Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to operate weakly with a volatile trend on Tuesday, February 13, 2026 [1][5][7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: weakly. Overall, it is expected to operate weakly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, geopolitical risks have weakened, and the expectation of a decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply has dissipated, reducing the bullish drive. Currently, the domestic natural rubber producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex, while Southeast Asia is still in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. After the previous bullish factors are digested, the Shanghai rubber futures opened high and closed low on the night of Monday, maintaining a volatile and stable trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: weakly. Overall, it is expected to operate weakly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight circulation of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some plants reducing production or shutting down, and the supply is expected to decline. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. The Shanghai rubber futures maintain a volatile and strong pattern, indirectly supporting the synthetic rubber futures. After the previous bullish factors are digested, the synthetic rubber futures opened high and closed low on the night of Monday, maintaining a volatile and weak trend [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2603 variety is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with a weakening trend in the intraday period, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation state. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations for monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to factors such as the weakening of the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures and the insufficient upward momentum, it is expected to be mainly in an oscillatory consolidation state in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term outlook is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weak, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. As the price of Treasury bond cash bonds fell, the interest rate cut expectations implied by the Treasury bond yield to maturity faded, and the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate emerged. Coupled with the central bank's resumption of net investment in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakened. However, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. But the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in December, inflation data improved, and the short - term urgency of interest rate cuts weakened, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for Treasury bond futures [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core Views - For methanol (MA) 2605, it is expected to run with a bullish bias in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday. The overall view is a bullish run due to improved supply - demand structure [1][5] - The biggest support for methanol price before the holiday comes from the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, a major import source, faces serious supply disruptions. Domestic port methanol inventory reduction drives up port spot prices, strengthens the basis, and boosts long - position confidence in the futures market [5] - Although methanol futures were dragged down by the decline of domestic coal futures on Monday and showed a slightly bearish and volatile trend, the retracement space is limited. It is expected to maintain a bullish and volatile pattern on Tuesday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol 2605 Market Outlook - Short - term (within one week): Oscillating [1] - Mid - term (two weeks to one month): Oscillating [1] - Intraday: Bullish [1] - Overall view: Bullish run [1] - Core logic: Improved supply - demand structure leads to a bullish and volatile trend [1] Methanol (MA) Price Driving Logic - Intraday view: Bullish [5] - Mid - term view: Oscillating [5] - Reference view: Bullish run [5] - Core logic: Overseas supply contraction, domestic port inventory reduction, and the impact of coal futures price fluctuations [5]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The USDA's January supply and demand report had an unexpectedly bearish impact on the soybean market, causing a significant drop in US soybean futures prices and potentially dragging down domestic soybean futures prices. The overall short - term soybean futures prices have weakened due to the lower import cost support [5][6]. - The palm oil market is in a game between potential policy benefits from Indonesia and the high inventory pressure in Malaysia. The short - term palm oil futures price rebound is approaching the upper limit of the range, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weak; Reference view: weak [5]. - **Core Logic**: The USDA raised the US 2025/26 soybean production forecast, lowered the US soybean export forecast, and raised the US soybean inventory. It also raised the Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts, leading to an increase in the global soybean ending inventory forecast. These factors put pressure on US soybean futures prices and may drag down domestic soybean futures prices [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The strong palm oil export data in early January in Malaysia effectively offset the neutral impact of the MPOB December report. The market is in a game between the potential policy benefits from Indonesia and the high inventory pressure in Malaysia, and the futures price is approaching the upper limit of the range and may fluctuate [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注： 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡上涨，其中 IM 与 IC 涨幅较大。沪深京三市成交额 36445 亿元，较上 日成交额放量 4922 亿元。由于股指已经突破前期的震荡区间上沿，后续股指大概率保持相对强势。 目前股市成交金额大幅放量，融资买入金额保持高位，说明投资者风险偏好较为乐观。不过目前股市 反弹主要来自于估值端的提升，特别是受益于扶持科技创新政策利好以及杠杆资金偏好的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 升 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期避险需求上 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 宏观氛围冷却，短期多头了结意 上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 13 日） 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日金价强势运行，纽约金触及 4600 美元关口 ...

一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2025-12-15 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 24888 | 25660 | 23288 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M0:同比 | % | 10.6 | 11.7 | 12.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.0 | -0.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M2:同比 | % | 8.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Report Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 13, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from January 6 to January 12, 2026, shows values ranging from - 113 to - 101 yuan/ton [2]. - No significant changes in the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads during this period [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are presented, with values like - 45.85 for INE crude oil on January 12 [7]. Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from January 6 to January 12, 2026, show fluctuations. For example, rubber basis was - 430 yuan/ton on January 12 [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread for LLDPE is 240 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are given. The LLDPE - PVC spread was 1866 yuan/ton on January 12 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are shown. For example, the rebar basis was 165 yuan/ton on January 12 [21]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The 5 - 1 month spread for rebar is 26 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are provided. The rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.84 on January 12 [20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are given. Copper basis was - 800 yuan/ton on January 12 [30]. London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 12, 2026, are presented. The LME spread for copper is 64.31 [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are shown. The soybean No.1 basis was - 276 yuan/ton on January 12 [38]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are provided. The 5 - 1 month spread for soybeans No.1 is 16 yuan/ton [38]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on January 12, 2026, are given. The soybean oil/soybean meal ratio is 2.86 [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are presented. The CSI 300 basis was 15.92 on January 12 [49]. - Inter - period spreads for the next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. The next - month - current - month spread for CSI 300 is - 78 [49].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 期货研究报告 股市风险偏好上升，股指持续上涨 今日各股指均震荡上涨，其中中证 1000 与中证 500 涨幅较大。沪深京 三市成交额 36445 亿元，较上日成交额放量 4922 亿元。由于股指已经突破 前期的震荡区间上沿，后续股指大概率保持相对强势。目前股市成交金额大 幅放量，融资买入金额保持高位，说明投资者风险偏好较为乐观。不过目前 股市反弹主要来自于估值端的提升，特别是受益于扶持科技创新政策利好 以及杠杆资金偏好的科技股票涨幅较大，大小盘指数表现有所分化。总的来 说政策面利好预期以及资金净流入股市趋势共同构成股指上行的主要逻 辑，预计短期内股指震荡偏强运行。 期权方面，目前持仓量 PCR 与隐含波动率均有所回升，可以牛市价差 的思路对待。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 核心观点 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格 ...

投资咨询证号：Z0011688 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观氛围延续，煤焦偏强运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 1 月 9 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合 计 110.45 万吨，周环比增 0.9 万吨；下游 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 229.5 万吨，周环比增 2.07 万吨。本周，下游钢厂逐渐复产，但复产速 度偏缓，焦炭基本面改善幅度有限，相对利好仍在于上游焦煤的供应端强 预期。综上，焦炭自身基本面支撑仍较为乏力，不过进入新一年度后，经 济政策预期、"反内卷"政策预期，以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐 显，带动焦炭期货低位反弹。 焦煤：截至 1 月 9 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 73.4 万 吨，周环比增 4.4 万吨，较去年同期产量偏低 6.9 万吨。需求方面，截至 1 月 9 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 110.45 万吨，周环比增 0.9 万吨。整体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增 格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经 ...