Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Today, Shanghai copper's main contract price approached the 100,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The commodity market sentiment weakened, and the non - ferrous sector declined across the board. The traditional downstream is resistant to high copper prices. It is expected that the purchasing demand may recover next week. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 RMB mark [5]. - Today, Shanghai aluminum's main contract price fell below the 24,000 RMB mark at the end of the session. The commodity market sentiment weakened, and the non - ferrous sector declined across the board. The downstream is cautious about aluminum prices above 24,000 RMB. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continues to rise, and the monthly spread continues to weaken. There is strong technical pressure, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 24,000 RMB mark [6]. - Today, the nickel price showed a downward trend, and the main contract price fell to the 140,000 RMB mark. The short - term macro - environment cooled, and non - ferrous metals declined across the board. The expectation of supply contraction in Indonesian mines continues to support the price, but the pattern of strong expectation and weak reality in the industry remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 140,000 RMB mark [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - On January 16, the raw material inventory of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 2.02% week - on - week, and the finished product inventory increased by 5.77% week - on - week. The downstream market is cautious, and the new order volume is still at a low level. The copper cable operating rate decreased by 0.59 percentage points to 55.99% week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [9]. Aluminum - On January 16, the total inventory of bauxite in 10 domestic ports decreased by 390,000 tons compared with the previous week [10]. Nickel - On January 16, the upstream quotation of high - nickel pig iron was maintained at 1050 - 1100 RMB/nickel point, and the downstream steel mills' procurement was cautious. The significant price increase does not match the actual demand, and there is little trading in the market [11]. 2. Related Charts Copper - The report provides charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][16]. Aluminum - The report provides charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report provides charts of nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 16 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 向上驱动不足，煤焦低位运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 1 月 16 日当周，样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量 合计 110.17 万吨，周环比下降 0.28 万吨；247 家钢厂日均铁水产量 228.01 万吨，周环比下降 1.49 万吨。整体来看，焦炭基本面无明显支 撑，原材料焦煤在上周受预期驱动低位反弹过后，本周重回偏弱运行，并 未给焦炭带来持续的成本支撑，在无政策干预的情况下，焦炭期货预计维 持低位震荡格局。 焦煤：截至 1 月 16 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 76.9 万 吨，周环比增 3.5 万吨（本期新增一个调研样本，数据增幅明显）；样本 独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 110.17 万吨，周环比下降 0.28 万吨。整体来看，焦煤维持供需两增局面，基本面无明显好转，且 冬储补库和春节煤矿停产预期已有所发酵，未来煤价上行动能或需依靠政 策驱动。在无政策干预的情况下，春节前煤价或受基本面压制而维持低位 运行。 （仅供参考，不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the context of the warming sentiment in the commodity market and the rising cost side, the price of manganese - silicon has recently shown a volatile upward trend. However, due to the lack of substantial improvement in its supply - demand pattern, the upward momentum of the price is limited, and the subsequent trend is likely to turn into a volatile one. Attention should be paid to the price and supply changes in the manganese ore segment [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Performance - Since December last year, the manganese - silicon futures price has shown a volatile upward trend. The price of the main contract once exceeded the 6,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5.6% from the low. The spot price also rose synchronously, with the increase range in the mainstream areas being 120 - 300 yuan/ton [2] Cost Factor - The recent continuous strengthening of the manganese - silicon price is driven by two factors: the warm sentiment in the overall commodity market and the significant upward movement of upstream costs. Since October last year, the prices of related resource products have continued to rise strongly. Against this backdrop, the price of manganese ore has also increased. Overseas mainstream manganese ore suppliers have raised their export quotes. The increase in the cost side has directly pushed up the production cost of manganese - silicon. It is expected that the iron ore price will remain firm, and the cost side's support for the manganese - silicon price will continue [3][4] Supply Situation - The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon has not improved substantially, as evidenced by the high inventory in enterprises and the slow de - stocking process. As of the week of January 9, the total inventory of domestic manganese - silicon enterprises was 382,500 tons, still at a historical high. The production loss of manganese - silicon enterprises has been narrowing, and the production enthusiasm has gradually stabilized. The new production capacity of the manganese - silicon industry has continued to be put into operation. In 2025, the average monthly production capacity of manganese - silicon was 1.9082 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.23%. In 2026, the to - be - invested production capacity of manganese - silicon is 3.0865 million tons. If this batch of production capacity is put into operation, the industry's over - supply situation will intensify [5][6] Demand Situation - Since 2026, the resumption of work and production in domestic steel mills has continued to advance, and the demand for manganese - silicon has improved marginally. As of the week of January 9, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 domestic steel mills have rebounded, and the production enthusiasm of short - process steel mills has also increased. Driven by this, the domestic steel output has rebounded from the low level, and the demand for manganese - silicon has also improved. However, the subsequent growth space of manganese - silicon demand is worrying due to limited profit - repair of steel mills and the traditional off - season in the steel market [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 支撑 | 供需矛盾累积，矿价高位调整 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，库存大幅增加，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗小幅回落，且钢厂盈利 状况改善有限，叠加淡季钢市矛盾累积，矿石需求表现偏弱，相对利好的则是节前钢厂有所补库。