投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货延续底部震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均高开，全天小幅收涨。消息面，上周五特朗普突发关税 威胁，资本市场风险偏好快速回落，避险情绪升温，利多国债期货。从宏观 基本面的角度来看，目前国内需求有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来需要偏宽 松的货币环境，政策宽松预期仍存，对国债期货构成较强支撑。不过短期内 国内经济数据表现较强韧性，短期内全面降息的必要性有所不足，目前市场 利率与政策利率直接隐含的降息预期较弱，国债期货上行动能也有所不足。 总的来说，短期内国债期货上行动能与下行空间均有限，以底部震荡整理为 主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色日内企稳 核心观点 沪铜 上周五夜盘，铜价由于中美贸易摩擦预期而大幅下挫，沪铜跌近 3000 元/吨。周一凌晨，美国总统特朗普再度发文，被市场视为 "TACO"交易。短期利空冲击在周五夜盘反映较为充分，国内周一 开盘前，LME 铜价触底回升，悲观情绪并未延续。沪铜早盘高开后围 绕 8.5 万一线震荡运行，持仓量变化不大。预计铜价持续企稳回升。 沪铝 上周五夜盘，铝价由于中美贸易摩擦预期而大幅下挫，沪铝跌近 300 元/吨。周一凌晨， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 10 月 13 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 贸易摩擦预期升温，市场避险需求上升 核心观点 今年国庆假期国际黄金价格持续上涨。纽约期金和伦敦金突破 4000 美元/盎司关键心理关口，假期涨幅超 4%，年内涨幅超 50%。此 番金价强势表现主要源于三大驱动因素的共振：1. 避险需求激增： 政府停摆与地缘冲突主导；2. 货币政策预期：降息交易与美元信用 受损；3. 资金结构性涌入：央行与 ETF 买盘共振全球央行净购金潮延 续。技术上，持续关注海外金价 4000 美元多空博弈，对应国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on copper prices. Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark. This was due to the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure as copper prices were at a near 5-year high, leading to a strong willingness among short-term bulls to close positions. The sharp rise was mainly caused by supply shortages, macro and financial attributes, and demand resilience. On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, but as prices fell, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. The short-term negative impact was fully reflected in Friday's night session, and LME copper prices rebounded before the domestic market opened on Monday. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Sino-US trade friction expectations have intensified, putting pressure on aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit. However, aluminum prices faced certain pressure at the mid-September high, and there was a strong willingness among bulls to close positions. After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories also put pressure on futures prices. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - On Friday night, the renewed rise in Sino-US trade friction expectations led to a general market decline, with the non-ferrous sector under significant pressure and copper leading the decline, with SHFE copper falling nearly 3,000 yuan/ton. Since late September, copper prices have recorded significant gains, so short-term bulls have a strong willingness to close positions. At the industrial level, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices after the holiday, but as prices fall, industrial support may continue to strengthen. The rise in tariff expectations will affect downstream export expectations, putting pressure on the non-ferrous sector. Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. On Monday morning, US President Trump issued another statement, regarded by the market as a "TACO" trade [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, copper prices rose and then fell. LME copper once reached the $11,000 mark, and SHFE copper reached the 88,000 mark, affected by the decline of precious metals, the rebound of the US dollar index, and strong technical pressure [4][54]. - **Copper Ore Processing Fees**: Copper ore processing fees have rebounded slightly from a low level [25]. - **Electrolytic Copper De-stocking**: The pace of electrolytic copper de-stocking has slowed down [28]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: No specific content provided in the report. 3.3 Aluminum - **Volume and Price Trends**: Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. On Friday night, affected by Sino-US trade friction, aluminum prices declined significantly. Since late September, driven by the rise in copper prices, the non-ferrous sector has generally risen, and aluminum prices have followed suit [5][55]. - **Upstream Industry Chain**: No specific content provided in the report. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Stockpiling**: The pace of electrolytic aluminum stockpiling has slowed down [44]. - **Downstream Primary Sector**: After the holiday, downstream buyers were cautious at high prices, and the continuous increase in downstream aluminum rod inventories put pressure on futures prices [5][55]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices can stop falling and stabilize. Sustainable attention can be paid to the technical support at the 83,000 mark, and copper prices may continue to stabilize and rebound [4][54]. - **Aluminum**: Short-term attention should be paid to whether copper prices in the non-ferrous sector can stabilize, which largely determines the direction of the sector. Technically, SHFE aluminum can focus on the support at the late-September low [5][55].