Report Overview - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 - Report Author: Tu Weihua 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price weakened and declined, with a daily decline of 1.58%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Although the supply - demand pattern of rebar improved before the holiday, downstream performance remained sluggish, demand concerns persisted, the fundamental improvement was questionable, and the upward driving force was weak. With the fermentation of concerns about production cut negative feedback, steel prices were under pressure again and were seeking a bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the change in position on the futures market [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.22%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. In the current supply - demand weakness situation, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils were weak, the high - supply pressure remained, and prices were under pressure. With the fermentation of concerns about production cut negative feedback, it was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly before the holiday. Attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fell from a high level, with a daily decline of 1.74%, trading volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore was okay, supporting the ore price, but supply was rising, demand benefits were weakening, the supply - demand pattern was weakening, and the over - valued ore price was under pressure again. Coupled with concerns about production cut negative feedback, the ore price was expected to be under pressure again and fall from a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Trump announced that the US will impose a new round of high - tariffs on multiple imported products from October 1, including a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [6]. - More than twenty regions have issued concentrated local subsidies for automobiles. Since entering the "Golden September", relevant local policies on a new round of automobile subsidies have been intensively issued, and the subsidy policies have significantly stimulated the automobile market. As of September 10, the number of applications for automobile trade - ins this year has reached 8.3 million [7]. - 208 steel enterprises have completed the public announcement of ultra - low emission transformation. On September 25, Xining Special Steel Co., Ltd. announced its progress in ultra - low emission transformation and evaluation and monitoring, and so far, 208 steel enterprises have made announcements on the CISA website [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Product | Location | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) | Shanghai | 3,230 | - 30 | | | Tianjin | 3,220 | - 10 | | | National Average | 3,292 | - 14 | | Hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) | Shanghai | 3,390 | - 10 | | | Tianjin | 3,300 | - 30 | | | National Average | 3,427 | - 12 | | Tangshan billet (Q235) | - | 3,030 | 0 | | Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) | - | 2,160 | 0 | | 61.5% PB powder (Shandong port) | - | 783 | - 13 | | Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) | - | 802 | 4 | | Ocean freight (Australia) | - | 10.90 | 0.08 | | Ocean freight (Brazil) | - | 25.83 | 0.62 | | SGX swap (current month) | - | 105.60 | - 0.10 | | Platts Index (CFR, 62%) | - | 106.10 | - 0.40 | | Coil - rebar price difference | - | 160 | 2 | | Rebar - scrap price difference | - | 1,070 | - 30 | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Product | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,114 | - 1.58 | 3,171 | 3,113 | 1,388,756 | 505,741 | 1,976,545 | 106,096 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,313 | - 1.22 | 3,359 | 3,312 | 612,844 | 275,416 | 1,391,208 | 21,492 | | Iron ore | - | 790.0 | - 1.74 | 806.0 | 788.0 | 326,907 | 135,724 | 508,929 | - 20,811 | [12] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [15][17]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [20][24][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Included charts of 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates, 247 steel mills' profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit - loss situation [29][31][33]. 3.5后市研判 - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern continued to improve marginally. Rebar production increased slightly week - on - week, but due to poor profitability, the short - term production increase momentum was weak, and supply was stable at a low level. However, there was a pressure of inventory increase during the holiday, and the positive effect was limited. Demand continued to improve, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 10.41 tons week - on - week, but high - frequency trading was weak, and both supply and demand were at low levels in recent years. The improvement space in the peak season was questionable. Before the holiday, although the supply - demand pattern improved, downstream performance was sluggish, demand concerns remained, the fundamental improvement was questionable, the upward driving force was weak, and steel prices were under pressure again and seeking a bottom weakly [37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern continued to be weak, and inventory continued to increase. Hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.30 tons week - on - week, and inventory was high, so the supply pressure was still large. Demand resilience weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 0.14 tons week - on - week, and high - frequency trading declined. Although the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products increased significantly, industrial contradictions persisted, which was likely to drag down hot - rolled coil demand. It was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly before the holiday [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern weakened, and inventory increased significantly. Steel mill production was stable, and ore terminal consumption was high. This week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills increased week - on - week, and demand was okay, supporting the ore price. However, the restocking was coming to an end, and steel market contradictions were accumulating, so the positive effect was expected to weaken. At the same time, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports increased significantly, overseas miners' shipments were still at a high level, and domestic ore supply recovered. The high - valued ore price was under pressure again and was expected to fall from a high level [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - All stock indices oscillated and pulled back on the day, with the total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reaching 2166.