◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 10 月 14 日） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 宽幅震荡 | 短期资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均低开，全天震荡整理，小幅收跌。沪深京三市全天成交额 23742 亿元，较上 日缩量 1599 亿元。消息面，上周 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 供需格局偏弱，钢价承压运行 | 观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均有所走弱，供应持续收缩并降至相对低位，但库存偏高，且旺季减产动能不 强，利好效应有限。与此同时，假期因素扰动下需求表现疲弱，而下游 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-10-14 品种晨会纪要 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱运行 | 利空情绪消化，原油震荡偏弱 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏弱 | 中期 偏弱 | 日内 偏弱 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡偏弱 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着美国总统特朗普主动释放缓和信号，宏观面偏空情绪得到减弱。不过目前原油市场 宏观因子和产业因子依然维持偏弱格局。8 个 OPEC+产油国决定 11 月维持增产措施，增产原 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：近期国际金价持续攀升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly with a volatile and weak trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of this Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract continued the volatile and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.80% to 14,870 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend on Tuesday [5] - **Core Logic**: Although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened as US President Trump actively released a signal to ease the situation, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market still remain weak [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: On the night session of this Monday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract declined under pressure, with the futures price slightly down 0.92% to 10,800 yuan/ton [7] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract may maintain a volatile and weak trend on Tuesday [7] - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, although the macro - bearish sentiment has weakened, the macro and industrial factors in the rubber market still remain weak [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The price of thermal coal may maintain a range - bound trading after the holiday, as the supply improves, demand declines, and the fundamentals weaken marginally [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Supply - Anti - involution capacity verification's impact was mostly released in September. In October, coal mine production in major producing areas gradually resumed, and imported coal had good cost - effectiveness, leading to a stable and increasing overall supply of thermal coal [4]. Demand - During the National Day, temperatures in some coastal areas remained above 30°C, supporting residential electricity consumption. However, with the improvement of hydropower and wind power output, thermal power demand showed seasonal weakness [4]. Inventory - As of October 9, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.744 million tons, a significant weekly increase of 1.959 million tons and 1.121 million tons higher than the same period last year. After the peak summer season and with the improvement of new energy output, the domestic thermal coal supply - demand pattern weakened, and ports entered the inventory accumulation cycle [4].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 14 日） 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：受到中美贸易摩擦升级的影响，豆类期价内强外弱。国内大豆市场虽然在阿根廷大豆出口 免税期增加了部分阿根廷大豆采购，但 12-1 月船期的尚有采购缺口未完成，远期大豆供应收紧预期 升温，继续从原料端支撑期货 2601 合约期价，短期维持震荡偏强运行。 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 10 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端有所变化，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石刚需表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但钢市矛盾在累 积，利好效应将趋弱。与此同时，国内港口矿石到货刷新年内新高，而矿商发运高位小幅回落，高矿 价下海外矿石供应积极，且节后内矿供应也在恢复，供应压力不断增加。目前来看，矿石需求表现尚 可，叠加运输成本抬升扰动，利多因素支撑矿价高位运行，但矿石供应偏高，而需求韧性趋弱，基本 面预期走弱，高估值矿价上行驱动受限，预计走势维持高位震荡运行态势，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求表现尚可，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Overall, in the short term, the upward momentum and downward space of Treasury bond futures are both limited, and they will mainly conduct bottom oscillation consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed slightly up. On the news front, Trump's sudden tariff threat last Friday led to a rapid decline in the risk preference of the capital market and an increase in risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and there is a need for a relatively loose monetary environment in the future. Policy easing expectations still exist, which strongly supports Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, domestic economic data shows strong resilience, and the necessity of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is insufficient. The implied interest rate cut expectation between the current market interest rate and the policy rate is weak, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also insufficient [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 10 月 14 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/10/13 | -87.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/10/10 | -96.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/10/09 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/30 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/29 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/10/13 2025/10/10 2025/10/09 2025/09/30 2 ...