投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 供应扰动仍存，焦煤震荡调整 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦炭震荡运行 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：钢联资讯显示，长治沁源前期受安监停产的煤矿陆续复产，焦煤供应担忧再现，驱动 期货回调。上周，我们提示了安全月结束后，焦煤产量恢复的利空风险。当前供应端是市场博 弈的焦点之一，后续也 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In June, the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs in China all rebounded, indicating that the overall economic prosperity level remained in the expansion zone [2][17]. - The central bank has been precisely regulating the mid - year capital market, injecting sufficient liquidity. However, the capital market in July may be affected by fiscal factors [16]. - The bond market in China is experiencing a complex situation. The current bond market has high congestion, but the fundamentals and capital still support it, though the room for growth is limited [31]. - The A - share market rose on Monday, while the Hong Kong stock market declined, and the Taiwan stock market suffered a "stock - exchange double - kill" [33][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1]. - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points [1][2][17]. - In May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.1%, 2.3%, and 7.9% respectively [1]. - In May 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In June, the three major PMI indexes in China rebounded, and the overall economic prosperity level remained in the expansion zone [2][17]. - From January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028, eligible overseas investors can get a 10% tax credit for direct investment in China [2][18]. - Trump criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates and said the US should pay an interest rate of 1% [3][21]. - On June 30, the Baltic Dry Index fell 2.10% to 1489 points, falling for four consecutive days [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - The central bank issued regulations on anti - money laundering and anti - terrorist financing for precious metals and gemstone institutions [5]. - On June 27, zinc, copper, lead, nickel, and tin inventories decreased, while aluminum inventory increased [6]. - Citi expects the gold price to fall to $2500 - 2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026 [7]. - As of June 30, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings decreased by 0.24% [7]. - Japan's aluminum price premium for July - September is set at $108 per ton, down 41% from the current quarter [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In June 2025, the steel industry PMI was 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, indicating continued pressure [9]. - Starting from July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties will continue to be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [9]. - As the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline approaches, Indonesia will relax or cancel import restrictions on ten categories of goods and raw materials [9]. - Japan plans to extract rare earth minerals from seabed deposits starting from January next year [10]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On July 1, domestic refined oil prices are expected to increase by about 230 yuan per ton [11]. - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August [11]. - The number of active oil drilling platforms in the US decreased by 6 to 432 last week [11]. - In May, Japan's crude oil imports increased by 13.9% year - on - year, while refined oil sales decreased [11]. - Morgan Stanley expects non - OPEC oil supply to grow strongly from 2025 to 2026, and the Brent crude oil price to fall to about $60 per barrel early next year [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Datagro estimates Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production at 1.691 billion tons and corn production at 1.269 billion tons [13]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1.382 million tons, up 4.7% year - on - year [14]. - US exporters sold 204,000 tons of bean cake and soybean meal [15]. - In 2025, the number of food products with price increases or planned price increases in Japan may exceed 20,000 [15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 30, the central bank conducted 3315 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1110 billion yuan [16]. - The central bank's precise regulation has ensured sufficient liquidity, but the capital market in July may be affected by fiscal factors [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - In June, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs all rebounded [17]. - The Politburo emphasized the role of decision - making and coordinating institutions [18]. - Overseas investors can get a 10% tax credit for eligible direct investment in China from 2025 to 2028 [18]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued $3.08 billion in QDII investment quotas [18]. - In the third quarter, 11 issues of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued [18]. - As of May, overseas institutions' bond holdings in China were 4.4 trillion yuan [19]. - On June 30, the "North - bound Swap Connect" product contract term was extended to 30 years [19]. - In the first half of 2025, the total bond market stock in China reached 188.11 trillion yuan [19]. - The issuance scale of green financial bonds in the inter - bank market has increased significantly this year [19]. - As of June 30, 387 science and technology innovation bonds were issued, with a scale exceeding 580 billion yuan [20][21]. - Trump criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates [21]. - The US Treasury Secretary said there is no reason to increase the issuance of long - term treasury bonds [21]. - Some bond - related events such as rating changes, redemption, and litigation occurred [22]. - Some overseas credit ratings were confirmed or maintained [22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market declined, with bond yields rising and futures prices falling [24]. - Some bonds in the exchange bond market rose or fell slightly [24]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.35% [25]. - Most money market interest rates rose [26]. - US bond yields fell, and European bond yields mostly rose [27][28]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 34 points, and the central parity rate rose 41 points [29]. - The US dollar index fell 0.50%, and non - US currencies mostly rose [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the bond market may have short - term profit - taking pressure but may rise in the medium - term [30]. - Huatai Fixed Income turns neutral and cautious on convertible bonds and suggests choosing relatively cheap varieties [31]. - Huatai Fixed Income believes the bond market is highly congested and has weak odds [31]. - CITIC Securities believes that new policy - based financial tools will support key areas [31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On July 1, 136 bonds will be listed, 86 bonds will be issued, 38 bonds will be paid, and 135 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [32]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market rose on Monday, with over 4000 stocks rising [33]. - The Hong Kong stock market declined, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.87% [34]. - The Taiwan stock market suffered a "stock - exchange double - kill" [34]. - The IPO applications of 5 companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board were accepted [34]. - The IPO of Kaiyuan Securities was terminated [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 43 new stocks were listed in Hong Kong, and the funds raised exceeded that of 2024 [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 163 public funds conducted 40,093 research visits to 1943 A - share listed companies [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 1493 A - share companies planned 1984 merger and acquisition plans, with 102 being major reorganizations [36]. - The Zheng Yutong family in Hong Kong received HK$88.2 billion in refinancing [36].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-01 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-07-01 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供需结构不佳，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：在地缘风险快速降温以后，甲醇期货溢价陆续回吐。随着国内甲醇产能持续释放，周度 产量和周度开工率显著回升，内部供应压力有增无减。叠加海外船货不断到港，外部供应预期逐渐 增大，港口迎来累库周期，华东和华 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理，全天小幅上涨。股市全市场成交额 15756 亿元，较上日缩量 475 亿元。消息面上，统计局公布了 6 月制造业 PMI 数据，为 49.7，上月为 49.5，其中新订单指数回升 至扩张区间，制造业 PMI 表现边际向好趋势。近期股市风险偏好回升，主要原因在于政策面托底需求 以及增量资金入市的预期不断升温，加上外部风险因素短期内趋于缓和，大金融与 AI 科技板块成为 市场主线。目前沪深两市成交金额达到 1.5 万亿元的量级，市场情绪偏向积极乐观。总的来说，短期 内股指震荡偏强为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡回调。消息面，统计局公布了 6 月 PMI 数据，其中制造业 PMI 为 49.7， 上月为 49.5，表现出向好趋势，并且新订单指数回升至扩张区间。制造业 PMI 边际向好意味着未来 降息的紧迫性有所下降，国债期货价格承压。另外，近期股市风险偏好回升较快，股债跷跷板效应增 强，国债的投资者偏好有所下降。不过目前内需复苏仍需要政策面托底需求端，未来仍需要偏宽松的 货币环境，国债期货的下方支撑力量较强。总的来说，短期内国债期货震荡整理为主。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | ...

策略参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 核心逻辑：目前豆粕交易逻辑并未改变，来自于原料大豆进口成本的变化，令豆粕期价跟随外盘美豆波动 节奏。昨夜美国农业部公布了备受瞩目的种植面积报告和库存报告。报告显示， 6 月 1 日美国大豆库存总 量高于市场预期，给近月美豆合约带来压力。实际大豆种植面积数据对远月美豆合约偏利多。受此影响， 国内远期豆类合约获得支撑，豆粕期价止跌回稳后，反弹行情持续。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局平稳，矿价延续震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来改善，淡季钢厂生产积极，矿石终端消耗维持高位，需求韧性表现尚可，给 予矿价强支撑。与此同时，港口到货和矿商发运均迎来回落，多因财年末冲量结束后外矿供应如期收 缩，但整体维持相对高位，关注后续降幅情况，相应的内矿生产恢复积极，已重回年内高位，矿石高 位趋稳 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 现实矛盾有限，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，建筑钢厂生产积极，周产量持续回升，供应压力有所增加。同时， 螺纹需求表现不佳，高频需求指标均偏弱运行，淡季需求特征明显，继续抑制钢价。目前来看，螺 纹钢供应压力回升，而需求表现不佳，供增需弱局面下基本面延续季节性弱势，钢价承压运行，相 对利好则是库存拐 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 市场情绪回暖，矿价偏强震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所改善，钢厂生产积极，矿石终端消耗持续回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿 价强支撑。不过，港口到货和矿商发运大幅回升，多因财年末冲量所致，但持续性存疑，而内矿供应 恢复积极，已然重回年内高位，整体矿石供应维持高位。综上，矿石需求韧性表现尚可，且市场情绪 有所 ...