投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 节前观望情绪较浓，焦煤期货震 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 荡运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 现货首轮提涨，焦炭小幅上行 | 核心逻辑：甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1280.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 5.79%。供需方面，上周全 国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 76.1 万吨，环比增 3.3 万吨，较去年同期产量偏低 3.3 万吨。 进口端 288 口岸上周蒙煤通关车数重回年内高位，日通关车数在 1300~1400 车左右。需求端， 样本焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量合计 113.37 万吨，周环比基本持平。整体来看，焦煤现实基本 面支撑有限，但在反内卷题 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2512 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the financial futures stock index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the Treasury bond futures were in narrow - range oscillation yesterday. At the current relatively low level, the short - term upward momentum and downward space are both limited. The short - term possibility of policy interest rate cuts is low, reducing the upward momentum, while the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand remains, and the Fed's rate cut reduces RMB exchange - rate pressure, increasing the possibility of a future loose monetary policy, which strongly supports the Treasury bond futures [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is the co - existence of long - and medium - term interest rate cut expectations and low short - term comprehensive interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The futures were in narrow - range oscillation yesterday. At the current low level, short - term upward and downward movements are restricted. Short - term policy interest rate cuts are unlikely, weakening upward momentum, while domestic demand issues and the Fed's rate cut increase the chance of future loose monetary policy, supporting the futures [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of crude oil futures is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile, and an intraday bias towards a volatile and strong trend [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2511 is volatile [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2511 is volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2511 is volatile and strong, and it is expected to run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - Geopolitical factors support the price of crude oil. Recently, Ukraine has continuously attacked Russian oil production facilities, Russia has stated that it may extend the ban on refined oil exports if necessary, and Trump has said that the US will impose strong tariff sanctions on Russia. These actions by Western countries and Ukraine aim to strike at Russia's oil exports, enhancing geopolitical risks and causing a phased rebound in crude oil futures prices [5]. 3.3 Price Performance - On Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and strong trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract slightly rose 0.45% to 491.1 yuan per barrel, and it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures price on Friday will maintain a volatile and strong trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the convertible bond market shows wide - volatility characteristics, and attention should be paid to band and structural selection [27]. - Active funds reduce positions, while passive funds increase allocations. The delisting of Pufa Convertible Bonds in October may bring re - allocation demand [27]. - In Q4, the equity market tends to have a structural market. Equity - biased convertible bonds still have obvious elasticity advantages, and capital outflows bring more profit space for low - price convertible bonds [27]. - A portfolio of ten convertible bonds is recommended to select high - quality targets, focusing on elasticity, and the portfolio is adjusted monthly [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, up from 50.1% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.7%, 6.0%, and 8.8% respectively. The new RMB loans of financial institutions in that month were 590 billion yuan [1]. - In August 2025, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year [1]. - In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 0.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.64% [1]. - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of export and import values were 4.4% and 1.3% respectively [1]. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - The Ministry of Commerce called on the US to cancel unreasonable tariffs on China and emphasized that the biggest obstacle to Sino - US economic and trade cooperation is US unilateral restrictions [2]. - Xiaomi launched the Xiaomi 17 series, Xiaomi Pad 8 series, and many other tech home appliances. Xiaomi's founder, CEO Lei Jun, said that self - developed mobile phone SoCs should be persisted for at least 10 years with an investment of at least 50 billion yuan [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 14.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.5% [2]. Metals - On September 25, international precious metal futures generally rose. Fed officials sent mixed policy signals, reflecting the Fed's dilemma in balancing inflation and employment goals [3]. - On September 25, the closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract 2511 was 82,710 yuan/ton, up 3.4%. The suspension of production at the Grasberg mine may exacerbate the global copper supply shortage [3][4]. - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to control the expansion of copper smelting capacity. High - end analysts predicted a 500,000 - ton copper supply loss in the next 12 - 15 months [4]. - Congo (Kinshasa) extended the cobalt export ban until October 15 and implemented an export quota system. Cobalt prices have risen nearly 40% this year [4]. - Citi raised its copper price forecast. It is expected that the medium - term copper price will rise to $12,000 per ton in the next 6 - 12 months [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In August 2025, global crude steel production increased by 0.3% year - on - year to 145.3 million tons, while China's crude steel production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year to 77.4 million tons [6]. - As of mid - September, the price of coke (quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke) decreased by 4.69% month - on - month, and the price of rebar (HRB400E Φ20mm) increased by 0.29% month - on - month [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - On September 25, international oil prices fluctuated narrowly. The resumption of crude oil exports in the Kurdish region eased supply concerns, but the unexpected decrease in US crude oil inventories offset some negative impacts [8]. - Daqing Gulong Continental Shale Oil National Demonstration Area added 158 million tons of proven shale oil reserves [8]. - Russia plans to implement a diesel export ban on resellers until the end of the year and extend the gasoline export ban on resellers and producers [8]. Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs called for stabilizing the supply of "vegetable basket" products and promoting the application of high - performance agricultural machinery [9]. - In 2024, China's organic product sales reached 124.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 22.79%, making China the world's third - largest organic consumer market [9]. - China launched an anti - dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the US starting from September 25 [10]. - The EU Commission adjusted its forecasts for wheat and corn production and exports in the 2025/26 season [10]. - Argentina resumed taxing the export of grains and their by - products after agricultural product sales reached $7 billion [10]. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On September 25, the central bank conducted 483.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 3.5 billion yuan on the same day [11]. - On September 25, the central bank conducted 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, and has increased the volume of MLF for 7 consecutive months [11]. Important News and Information - China submitted a position paper on the issue of special and differential treatment to the WTO, not seeking new special and differential treatment in current and future negotiations [12][13]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to issues related to Sino - US soybean trade and Boeing aircraft purchase negotiations, emphasizing that US unilateral restrictions are the main obstacle to normal economic and trade cooperation [2][13]. - The Ministry of Commerce launched a trade and investment barrier investigation into Mexico's measures to raise import tariffs on Chinese products [14]. - Three US companies were included in the unreliable entity list for their military - related cooperation with Taiwan [15]. - The China Foreign Exchange Trade System will optimize the "Swap Connect" operation mechanism and increase the daily net limit to 450 billion yuan from October 13 [15]. - The central bank deputy governor proposed to expand the application scenarios of the Hong Kong RMB bond market [16]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority jointly released a development roadmap for the fixed - income and money market [16]. - The scale of China's public funds exceeded 36 trillion yuan for the first time at the end of August [17]. - Internet giants such as Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba are accelerating their layout in the dim - sum bond market [17]. - The Digital RMB International Operation Center was officially launched on September 24, with three business platforms launched [18]. - The Bank of China Research Institute predicted that more banks may cut deposit rates in Q4, and the RMB exchange rate will remain stable and may appreciate [18]. Bond Market Summary - MLF incremental roll - over had little positive impact on the bond market. Spot bonds and futures were generally weak [21]. - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally rose, while some other bonds fell [21]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.46%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.33% [22]. - On September 25, most money market interest rates rose [22]. - Shibor short - term varieties showed differentiation [23]. - The winning yields of some financial bonds issued by policy - based banks were announced [23][24]. - Inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds and silver - silver inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds generally rose [24]. - European and US bond yields generally rose, with some exceptions [24][25]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1253, down 34 basis points from the previous trading day [26]. - The US dollar index rose 0.60%, and most non - US currencies fell [26]. Stock Market Important News - The A - share market showed a differentiated trend, with the ChiNext Index hitting a new stage high for two consecutive days. AI concept stocks rebounded [29]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.13%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.89%. Geely Auto rose nearly 4% on its first trading day [29]. - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges announced the holiday schedule for the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival [29]. Today's Reminders - On September 26, 247 bonds will be listed, 88 bonds will be issued, 139 bonds will make payments, and 344 bonds will repay principal and interest [28].

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures variety arbitrage data daily report for September 26, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From September 19 - 25, 2025, the base price of thermal coal remained at -95.4 yuan/ton (except -96.4 yuan/ton on September 22 and -97.4 yuan/ton on September 19), and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with specific values varying each day [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: Base price data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided, with values changing daily [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3 * methanol from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [11] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price**: Base price data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [21] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [20] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Domestic Base Price**: Domestic base price data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [28] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 25, 2025 are provided [32] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: Base price data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are presented, including 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads [36] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: Inter - commodity spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [36] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: Base price data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from September 19 - 25, 2025 are provided [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including next month - current month and next quarter - current quarter spreads, are presented [47]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着阿根廷宣布恢复谷物及副产品的出口税。事件的扰动影响仍在持续，豆类期价迎来反弹。 目前，国内市场供应压力有增无减，市场对短期供应压力的担忧仍存在持续。此外，随着十一国庆假期的 临近，市场资金仍偏向于交易短期逻辑，资金稳定性较差，在没有超预期风险因素爆发的前提下，节前市 场波动或将逐渐下降，短期走势震荡偏强。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-09-26 品种晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 2511 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近日美联储如期降息 25 个基点，符合市场预期，不过点阵图显示 20 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需压制，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。在宏观因子逐渐减弱以后，偏弱供需因素重新主导甲醇盘面。本 周四夜盘国内甲醇期货 2601 合约维持震荡偏弱的走势，期价略微收低 0.68%至 2341 元/吨。预计本 周五国内甲醇期货 2 ...

