时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 电煤需求旺盛，港口煤价小幅反 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 弹 | 备注： 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 核心逻辑：进入迎峰度冬关键时期，居民生活用电明显改善，且距离春节尚有两周时间，工业用 电尚未回落，短期内电厂煤炭日耗进入全年顶峰时段，下游电厂和其他终端企业补库需求仍存， 支撑煤价企稳小幅反弹。不过，在 1 月旺季的背景下，港口 5500K 煤价全月仅小幅上涨 11 元/吨， 同样反映出了当前煤炭基本面的乏力，以及市场对后续煤炭供需格局的偏空预期。整体来看，短 期需求旺盛、北港库存持续去化，以及下游终端企业 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to the reduced possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term [1] - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, the upward and downward drivers of treasury bond futures are both weak, mainly in a range of shock consolidation. On one hand, the macro - economic data in December weakened, showing insufficient effective domestic demand, so the future monetary and credit environment is relatively loose, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. On the other hand, the central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut in January, indicating that structural monetary policy is the central bank's first choice, and the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, with a view of shock consolidation, and the core logic is the reduced possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, treasury bond futures are in shock consolidation. The upward and downward drivers are weak. The weak December macro - economic data provides support due to loose future monetary and credit environment, while the January structural interest rate cut reduces the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut and the upward momentum [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：巴西丰收前景缓解阿根廷干旱担忧，中国采购未来数月或转向巴西采购。美豆出口销售环比骤 降。国内春节备货尾声，需求支撑有限。短期豆类市场情绪波动影响加大，需关注 2 月底巴西大范围收获 对美豆和国内豆粕的影响，短期豆类期价波动加剧，关注市场资金变化对价格的影响。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：强势 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：马棕产业链供需边际改善并未改变，机构预估马棕库存从 305 万吨峰值 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡运行 | 供需格局走弱，矿价延续震荡 | 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端变化不大，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗低位运行，且钢市产业矛盾累积，矿石 需求维持偏弱运行态势。与此同时，国内港口到货持续回落，但矿商发运在企稳，按船期推算后续到 货减量有限，相应内矿供应趋稳，叠加库存高企，供应压力尚存。总之，库存高企局面下矿石供应压 力未退，而矿石需求偏弱运行，矿石基本面未有改善，矿价继续承压运行，相对利好则是节前补库， 预计矿价延续震荡运行态势，关注钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 说 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly for shock consolidation, with short - term upward driving force weakened, while the medium - and long - term is supported by policy - side positive expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the valuation end has risen rapidly, the stock index is in shock consolidation, and demand is warming up [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that last Friday, each stock index fluctuated and declined, showing a trend of bottom - hunting and rebound throughout the day. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 286.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.7 billion yuan from the previous day. Affected by the fluctuation of precious metals, market sentiment weakened rapidly, and commodities with large previous increases generally corrected, and the stock index was also affected. Due to the clear expectation of the regulatory authorities to control risks and the fact that the increase of this round of stock rebound is mainly contributed by the valuation end, the short - term upward driving force of the stock index has weakened. The weakening of market sentiment caused by the precious metals market has led to an increase in the willingness of the capital side to take profits. In the medium and long term, the positive expectations on the policy side and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market constitute the main supporting force for the upward movement of the stock index [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the warm sentiment in the commodity market, steel prices once fluctuated higher. However, industrial contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, limiting the upward driving force. In January, steel prices continued to fluctuate at a low level under the game between expectations and reality [4][11][13]. - Steel inventories have started to accumulate, with differences among varieties. Construction steel inventories have increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in supply and the seasonal decline in demand, and the expectation of inventory increase during the holiday is strong. Plate inventories have slightly decreased but are still at the highest level in the same lunar period in recent years, and the de - stocking pressure remains [4][26][27]. - In the off - season, steel mill production has weakened, and steel supply has continued to shrink, with differences among varieties. At the beginning of the new year, the factors suppressing production have subsided, and steel mills have continued the resumption of production. However, due to the limited improvement in profitability, the motivation for a significant increase in production is not strong, and production is expected to stabilize, with steel supply remaining stable [4][47][54]. - Steel demand has weakened, with obvious differences among varieties. Construction steel shows obvious seasonal weakness, while plate demand remains stable at a high level and shows good resilience. Looking forward, the downstream industries of building materials have not improved, the real - estate fundamentals continue to be sluggish, and infrastructure investment is difficult to increase in the short term due to holiday factors. The relative positive factor is the expectation of policy benefits. At the same time, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has weakened, and external demand is average under the new export policy, so there are concerns about plate demand [4][68][69]. - In conclusion, the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, which may suppress steel price trends. However, as important meetings approach, domestic policy expectations are increasing, and combined with the upward logic of resource products, the macro - positive expectations support steel prices. The operating logic of the steel market will switch between weak reality and strong expectations, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the increase in off - season inventories and changes in the macro - narrative logic [5][13][119]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - January Steel Prices Fluctuated at a Low Level - In January, the steel market entered the traditional off - season. Steel demand weakened seasonally, while supply remained stable. Industrial contradictions accumulated, and steel prices were under pressure. However, since October last year, the prices of related resource products have continued to rise strongly, boosting the sentiment in the commodity market and driving up the low - valued black varieties. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel futures and spot prices continued to fluctuate at a low level, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range [11]. - As of January 30, the futures prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3128 yuan/ton and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, up 6 yuan and 18 yuan from the end - of - last - month values. The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) in Shanghai were 3250 yuan/ton and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, down 50 yuan and 0 yuan from the end - of - last - month values [11]. - In January, the relevant price differences in the steel market operation were different from previous years. The basis weakened, the futures price curves of rebar and hot - rolled coil still showed a contango pattern but with a lower premium than in previous years. The strength of varieties changed, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was weak and stable, the difference between hot - rolled and cold - rolled plates continued to shrink, and the north - south spread of building materials showed a downward trend [12]. 3.2 Off - Season Steel Inventories Accumulated as Expected - As of the week of January 30, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 12.7851 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 463,600 tons and an increase of 3.76%. The inventory level was slightly higher than that of the same lunar period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4616 million tons and an increase of 12.91% [20]. - Construction steel inventories continued to accumulate, while plate inventories slightly decreased, but both were higher than those of the same lunar period last year. As of the week of January 30, the inventory of construction steel was 5.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 647,600 tons and an increase of 12.82%. The total plate inventory was 7.0856 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 184,000 tons and a decrease of 2.53% [26]. - In terms of inventory links, both steel social inventory and factory inventory increased. As of the week of January 30, the steel social inventory was 8.9073 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 399,500 tons and an increase of 4.70%. The factory inventory was 3.8778 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,100 tons and an increase of 1.68% [27]. - The rebar inventory inflection point has appeared, and the increase is relatively large. As of the week of January 30, the total rebar inventory was 4.7553 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 535,000 tons and an increase of 12.68%. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level in the same period, and the pressure relief was limited [33][40]. 3.3 Steel Supply Remained Stable - The steel supply continued to shrink at the end of the year due to poor profitability of steel mills. In December, the national crude steel output was 68.1774 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.298 million tons and a decrease of 5.57%. At the beginning of the new year, steel mills began to resume production, and the output data of the China Iron and Steel Association rebounded in mid - January [47]. - High - frequency data also showed that steel mills began to resume production, but the overall increase was not large, and the steel supply remained stable, with differences among varieties. As of the week of January 30, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills were 79.00% and 85.47% respectively, slightly higher than the same period last year [53]. - The profitability of steel mills changed little in the off - season. As of the week of January 30, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 sample steel mills was 39.39%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% but still at a relatively low level [54]. - In terms of varieties, the production of construction steel mills was active, and the rebar output continued to rise, increasing supply pressure. The production of plate steel mills was stable, and the hot - rolled coil output remained at a high level, with high inventory and large supply pressure [60][63]. 3.4 Steel Demand Showed Seasonal Weakness 3.4.1 High - Frequency Indicators Declined Seasonally - In the off - season, steel demand weakened, and high - frequency indicators declined seasonally, with differences among varieties. As of the week of January 30, the weekly apparent demand of the five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 392,800 tons. In January, the total steel demand was 34.7449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3197 million tons and a decrease of 3.66% [68]. - Construction steel demand showed obvious seasonal weakness, while plate demand remained stable at a high level. In January, the cumulative demand for construction steel was 10.9401 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3262 million tons and a decrease of 10.81%. The plate demand was 23.8048 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons [68]. - The rebar demand declined seasonally, and the downstream industries did not improve, so the weak demand pattern would continue. As of the week of January 30, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 176,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 240,400 tons. The hot - rolled coil demand remained stable, but there were concerns about the future due to unresolved downstream contradictions [73][80]. 