投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 2 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 货币环境偏宽松，国债期货小幅反弹 核心观点 今日国债期货均小幅反弹。由于 5 月信贷数据与通胀数据表现偏弱反 映出内需的内生性 增长动能有所不足，政策面预计未来需要继续保持偏宽 松的货币环境来托底经济需求端，因此国债期货的支撑力量较强。上周因为 外部风险因素缓和加上 6 月制造业 PMI 边际改善，国债期货有所回调，不过 国债期货下行的空间较为有限，市场利率始终受到政策利率的锚定效果。总 的来说，总短期内国债期货维持震荡整理的走势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 865.0 元/吨，周环比持平，折合期货 仓单成本约 834 元/吨。钢联资讯显示，长治沁源前期受安监停产的煤矿陆续复产，焦煤供应担 忧再现，驱动期货回调。上周，我们提示了安全月结束后，焦煤产量恢复的利空风险。当前供 应端是市场博弈的焦点之一，后续也需要继续跟踪主产区实际生产情况。整体来看，焦煤需求 暂稳运行，而供应端扰动再现，期货价格向下调整，预计短期内焦煤主力合约暂维持区间震荡 运行，密切关注山西煤矿 7 月产量情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 供应压力再现，焦煤震荡回调 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。股市全市场成交额 14965 亿元，较上日缩量 207 亿元。近 期股市成交量能维持在 1.5 万亿元左右，说明市场风险偏好 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price oscillated at a low level with a daily decline of 0.20%, and both volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the supply pressure of rebar is increasing while demand is weak. In this situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are under pressure. The positive factor is that the inventory inflection point has not appeared yet, and the real - world contradictions are not significant. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price rebounded after hitting the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and both volume and open interest contracted. At present, production restriction disturbances have reappeared, and hot - rolled coil prices are oscillating upwards. However, supply is stabilizing at a high level while demand is weakening, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices are still prone to pressure, and the upward driving force should be viewed with caution. Attention should be focused on production restriction situations [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price weakened, with a daily decline of 1.32%, and both volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the demand for iron ore shows good resilience, providing strong support for ore prices. However, supply remains at a high level, and the improvement of demand is questionable. The fundamentals have not improved substantially. It is expected that ore prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Manufacturing PMI**: In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous month and returning to the expansion range. This is the 8th time the index has been above the boom - bust line in the past 9 months, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [6]. - **Heavy - truck sales**: In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% from May and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. The main reason for the increase is the environmental protection policy, specifically the implementation of the differential subsidy policy for the scrapping and replacement of old operating trucks [7]. - **Steel raw material procurement costs**: In May 2025, except for the slight month - on - month increase in the procurement costs of metallurgical coke, domestic pellets, and imported pellets, the procurement costs of other varieties decreased month - on - month, but the decline narrowed. Among them, the procurement costs of pulverized coal injection, steam coal, and alloys decreased relatively significantly [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Black metal spot prices**: The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products are provided, along with their price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,205 yuan, down 6 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) was 3,224 yuan, down 7 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Futures prices of main contracts**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures are presented. For instance, the closing price of rebar futures was 3,003 yuan, down 0.20%; the closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,136 yuan, up 0.06%; the closing price of iron ore futures was 708.5 yuan, down 1.32% [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of iron ore in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18][25]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][31][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. The production of construction steel mills has increased, and the weekly output of rebar has increased by 5.66 tons, reaching a relatively high level this year. Demand is weakly stable, and the weekly apparent demand has slightly increased by 0.72 tons. The weak demand restricts steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [37]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: There are changes in both supply and demand. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has increased by 1.79 tons, remaining at a high level this year. Demand resilience is weakening, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 4.44 tons. Although the downstream cold - rolled production is at a high level, the end of the Sino - US tariff "exemption period" may lead to external risks. It is expected that steel prices will be under pressure, and attention should be paid to production restriction situations [37]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. Steel mills are actively producing during the off - season, and the terminal consumption of iron ore continues to rise. However, the arrival at ports has unexpectedly declined, and miners' shipments have also decreased. The supply pressure remains relatively high. It is expected that ore prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [38].

有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜价午后增仓上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价增仓上行，主力期价站上 8.07 万关口，沪铜持仓量午后 上升超 2 万张。午后有色普涨，白银也上行明显。宏观层面，上周以 色列和伊朗停战，宏观氛围回暖，此外，美联储降息预期升温，美 元持续下挫，利好铜价。产业层面，Mysteel 电解铜库存为 12.35 万 吨，较上周去库 0.84 万吨。宏观和产业利好共振推动铜价站上 8 万 关口，预计铜价将维持强势。 沪铝 有色金属 | 日报 1. 产业动态 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 1 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 基本面压制，煤焦震荡回调 核心观点 焦炭：7 月 1 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1388.5 元/吨，日内录得 2.46%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.96 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1264 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1220 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1160 元/吨，周 环比上涨 1.75%。6 月全国安全生产月结束后，焦煤主产区安监压力逐渐 放缓，焦煤产量或迎来回升，成本端供应扰 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The rubber and synthetic rubber markets are expected to run weakly in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a focus on weak operation [1][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - For both Shanghai rubber (RU) 2509 and synthetic rubber (BR) 2508, the short - term and mid - term views are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening", with a reference view of "weak operation" [1] 2. Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Core logic: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal effect of common positive factors for energy - chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the rubber market re - dominate. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and high monthly output pressure, while downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. On Monday night, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures closed down 0.46% to 13,945 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Tuesday [5] 3. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Core logic: As geopolitical factors weaken, the marginal effect of common positive factors for energy - chemical commodity futures decreases, and the negative factors of the weak supply - demand structure in the synthetic rubber market re - dominate. The operating loads of some private cis - butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up the output and capacity utilization rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber last week. Downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed, and terminal demand has entered the off - season. On Monday night, the 2508 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures closed down 0.22% to 11,245 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Tuesday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on July 1, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows a gradual increase from - 185.4 to - 180.4 yuan/ton; the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For INE crude oil, the basis from June 24 to June 30, 2025, increased from - 33.99 to - 19.94 yuan/ton; the fuel oil basis data has some blanks; the crude oil/asphalt ratio decreased from 0.1520 to 0.1395 [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for various chemicals from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. For example, the natural rubber basis changed from 185 to - 35 yuan/ton. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads are also provided for multiple chemicals [11]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, as well as inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc., are presented [16]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends [24]. 3.4.2 London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on June 30, 2025, are provided [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc., from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads and inter - variety spreads for multiple agricultural products are also presented [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from June 24 to June 30, 2025, shows different trends. Inter - period spreads for different contracts of these indices are also provided [48].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格继续反弹，中低卡煤由于前期港口发运利润倒挂，港口货源偏 紧，价格走势更强。库存方面，根据 iFind 统计，截至 6 月 26 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2824 万吨，周环比降 46 万吨，去库速度略有放缓，且截至目前北港库存仍维持近 5 年最高水平，迎峰 度夏基础良好。整体来看，动力煤季节性支撑走强，港口煤价全线上涨，其中低卡煤涨势较好， 随着后续气温继续走高，预计短期内煤价仍将维持偏强走势。 （仅供参考，不 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 地缘冲突缓和，金价技术压力较 大 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：昨日金价触底回升，短期市场对短期伊朗和以色列停战的计价较为充分，行 ...