Report Date - September 25, 2025 [4] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled and the rubber market enters a weak supply - demand structure - dominated market [5] - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile consolidation trend due to the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals and the rebound of the futures price being suppressed by the moving average [5] - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract may maintain a volatile upward trend under the enhanced geopolitical risks, as Ukraine continuously attacks Russian oil - producing facilities and the US plans tariff sanctions on Russia [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 million tons, a decrease of 0.36 million tons or 0.76% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 5.07%, and the general - trade inventory increased by 0.04%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [7] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [7] - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [8] - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [8] Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8132 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 30,200 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58% [9] - As of September 19, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures盘面 profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [9] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 487,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory as of the week of September 25, 2025, was 320,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 116,900 tons [10][11] Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 418, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 301,000 barrels per day [11] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 2.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [12] - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 98,709 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a 19.13% decrease from the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 220,410 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and an 8.94% increase from the August average. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [13] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | + 100 yuan/ton | 15,620 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | - 800 yuan/ton | + 50 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | 2,355 yuan/ton | - 3 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 461.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 490.3 yuan/barrel | + 6.0 yuan/barrel | - 28.5 yuan/barrel | - 5.7 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts Rubber - Rubber basis [15] - Rubber 1 - 5 month spread [21] - SHFE rubber futures inventory [17] - Qingdao bonded - area rubber inventory [21] - All - steel tire operating rate trend [19] - Semi - steel tire operating rate trend [23] Methanol - Methanol basis [27] - Methanol 1 - 5 month spread [33] - Methanol domestic port inventory [29] - Methanol inland social inventory [35] - Methanol - to - olefin operating rate change [31] - Coal - to - methanol cost accounting [37] Crude Oil - Crude oil basis [40] - SHFE crude oil futures inventory [46] - US crude oil commercial inventory [42] - US refinery operating rate [48] - WTI crude oil net - position holding change [44] - Brent crude oil net - position holding change [50]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On September 25, the coke main contract closed at 1,760 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.00%. The spot market saw the Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index unchanged week - on - week, while the Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke ex - warehouse price dropped 3.33% week - on - week. With thin profits for coke enterprises, rising coking coal prices, and pre - holiday restocking demand, coke started its first price increase. The coke fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode, with the futures fluctuating in a range. The future trend depends on new benefits from anti - involution policies [3][32]. - On September 25, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,234.5 points, with an intraday increase of 0.98%. The Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal price rose 5.79% week - on - week. The national coking coal output increased week - on - week but was lower than the same period last year. The 288 Port Mongolian coal customs clearance reached a high. The demand from coking plants and steel mills was basically flat week - on - week. The coking coal's real - world fundamentals have limited support, but pre - holiday restocking expectations and end - of - month coal mine production cut expectations support the price, keeping the main contract in high - level oscillation [4][33]. Summary by Directory Industry News - In August 2025, the global crude steel output of 70 countries/regions was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. Output in different regions had varying changes: Africa decreased by 3.8%, Asia and Oceania increased by 0.4%, the EU (27 countries) decreased by 2.8%, other European countries increased by 2.1%, the Middle East increased by 21.5%, North America increased by 1.6%, Russia and other CIS countries + Ukraine decreased by 4.9%, and South America decreased by 5.0% [7]. - On September 25, the coking coal price in the Linfen Anze market rose by 10 yuan/ton, with the low - sulfur primary coking coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 ex - factory price at 1,590 yuan/ton [8]. Spot Market - Coke: Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, down 6.37% month - on - month and 13.02% year - on - year; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price was 1,450 yuan/ton, down 3.33% week - on - week, 2.03% month - on - month and 10.49% year - on - year [9]. - Coking coal: Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal was 1,280 yuan/ton, up 5.79% week - on - week, 8.47% month - on - month and year - on - year, down 7.25% compared to the same period; Jingtang Port Australian - produced coking coal was 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, up 1.90% month - on - month and 8.05% year - on - year, down 3.01% compared to the same period; Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced coking coal was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 6.21% week - on - week, 4.91% month - on - month and 11.76% year - on - year, down 2.84% compared to the same period [9]. Futures Market - Coke: The main contract closed at 1,760 yuan/ton, up 2.00%, with a trading volume of 26,758 lots (an increase of 4,131 lots) and an open interest of 45,691 lots (an increase of 704 lots) [12]. - Coking coal: The main contract closed at 1,234.5 points, up 0.98%, with a trading volume of 735,240 lots (a decrease of 370,034 lots) and an open interest of 683,520 lots (a decrease of 16,170 lots) [12]. Related Charts - Coke inventory: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, port coke, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory over different years [13][15][16]. - Coking coal inventory: Charts display the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, full - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills over different years [20][22][23]. - Other charts: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [26][28][30]. Market Outlook - Coke: The market has a wait - and - see attitude. The future trend depends on new benefits from anti - involution policies [3][32]. - Coking coal: The main contract will maintain high - level oscillation due to pre - holiday restocking and end - of - month production cut expectations, despite limited real - world fundamental support [4][33].