3.4.2 Steel Exports Changed - In December 2025, China's steel exports reached a new monthly high, with an export volume of 11.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. The annual cumulative export volume was 119.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The increase in December was partly due to the "rush - to - export" effect caused by the uncertainty of the new steel export license policy in 2026 [89]. - The performance of major steel export varieties was further differentiated. Plate exports were generally strong, and long - products became the core driving force for export growth in December. The export destinations were also adjusted, with some markets showing growth and some showing decline [90][91]. - With the gradual disappearance of the "rush - to - export" effect at the end of the year, combined with weak external demand and the policy adaptation period of enterprises, it is expected that China's steel exports will face downward pressure in the first two months of 2026 [93]. 3.4.3 The Domestic Economic Growth Target was Achieved - In December, the economic data declined, but the annual economic growth target was achieved as scheduled. The annual GDP growth rate was 5%. In December, industrial performance slightly exceeded expectations, social retail sales remained weak, and fixed - asset investment continued to be weak [100]. - The real - estate market was sluggish. In 2025, the national commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the real - estate development investment decreased by 17.20% year - on - year. The funds available to real - estate enterprises did not improve, and the decline in funds in place continued to widen [102][104][105]. - Infrastructure investment continued to decline. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of narrow - sense infrastructure (excluding electricity) and broad - sense infrastructure turned negative for the first time. In the future, infrastructure investment is expected to gradually stabilize and recover at a low level [110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.48%, accompanied by increased trading volume and decreased open interest. Currently, rebar supply is stable while demand is weak, and the fundamentals remain weak. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, but the cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.30%, also with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand. Attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore rose first and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded. However, with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided, and the demand for iron ore is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **National general public budget revenue**: In 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% decrease compared to 2024. Tax revenue increased by 0.8%, showing a steady recovery trend throughout the year, reflecting the stable and progressive development of the Chinese economy. Non - tax revenue decreased by 11.3%, mainly because the one - time arrangement of special income remittance by central units in 2024 raised the base [7]. - **Transportation fixed - asset investment**: In 2025, China's transportation fixed - asset investment continued to operate at a high level, with an expected investment of over 3.6 trillion yuan. Specifically, railway investment was 901.5 billion yuan, highway and waterway investment exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, and civil aviation investment was 120 billion yuan [8]. - **Vietnamese anti - dumping measures on Chinese H - beams**: Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that the anti - dumping duties on H - beams originating from China will expire on September 6, 2027. Interested parties should submit an application for anti - dumping sunset review investigation before February 27, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin, as well as the national average prices, are provided. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,317 yuan, unchanged. The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai (4.75mm) was 3,270 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the national average price was 3,300 yuan, down 1 yuan [10]. - **Iron ore**: The prices of PB powder (at Shandong ports), Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indicators such as freight rates, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indices are presented. For instance, the price of PB powder was 789 yuan, down 9 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,128 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, an increase of 191,871 lots, and the open interest was 1,734,110 lots, a decrease of 51,270 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,288 yuan, with a decline of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, an increase of 89,353 lots, and the open interest was 1,529,652 lots, a decrease of 17,466 lots [14]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.06%. The trading volume was 278,296 lots, a decrease of 29,418 lots, and the open interest was 541,228 lots, a decrease of 14,164 lots [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 to 2026 [16][17][19]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, including their seasonal changes and环比 changes [24][25][28]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making ratio of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills from 2022 to 2026 [32][34][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, and the inventory increase has expanded. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly by 0.28 tons. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the shutdown of short - process steel mills, the supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues to weaken, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions have decreased. The weak demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, which drags down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, but the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the steel price oscillates and stabilizes under the dominant optimistic sentiment. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: There are changes in both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil, and the inventory reduction has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.80 tons, reaching a relatively high level again, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure has not subsided. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience, with a slight increase in weekly apparent demand, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products. However, attention should be paid to the potential contradiction accumulation, and the external demand for exports is average. The demand resilience needs to be tracked. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand, and attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions [40]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore runs smoothly. The daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week. The contradictions in the steel market in the off - season are accumulating, and steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will continue to be weak. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has continued to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have stabilized. According to the shipping schedule, the reduction in port arrivals is limited, and the domestic ore supply is stable, coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided. Thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to 16,360 yuan/ton, and the price at the close was slightly down 1.09% to 16,360 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 135 yuan/ton. Affected by the overall rise and fall of the energy - chemical sector, the Shanghai rubber futures closed lower under pressure, and it is expected that the rubber price may maintain a high - level shock trend in the future [5]. - On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, rising and then falling, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The highest price of the contract rose to 2,394 yuan/ton, and the lowest price dropped to 2,302 yuan/ton. The price at the close was slightly down 0.64% to 2,320 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 24 yuan/ton. With the emergence of differences between long and short positions, the methanol futures may maintain a high - level shock trend [5]. - On Friday, the 2603 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly rising. The highest price of the contract rose to 499.6 yuan/barrel, and the lowest price dropped to 465.8 yuan/barrel. The price at the close was slightly up 0.81% to 470.8 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East intensifies again, the crude oil premium rebounds, and the short - term oil price maintains a pattern of shock and strength [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [7]. - As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. During the period, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule was slightly increased, which supported the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises; the shipment of all - steel tires was dull, and some enterprises still had production control phenomena, dragging the capacity utilization rate to decline slightly [7]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to more than 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [8]. - In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, reaching 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8]. Methanol - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.03%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.45%, and a significant increase of 10.22% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly output of methanol in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.5%. At the same time, in terms of dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 7.24%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 83.37%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures disk profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 200 yuan/ton [9]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant increase of 229,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1 and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 36,000 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant increase of 8.628 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 278,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 515,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points [11]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts, an increase of 34.07%. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts, an increase of 95.12% [11]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,950 yuan/ton | - 350 yuan/ton | 16,360 yuan/ton | - 330 yuan/ton | - 410 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 32 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | + 32 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 450.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | 470.8 yuan/barrel | - 1.7 yuan/barrel | - 20.0 yuan/barrel | + 1.1 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][16][18][21][23][25]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30][32][34][36]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][39][41][43][45].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 核心观点 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 2 月 锰硅月报 产业逻辑主导，1 月锰硅期现价格震荡回落。 春节临近钢厂如期补库，厂内库存迎来回升，但并未缓解锰硅生产 企业库存压力，其库存水平依然居高不下，且多集中在主产区，不排除 后续厂内库存转换成仓单，继而承压锰硅期价走势，关注库存整体变化 情况。 当前锰硅市场厂内库存高企，企业亏损收窄后，产量收缩态势难以 为继，叠加新增产能持续投放，供应压力并未消退，后续仍将对锰硅价 格上行形成显著抑制。 产业矛盾累积，锰硅低位震荡 新年伊 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂大跌 摘要 今日碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价报 148200 元/吨，盘中触及跌停 板，为近期最大单日跌幅。 | 锂电产业链相关价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 与前一 | 与前一周价 | | 指标 | | 单位 | 最新价格 | 日价格 | 格对比 | | | | | | 对比 | | | 期货 | 主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | ...