投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 支撑 | 供需矛盾累积，矿价高位调整 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，库存大幅增加，钢厂生产弱稳，矿石终端消耗小幅回落，且钢厂盈利 状况改善有限，叠加淡季钢市矛盾累积，矿石需求表现偏弱，相对利好的则是节前钢厂有所补库。与 此同时，国内港口到货持续回升，而矿商发运小幅减量，继续位于相对高位，海外矿石供应相对积极 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for hot-rolled coils shows some resilience, and the fundamentals are operating smoothly. However, the supply is still at a high level, and there are concerns about demand. Once the demand weakens, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, and prices are likely to come under pressure. In the short term, the price trend will maintain a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 303.36 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.15 tons. The supply has shrunk again but is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is significantly higher than in previous years, resulting in large supply pressure and potential downward pressure on steel prices [2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.48%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.56 percentage points [2]. Demand - The apparent weekly demand for hot-rolled coils is 309.38 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.04 tons. The demand shows some resilience. The high output of downstream cold-rolled products provides support for the demand for hot-rolled coils, but there are concerns as contradictions in the cold-rolled market are accumulating and exports are average [2][3]. - The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 88.67 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.17 tons, but still at a high level [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 362.11 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6.02 tons, and the inventory reduction has expanded [2]. - The in-plant inventory is 76.53 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.79 tons [2]. - The social inventory is 285.58 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.23 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly with an oscillatory pattern in the short - term and medium - term, and show a weak trend intraday on January 16, 2026 [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: After Thailand and Cambodia declared a cease - fire, the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply due to geopolitical risks disappeared, weakening the bullish drive. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan rubber - producing areas are in the off - season, reducing domestic supply pressure, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, Shanghai rubber futures maintained a weak oscillatory pattern on Thursday night and are expected to continue this way on Friday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Due to the tight supply of northern goods and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen significantly. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some production cuts or shutdowns, reducing the supply expectation. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the December heavy - truck sales data are better than expected. Coupled with the oscillatory and strong pattern of crude oil futures, the cost support has been enhanced. With the weakening of the rally in the energy and chemical sector, synthetic rubber futures showed a high - level correction on Thursday night and are expected to maintain a weak oscillatory pattern on Friday [7]

3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期全面降息可能性下降 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。消息面，央行公布了 12 月新增信贷数据，居民部门新增信贷 表现仍偏弱，企业部门新增信贷有所改善；且央行决定下调再贷款、再贴现利率，引导金融机构加大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a significant increase in inventory, weak and stable steel mill production, and a decline in terminal ore consumption. This week, the average daily hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month, and the improvement in steel mill profitability is limited. Coupled with the accumulation of contradictions in the steel market during the off - season, ore demand will remain weak, although steel mills will replenish stocks before the festival. Meanwhile, port arrivals continue to increase, while miner shipments decline slightly. Both are at relatively high levels, overseas ore supply is relatively active, and domestic ore supply has recovered, so ore supply remains high. With a warm commodity sentiment and lingering positive factors, the ore price is operating in a high - level range. However, due to the high supply and weak and stable demand, the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong. The ore price shows a high - level oscillation pattern under the game of multiple and short factors. Be cautious of the trading logic switching to the industrial end, when the ore price is likely to be under pressure again. Pay attention to the stock - replenishing situation of steel mills [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 16,555.10, with a week - on - week increase of 279.84, a month - to - date increase of 584.21, and a year - on - year increase of 1,692.04 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,262.22, with a week - on - week increase of 272.63, a month - to - date increase of 315.68, and a year - on - year decrease of 381.90 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,920.40, with a week - on - week increase of 164.00, a month - to - date increase of 319.00, and a year - on - year increase of 781.90 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3,180.90, with a week - on - week decrease of 32.80, a month - to - date decrease of 496.22, and a year - on - year increase of 189.30 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1] Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 228.01, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.49, a month - to - date increase of 0.58, and a year - on - year increase of 0.14 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 319.89, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.38, a month - to - date decrease of 5.32, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 281.84, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.44, a month - to - date increase of 1.17, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.74 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 