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 225.7 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - Trump's recent announcement of a new round of high - tariffs on various imported products has led to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment [3]. - As the valuation has risen significantly, especially when the index rebounded near the previous high, the profit - taking demand of profitable funds has increased. Additionally, with the approaching National Day holiday, investors' desire to secure profits has grown [3]. - In the medium - to - long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the long - term net inflow trend of funds constitute the medium - to - long - term driving force for the upward movement of stock indices [3]. - In the future, the focus will be on the game between the rhythm of profit - taking by funds and the fermentation of policy expectations. In general, due to the index approaching the previous high and the approaching holiday, the stock index is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [3]. - Currently, the implied volatility of options has declined. Considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On September 26, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.32% to close at 3.077; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.94% to close at 4.651; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.91% to close at 4.800; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.95% to close at 4550.05; the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.45% to close at 7397.59; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 1.41% to close at 7.336; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 1.21% to close at 2.934; the ChiNext ETF fell 2.55% to close at 3.129; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 1.84% to close at 3.529; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.40% to close at 2941.02; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 1.55% to close at 1.52; and the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 1.32% to close at 1.49 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and open - interest PCR of various options changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 91.14 (85.45 the previous day), and the open - interest PCR was 78.68 (77.23 the previous day) [6]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in October 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were provided. For instance, the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in October 2025 was 14.64%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 15.75% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [9][11][13][17]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [20][22][24][30]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [33][34]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [36][38][40][42][46]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [49][51][53][55][59]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [62][64][65][71]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [75][79][80][82][87]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Charts cover the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [90][92][93][98]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [103][105][107][113]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [116][118][120][126]. - **Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Charts cover the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [129][131][133]. - **E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF Options**: Charts involve the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, open - interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of various tenors [137][139][141][147].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. With the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term positive factors are exhausted. The rubber market has shifted to a weak supply - demand structure, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the future [6]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening in oscillation, and slightly closing lower. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to maintain a weak oscillating trend in the future [6]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, strengthening in oscillation, and slightly rising. Due to the continuous attacks on Russian oil production facilities by Ukraine and the US President's statement on imposing strong tariff sanctions on Russia, the geopolitical risks have increased. It is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the future [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.76% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 5.07%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.04%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [10]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The China Logistics Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. In August 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. The cumulative sales in the first 8 months of 2025 reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [11]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8132 million tons, a significant