Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is strongly operating. The main contract LC2605.GFE in the futures market closed at 156,060 yuan/ton, up 12,640 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The spot price of lithium carbonate was 152,120 yuan/ton, up 8.63% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The current basis is -3300 points, a negative basis (spot discount), 160 points weaker than the previous day, and the basis has strengthened overall in the past 10 trading days. The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate is 25,970 lots, an increase of 610 lots (+2.41%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days. The reduction of the tax refund rate has led to the front - loading of short - term demand for lithium carbonate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 156,060 yuan/ton, up 12,640 yuan/ton from the previous day and 26,080 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the settlement price was 155,420 yuan/ton, up 12,240 yuan/ton from the previous day and 28,860 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica from different origins have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Australian CIF6 Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate is 2040 - 2150 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 85 - 105 US dollars/ton from the previous day and 470 - 500 US dollars/ton from 5 trading days ago. The average price of lithium mica in the Chinese market has also increased [6]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 152,120 yuan/ton, up 12,080 yuan/ton from the previous day and 32,590 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 143,030 yuan/ton, up 10,990 yuan/ton from the previous day and 32,140 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium have changed. For example, the price of the ternary precursor (523) was 106,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but up 10,000 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: There are charts presenting the prices of manganese acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [10][13][15]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of the main lithium carbonate contract [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.60%, showing a pattern of decreasing volume and increasing open interest. With supply increasing and demand weak, the fundamental contradiction has accumulated. Although the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, the rebar price is expected to continue the oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil also oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.55%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. In the current situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are weak, and the price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and its trend is expected to maintain an oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.92%, and both volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the supply of iron ore is high while the demand improvement is limited, so the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the warm commodity sentiment and pre - holiday restocking support. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price maintains a high - level operation. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In December 2025, 482 projects started across the country with a total investment of about 534.092 billion yuan. The total investment in 2025 was about 27.52 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of start - up investment in December were Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Anhui, with total investments of 121.238 billion yuan, 59.41 billion yuan, and 49.103 billion yuan respectively [7]. - As of January 12, 2026, 21 car companies announced their 2025 production and sales data. These 21 car companies sold a total of 25.0233 million vehicles in 2025. BYD led the domestic market with sales of 4.6024 million vehicles. SAIC Group ranked first in production with 4.602 million vehicles in 2025, followed by BYD with 4.5374 million vehicles. 18 car companies saw their sales increase in 2025. XPeng Motors had the highest growth rate of 125.94%, followed by Leapmotor with 103.10%, and BAIC BluePark with 84.06% [8]. - Since January 12, 2026, Handan has launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, which is expected to be lifted around January 17 due to poor atmospheric diffusion conditions [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan, and the national average was 3,341 yuan. The price changes were 20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 4 yuan respectively [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan, and the national average was 3,311 yuan. The price changes were 20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 5 yuan respectively [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,970 yuan with a change of - 10 yuan [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,090 yuan with no change [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 825 yuan with a change of 7 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet - basis): The price was 777 yuan with no change [10]. - Freight rates: Australian freight was 7.84 yuan with a change of - 0.08 yuan, and Brazilian freight was 21.13 yuan with a change of - 0.46 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 108.34 yuan with a change of 0.49 yuan [10]. - Platts Index (CFR): The price was 108.50 yuan with a change of 0.30 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,165 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.60%. The highest price was 3,174 yuan, the lowest was 3,141 yuan, the trading volume was 957,432 lots (a decrease of 212,075 lots), and the open interest was 1,726,703 lots (an increase of 11,840 lots) [13]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,311 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The highest price was 3,320 yuan, the lowest was 3,289 yuan, the trading volume was 408,729 lots (a decrease of 106,874 lots), and the open interest was 1,427,498 lots (an increase of 10,408 lots) [13]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 822.