Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The overall view of the rubber and synthetic rubber markets is that they are likely to operate weakly in the short - term and remain volatile in the medium - term. Specifically, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract and the synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract are expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly operating [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: As macro factors are gradually digested, the trading logic of the rubber market turns to the supply - demand fundamentals. With the full - scale tapping in domestic and foreign natural rubber producing areas, raw material output is steadily increasing and new rubber supply is rising. Meanwhile, the operating rate of the downstream tire industry is gradually returning to normal, and procurement demand is expected to increase. On Wednesday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures fell 1.95% to 13,795 yuan/ton, continuing the downward trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: weakly volatile. The reference view is weakly operating [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: As macro factors are gradually digested, the trading logic of the synthetic rubber market turns to the supply - demand fundamentals. The approaching US debt crisis in June may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the production increase, and crude oil demand is expected to be weak. Recently, the supply of synthetic rubber is expected to increase, and the utilization rate of device capacity is rising. Although the 2507 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly rose 0.18% to 11,350 yuan/ton on Wednesday night, it is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend on Thursday [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation weakly" respectively [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2509, short - term view is oscillation, medium - term view is oscillation, and intraday view is oscillation weakly, with a reference view of weak operation due to a weak supply - demand structure [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - As macro - positive factors are digested, methanol futures prices are dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Domestic coal - to - methanol plants are restarting, increasing supply pressure to a record high. Downstream demand improvement is limited, and the profit of methanol - to - olefin futures has declined, which is unfavorable for port inventory reduction. With an expected increase in external imports, the pressure of social inventory accumulation will rise. On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed an oscillation - weakly trend, closing 1.40% lower at 2178 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillation - weakly trend on Thursday [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 偏空氛围主导，焦煤继续走低 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本端拖累，焦炭弱势运行 | 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：5 月 28 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约再创新低，夜盘报收于 765.0 元/吨，录得 3.23%的跌 幅。现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 950.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 20 元/吨，折合期 货仓单成本约 922 元/吨。供需方面，截至 5 月 23 日当周，供应端全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日 均产量 78.6 万吨，环比下降 3.1 万吨，较去年同期偏高 2.9 万吨， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view for the agricultural commodity futures sector, including soymeal, palm oil, and soybean oil, is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: As U.S. soybean sowing accelerates, U.S. soybean futures prices decline. Trade concerns ease, and weather factors may still drive up prices. In the domestic market, the supply improvement expectation is being realized, and the negative basis pattern of soymeal is hard to change in the short - term. After the linkage between domestic and foreign markets is restored, soymeal futures prices rebound. In the short - term, it is affected by the external market and runs weakly with oscillations [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The Southeast Asian market is in a game between increasing production and the ability to maintain strong exports. After a period of inactivity, short - term funds frequently enter and exit the market, causing obvious fluctuations in palm oil futures prices. It tries to rebound from the low level but fails to break through the oscillation range. In the short - term, its trend is affected by other oil varieties and runs weakly with oscillations [7]. Soybean Oil (Not elaborated in detail like the above two, but mentioned in overview) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6]. - **Core Logic Factors**: U.S. tariff policy, U.S. soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The reference view for thermal coal is to oscillate. The domestic thermal coal price has temporarily stopped falling and stabilized this week. As of May 22, the quotation of 5500K at Qinhuangdao Port was 613 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The supply and inventory pressure of thermal coal still exists, but the production and import volume in April decreased month-on-month, indicating that the supply-side pressure has not further increased. The rapid increase in port inventory in May has put great pressure on coal prices, and the high inventory situation has led to the continuous fermentation of the expectation of a lackluster peak season this summer, dragging down prices. As of May 22, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 32.105 million tons, significantly 6.458 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the inventory once reached a historical high of 33 million tons within the month. There are three positive drivers in the current coal market: policy support in May, a decline in the cost-effectiveness of imported coal leading to a decrease in imports, and the upcoming peak season for thermal coal. However, the thermal coal market still maintains a pattern of loose supply, with port inventory at a high level in the same period in recent years and a strong expectation of a lackluster peak season. Under the psychology of "buying on the rise and not on the fall", the price of 5500K coal at ports