Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Coke**: On May 28, the second - round price cut of coke was implemented. The latest quoted price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1340 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan. The supply of coke increased slightly, while the demand decreased. Coke inventory increased significantly at independent coking plants, indicating that steel mills were cautious in purchasing. The coke market was affected by coking coal, with a bearish atmosphere, and the futures main contract fluctuated downward [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: On May 29, the main contract of coking coal closed at 759 points, down 3.98% intraday. The supply of coking coal was expected to shrink in late May, and the supply - demand pattern had been somewhat repaired but remained loose. The downstream price cut expectation still suppressed the market atmosphere, and the futures main contract maintained a weak operation [6][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - The US Federal Court blocked the tariff policy announced by Trump on April 2 from taking effect on May 28, ruling that his act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries with more exports to the US than imports was an overstep of power [8]. - On May 29, Mongolia's KH Company held an online auction for thermal coal. The starting price of washed medium coal was 350 yuan/ton, and all 25,600 tons on offer failed to sell [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Week - on - Week Change | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Change Compared to the Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Flat - Price) | 1340 yuan/ton | - 3.60% | - 6.94% | - 20.71% | - 34.31% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Warehouse - Out Price) | 1230 yuan/ton | - 3.15% | - 8.21% | - 24.07% | - 39.41% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 950 yuan/ton | - 2.06% | - 8.21% | - 19.49% | - 40.63% | | Jingtang Port Australian Coking Coal | 1280 yuan/ton | - 0.78% | - 1.54% | - 14.09% | - 41.28% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi Coking Coal | 1320 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 5.71% | - 13.73% | - 38.60% | [13] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1332.0 | - 1.62 | 1352.0 | 1322.0 | 28,870 | 7,770 | 56,432 | - 1,050 | | Coking Coal | | 759.0 | - 3.98 | 779.5 | 757.0 | 709,680 | 172,305 | 540,328 | 13,462 | [14] Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [15][17][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking - plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [21][24][26]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, coking - plant operation, etc [27][30][31] Market Outlook - **Coke**: The second - round price cut was implemented, with supply increasing slightly and demand decreasing. Inventory accumulated at coking plants, and the market was expected to remain bearish in the short term [33]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply was expected to shrink, but the supply - demand pattern was still loose. The downstream price cut expectation suppressed the market, and the futures would maintain a weak operation [34].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price opened higher in the morning and showed an overall trend of increasing positions and rising prices during the day, with the main contract price breaking through the 78,000 mark. Favorable factors include a good market atmosphere, a decline in the US dollar index, and a slight decrease in social inventories. It is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short - term, and investors can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price opened higher in the morning and maintained a strong performance during the day. The position increased slightly, and the main contract price broke through the 20,200 mark. Benefiting from good downstream demand, social inventories of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline at a low level. It is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short - term, and investors can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom last night. The main contract price once fell below the 119,000 mark, but then continued to rise with decreasing positions during the day, indicating a strong willingness of short - sellers to close their positions. It is expected that the price will continue to rebound [7]. 3. Section Summaries Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On May 29, ICSG reported that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 17,000 tons in March 2025, down from 180,000 tons in February. The production was 2.43 million tons and consumption was 2.41 million tons. From January to March 2025, the global copper market had a surplus of 289,000 tons, compared with 268,000 tons in the same period last year. After adjustment, the surplus in March was 38,000 tons. Also, Chile raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, expecting an average price of $4.30 per pound this year [9]. - **Nickel**: On May 29, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE Ni2507 contract. The prices of different types of nickel with their respective premiums were provided, such as Jinchuan electrolytic nickel at 122,910 yuan/ton with a premium of +2,600 yuan/ton [10]. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理，小幅下跌。股市全市场成交额 10339 亿元，较上日放量 98 亿元。 目前股指上行空间以及下行空间均较为有限，政策面托底需求以及稳定股市预期的支撑作用较强，而 外部不确定性风险以及内需走弱则分别从风险偏好以及盈利预期两方面抑制股指的上行动能。当前 市场风险偏好谨慎乐观，市场驱动力量不强。总的来说，预计短期内股指区间震荡为主。。