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.92%. The highest price was 826.0 yuan, the lowest was 817.0 yuan, the trading volume was 272,044 lots (an increase of 1,717 lots), and the open interest was 654,834 lots (an increase of 14,950 lots) [13]. 4. Related Charts - Steel inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 - 2026 [15][21][25]. - Iron ore inventory: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, inventory of 247 steel mills, and inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate powder [23][24][26]. - Steel mill production: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][33][35]. 5. Future Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has weakened. The weekly output increased by 2.82 tons, and the demand decreased by 25.48 tons. With the accumulation of fundamental contradictions, the rebar price is under pressure in the off - season. Although there is positive commodity sentiment and cost support, it is expected to continue the oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [40]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output increased by 1.00 tons, and the demand decreased by 2.43 tons. With high inventory and weakening demand, the price is under pressure. Although the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The inventory is rising, and the demand improvement is limited due to the poor profitability of steel mills and the off - season steel market. The supply is at a relatively high level. Although there is warm commodity sentiment and pre - holiday restocking support, the ore price is expected to maintain a high - level operation. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing advantages of domestic and foreign natural rubber futures vary significantly. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) takes the lead globally with its consumption - end dominance, efficient mechanism, and global leadership. The Singapore Exchange (SGX) solidifies its regional pricing core with production - sales connection, cross - border adaptation, and regional radiation. The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) has its pricing advantage continuously weakened and has become a follower due to the lack of industrial support and mechanism defects [5][40]. - The mismatch in the global supply - demand pattern is the fundamental premise for the differentiation of advantages. The adaptability of delivery systems is the core support, the market positioning and investor structure are important influencing factors, and opening - up is external empowerment [5][40]. - The SHFE has achieved the global pricing core status. In the future, there is room for improvement in aspects such as delivery target adaptation, international participation, and cross - border transmission. The global authority of the "Shanghai Price" needs further strengthening. With the deepening of the "Belt and Road" rubber industry cooperation, the "futures + spot" linkage pricing model between China and Southeast Asian major producing countries can be further studied to help build a natural rubber pricing system of "Chinese pricing, globally recognized" [5][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot prices oscillated and rebounded, and the basis widened [1]. - Futures prices rose, and the monthly spread turned into a premium [1]. 3.2 Rubber Market Supply and Demand - The output of rubber - producing countries steadily recovered, increasing supply pressure [5]. - Tire operating rates slightly rebounded [5]. - Automobile market sales improved significantly [5]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone also rose [5]. 3.3 Research Background and Significance - Natural rubber is a key industrial raw material. The global production exceeds 14 million tons annually, with a supply - demand pattern of "major production in Southeast Asia, major consumption in East Asia". The mismatch in supply and demand makes the pricing power of the futures market a focus of competition among countries [11]. - The core of the pricing advantage of natural rubber futures includes three aspects: pricing foundation advantage, pricing mechanism advantage, and pricing influence [11]. - The global natural rubber futures market has three core platforms: TOCOM, SHFE, and SGX. In May 2025, the Osaka Exchange listed the "Shanghai Natural Rubber Futures" based on the SHFE's delivery settlement price, marking the official output of the "Chinese Price" overseas [12]. 3.4 Overview of the Operation Foundation of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures Markets - **Contract Design and Delivery Rules**: The SHFE uses domestic full - latex and imported RSS3 as delivery targets, with RMB pricing and physical delivery. TOCOM uses RSS3, with yen pricing and cash delivery. SGX uses TSR20, with US dollar pricing and physical delivery covering Southeast Asian ports [25]. - **Industrial Relying and Market Positioning**: China is the largest consumer of natural rubber. The SHFE serves the domestic real economy and leads global pricing. Japan focuses on high - end rubber product exports, and TOCOM is for international speculation and hedging. Singapore has no natural rubber production, and SGX acts as a bridge between production and consumption areas [26]. - **Investor Structure and Trading Activity**: The SHFE has domestic industrial and speculative customers. TOCOM has overseas speculative institutions and Japanese financial institutions. SGX has Southeast Asian traders and global institutions [27]. 