is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [5]. Group 2: Time Cycle and Price Calculation Notes - The short - term is within one week, and the medium - term is from two weeks to one month [1]. - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for varieties without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price, and the ending price is the current day's daytime closing price to calculate the increase or decrease [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly oscillating, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongly oscillating, and an increase of more than 1% is considered a rise. The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating are only for intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macroeconomic Data**: In April 2025, China's GDP growth remained stable, while manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed a decline. Social financing scale decreased, and inflation remained low. Industrial enterprise profits increased, led by new - energy industries [1]. - **Commodity Investment**: The global economic situation and policies have an impact on various commodities. For example, the US consumer confidence index improved in May, the copper market had a supply surplus in March, and the active drilling platform number in the US decreased [2][3][4]. - **Financial News**: Policies such as China's fiscal and monetary policies, and international trade policies have affected the financial market. Credit bonds have become popular, and the bond market has shown certain trends [10][14]. - **Stock Market**: The A - share market was volatile, and the Hong Kong stock market rose. Some companies' performance and capital operations attracted attention [29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1]. - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, down from 50.5% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, down from 50.8% [1]. - Social financing scale in April was 11,591 billion yuan, a significant decrease from 58,961 billion yuan in the previous month [1]. - CPI in April was - 0.1% year - on - year, the same as the previous month; PPI was - 2.7% year - on - year, down from - 2.5% [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - The ASEAN - China - GCC Summit aimed to strengthen cooperation in multiple fields and promote free trade [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange revised some business regulations, effective from June 27, 2025 [2]. - In May, the US consumer confidence index rose from 85.7 to 98, exceeding expectations [3]. - In March, the US FHFA housing price index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the S&P/CS20 - city housing price index increased by 4.1% year - on - year [3]. Metal - In March 2025, the world refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons [4]. - As of May 27, the gold持仓 of SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged at 922.46 tons [4]. - Guinea Alumina Corporation hoped to resume negotiations to lift bauxite mining restrictions [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - From January to April 2025, Thailand's coal imports decreased by 8.4% year - on - year, with a significant decline in brown coal imports [6]. Energy and Chemicals - The number of active on - shore drilling platforms in the US decreased to 553, 26 less than the previous year [7]. Agricultural Products - Brazil's soybean exports in May were expected to be 14.03 million tons, down from the previous forecast [8]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in March 2025 were 896,968 tons [9]. 3. Financial News Open Market - On May 27, the central bank conducted 448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 91 billion yuan [10]. Key News - The ASEAN - China - GCC Summit promoted cooperation and free trade [11][12]. - China refuted the "China debt responsibility theory" [12]. - The Ministry of Commerce supported the construction of national economic development zones [12]. - In April, China's industrial enterprise profits increased by 3% year - on - year, with new - energy industries leading the growth [13]. - Shanghai tax authorities launched a pilot project for real - estate trust registration [13]. - Many bank wealth - management subsidiaries were applying to join the China Insurance Asset Management Association [13]. - The Ministry of Finance planned to re - issue 105 billion yuan of special treasury bonds [14]. - After the May reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, credit bonds became popular [14]. - A private venture capital institution obtained approval to issue science - innovation bonds [14]. - As of April 2025, the scale of public funds exceeded 33 trillion yuan [15]. - Jinan successfully issued replacement bonds in the first quarter [15]. - Guangzhou encouraged state - owned enterprises to increase investment and asset revitalization [16]. - The US was promoting trade negotiations with multiple countries [17]. - Japan might adjust its bond issuance plan [17]. - The UK was reducing its reliance on long - term government bonds [17]. - Some bond events, such as payment uncertainties and debt restructurings, occurred [18]. - Credit ratings of some entities were confirmed [18]. Bond Market Summary - The bond market weakened, with treasury bond futures falling and yields rising [19]. - Some exchange - traded bonds rose or fell, and convertible bond indices declined [20]. - Money market interest rates mostly decreased [21]. - The yields of some financial bonds were determined through bidding [22]. - European and US bond yields generally declined [22][23]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated, and the US dollar index rose [24]. Research Report Highlights - Some institutions recommended investment strategies, such as a dumbbell - shaped strategy and focusing on certain credit bonds [25]. - Different types of real - estate enterprises were analyzed, and the credit bond supply - demand relationship was expected to remain positive [25][26]. - The government's support for state - owned banks was expected to improve their asset quality [26]. - Industrial enterprise profits were expected to continue to recover, but risks needed attention [27]. Today's Reminders - On May 28, 223 bonds were listed, 104 were issued, 131 were paid, and 165 had principal and interest payments [28]. 