95.13, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.21, a month - to - date increase of 14.45, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly data analysis of rebar futures, covering the period up to January 16, 2026 [1] Core Viewpoint - Rebar demand has improved slightly, but the weak demand pattern remains unchanged due to the lack of improvement in downstream industries The supply is weakly stable, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, and is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with attention paid to the production situation of steel mills [11] Data Summary Supply - Weekly production is 190.30, with a week - on - week change of - 0.74, a month - on - month change of 2.08, and a year - on - year change of - 26.00 compared to the same period last year The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.48%, with a week - on - week change of - 0.56, a month - on - month change of 0.22, and a year - on - year change of - 0.07 [12] Demand - Apparent demand is 190.34, with a week - on - week increase of 15.38, a month - on - month decrease of - 10.10, and a year - on - year decrease of - 29.24 The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions is 9.11, with a week - on - week change of - 0.53, a month - on - month change of - 0.51, and a year - on - year change of - 1.79 [12] Inventory - Total inventory is 438.07, with a week - on - week change of - 0.04, a month - on - month change of 16.04, and a year - on - year change of 38.33 Factory inventory is 142.66, with a week - on - week change of - 5.27, a month - on - month change of 3.29, and a year - on - year change of 21.13 Social inventory is 295.41, with a week - on - week change of 5.23, a month - on - month change of 12.75, and a year - on - year change of 17.20 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the MA10 support level. The fundamental situation is weak, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season [2]. - Rebar prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at low levels, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, short - term, medium - term trends are "volatile", and the intraday trend is "weakly volatile". The reference view is to pay attention to the MA10 support, with the core logic being the weak fundamental operation and the pressure on steel prices in the off - season [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of rebar have changed. The production of construction steel mills has stabilized, and rebar supply has slightly declined. However, the profit per ton of the product is acceptable, so the supply contraction is unlikely to continue. Meanwhile, rebar demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing month - on - month, but the high - frequency daily trading volume is sluggish. Both supply and demand are still at the low levels of the same period in recent years. Considering the unchanged situation in downstream industries, demand will continue to decline seasonally, dragging down steel prices. The overall fundamental situation continues the seasonal weakness, and steel prices in the off - season are under pressure [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term shocks and a medium - term strong trend, and an intraday slightly strong trend. Copper is also expected to be strong in the long - term, with short - term shocks, a medium - term strong trend, and an intraday slightly weak trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, New York gold oscillated narrowly around $4,600, and Shanghai gold oscillated above 1,030 yuan. Since this week, New York silver has risen by about 14%, while New York gold has only risen by about 2%, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly to around 50, a 14 - year low [3]. - **Core Logic**: The significant decline in the gold - silver ratio will likely prompt arbitrage funds to flow into gold. The short - term sentiment in the precious metal market is high, especially in the silver market, which can be used as a wind vane. The short - term capital liquidation intention is strong, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the $4,600 mark of New York gold [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the copper price rebounded after reaching the bottom, and the trading volume decreased slightly. Since this week, with the continuous rise in silver prices, the rise in copper prices has slowed down significantly, and the trading volume of Shanghai copper has hovered around 700,000 contracts [4]. - **Core Logic**: The cooling of the macro - atmosphere and the decline in silver prices have led to a decline in copper prices, and the short - term long - position liquidation intention is strong. At the industrial level, after the expiration of the 01 contract, the near - month spread has weakened significantly, electrolytic copper has continued to accumulate inventory, and the downstream industry is watching [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 弱势运行 | 地缘风险弱化，原油震荡走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛墨西哥或成为美国下一个夺取和 打击的目标。同时美国威胁或对伊朗展开新一轮军事打击，中东地缘风险再度加剧。随着美国总统 特朗普释放可能暂缓打击伊朗的信号， ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The supply and demand pattern of thermal coal has improved, and the expected shutdown of coal mines during the Spring Festival provides supply support, leading to a small upward trend in thermal coal prices after a decline [4] Group 3 Main varieties price market driving logic - Commodity futures black sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday view**: Not provided - **Medium - term view**: Oscillation - **Core logic**: In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. At the beginning of the new year, coal mines that had stopped production to meet annual targets resumed production, but the improvement in domestic thermal coal production was limited. With the Spring Festival approaching, the expectation of a phased contraction in thermal coal supply has increased. Recently, the drop in domestic temperatures has accelerated the improvement in coal demand in coastal cities, which is an important factor supporting the port coal market. As of January 8th, the total coal inventory at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.614 million tons, and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year [4]