3.5 Core Comparison of Pricing Advantages of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures Markets - **Pricing Foundation Support**: The SHFE has an absolute advantage in the consumer end. China's 45% global consumption share forms a strong pricing foundation. SGX has a hub support advantage in connecting production and sales. TOCOM's traditional advantage is weakening due to the shrinking consumption scale in Japan [30]. - **Pricing Mechanism Efficiency**: The SHFE has an efficient pricing mechanism with physical delivery. SGX has a cross - border adaptable pricing mechanism. TOCOM has insufficient pricing efficiency due to cash delivery and speculative capital dominance [32]. - **Pricing Influence**: The SHFE has a global leading pricing influence. SGX has a regional radiation pricing influence. TOCOM's traditional influence is shrinking and has become a follower [33]. 3.6 Analysis of the Causes of the Differences in Pricing Advantages of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures - The mismatch in the global natural rubber industrial supply - demand pattern is the fundamental premise. The SHFE has pricing power due to consumption - end dominance, SGX has supply - side information advantage, and TOCOM's traditional advantage weakens [36]. - The adaptability of delivery systems and contract design is the core support. The SHFE's physical delivery anchors the real economy, SGX's delivery targets fit global trade, and TOCOM's cash delivery leads to the weakening of pricing advantage [37]. - The synergy of market positioning and investor structure is an important influencing factor. The SHFE's positioning and investor structure ensure price alignment with the real economy, SGX's price reflects both production and consumption, and TOCOM's price deviates from supply and demand [37]. - The degree of opening - up and international layout affect pricing influence. The SHFE and SGX enhance their influence through opening - up, while TOCOM's influence is limited [38]. 3.7 Conclusion - The pricing advantages of the three exchanges vary significantly, with the SHFE leading globally, SGX being the regional core, and TOCOM becoming a follower [40]. - The causes of the differences include supply - demand mismatch, delivery system adaptability, market positioning and investor structure, and opening - up [40]. - The SHFE has the global pricing core status, and there is room for improvement in the future. The "Belt and Road" cooperation can help build a new pricing system [40].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2026 年第 2 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 3015.00 万吨，环比增 190.30 万吨，持续回升并至高位；其中澳矿、巴西矿分 别增 111.60、102.60 万吨，非澳巴矿环比降 23.90 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运持续回落，全球矿石发运总量为 3180.90 万吨，环比减 32.80 万吨，降幅显著收窄。 其中主流矿商增减互现，四大矿商合计减 3.72 万吨，发运有所企稳；细分地区看巴西矿环比减 128.40 万 吨，澳矿则是微降 8.00 万吨，非澳巴矿环比增 103.60 万吨，低位开始回升。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将高位回落，但降幅有限，海外供应维持相对高位。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The multi - short game for copper prices at high levels has intensified. Attention should be paid to the support at the 100,000 - yuan mark. Although the short - term upward momentum of copper prices is strong, they are at a historical high. The pressure on the domestic industrial side contradicts the strong macro expectations, and short - term futures prices may need to oscillate for digestion, waiting for the industry to catch up. The obvious increase in the social inventory of electrolytic copper last week reflects the resistance of downstream industries [5][57]. - **Aluminum**: The multi - short game for aluminum prices at high levels has intensified. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 2021 high. The strong performance of aluminum prices mainly comes from the high copper - aluminum ratio, and the increasing expectation of aluminum substitution for copper provides upward momentum. Short - term aluminum prices are facing technical pressure at the October 2021 high, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - The macro - market atmosphere cooled last week, with global stock indices and commodities showing a high - level decline. The short - term market risk preference decreased, and copper prices also dropped from high levels. Additionally, the continuous rebound of the US dollar index exerted pressure on copper prices, and the multi - short game for LME copper at the 13,000 - dollar mark intensified [10]. 2. Copper - **2.1 Quantity and Price Trends**: Copper prices first rose and then fell last week, generally oscillating above 100,000 yuan. The open interest of SHFE copper remained at a high level, and the multi - short game at high levels intensified [5][57]. - **2.2 Copper Ore Shortage**: Rio Tinto and Glencore have conducted preliminary negotiations on a super - merger. They produce a series of minerals including copper. Rio Tinto was the seventh - largest copper producer in 2024 with a production of 649,720 metric tons, and Glencore was the fourth - largest with a production of about 1 million tons in 2024 [24]. - **2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation**: On January 8, the social inventory of electrolytic copper monitored by Mysteel was 284,700 tons, a weekly increase of 37,600 tons. The inventory of COMEX + LME was 801,400 tons, a weekly increase of 44,200 tons. High copper prices have a suppressive effect on the global industry [26]. - **2.4 Downstream Primary Processing**: In December 2025, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 20.42%, higher than the expected 19.61%, but down 3.42 percentage points month - on - month and 15.92 percentage points year - on - year [28]. 