证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 通用设备 五洲新春(603667) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 25 日 国产轴承龙头，卡位人形机器人、EMB 系统等高增长赛道 ——五洲新春点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 事件：2025 年 5 月 19 日，总书记考察五洲新春参股公司洛轴公司。 5 月 19 日下午，总书记考察国内轴承领先企业洛轴公司。 2024 年 1 月，五洲新春参与洛轴公司的股权公开摘牌受让，拟直接受让比例为 8.5%。本 次战略投资有利于公司风电滚子产品市场的开拓及双方的技术互补。 ❑ 人形机器人零部件业务加速布局，打造新增长曲线 2 月 28 日，公司发布公告，拟投资 15 亿布局行星滚柱丝杠、微型滚珠丝杆等产能，持续 加码具身智能赛道；3 月 11 日，公司发布公告称与杭州新剑签订《战略合作框架协议》， 针对行星滚柱丝杠、微型滚珠丝杠的行星滚柱和螺母套部件、谐波减速器，智能汽车用线 控系统丝杠（REPS），机械电子（EMB）制动系统丝杠，智能主动悬架滚柱丝杠，后转 向梯形丝杠等核心零部件和组件产品展开全方位战略合作。 我们预计 2030 年中美制造业、家政业的人形机器人需求合计约 210 万台，空 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading domestic bearing manufacturer, strategically investing in high-growth sectors such as humanoid robots and EMB systems [2][3] - The company is accelerating its layout in humanoid robot components, with an expected demand of approximately 2.1 million units in the US and China by 2030, representing a market space of about 314.6 billion RMB [2] - The company is optimizing its bearing product structure to meet emerging demands in AI and aerospace, aiming for high-quality growth [3] - The EMB system is nearing mass production, with the company having developed key components for various applications, expected to start order production in the second half of 2025 [4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 3.59 billion, 4.12 billion, and 5.14 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 15%, and 25% [5] - The projected net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 150 million, 182 million, and 228 million RMB, with growth rates of 64%, 21%, and 25% respectively [5] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 98, 81, and 64 [5]

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 经济周周看：本周经济景气度总体平稳 ——宏观经济周度高频前瞻报告 核心观点 基于前期报告《经济周周看：整体向上，生产偏强，需求涨跌互现——宏观经济周度 高频前瞻报告》中构建的生产端景气周度跟踪框架，我们进一步编制 GDP 周度高频 景气指数，更好地综合把握经济景气强度及变化方向。 从我们构建的 GDP 周度高频景气指数历史回溯来看，GDP 周度高频景气指数在趋势、 节奏上与月度 GDP 的趋势节奏有较好的拟合度，例如 2024 年二季度的回落、三季度 筑底与四季度的大幅改善得到较好拟合，在拐点上有较好提示。未来随着高频数据质 量的进一步完善，有望更好地拟合周度 GDP，使其在弹性强度上更为准确。 GDP 周度高频景气指数本周（截至 5 月 24 日）为 5.6%，与上周修订值 5.6%基本持 平，或表征经济增长景气相对平稳。 从生产端来看，服务业、工业高频指标较上周总体平稳。 从需求端来看，各变量分化，消费走强，固投强弱互现，出口走强抢出口开始显现。 从价格端来看，本周物价边际承压，系统性回升有待需求侧反弹。 ❑ 风险提示 经济结构转型，传统指标对经济的拟合度下降 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 25 日 央行延续呵护，资金面迎来跨月 ——流动性跟踪 核心观点 资金面部分，未来一周，资金面迎来跨月，政府债净缴款规模上升，考虑到央行对资 金面的呵护态度，资金面预计均衡运行。 存单部分，未来一周，存单到期规模约 6500 亿，银行负债端压力可控，存单收益率预 计跟随资金面保持震荡走势。 节前一周关注：利率债震荡波动缺少方向的背景下，基金等非银机构票息策略关注度 可能进一步升温，此外考虑到机构对于久期目前有所忌惮，短端票息资产下沉依然会 是近期较为主流的策略。 ❑ 流动性：央行延续呵护，资金面迎来跨月 1、资金面部分：（1）5 月 20 日，存贷款利率不对称降息，将有效缓解银行净息 差压力，为未来的降息留好空间，但存款利率下调针对新增存款，政策效果仍需 要观测。5 月 23 日超额续作 MLF 以及央行全周在公开市场上净投放流动性，以 应对税期和政府债发行带来的资金需求，均体现了央行对资金面的呵护态度，熨 平波动，均衡稳健的思路不改。我们认为，在下一次降息到来之前，央行引导资 金面维持均衡的可能性较大，资金 ...