4. Stock Market News - The A - share market was volatile, with new - consumption concept stocks rising and robot and computing - power stocks falling [29]. - The Hong Kong stock market rose, with some consumer stocks hitting new highs [29]. - China Chengtong planned to complete key tasks and showed confidence in the capital market [30]. - A large number of A - share listed companies disclosed repurchase and share - increase loan matters [30]. - Kuaishou's Q1 revenue and profit increased, and its user base reached a new high [30]. - MIXUE's stock price reached a new high, surpassing some liquor companies [31]. - Zhihu achieved profitability for two consecutive quarters [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the basis, price spreads, and other data of various commodities including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates from May 21 to May 27, 2025, offering data support for investors to analyze market trends and arbitrage opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis of power coal from May 21 to May 27, 2025, was - 190.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 27, 2025, was - 7.49 yuan/ton, showing a change compared to previous days. The basis of fuel oil was not available on May 27, and the crude oil/asphalt ratio was 0.1302 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 27 was - 95 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were presented for chemicals like natural rubber, methanol, and PTA [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., also showed variations on different dates [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of rebar on May 27 was 140.0 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads were presented for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal [16]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal, as well as the spread of rebar - hot - rolled coil, were provided [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of copper on May 27 was 370 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss were provided for copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the LME spread of copper on May 27 was 40.08 [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on May 27 was - 64 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads were presented for various agricultural products [40]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Ratios such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., were provided [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 27 was 30.20 [48]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads (next - current, current - quarter - current, etc.) were presented for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [48].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着宏观 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly. In the short - term and mid - term, it will be in a volatile state, and the intraday view is volatile and weak. With the digestion of macro - positive factors, the methanol futures price is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the mid - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile and weak, and the reference view is weak operation. The core logic is the weak supply - demand structure which restricts the methanol rebound [1]. 3.2 Price and Drive Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is volatile and weak, and the mid - term view is volatile. The reference view is weak operation. The core logic is that after the digestion of macro - positive factors, the futures price is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Domestic coal - to - methanol plants are restarting, increasing supply pressure. Downstream demand improvement is limited, and the profit of methanol - to - olefin futures has declined, which is not conducive to inventory reduction. With the expected increase in imports, the future social inventory accumulation pressure will increase. Although the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday night with a slight increase of 0.45% to 2209 yuan/ton, it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.3 Remarks - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% decline is volatile and weak, 0 - 1% increase is volatile and strong, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise [3] - The volatile and strong/weak view is only for the intraday view, and no distinction is made for the short - term and mid - term [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures is oscillating strongly, while the medium - term trend is oscillating. The market sentiment of soybean meal is boosted by the alleviation of trade concerns and the fermentation of weather topics, and the domestic supply improvement expectation is continuous. The palm oil market is in a game between production growth and export sustainability, and its fundamentals are slightly better than soybean oil [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the alleviation of trade concerns and the fermentation of weather topics, the US soybean futures price continues to rebound, supporting domestic soybean futures prices. The domestic supply improvement expectation is continuous, and the oil refinery inventory accumulation expectation is increasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of the oil refinery's picking - up rhythm and downstream replenishment rhythm on prices. The short - term soybean meal futures price enters a stage of rebound, and the internal - external linkage is enhanced [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the supply of Southeast Asian palm oil increases, the competitiveness of palm oil exports affects the inventory pressure of Southeast Asian palm oil. Due to Indonesia's increase in palm oil export taxes and Malaysia's reduction of the export tax on crude palm oil in June, Indonesian palm oil has lost its price competitiveness compared to Malaysia. The market is in a game between production growth and the sustainability of strong exports. Currently, the fundamentals of palm oil are slightly better than soybean oil. Affected by short - term funds, the palm oil futures price fluctuates more, but has not broken through the oscillation range [7]. Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].