - The automotive lightweight trend presents significant opportunities for substituting steel with plastics, as modified plastics are lighter and stronger, making them ideal materials for automotive lightweighting [8] - The increase in the usage of modified plastics serves as a catalyst for this trend [8] - Risks include rising raw material costs and the potential for new material substitution [8]

Core Insights - The 2025 industry scoring report identified the top five sectors as Electric New Energy, Military Industry, Nonferrous Metals, Machinery, and Chemicals, which showed a strong correlation with actual annual performance [1][3][18] - A simulated equal-weighted portfolio of the top five sectors yielded a cumulative return of 44.8% by December 23, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 22.2%, with a monthly success rate exceeding 90% [1][3][12] - The report emphasizes that in a bullish market, focusing on industry fundamentals is more effective than trading strategies, advocating for a buy-and-hold approach based on economic cycles [1][5][21] 2025 Industry Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose over 16% in 2025, marking the largest increase since 2020, with Nonferrous Metals and Communication sectors leading the gains at 89.9% and 89% respectively [2][13] - The report highlights that the performance of Nonferrous Metals and Communication significantly outpaced the CSI 300's 17.4% increase [12][13] 2025 Annual Industry Scoring Conclusions and Performance Review - The annual scoring report, published in November 2024, ranked Electric New Energy, Military Industry, Nonferrous Metals, Machinery, and Chemicals as the top five sectors, correlating well with actual performance [3][18] - The top five sectors' simulated portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 44.8%, with 11 out of 12 months showing positive excess returns [3][20] 2025 Monthly Industry Scoring Conclusions and Performance Review - The monthly scoring report indicated a sample return of 34.7% since 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 14.8%, although this was lower than the annual scoring report's performance [4][12] - Key insights from the monthly performance include successful allocations in Communication and Nonferrous Metals, while frequent trading led to missed opportunities [4][5] Summary and Reflections - The analysis suggests that in a bullish market, prioritizing industry fundamentals over trading strategies is crucial, with a focus on tracking industry prosperity differences [5][21] - For 2026, sectors that should receive higher fundamental scores include those aligned with cyclical and technological trends, particularly in areas like Electronics, Communication, Military, Consumer Services, Agriculture, Trade, Pharmaceuticals, Electric New Energy, Chemicals, and Automotive [5][21]

Market Overview - On December 23, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.07%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.2%, the STAR 50 gained 0.36%, the CSI 1000 fell by 0.22%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.41%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.11% [4] - The best-performing sectors on December 23 were power equipment (+1.12%), building materials (+0.88%), electronics (+0.58%), non-ferrous metals (+0.42%), and banking (+0.37%). The worst-performing sectors were social services (-2.07%), beauty and personal care (-1.65%), retail (-1.6%), defense and military (-1.42%), and computers (-1.05%) [4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on December 23 was 1.9214 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 611 million Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Recommendations Company: Hu Shang A Yi (02589) - The company is positioned in the fast-growing ready-to-drink beverage sector, which is currently a scarce high-quality consumer niche with a market potential that remains vast due to low penetration rates and high-quality offerings [5] - The company is expected to achieve significant growth through channel expansion and overseas development, with a clear growth path supported by strong brand recognition and supply chain advantages [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4,002 million, 4,617 million, and 5,471 million yuan, with growth rates of 22%, 15%, and 19% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 505 million, 578 million, and 694 million yuan, with growth rates of 53%, 14%, and 20% respectively [6] Company: Perfect World (002624) - The company is anticipated to exceed market expectations in terms of revenue from its new game "Yihuan" and its long-term operational capabilities [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 6,970 million, 10,921 million, and 11,207 million yuan, with growth rates of 25.12%, 56.68%, and 2.62% respectively. Net profit is projected to be 820 million, 1,830 million, and 2,170 million yuan, with growth rates of 163.72%, 123.09%, and 18.55% respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The company is a well-established game developer known for heavy-duty game development, with its previous title "Honkai: Star Rail" achieving both reputation and revenue success. However, it faced challenges in recent years due to being at the bottom of the product cycle, organizational restructuring, and divesting some traditional assets, which impacted profit levels and stock prices. Most of these issues have now been resolved, and the upcoming title "Eternal Ring" is expected to boost revenue and profits, marking an opportune investment time [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue Expectations - The company anticipates that "Eternal Ring" will exceed market expectations in terms of revenue. The game is expected to generate over 5 billion yuan in its first 12 months, based on its quality and market feedback, compared to "Honkai: Star Rail," which generated 4 billion yuan over two years [2][5] Financial Health - The company has cleaned up its balance sheet, having divested underperforming assets, leading to a significant reduction in inventory to 1.182 billion yuan, the lowest since 2022, and goodwill at 221 million yuan, the lowest since its A-share listing [2][3] Organizational Efficiency - The company has improved its organizational structure, transitioning to a studio-based model that enhances development and operational efficiency, focusing on a product-centric approach [3] Catalysts and Indicators - Key indicators to watch include the launch date of "Eternal Ring" and its revenue post-launch. Catalysts include the December 2025 promotional video release, small-scale offline testing at the end of 2025, and the potential official launch in Q2 2026 [4] Unique Insights - The market generally expects "Eternal Ring" to perform similarly to or slightly better than "Honkai: Star Rail," but the report suggests it may exceed expectations in both revenue and profit margins, potentially reaching 50% due to its high quality and effective marketing strategies [5][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025 - 6.97 billion yuan, 2026 - 10.921 billion yuan, and 2027 - 11.207 billion yuan. Corresponding net profits are expected to be 820 million yuan, 1.83 billion yuan, and 2.17 billion yuan, with P/E ratios of 37, 17, and 14 respectively [11][39]