核心观点 本周市场震荡整理，主要宽基指数均录得负收益。5 月权益市场在抢出口、稳内需、稳 资本市场的预期下或能复刻 2020 年"先震荡、后突破"路径。展望未来 1-2 个月，上 证指数若能站稳 3400 点，或将带动市场情绪向上突破。考虑到目前转债市场潜在的风 险释放压力，哑铃配置策略或继续占优。 ❑ 可转债市场观察 过去一周（5 月 19 日至 5 月 23 日，下同）大部分转债指数回调，其中可转债可 选金融指数、AAA 指数、可转债中价指数、大盘转债指数领涨。估值方面，平衡 性、股性估值压缩。 证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 分析师：王明路 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 25 日 震荡行情下的应对策略 执业证书号：S1230523120006 wangminglu@stocke.com.cn 研究助理：章恒豪 zhanghenghao@stocke.com.cn 相关报告 1 《债市脉冲式行情下的应对策 略》 2025.05.24 2 《关注信用债骑乘价值》 2025.05.24 3 《"逢缺必补"特征的适用 性》 2025.05.22 http://www.st ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights three key updates that support a positive outlook for the company's long-term development: 1) The company will benefit from the upgrade of smart driving functions from L2 to L2+, leading to an acceleration in market share for J3/J5 [27][28]. 2) In the medium to long term, the company holds multiple pre-installed orders from various automakers for high-level smart driving, securing a position in the high-level smart driving market alongside Nvidia and Huawei [34][27]. 3) The company is expected to benefit from dual advantages of "domestic production" and "stricter smart driving regulations" amid various market disturbances [25][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 37.11 billion, 57.21 billion, and 83.45 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.71%, 54.15%, and 45.87% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -11.09 billion, -6.58 billion, and 6.01 billion CNY, indicating a potential return to profitability by 2027 [3][47]. 2. Market Discrepancies - There are two main points of divergence in market perception regarding the company: 1) The competitive strength of the company's products compared to suppliers like Nvidia and Huawei, with the J6P chip aligning its capabilities with high-performance scenarios [2][39]. 2) The impact of automakers developing their own smart driving solutions on the company's market position, which the report argues will not pose a significant threat due to high development costs and regulatory challenges [3][45]. 3. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report employs a Price-to-Sales (PS) valuation method, assigning a target market value of 111.3 billion CNY (121.2 billion HKD) for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 9.18 HKD per share, based on a 30x PS multiple [11][50]. 4. Product and Market Strategy - The company is positioned as an open ecosystem player, allowing greater flexibility for automakers through its BPU IP licensing model, which enhances collaboration opportunities with Tier 1 customers [40][39]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The report emphasizes the company's strategic partnerships with major automakers, including BYD, Ideal, and Volkswagen, which are expected to drive significant growth in chip shipments and market share in the L2+ segment [30][34]. 6. Regulatory Environment - The tightening of regulations in the smart driving sector is seen as beneficial for established suppliers with proven production capabilities, positioning the company favorably in the evolving market landscape [37][38].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 | 食品饮料 关注渠道和品类红利，继续推荐劲仔食品 ——食饮行业周报（2025 年 5 月第 3 期） 投资要点 食饮观点：当前食饮板块关注"食品板块品类红利"、"零食企业会员商超 等新渠道驱动"、"保健品新热点"等三方面的新消费投资机会，传统消费 优选业绩见底有望向上标的。我们维持此前强调的"在内需避风港钓鱼"观 点，并强调该阶段应该重点布局行业龙头个股；白酒板块 2025 年或为新旧 周期转换年，关注基本面业绩较好或公司改革有望见成效的龙头标的；大众 品短期关注零食公司或在山姆等会员店上架新品的投资机会，推荐劲仔食 品、盐津铺子，关注有友食品，持续推荐品类红利、零售变革大年和成本周 期带来的食饮投资机会。 白酒板块：白酒板块当前仍处低位，且一季报或为全年低点，当前位置持续 推荐，优选品牌势能较强、库存更早出清、目标增速合理的酒企。当前存在 关税等外部不确定性，以白酒为代表的内需配置价值彰显，政策及地产企稳 催化下或迎白酒结构牛市，推荐攻守兼备两条主线。重视"势能延续"、"低 基数修复"两条主线：①势能延续的确定性：高端酒推荐贵州茅台/五粮液， 次高端及区域酒推荐古井贡酒/山西汾 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][13]. Core Views - The report highlights three key updated logic points that support the long-term development of the company: 1) The company will benefit in the short term from the upgrade of intelligent driving functions from L2 to L2+, leading to an accelerated market share increase for J3/J5 [27][28]. 2) In the medium to long term, the company holds multiple pre-installed orders from various automakers for high-level intelligent driving, securing a position in the high-level intelligent driving market alongside Nvidia and Huawei [27][34]. 3) The company is expected to benefit from dual advantages of "domestic production" and "stricter intelligent driving regulations" amid various disturbances [25][37]. Summary by Sections Market Discrepancies - There are two main points of divergence in market perception regarding the company: 1) The competitive product strength of the company compared to suppliers like Nvidia and Huawei [38]. 2) The impact of automakers developing their own intelligent driving solutions on the company [38]. Competitive Product Strength - From a product matrix perspective, the mass production of J6P indicates that the company's chips can support all intelligent driving scenarios, aligning with the capabilities of Huawei and Nvidia [39]. - The company has established a fully self-developed product system that matches Nvidia's intelligent driving product ecosystem, offering more flexibility to users compared to Huawei's closed ecosystem [39][40]. Impact of Automakers' Self-Developed Solutions - The report argues that self-developed intelligent driving solutions by automakers will not threaten the company's market position or long-term development logic due to several factors, including increased regulatory scrutiny and the high costs associated with self-development [43][45]. Revenue Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 37.11 billion, CNY 57.21 billion, and CNY 83.45 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.71%, 54.15%, and 45.87% respectively [47][49]. - The company is expected to turn profitable by 2027, with a projected net profit of CNY 6.01 billion [47]. - A PS valuation method is used, assigning a target market value of CNY 111.3 billion (HKD 121.2 billion) and a target price of HKD 9.18 for 2025 [50][12].

Core Insights - The recent upward trend in Japanese government bond yields is attributed to a steepening yield curve and widening term spreads, with the 30Y yield reaching 3.06% as of May 22, marking a historical high [1][12] - The Japanese economy is emerging from a prolonged deflationary period, with CPI and core CPI recorded at 3.6% and 3.5% respectively in April 2025, exceeding the Bank of Japan's inflation target for over two years [2][16] - The proportion of Japanese government bonds held by the Bank of Japan has slightly decreased, with the central bank holding 557 trillion yen as of March 2025, down 4.6% from November 2023 [3][28] Group 1: Japanese Bond Market Dynamics - The yield curve for Japanese government bonds has steepened, with the 10s30s spread increasing to 167 basis points, driven by comments from Prime Minister Kishida and disappointing bond auction results [1][12][13] - The Bank of Japan's monetary policy is transitioning from negative to positive rates, with expectations of gradual interest rate hikes beginning in 2024 [2][21] - The Japanese government debt-to-GDP ratio has risen significantly, reaching 260% by 2025, raising concerns about long-term economic implications [4][25][26] Group 2: Impact on Asset Classes - The rising yields on Japanese bonds are expected to increase the financial burden on the Japanese government, potentially leading to higher interest payments [5][36] - The narrowing of the Japan-U.S. interest rate differential may lead to a depreciation of the dollar and an appreciation of non-U.S. currencies, impacting global capital flows [5][36] - The outlook for equities suggests that both Japanese and U.S. stocks may face short-term pressure, while the impact on Hong Kong and A-shares is expected to be more indirect [5][36]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The food and beverage sector is focusing on three new consumer investment opportunities: "category dividends in the food sector," "new channel drivers such as snack companies in membership supermarkets," and "new hotspots in health products." Traditional consumption is expected to see performance bottoming out and potentially rising [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the industry during this phase, particularly in the liquor sector, which may experience a transition year in 2025. Attention should be given to companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms [1][2] - The report continues to recommend leading stocks in the food and beverage sector, highlighting companies such as Jin Zai Food, Yili, and Salted Pudding, among others, as key investment opportunities [2][24] Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector is currently focusing on "category dividends," "new channel drivers," and "health product hotspots" as investment opportunities. The report maintains a positive outlook on leading companies in the sector [1][2][24] - Recommended stocks include Jin Zai Food, Yili, Salted Pudding, Dongpeng Beverage, Miaokelando, Wancheng Group, Guming, Mixue Group, Anjixin Food, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Lihai Food, Three Squirrels, Babi Food, and Xianle Health, with a focus on leading companies [2][24] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest point for the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets [2][16] - The report highlights two main lines of investment: "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery." High-end liquor recommendations include Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while mid-range and regional liquor recommendations include Guqingongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu [2][17] - The report notes that the liquor sector may enter a structural bull market driven by policy and real estate stabilization [16][17] Market Performance - From May 19 to May 23, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18%, while other liquor categories increased by 8.69% and frozen foods by 3.89%. The liquor sector saw a decline of 2.78% [3][29] - Specific liquor companies showed varied performance, with Jinzhongzi Jiu and Huangtai Jiu seeing slight increases, while Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu experienced significant declines [4][29] Company Updates - Jin Zai Food is highlighted as a key recommendation due to its clear growth path with major products and potential in new channels. The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025 [19][21] - Guizhou Moutai is focusing on five key areas for development in 2025, including strengthening its core business and building an ESG ecosystem [7][8] - Other companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe are also focusing on expanding their market presence and enhancing brand value [10][11]