与 此同时，国内港口到货持续回升，而矿商发运小幅减量，继续位于相对高位，海外矿石供应相对积极 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for hot-rolled coils shows some resilience, and the fundamentals are operating smoothly. However, the supply is still at a high level, and there are concerns about demand. Once the demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and prices are likely to come under pressure. In the short term, the price trend will maintain a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 303.36 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.15 tons. The supply has shrunk again but is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is significantly higher than in previous years, resulting in large supply pressure and potential downward pressure on steel prices [2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.48%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.56 percentage points [2]. Demand - The apparent weekly demand for hot-rolled coils is 309.38 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.04 tons. The demand shows some resilience. The high output of downstream cold-rolled products provides support for the demand for hot-rolled coils, but there are concerns as contradictions in the cold-rolled market are accumulating and exports are average [2][3]. - The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 88.67 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.17 tons, but still at a high level [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 362.11 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6.02 tons, and the inventory reduction has expanded [2]. - The in-plant inventory is 76.53 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.79 tons [2]. - The social inventory is 285.58 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.23 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly with an oscillatory pattern in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weak trend intraday on January 16, 2026 [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: After Thailand and Cambodia declared a cease - fire, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas are in the off - season, reducing domestic supply pressure, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weak oscillatory pattern on Thursday night and are expected to continue this way on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Due to the tight supply of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some production cuts or shutdowns, reducing the supply expectation. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. Coupled with the oscillatory and strong pattern of crude oil futures, the cost support has been enhanced. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, synthetic rubber futures showed a high - level correction on Thursday night and are expected to maintain a weak oscillatory pattern on Friday [7]

3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期全面降息可能性下降 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。消息面，央行公布了 12 月新增信贷数据，居民部门新增信贷 表现仍偏弱，企业部门新增信贷有所改善；且央行决定下调再贷款、再贴现利率，引导金融机构加大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a significant increase in inventory, weak and stable steel mill production, and a decline in terminal ore consumption. This week, the average daily hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month, and the improvement in steel mill profitability is limited. Coupled with the accumulation of contradictions in the steel market during the off - season, ore demand will remain weak, although steel mills will replenish stocks before the festival. Meanwhile, port arrivals continue to increase, while miner shipments decline slightly. Both are at relatively high levels, overseas ore supply is relatively active, and domestic ore supply has recovered, so ore supply remains high. With a warm commodity sentiment and lingering positive factors, the ore price is operating in a high - level range. However, due to the high supply and weak and stable demand, the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong. The ore price shows a high - level oscillation pattern under the game of multiple and short factors. Be cautious of the trading logic switching to the industrial end, when the ore price is likely to be under pressure again. Pay attention to the stock - replenishing situation of steel mills [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 16,555.10, with a week - on - week increase of 279.84, a month - to - date increase of 584.21, and a year - on - year increase of 1,692.04 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,262.22, with a week - on - week increase of 272.63, a month - to - date increase of 315.68, and a year - on - year decrease of 381.90 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,920.40, with a week - on - week increase of 164.00, a month - to - date increase of 319.00, and a year - on - year increase of 781.90 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3,180.90, with a week - on - week decrease of 32.80, a month - to - date decrease of 496.22, and a year - on - year increase of 189.30 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1] Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 228.01, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.49, a month - to - date increase of 0.58, and a year - on - year increase of 0.14 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 319.89, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.38, a month - to - date decrease of 5.32, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 281.84, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.44, a month - to - date increase of 1.17, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.74 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 95.13, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.21, a month - to - date increase of 14.45, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly data analysis of rebar futures, covering the period up to January 16, 2026 [1] Core Viewpoint - Rebar demand has improved slightly, but the weak demand pattern remains unchanged due to the lack of improvement in downstream industries The supply is weakly stable, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with attention paid to the production situation of steel mills [11] Data Summary Supply - Weekly production is 190.30, with a week - on - week change of - 0.74, a month - on - month change of 2.08, and a year - on - year change of - 26.00 compared to the same period last year The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.48%, with a week - on - week change of - 0.56, a month - on - month change of 0.22, and a year - on - year change of - 0.07 [12] Demand - Apparent demand is 190.34, with a week - on - week increase of 15.38, a month - on - month decrease of - 10.10, and a year - on - year decrease of - 29.24 The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions is 9.11, with a week - on - week change of - 0.53, a month - on - month change of - 0.51, and a year - on - year change of - 1.79 [12] Inventory - Total inventory is 438.07, with a week - on - week change of - 0.04, a month - on - month change of 16.04, and a year - on - year change of 38.33 Factory inventory is 142.66, with a week - on - week change of - 5.27, a month - on - month change of 3.29, and a year - on - year change of 21.13 Social inventory is 295.41, with a week - on - week change of 5.23, a month - on - month change of 12.75, and a year - on - year change of 17.20 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA10 support level. The fundamental situation is weak, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season [2]. - Rebar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at low levels, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, short - term, medium - term trends are "volatile", and the intraday trend is "weakly volatile". The reference view is to pay attention to the MA10 support, with the core logic being the weak fundamental operation and the pressure on steel prices in the off - season [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of rebar have changed. The production of construction steel mills has stabilized, and rebar supply has slightly declined. However, the profit per ton of the product is acceptable, so the supply contraction is unlikely to continue. Meanwhile, rebar demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing month - on - month, but the high - frequency daily trading volume is sluggish. Both supply and demand are still at the low levels of the same period in recent years. Considering the unchanged situation in downstream industries, demand will continue to decline seasonally, dragging down steel prices. The overall fundamental situation continues the seasonal weakness, and steel prices in the off - season are under pressure [3].