投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，钢价承压运行 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢产业矛盾在累积，建筑钢厂提产，螺纹钢产量环比增加，供应迎来回升，关注后续增幅 情况。同时，螺纹高频需求指标延续下行，季节性走弱特征明显，弱势需求易抑制钢价。目前来 看，螺纹钢供应有所回升，而需求表现疲弱，供需矛盾在累积，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存 偏低，短期螺纹延续维持震荡寻底态势，关注今日钢联公布的产销数据情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价 ...

宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面未改善，矿价低位震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 铁矿石基本面弱势运行，库存持续累库，钢厂有所提产，矿石终端消耗迎来回升，需求韧性表现 尚可，给予矿价支撑，但淡季钢市难以承接持续增产，空间有限。相反，财年末矿商冲量积极，港口 到货和矿商发运均大幅回升，双双升至年内高位，相应的内矿供应也在恢复，矿石供应居高不下。综 上，矿石需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但供应维持高位，且需求增量空间有限，矿石供需格局 并未实质性好转，矿价继续承压、低位震荡运行，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-26 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 22871.00 11591.00 | 20623.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | 202506 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/25 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/24 | -185.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/19 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均单边大幅上涨，午后快速拉涨。股市全市场成交额 16394 亿元，较上日放量 1915 亿元。板块题材上，大金融、军工、半导体板块领涨。受 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期地缘风险降温，美国大豆产区天气状况持续改善，美豆期价呈现明显的天气市波动特征， 美豆期价重心有所下移。国内豆类市场交易逻辑未变，跟随外盘美豆期价波动节奏，短期资金出现松动加 剧盘面波动，期价震荡偏弱运行。 品种：棕榈油(P) 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper futures, suggesting a short - term weakening for gold and a short - term strengthening for copper [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **View**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: decline; Overall: short - term bearish [1][3] - **Core Logic**: Recent significant drops in crude oil and gold, along with rallies in US and A - shares. The cease - fire between Iran and Israel has eased short - term geopolitical conflicts, increasing market risk appetite and pressuring gold prices. Gold prices rebounded after falling to the 60 - day moving average, indicating technical support. If the 60 - day moving average of Shanghai gold and New York gold is broken, gold may remain weak in the short term. Also, the decline in safe - haven demand may cause the gold - silver ratio to continue weakening [3]. Copper (CU) - **View**: Short - term: increase; Medium - term: increase; Intraday: increase; Overall: short - term bullish [1][4] - **Core Logic**: This week, copper prices have oscillated upwards, with an increase in open interest. The main futures price is approaching the 79,000 yuan mark, and the monthly spread continues to weaken. Short - term macroeconomic improvement has pushed up copper prices. Overseas macroeconomics have clearly improved since Tuesday due to the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, reducing safe - haven demand and increasing risk appetite. Crude oil and gold have significantly declined, while global equity and commodity markets have risen. In the context of the slowdown of US tariff policies and the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, market risk appetite may continue to rise, pushing up copper prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 80,000 yuan mark. If the market trades on the production - cut expectation again, the macro and industrial factors may resonate, and copper prices may perform well [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 宏观经济指标偏弱，货币宽松预 期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。消息面，近期央行在公开市场净投放流动性，以应对半年末流 动性紧张的局面，维持流动性平稳。中长期来看，未来降息预期较强，国债期 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 旺季需求改善，中低卡煤走势偏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：随着迎峰度夏旺季到来，动力煤需求支撑显现，北港库存快速去化，前期"电煤需求 疲弱""产业链库存充足"这两大制约煤价的主要利空因素得到阶段性缓解，带动煤价止跌。但 国内产量仍维持较高水平，供应压力仍存，使得煤价也并未迎来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 25, 2025, all stock indices rose significantly unilaterally, with a sharp increase in the afternoon. The total market turnover of the stock market was 1639.4 billion yuan, an increase of 191.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The large - finance, military, and semiconductor sectors led the gains. Affected by the "stablecoin" news, the valuation expectations of securities brokers were rapidly boosted. The main support for the market currently comes from the expectation of favorable policies in the future. Due to the marginal weakening of credit and inflation indicators in May, the expectation of policy support has increased. In the short term, the stock index is expected to be volatile and bullish. The implied volatility of options is at a relatively low historical quantile level, and there is a high possibility of a medium - to - long - term upward trend in the stock index. Bull spread or ratio spread long - position portfolios can be established [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On June 25, 2025, 50ETF rose 1.43% to 2.832; 300ETF (SSE) rose 1.65% to 4.001; 300ETF (SZSE) rose 1.65% to 4.126; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.44% to 3960.07; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.32% to 6276.16; 500ETF (SSE) rose 1.88% to 5.913; 500ETF (SZSE) rose 1.77% to 2.361; the ChiNext ETF rose 3.18% to 2.109; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.94% to 2.732; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.17% to 2747.73; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.85% to 1.05; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.89% to 1.02 [5]. - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options showed different changes compared to the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 64.98 (previous day: 82.82), and the open interest PCR was 126.32 (previous day: 108.69) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options in July 2025 were provided. For instance, the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in July 2025 was 12.35%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 8.83% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][11][13]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [20][22]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [23][25]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [35][37]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [48][55]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [62][67]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [75][77]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Charts cover the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [88][94]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [101][107]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [114][124]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts cover the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [125][127]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts involve the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [128][133].