3. Aluminum - **3.1 Quantity and Price Trends**: After the New Year's Day, aluminum prices showed an upward trend with increasing positions, breaking through the 24,000 - yuan mark. The short - term macro - atmosphere dominated the trend of aluminum prices. Since Wednesday, the macro - atmosphere cooled, and the willingness of funds to close positions increased, leading to a decline in aluminum prices from high levels. However, on Friday, aluminum prices were strong again, rising with increasing positions and approaching the previous high [6][57]. - **3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain**: On January 9, the port inventory of bauxite was 25.096 million tons, an increase of 886,000 tons from the previous week and 7.496 million tons higher than the same period in 2024. After the New Year's Day, alumina prices rebounded significantly, which may lead to a decline in the high - level profits of electrolytic aluminum plants [41][42]. - **3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction**: On January 8, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum monitored by Mysteel was 718,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from before the holiday. The overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 506,100 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons from the previous week. The overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory at a low level provided support for aluminum prices [46]. - **3.4 Downstream Primary Processing**: Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased significantly. As aluminum prices rose to the 24,000 - yuan level, downstream industries showed obvious fear of high prices. On January 8, the inventory of aluminum rods was 114,100 tons, an increase of 15,100 tons from the previous week [51][53]. 4. Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the multi - short game situation of copper and aluminum prices at high levels, the influence of macro and industrial factors, and the key technical levels to be concerned about [57].

期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 宝城期货投资咨询部 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2026 年 1 月 12 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价强势运行 核心观点 上周金价震荡上行，沪金再度站上1000元关口，纽约金站上4500 美元关口。金价再度逼近 12 月高位，短期资金关注度再度上升。 元旦节后，金价重返1000关口。从大类资产走势来看，委内瑞拉 事件后，市场的恐慌情绪并未蔓延，美股道指再创新高，节后市场风 险偏好和流动性依旧较高。而周内宏观氛围有所冷却，前期涨幅较好 的资产普遍回落，这一定程度上使黄金的避险需求上升，给予金价支 撑。技术上，可持续关注 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色普涨 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜高开，主力期价一度逼近 10.4 万关口，随后呈现高位震 荡态势，日内持仓量上升明显，沪铜持仓量已逼近 70 万张。周末归 来，市场宏观氛围依旧较好，日内无论是商品还是股市呈现普涨态 势。产业端，SMM 报道，铜价持续高位运行，对下游采购情绪形成显 著压制出库节奏疲软，国内电解铜社会库存已连续六周累库。 沪铝 今日沪铝冲高回落，持仓量上升明显。周一宏观氛围较好，有色 板块普涨，但铝日内表现较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term and mid - term outlooks are both "oscillation", the intraday outlook is "weak", and the overall view is "oscillation and consolidation" due to the low probability of short - term interest rate cuts and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weak", the mid - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The short - term interest rate cut possibility decreases due to positive macro - economic expectations, which puts pressure on bond futures prices. However, the downside space is limited. In the long - term, there is still support for bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within a week, and mid - term is from two weeks to one month. The TL2603 variety is expected to be in an oscillatory state in the short and mid - term, with a weak intraday trend, mainly due to the low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and long - term easing expectations [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - Last Friday, bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. The December inflation data showed that CPI rose moderately and PPI's decline narrowed, and the December manufacturing PMI was resilient. These positive macro - economic expectations reduced the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts, putting pressure on bond futures prices. But as the prices of bond spot fell, the implied interest rate cut expectations in bond yields faded, limiting the downside space. In the long - term, the need for a loose monetary and credit environment to address insufficient effective domestic demand provides support for bond futures, so it is expected to be in an oscillatory and consolidating state in the short - term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] - Geopolitical risks boost the market, and the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market is gradually weakening, leading to a strong rebound in crude oil futures prices last Friday and an expected oscillatory and strong trend for domestic crude oil futures on Monday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - For crude oil 2602, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with an overall reference view of strong operation [1] 3.2 Core Logic - The US President Trump frequently releases geopolitical risk signals, with Greenland and Mexico potentially becoming targets, and the US threatening a new round of military strikes on Iran, intensifying Middle - East geopolitical risks [5] - The re - strengthening of crude oil premium weakens the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market, supporting the strong rebound of crude oil futures prices last Friday and the expected strong trend on Monday [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消散， 利多驱动减弱。不过目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降， 而东南亚仍处于割胶旺季。同时胶市下游国内汽车产销数据偏乐观，12 月重卡销量数据好于预期。 随着前期利多因素逐渐消化，上周五夜盘国内沪胶期货维持震荡偏弱的走势。预计本周一国内沪胶 期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日 ...