week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a slight decrease of 30,200 tons compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58 percentage points. The domestic methanol - to - olefin futures profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [12]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a significant week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and a significant increase of 487,200 tons compared with the same period last year. The inland methanol inventory was 340,500 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 94,200 tons compared with the same period last year [13][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 418, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [15]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [15]. - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 98,709 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a significant decrease of 23,354 contracts or 19.13% compared with the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 220,410 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and a 8.94% increase compared with the August average. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [16]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,470 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | - 770 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,270 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,355 yuan/ton | - 1 yuan/ton | - 85 yuan/ton | +1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 454.6 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 491.3 yuan/barrel | +0.7 yuan/barrel | - 36.7 yuan/barrel | - 0.7 yuan/barrel | [18] 3. Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [19][21][27] - Methanol - related charts include methanol basis, methanol 1 - 5 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [35][37][42] - Crude oil - related charts include crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [49][51][57]

黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 26 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 节前观望情绪渐浓，煤焦维持区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 核心观点 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 黑色金属 | 日报 一 产业资讯 （1）特朗普宣布：对进口重型卡车加征 25%关税 当地时间 9 月 25 日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，自 10 月 1 日起， 将对所有进口重型卡车加征 25%关税。特朗普还表示，此举主要是出于"国家安 全"的考虑。 （2）8 月，俄罗斯煤炭生产总 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 有人乐意"闲" ，有人享受"充电" 宝城期货 陈栋 秋意渐浓，梧桐叶落，又是一年国庆假期到来。城市渐渐安静下来，写字楼的灯一盏盏熄灭，人们收 拾行囊，奔赴山海。而期货交易者，这群在数字洪流中搏击的旅人，却在节日前夕，多了一份静默的守候。 交易所的假期安排早已贴出：10 月 1 日（星期三）至 10 月 8 日（星期三）休市，10 月 9 日（星期四） 起照常开市。9 月 30 日（星期二）晚上不进行夜盘交易。10 月 9 日（星期四）所有合约集合竞价时间为 上午 8:55 至 9:00。可以想见，9 月 30 日下午，随着分时线的止步，屏幕归于平静。有人长舒一口气，摘 下耳机，望着 K 线图嘴角微扬；有人默默关闭交易软件，泡上一杯浓茶，任茶烟袅袅，思绪却仍停留在那 根均线上。 假期，对期货交易者而言，从不是简单的"休息"二字可以概括的。它更像是一次周期性的撤离与回归， 一次在喧嚣与寂静之间的转换。节前的最后几个交易日，市场波动往往加大。交易所的保证金可能上调， 风险提示函也可能发布，仿佛在提醒大家：操作要更谨慎。 于是，有些期货交易者选择在假期前平仓。这不仅是为了规避长假期间国际市场的不确 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on Rebar 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the peak season is lackluster, and steel prices will continue to oscillate [2]. - Before the holiday, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved, but the downstream performance remains sluggish, demand concerns persist, and the improvement in fundamentals is questionable. The upward driving force for steel prices is weak, and the relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the peak season lacks luster and steel prices continue to oscillate. Specific rules for calculating price changes and defining trends are also provided [2]. 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has marginally improved. Weekly rebar production has increased slightly month - on - month and remains at a low level for the year, but inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is not strong. High - frequency demand indicators for rebar have rebounded, and demand has improved before the holiday, but it is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the peak season is lackluster. In general, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved before the holiday, but the downstream performance is still sluggish, demand concerns remain, the improvement in fundamentals is questionable, the upward driving force for steel prices is weak, and the relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 短期多头了结意愿上升，中长线 上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：本周纽约金触及 38 ...

3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏弱 | 宽幅震荡 | 短期资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市全天成交额 23918 亿元，较上日放量 446 亿元。目 前股市的主要交易逻辑主要看资金止盈 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that the short - term price of domestic thermal coal will maintain a relatively strong trend. This is because the supply of domestic thermal coal has gradually stabilized after the "anti - involution" capacity verification, and the supply - side pressure has been significantly alleviated compared to the previous two years. Additionally, the fundamental outlook for thermal coal before the National Day is favorable [4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - As of September 17, 2025, the quoted price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 689 yuan/ton, showing a week - on - week increase [4]. Viewpoint on Thermal Coal - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: The reference view for thermal coal is "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply of domestic thermal coal has become stable after the capacity verification, and the supply - side pressure has eased. Coupled with the good fundamental expectations before the National Day, the short - term coal price is expected to be strong [4].

2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 供需格局走弱，高估值矿价承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局走弱，库存迎来显著累库，钢厂生产趋稳，终端消耗高位回升，需求表现尚可， 给予矿价支撑，但节前补库趋于尾声，而钢市矛盾不断累积，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到 货如期回升，而矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应相对偏高，叠加内矿供应恢复，供应压力在增加。 目前来 ...