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宝城期货品种套利数据日报-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 02:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report presents the basis, price spreads, and other data of various commodities including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on different dates from May 21 to May 27, 2025, offering data support for investors to analyze market trends and arbitrage opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis of power coal from May 21 to May 27, 2025, was - 190.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 27, 2025, was - 7.49 yuan/ton, showing a change compared to previous days. The basis of fuel oil was not available on May 27, and the crude oil/asphalt ratio was 0.1302 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of various chemicals such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of natural rubber on May 27 was - 95 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) were presented for chemicals like natural rubber, methanol, and PTA [11]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc., also showed variations on different dates [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of rebar on May 27 was 140.0 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads were presented for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal [16]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Ratios such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, and coke/coking coal, as well as the spread of rebar - hot - rolled coil, were provided [16]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of copper on May 27 was 370 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss were provided for copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the LME spread of copper on May 27 was 40.08 [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on May 27 was - 64 yuan/ton [40]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads were presented for various agricultural products [40]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Ratios such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., were provided [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had different values on different dates. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on May 27 was 30.20 [48]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Different inter - month spreads (next - current, current - quarter - current, etc.) were presented for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 [48].
宝城期货橡胶早报:偏空情绪占优,橡胶震荡偏弱-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:29
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优,沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空情绪占优,合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶(RU) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:偏弱运行 核心逻辑:随着宏观 ...
宝城期货甲醇早报-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:24
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly. In the short - term and mid - term, it will be in a volatile state, and the intraday view is volatile and weak. With the digestion of macro - positive factors, the methanol futures price is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the mid - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile and weak, and the reference view is weak operation. The core logic is the weak supply - demand structure which restricts the methanol rebound [1]. 3.2 Price and Drive Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is volatile and weak, and the mid - term view is volatile. The reference view is weak operation. The core logic is that after the digestion of macro - positive factors, the futures price is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Domestic coal - to - methanol plants are restarting, increasing supply pressure. Downstream demand improvement is limited, and the profit of methanol - to - olefin futures has declined, which is not conducive to inventory reduction. With the expected increase in imports, the future social inventory accumulation pressure will increase. Although the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday night with a slight increase of 0.45% to 2209 yuan/ton, it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday [5]. 3.3 Remarks - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% decline is volatile and weak, 0 - 1% increase is volatile and strong, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise [3] - The volatile and strong/weak view is only for the intraday view, and no distinction is made for the short - term and mid - term [4]
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures is oscillating strongly, while the medium - term trend is oscillating. The market sentiment of soybean meal is boosted by the alleviation of trade concerns and the fermentation of weather topics, and the domestic supply improvement expectation is continuous. The palm oil market is in a game between production growth and export sustainability, and its fundamentals are slightly better than soybean oil [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the alleviation of trade concerns and the fermentation of weather topics, the US soybean futures price continues to rebound, supporting domestic soybean futures prices. The domestic supply improvement expectation is continuous, and the oil refinery inventory accumulation expectation is increasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of the oil refinery's picking - up rhythm and downstream replenishment rhythm on prices. The short - term soybean meal futures price enters a stage of rebound, and the internal - external linkage is enhanced [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the supply of Southeast Asian palm oil increases, the competitiveness of palm oil exports affects the inventory pressure of Southeast Asian palm oil. Due to Indonesia's increase in palm oil export taxes and Malaysia's reduction of the export tax on crude palm oil in June, Indonesian palm oil has lost its price competitiveness compared to Malaysia. The market is in a game between production growth and the sustainability of strong exports. Currently, the fundamentals of palm oil are slightly better than soybean oil. Affected by short - term funds, the palm oil futures price fluctuates more, but has not broken through the oscillation range [7]. Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].
宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:15
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2025 年 5 月 28 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望 | 美国经济预期转好,利空金价;地 | | | | | | 偏弱 | | 缘政治频发利多金价 | | | | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 上游强势,下游弱势,镍弱势运行 | | 镍 | 2507 | | | | | | 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种:黄金(AU) 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:观望 核心逻辑:昨日金价高位回落,纽约金一度跌破 3300 美元,沪金一度跌破 770 元,美元指数和美债 价格触底回升,美股也呈现上涨态势。整体市场风险偏好回升,避险需求下降。美国 5 月消费者信心 指数升至 98 ...
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:15
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's supply - demand fundamentals have changed. The market is bearish in the short - term, and the ore price is expected to continue the downward trend in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the decline in hot metal production [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term outlook is weakly volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the downward pressure on ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The demand for iron ore is weakening as steel mills' production slows down during the off - season, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. On the supply side, port arrivals are increasing, overseas miners' shipments remain high, and domestic ore production is active, leading to a large supply pressure. As a result, the iron ore fundamentals are continuously weakening, and the ore price is under pressure [2].
宝城期货国债期货早报-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:12
品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期继续降息可能性较低 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报(2025 年 5 月 28日) 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种:TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:区间震荡 核心逻辑:昨日各国债期货均震荡回调。目前海外美联储货币政策呈现鹰派,扰动央行利率降息节 奏。而国内 4 月经济数据有所走弱,5 月降息降准的政策效果有待观察,短期继续降息的可 ...
宝城期货煤焦早报-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:11
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 日内观点:震荡偏弱 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡思路 宝城期货煤焦早报(2025 年 5 月 28 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 市场预期疲弱,焦煤震荡下行 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 建材淡季临近,焦炭低位震荡 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种:焦煤(JM) 核心逻辑:现货市场方面,甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 97 ...
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:11
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025 年 5 月 28 日) ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面疲弱,钢价弱势运行 | ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局表现不佳,建筑钢厂生产积极,供应持续回升并处于年内高位,压力偏大;而 螺纹钢需求则是在走弱,周度表需环比下降,高频成交再度缩量,且后续仍将季节性走弱,供强需 弱局面下螺纹基本面相对疲弱,钢价继续承压运行,叠加市场情绪不佳,钢价延续弱势寻底态势, 关注需求变化情况。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱 ...
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250528
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 01:11
品种:IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报(2025 年 5 月 28日) 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 参考观点:区间震荡 核心逻辑:昨日各股指均震荡小幅回调。股市全市场成交额 10241 亿元,较上日缩量 97 亿元。目前 股市成交金额稳定在 1 万亿元附近,说明目前市场情绪处于偏中性状态 ...