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are running weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2510, short - term: weak oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: weak oscillation. The view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of accumulated fundamental contradictions and weak steel price operation. The calculation of price change amplitude is based on the closing price of night trading (for varieties with night trading) or yesterday's closing price (for varieties without night trading) as the starting price and the closing price of the day's daytime session as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% a strong oscillation, and a rise of more than 1% an increase. Strong/weak oscillation only applies to intraday views [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar are weak. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and supply has continued to rise and is at a high level this year. Demand has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing month - on - month, high - frequency transactions being sluggish, and the seasonal weakening expectation remaining unchanged. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental contradictions of rebar are accumulating, and steel prices will still be under pressure. Coupled with weak market sentiment, steel prices will maintain a weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rebounded from a low level, with a daily increase of 0.47%. The supply and demand pattern has not changed significantly. Although the weekly output decreased slightly, it remains at a high level for the year. Demand is stable but has a seasonal weakening expectation. With inventory at a low level, steel prices are expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.32%. Both supply and demand have increased. Supply has returned to a high level for the year, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. With overseas risks easing, steel prices are expected to continue to be under pressure and fluctuate at a low level [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore rebounded from a low level, with a daily increase of 1.29%. In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is declining. At the same time, port arrivals have increased slightly, and overseas miners' shipments remain high. With the futures price deeply discounted, ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The US Federal Court blocked the tariff policy announced by President Trump on April 2, ruling that he overstepped his authority [8]. - In Q1 2025, the domestic sales volume of refrigeration and air - conditioning valves reached 19.915 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [9]. - Fortescue postponed the full - production time of its Iron Bridge Magnetite Project to the 2028 fiscal year. The annual shipment volume is expected to be 10 - 12 million tons in the 2026 fiscal year, 16 - 20 million tons in the 2027 fiscal year, and reach the full - load capacity of 22 million tons in the 2028 fiscal year [10]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,090, 3,160, and 3,230 respectively. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,200, 3,150, and 3,270 respectively. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port is 737 [11]. 3. Futures Market | Product | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,978 | 0.47 | 1,945,056 | 611,105 | 2,377,320 | - 64,068 | | Hot - rolled Coil | 3,110 | 0.32 | 809,980 | 357,449 | 1,552,234 | 15,120 | | Iron Ore | 707.0 | 1.29 | 504,680 | 217,338 | 716,254 | - 5,254 | [13] 4. Related Charts - There are charts showing the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, as well as the production situation of steel mills, including the opening rate of electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of arc - furnace steel mills [15][29] 5. Future Market Judgment - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has not improved. Supply has slightly contracted but the reduction is unlikely to be sustainable. Demand is stable but has a seasonal weakening expectation. With inventory at a low level, steel prices will continue to be under pressure and seek a bottom [37]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have increased. Supply has returned to a high level, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. With overseas risks easing, steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level [38]. - Iron Ore: In the off - season, steel mill production is weakening, and ore demand is declining. Supply pressure remains high. With the futures price deeply discounted, ore prices will fluctuate at a low level [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures products on May 29, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][15][24][38][46] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from May 22 to May 28, 2025, shows a constant value of - 190.4 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis on May 28, 2025, was - 5.39 yuan/ton. The fuel oil basis and the crude oil/asphalt ratio also have corresponding data from May 22 to May 28 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., are provided from May 22 to May 28, 2025 [11] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of black metal products including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented from May 22 to May 28, 2025 [16] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from May 22 to May 28, 2025, are given [25] 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on May 28, 2025, are provided [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from May 22 to May 28, 2025, are shown [39] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures are provided [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be in a sideways pattern, while the intraday trend is expected to be slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the positive factors for demand are weakening, and the ore price is oscillating at a low level [1]. - The supply - demand situation of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening during the off - season, leading to a continuous decline in ore demand and a weakening of positive effects. Meanwhile, port arrivals have slightly increased, overseas miners' shipments remain high, and domestic ore production is active, resulting in high ore supply. The situation of strong supply and weak demand puts pressure on the ore price. However, the deep discount of the futures price provides some resistance to the downward movement. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price has entered a low - level sideways pattern, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is sideways, the medium - term trend is sideways, and the intraday trend is slightly bullish. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that demand positives are weakening and the ore price is oscillating at a low level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production is weakening during the off - season, ore demand is declining, and the positive effect is weakening. Port arrivals have increased slightly, overseas miners' shipments are high, and domestic ore production is active, so the supply pressure remains. The situation of strong supply and weak demand puts pressure on the ore price. The deep discount of the futures price provides resistance to the downward movement. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price is in a low - level sideways pattern, and the performance of finished steel products should be noted [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Gold has a long - term upward trend, but mid - and short - term multi - and short - side games intensify. The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are mainly oscillatory, with the intraday being oscillatory and weak. The core logic is that the US economic outlook turning better is negative for gold prices, while frequent geopolitical events are positive. Also, the recent rise in the US dollar index, US Treasury prices, and the US stock market has led to a decline in risk aversion demand [1][3]. - Nickel is expected to be weak in the short term. The short - term view is a decline, the mid - term is oscillatory, and the intraday is oscillatory and weak. The core logic is that the upstream is strong while the downstream is weak, and the recent increase in the rumor of an increase in the Indonesian nickel ore quota has led to a significant decline in nickel prices. Technically, the short - term price has broken through the technical support of 120,000, and it may continue to operate weakly [1][5]. 3) Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price oscillated narrowly above 770, then oscillated downward at night, broke through 770, and then rebounded after hitting the bottom [3]. - **Market Environment**: The US dollar index and US Treasury prices have bottomed out and rebounded, and the US stock market has also shown an upward trend, leading to a decline in risk aversion demand [3]. - **View**: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, with the intraday being oscillatory and weak. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, but mid - and short - term multi - and short - side games intensify [1][3]. Nickel (NI) - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the nickel price dropped significantly with increased positions in the afternoon, the main contract price broke through the 120,000 mark, then oscillated and stabilized; at night, it once broke through 119,000 and then rebounded after hitting the bottom. Recently, the nickel price has been oscillating downward and accelerated yesterday [5]. - **Market Environment**: Affected by the rumor of an increase in the Indonesian nickel ore quota, the nickel price dropped significantly [5]. - **View**: Short - term view is a decline, mid - term is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and weak. The short - term bears have an obvious advantage, and the price may continue to operate weakly after breaking through the technical support of 120,000 [1][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. Recently, the concentrated issuance of Treasury bonds on the supply - side and the relatively high coupon rate, which is attractive to risk - averse funds, have put pressure on the prices of Treasury bond futures. [4] - The Ministry of Finance announced today that it plans to conduct the third re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds (Phase II), with a total amount of 7.1 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 1.88%. As the current yield to maturity of 10 - year Treasury bonds is around 1.7%, market liquidity has tightened in the short term. [4] - In the medium - to - long term, the monetary policy remains moderately loose, so the downside space for Treasury bond futures is limited. Overall, in the short term, both the upside and downside space for Treasury bond futures are limited, and they will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News and Related Charts - On May 29, the People's Bank of China conducted 26.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 15.45 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net injection of 11.15 billion yuan. [6] - On May 29, the Ministry of Finance plans to conduct the third re - issuance of the 2025 ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds (Phase II). The re - issued bonds are 30 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bonds, with a competitive tender face - value total of 7.1 billion yuan and no additional bids from Class A members. The coupon rate is the same as that of the previously issued bonds of the same period, at 1.88%. [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the crude oil 2507 contract are mainly volatile, with an intraday weak - volatile trend, and the overall reference view is a weak operation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract slightly rose 0.84% to 457.4 yuan/barrel [5] 3.2 Core Logic - As the US debt crisis approaches in June, the "gray rhino" effect may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the market generally expects an additional increase of 411,000 barrels per day in July. Based on the current monthly increase rate, it may completely cancel the remaining 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts by the end of October, increasing supply pressure [5]