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 关税扰动情绪，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡回落，录得 0.77%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹供应收缩，而需求表现偏弱，供需双弱局面下产业矛盾持续累积， 假期库存大幅增加，钢价再度承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计螺纹 延续震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.88%日跌幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷供应压力偏大，且需求存有隐忧，产业矛盾在累积，库存显著 增加，热卷价格继续承压偏弱运行，且需谨防需求转弱引发产业矛盾激 化，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 1.13%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶 段，矿石需求表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但供应高位，且需求韧性趋 弱，基本面存走弱预期，加之关税扰动下市场情绪走弱，高估值矿价上 行驱动不强，预期走势维持高位震荡运行，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 构建认购牛市价差策略正当时 6 月下旬以来，沪深 300 指数加速上行，累计涨幅超 20%。考虑到 10 月政策利好预期即将落地，年内 后两个月的政策利好驱动将边际减弱，获利资金止盈意愿有所上升，沪深 300 指数或趋于宽幅震荡。单纯 利用股票、ETF 或股指期货等线性损益工具进行资产配置需要承受较大的波动风险，而利用期权的非线性 损益特性，能够对风险收益进行精细化管理，得到具有个性化风险收益特征的期权组合策略。在构建期权 组合策略的时候，我们需要从期权持仓量 PCR、隐含波动率以及标的指数方向等多个维度综合考虑。 [期权持仓量 PCR 表明市场情绪偏积极] 从期权持仓量 PCR 的角度来看，持仓量 PCR 能够反映市场多空双方的情绪变化。一般而言，持仓量 PCR 与市场情绪呈正相关关系，这是因为期权卖方是比较专业的投资者，持有卖出认沽期权说明其对后市 行情是看不跌的。国庆假期后首日，沪深 300 股指期权的持仓量 PCR 从上一交易日的 94.14%大幅上升至 100.19%，位于 2023 年以来的分位数水平由 91.7%上升至 94 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on October 13, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][19][26][39][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data for thermal coal from September 26 to October 10, 2025, is presented, with the basis on October 10 being - 96.4 yuan/ton, and the 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads all being 0.0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil, etc., from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are provided, such as the basis of INE crude oil on October 10 being 47.20 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of rubber on October 10 was - 665 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [11]. - Inter - variety data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are given, like the LLDPE - PVC spread on October 10 being 2298 yuan/ton [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rebar on October 10 was 157.0 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - period data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9(10) - month minus 1 - month, and 9(10) - month minus 5 - month spreads [20]. - Inter - variety data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are given, such as the rebar/iron ore ratio on October 10 being 3.91 [20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on October 10 was 700 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME non - ferrous metal data including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on October 10, 2025, are provided, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No. 1 on October 10 was 7327.3 yuan/ton [39]. - Inter - period data for soybeans No. 1, soybeans No. 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are presented, including 5 - month minus 1 - month, 9 - month minus 1 - month, and 9 - month minus 5 - month spreads [39]. - Inter - variety data for soybeans No. 1/corn, soybeans No. 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, etc., from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are given, such as the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on October 10 being 2.85 [39]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 26 to October 10, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on October 10 was 24.63 [50]. - Inter - period data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented, including next - month minus current - month and next - quarter minus current - quarter spreads [50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 股指衍生品 | 周报 2025 年 10 月 13 日 股指衍生品 专业研究·创造价值 特朗普突发关税威胁，短线扰动股指 核心观点 股指期货：特朗普突发关税威胁，短线扰动股指 上周各股指均冲高回落，小幅下跌。由于股票估值端提升明显， 获利资金的止盈意愿有所上升，加上政策利好即将落地，后市的政 策利好驱动将边际走弱，股指高位回落。中长期来看，政策利好预 期以及资金面持续流入趋势仍对股指构成较强支撑。股指后续走势 重点关注政策利好预期发酵节奏与获利资金止盈节奏的相互博弈。 消息面，特朗普周五晚间威胁大幅提高关税，周五外盘美股三大指 数均大幅下跌。从短期影响来看，特朗普的突然转向对未来全球贸 易局势带来不确定风险，考虑到若美国单方面升级关税，中国将被 迫采取反制措施，市场情绪迅速转为避险，短线令股市承压，需注 意周一股指低开风险。本次升级在今年 4 月已有预演，本轮对 A 股 的影响边际上弱于 4 月初，长线影响相对有限。总的来说，短期内 股指以宽幅震荡为主。 ETF 期权与股指期权：低波状态下，维持牛市价差 期权的隐含波动率有所回落，处于较低分位数水平，由于股指 ...

x30003 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 甲醇 | 周报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2025 年 10 月 13 日 甲醇周报 专业研究·创造价值 偏空因素主导 甲醇偏弱运行 核心观点 甲醇：美国总统特朗普再度掀起关税战，目标直指中国，引发 上周五外围金融市场集体走弱。同时美国两党迟迟无法达成共识，导 致联邦政府持续停摆。除了宏观情绪转弱外，当前国内甲醇供需基本 面也较为疲弱。在偏空因素压制下，上周五国内甲醇期货 2601 合约虽 超跌反弹，但缺乏继续上行的动力，均线维持空头排列的态势。 甲醇-MA 美国两党迟迟无法达成共识，导致联邦政府持续停 ...

ni 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 10 月 13 日 原油周报 多重利空叠加 原油大幅回落 核心观点 原油：美国总统特朗普再度掀起关税战，目标直指中国，引 发上周五外围金融市场集体走弱。同时美国两党迟迟无法达成共 识，导致联邦政府持续停摆。在系统性风险爆发的背景下，利空情 绪快速传导并引发上周五国内原油期货 2512 合约大幅收低 4.27% 至 448.5 元/桶。预计后市国内原油期货 2512 合约或维持震荡偏弱 的走势。 原油-SC 宝城期货金融研究所 美国两党迟迟无法达成共识， ...