Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, with a reference view of "wait - and - see" for both [1] - For gold, short - term and medium - term trends are strong, and the intraday trend is oscillating upward; for copper, the short - term trend is oscillating, and the medium - term and intraday trends are oscillating upward [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Situation**: Yesterday, the gold price rose and then fell. Shanghai gold remained above the 1000 - yuan mark, and New York gold was above the 4500 - dollar mark [3] - **Driving Factors**: The short - term upward push of the gold price comes from the monetary policies of the US and Japanese central banks. Since the Sino - US summit in late October, the gold price has been under pressure and oscillating at a high level. Currently, the macro - economic easing promotes the general rise of assets, pushing the gold price to break through. During the overseas Christmas and New Year holidays, the domestic market may be cautious, and the gold price may show a high - level oscillation [3] Copper - **Price Situation**: Yesterday, the copper prices in both domestic and foreign markets rose and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai copper once reached the 96,000 - yuan mark, and LME copper once exceeded 12,200 dollars, hitting a record high. Then, due to the approaching Christmas holiday, the copper price fell from the high level. Shanghai copper once dropped to the 94,000 - yuan mark, and LME copper dropped to 12,000 dollars and then stabilized and rebounded [5] - **Driving Factors**: The Christmas and New Year holidays lead to light trading in the overseas market. In China, there are year - end capital pressure and tax settlement issues, and downstream purchasing willingness is extremely weak. The current high copper price inhibits the real economy, and the widening spot discount indicates weak demand. The market is in a special stage of "low liquidity + high sensitivity", and Shanghai copper will continue to oscillate at a high level before the holiday. Short - term attention should be paid to the support at the 95,000 - yuan mark of Shanghai copper [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆期价小幅收涨，宏观利好被南美大豆产量上调预期抵消，多家机构近期纷纷上调巴西 大豆产量预估，市场对全球大豆供应宽松的担忧加剧；同时，美豆出口缺乏持续买盘提振，短期反弹 空间受限。国内现货价格承压回落。当前国内豆粕库存高企，贸易商在高库存压力下采取滚动补库策 略，饲料厂则多维持安全库存，按需采购，整体成交氛围清淡。短期豆粕延续弱势格局，关注后续南 美天气变化及国内油厂开机节奏对库存的影响。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The TL2603 variety is expected to experience short - and medium - term oscillations, with a weaker intraday trend, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation phase. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing [1]. - For financial futures in the stock index sector (including TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the long run, the monetary policy adheres to a moderately loose tone, and the environment for next year is expected to be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the urgency for monetary easing is not high, and Sino - US relations will be relatively stable before April next year, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. Overall, Treasury bond futures face both upward pressure and downward support, and are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | View Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillatory | Oscillatory | Weaker | Oscillatory consolidation | Low short - term probability of interest rate cuts, long - term expectations of monetary easing [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weaker - **Medium - term View**: Oscillatory - **Reference View**: Oscillatory consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures were in a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation yesterday. The long - term monetary policy adheres to a moderately loose tone, and the environment for next year is expected to be relatively loose. The current implied expectation of interest rate cuts in the Treasury bond yield is weak, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the urgency for monetary easing is not high, and Sino - US relations will be relatively stable before April next year, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. Overall, they are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties, including power coal, energy and chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on December 25, 2025, covering aspects such as basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads [1] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - Power coal basis data from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided, showing a continuous decline from - 90.4 yuan/ton on December 18 to - 120.4 yuan/ton on December 24. The inter - month spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0.0 [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - Basis data of fuel oil and crude oil/asphalt from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided, along with the ratio of crude oil to asphalt and the basis of INE crude oil [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are presented [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are given [11] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided [21] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, with a note that the main contracts of rebar are in January, May, and October [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot - rolled coil) from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are given [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - Domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided [30] (2) London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 24, 2025 are presented [35] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided [43] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented [43] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads (soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, corn - corn starch) from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are given [43] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 18 to December 24, 2025 are provided [54] - **Inter - month Spreads**: Inter - month spreads (next - month - current - month, next - quarter - current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented [54]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-25 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24885.00 8161.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | 202512 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指震荡分化，其中 IM 与 IC 大幅上涨，IF 与 IH 窄幅震荡。股市全市场成交额 18972 亿元，较上日成交额缩量 241 亿元 ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 观望情绪较浓，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面支撑不足，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙 ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 预期现实博弈，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 姓名：涂伟华 商品市场情绪偏暖，螺纹期价触底回升，但供需格局并未好转，螺纹产量小幅回升但依旧处于 年内低位，低供应未变，给予钢价支撑，但短流程钢厂利润改善，后续存回升预期。与此同时，螺 纹钢需求表现弱稳，高频需求指标虽环比增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，且下游行业也未好转，淡 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-25 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素主导，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素主导，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区步入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，同时胶 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall reference view of bullish operation. The core logic is that there are differences between bulls and bears, and methanol is oscillating and bullish [1]. - Affected by the increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the sharp correction of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures rebound is blocked and falls into a correction. Although the port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they are still at a high level. The downstream demand improvement is insufficient, and the olefin futures profit is weakening. With the weakening of the rebound momentum of domestic coal futures prices, the domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend on Wednesday night, with a slight increase in the futures price. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and stable trend on Thursday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For methanol 2605, the short - term (within one week) is oscillatory, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with a reference view of bullish operation [1]. Price Calculation and Fluctuation Criteria - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The end price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered bearish, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered bullish, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The bullish/bearish criteria are only for intraday views, and no distinction is made for short - term and medium - term views [3][4]. Price and Driving Logic - Affected by supply pressure, coal price correction, inventory, and demand factors, the methanol futures rebound is blocked and falls into a correction. After that, it maintained an oscillatory and stable trend on Wednesday night, and is expected to maintain this trend on Thursday [5].