Report Information - Report Name: Baocheng Futures' Morning Report on Beans and Oils (August 1, 2025) [1] - Author: Bi Hui - Department: Investment Consulting Department of Baocheng Futures - Contact Information: Phone 0411 - 84807266, Email bihui@bcqhgs.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The short - term prices of both soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to run with a weakening trend in a volatile manner, while the medium - term prices are expected to be in a volatile state. For soybean meal, the overall performance is relatively more resistant compared to the external market [6][8] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile [6] - **Core Logic**: The result of China - US negotiations was less than expected, leading to a pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports. The US soybean futures price fell below the 1000 - cent per bushel mark. The impetus of the domestic long - term procurement gap on market sentiment has weakened [6] Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The repeated nature of international oil prices cannot provide continuous support for the oil market. As market sentiment subsides, the trading logic returns to the weak fundamental situation. The optimistic expectation for biodiesel has weakened, and the rotation market of the oil sector has paused. After the China - US trade negotiations fell short of expectations, the funds for oil - meal arbitrage temporarily avoided [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock - bullish", and the overall view is "shock" due to the weakening of the manufacturing PMI in July [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "shock - bullish", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "shock". It is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "shock", and the intraday view is "shock - bullish". The core logic is the weakening of the 7 - month manufacturing PMI [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The 7 - month Politburo meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, leading to an increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts. After continuous corrections since July, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate, causing Treasury bond futures to bottom out and rebound. The 7 - month manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics is 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity and insufficient effective domestic demand. The weak performance of the manufacturing PMI increases the expectation of future monetary easing, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term views for both coking coal and coke 2509 are "oscillation", and the intraday views are "oscillation on the weak side", with a reference view of "range oscillation". For coking coal, the optimistic sentiment has been released, leading to an oscillatory correction; for coke, the increase in wait - and - see sentiment causes it to oscillate [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price and Cost**: The latest offer of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1160.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12.62%, and the cost of equivalent futures warehouse receipts is about 1136 yuan/ton [5]. - **Driving Logic**: The previous rise of coking coal futures was due to the "anti - involution rectification". However, the over - production situation in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia is limited, and Shanxi has effectively curbed over - production after the "Three Over - productions Rectification" in 2024. The actual impact of the industry policy needs verification. After the policy expectations were fulfilled, the coking coal futures continued to adjust downward. The fundamentals of coking coal have not changed much, and the recent release of positive sentiment has led to a phased price correction. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Coke - **Price**: The latest offer of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.58%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.90% [6]. - **Driving Logic**: As the optimistic sentiment brought by the anti - involution rectification in the coal industry at the end of July cooled down and the Politburo meeting was held, the strong expectations were fulfilled in the short term, leading to a high - level correction of coke futures [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Baocheng Futures Iron Ore Morning Report (August 1, 2025) - Report Author: Tu Weihua - Author's Position: Investment Consulting Department of Baocheng Futures - Author's Qualification: F3060359 (Industry Qualification), Z0011688 (Investment Consulting) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern is weakening. Steel mills' production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. Although steel mills' profitability is good and there is still demand resilience to support the ore price, the overall ore supply is expected to increase. Therefore, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level shock consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished products [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weak shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is also weak shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening and the ore price continues to adjust [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Steel mills' production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. The relatively positive factor is that steel mills' profitability is good, and there is still demand resilience to support the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports is currently low, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound according to the shipping schedule. Overseas miners are actively shipping at high ore prices, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. Overall, the ore supply will increase. With demand showing weakness and supply increasing, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakening. Coupled with poor market sentiment, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level shock consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished products [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - With the temporary cease - fire of the military conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has shrunk. The Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract has experienced a high - level correction. In the future, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend due to the divergence between bulls and bears [2][5]. - The improvement of the macro - sentiment has led to an increase in commodity valuations, and the risk appetite of the commodity market has significantly rebounded [3]. 3) Summary According to Related Content Macro Environment - Overseas markets are optimistic. The US Congress has passed relevant bills, which may lead to a loose fiscal policy and help the US debt achieve a soft landing. The US has reached tariff agreements with multiple economies, and the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US have raised high expectations in the global financial market. This has improved the macro - factors and increased the risk appetite in the commodity market [3]. Rubber Production in Thailand and Cambodia - Thailand is the world's largest natural rubber producer, accounting for about one - third of the global total output. In 2024, its production was 466.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.59%. In 2025 from January to May, production was 143.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.73%. In 2024, exports were 392.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.62%. In 2025 from January to May, exports were 177.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45%. Cambodia is an emerging rubber - producing country. In 2024, its production was 40.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.93%, and exports were 39.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.65%. Thailand's annual production and exports are 11.45 times and 9.83 times that of Cambodia respectively [4]. Impact of the Conflict on Rubber Production - The conflict area between Thailand and Cambodia is mainly in Thailand's Surin Province and Cambodia's Oddar Meanchey Province. In Thailand, the rubber production in Surin Province is limited. In Cambodia, the main rubber - producing areas are not in Oddar Meanchey Province. So the conflict has a limited impact on rubber production, and the geopolitical premium in the rubber market has decreased [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 利好阶段性释放，煤焦期货继续回调 核心观点 焦炭：7 月 31 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1601 元/吨，日内录得 4.93%的跌 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.87 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-653 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1420 元/吨，周环比上涨 7.58%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1420 元/吨， 周环比上涨 2.90%。期货市场方面，随着 7 月底煤炭行业反内卷整治带来 的乐观情绪降温，以及政 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 31, 2025, all stock indices fluctuated and declined. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 196.18 billion yuan, an increase of 9.09 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity and the continued existence of insufficient effective domestic demand [3]. - Considering that the Politburo meeting in July mainly emphasized the implementation of existing policies, incremental policies may need to wait for the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October. In the short term, the driving force of policy -利好 expectations will gradually weaken [3]. - Since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, and some profit - taking funds have a need to take profits. Therefore, the stock indices have a short - term need for technical consolidation [3]. - Given that the trading volume of the stock market is still at a high level, the downward space of the stock indices is expected to be limited. It is expected that the stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options has rebounded. Considering that the stock indices are upward in the medium and long term, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild long - position view [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On July 31, 2025, 50ETF fell 1.50% to 2.899; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.82% to 4.155; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.88% to 4.284; the CSI 300 Index fell 1.82% to 4075.59; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.85% to 6661.19; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.44% to 6.297; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.41% to 2.517; the ChiNext ETF fell 1.88% to 2.301; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 2.00% to 2.884; the SSE 50 Index fell 1.54% to 2775.99; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.99% to 1.10; and E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 1.01% to 1.07 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options changed compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 92.57 (the previous trading day was 85.10), and the position PCR was 89.67 (the previous trading day was 100.85) [6]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in August 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options are provided. For example, the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in August 2025 was 14.87%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 8.07% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [9][11][13]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [18][19]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 300ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [21][22]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 300 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [33][34]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include charts of CSI 1000 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [46][47]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [57][58]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Include charts of SZSE 500ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [70][71]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Include charts of ChiNext ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [82][83]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Include charts of Shenzhen 100ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [95][96]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Include charts of SSE 50 index trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [108][109]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [122][123]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Include charts of E Fund STAR 50ETF trends, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and various - term at - the - money implied volatility [125][126].

Group 1: Report Core View - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. Due to the Politburo meeting in July mentioning the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, the future monetary environment tends to be loose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. After continuous corrections since July, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield has rebounded to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate, so Treasury bond futures bottomed out and rebounded. The manufacturing PMI released in July was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity and insufficient effective domestic demand. The weak performance of the manufacturing PMI increases the expectation of future monetary easing, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. In general, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] Group 2: Industry News and Related Charts - On July 31, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 283.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate, quantity - tender method for a term of 7 days with a winning bid rate of 1.4% [5] - On July 31, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in July, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined [5] - The report also includes charts such as the trends of TL2509, T2509, TF2509, TS2509, the Treasury bond yield - to - maturity curve, and the central bank's open - market operations [6][8][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The copper price had a narrow - range consolidation during the night session and oscillated downward during the day, breaking below the 60 - day moving average. The decline was mainly due to the weakening overall sentiment in the commodity market. The impact of Trump's 50% tariff on specific imported copper products was limited as it didn't cover refined copper. Short - term attention should be paid to the overall atmosphere of the commodity market and the long - short game at the 78,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price had a narrow - range consolidation during the night session and oscillated downward during the day, breaking below the 30 - day moving average. Affected by the weakening commodity market sentiment and a relatively loose supply - demand pattern, the aluminum price is expected to be weak in the short term [5]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price had a narrow - range consolidation during the night session and oscillated downward during the day, breaking below the 30 - day moving average. Due to the weakening commodity market sentiment, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to its support at the 60 - day moving average [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The Fed's July FOMC meeting kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fifth consecutive hold. Trump signed an announcement to impose a 50% tariff on specific imported copper products, covering semi - finished and copper - intensive derivative products, while copper ores, concentrates, and copper scrap are not affected [8]. - **Aluminum**: As of July 31, the domestic port alumina inventory was 48,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week [9]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,900 - 122,600 yuan/ton, with an average of 121,250 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan No.1 nickel was 2,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE warrant inventory, and copper monthly spread [11][13][20]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, alumina price trend, alumina inventory, and aluminum monthly spread [24][26][34]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, SHFE nickel inventory, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][45].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 31 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱，钢矿高位回落 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价大幅下跌，录得 4.19%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 政策预期兑现，前期乐观预期开始修正，且供需双弱局面螺纹基本面矛 盾在累积，钢价有所承压，偏弱情绪主导下预计螺纹短期延续震荡走弱 态势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价弱势下行，录得 3.56%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，乐观情绪消退，钢市运行重回产业端，供需双增局面下热卷基本面 在走弱，库存持续增加，叠加原料下行拖累，利空因素发酵，预计热卷 价格承压弱势下行，关注海外风险情况。 铁矿石：主力期价延续弱势，录得 2.38%日跌幅，量仓收缩。现阶 段，矿石需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，但矿石供应将回升，需求表现 弱稳，供增需稳局面下矿市基本面预期走弱，叠加市场情绪不佳，矿价 延续弱势震荡态势，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571- ...