Core Insights - The report indicates a strong upward trend in crude oil prices due to renewed geopolitical risks, particularly related to ongoing attacks in Ukraine and potential sanctions against Russia [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report presents a short-term and medium-term outlook for crude oil, both indicating a "震荡偏强" (strong oscillation) trend, with a specific focus on the recent geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply [5]. Price Movements - On the recent trading day, the domestic crude oil futures contract (2511) saw a slight increase of 1.47%, closing at 482.3 yuan per barrel, suggesting a continuation of the strong oscillation trend in the following days [5]. Geopolitical Factors - The report highlights that the ongoing military actions in Ukraine against Russian oil facilities and the potential for extended sanctions from the U.S. are key drivers of the current market dynamics, contributing to the upward pressure on crude oil prices [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-24 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围增强，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。随着前期甲醇期价持续走低以后，利空情绪有所释放。本周二夜 盘国内甲醇期货 2601 合约维 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，钢厂生产平稳，终端消耗维持高位，矿石需求表现尚可，给予矿价支 撑，但下游钢市矛盾不断累积，且补库利好趋弱，需求存有隐忧。与此同时，国内港口到货如期回升， 而矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应相对偏高，叠加内矿供应恢复，供应压力在增加。总之，矿石需 求表现尚可，给予矿价支撑 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 市场情绪趋弱，钢价承压下行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 观点参考 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to 15,525 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.22% to 15,525 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread expanded to 40 yuan/ton. With the implementation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the short - term positive factors were exhausted. The rubber market entered a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [5]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,351 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,327 yuan/ton, and the closing price slightly decreased by 0.42% to 2,343 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 32 yuan/ton. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected that the domestic methanol futures contract 2601 may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [5]. - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating downward, and significantly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 478.7 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 471.6 yuan/barrel, and the closing price significantly decreased by 2.29% to 473.1 yuan/barrel. With the implementation of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the short - term positive factors were exhausted, and the market shifted to a weak supply - demand fundamental. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the future [6]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Rubber**: As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 461,200 tons (the adjusted previous - period total inventory was 464,700 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.76%. The bonded - area inventory was 69,400 tons (the adjusted previous - period bonded inventory was 73,100 tons), a decrease of 5.07%; the general - trade inventory was 391,800 tons (the adjusted previous - period general - trade inventory was 391,600 tons), an increase of 0.04%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural - rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general - trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year slight decrease of 3.40 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year significant increase of 8.30 percentage points. In the terminal retail sector, in August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1% compared with July and a year - on - year increase of about 35% compared with 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13% [9][10]. - **Methanol**: As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 79.39%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month slight decrease of 1.26%, and a slight decrease of 1.53% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly domestic methanol output reached 1.8132 million tons, a week - on - week significant decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 84,200 tons, and a slight decrease of 30,200 tons compared with 1.8434 million tons in the same period last year. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.54%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.06%. For dimethyl ether, the operating rate remained at 6.68%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 75.72%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 57.66%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.85%. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week slight increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month slight increase of 3.58%. As of September 19, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight recovery of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decline of 26 yuan/ton. As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventories in East and South China remained at 1.3298 million tons, a week - on - week significant increase of 62,500 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 395,600 tons, and a significant increase of 487,200 tons compared with the same period last year. Among them, the port methanol inventory in East China reached 851,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,700 tons, and the port methanol inventory in South China reached 478,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,800 tons. As of the week of September 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 340,500 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 29,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 94,200 tons compared with 434,700 tons in the same period last year [11][12][13]. - **Crude Oil**: As of the week of September 12, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 416, a week - on - week slight increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year slight increase of 282,000 barrels per day. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA, reached 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 296,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate remained at 93.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 1.2 percentage points. As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil futures remained at 98,709 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 16,865 contracts, a significant decrease of 23,354 contracts compared with the August average of 122,063 contracts, and a decline of 19.13%. Meanwhile, as of September 16, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds remained at 220,410 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 14,635 contracts, a slight increase of 18,092 contracts compared with the August average of 202,318 contracts, and an increase of 8.94%. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week [13][14][15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,615 yuan/ton | - 90 yuan/ton | - 825 yuan/ton | +90 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,260 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | 2,343 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | - 83 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 456.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.4 yuan/barrel | 473.1 yuan/barrel | - 9.9 yuan/barrel | - 17.1 yuan/barrel | +9.5 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various related charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, methanol basis, methanol port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, crude oil basis, US commercial crude oil inventory, etc., but does not provide specific data analysis in the text [17][30][44]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 23 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 股指宽幅震荡整理为主 核心观点 今日各股指均宽幅震荡整理，全天探底回升。沪深京三市全天成交额 25186 亿元，较上日放量 3760 亿元。目前市场情绪存在一定分歧，重点关 注资金止盈节奏与政策预期发酵的博弈情况。一方面随着估值端显著上升， 获利资金止盈需求仍存；另一方面，政策利好预期与资金面净流入趋势构成 驱动股指上行的中长期动力。目前政策利好预期的发酵有待 10 月重磅会议 的召开，增量资金方面从融资余额突破 2.4 万亿、7 月份和 8 月份新增非银 存款同比大幅多增等情况可见一斑。总的来说，短期内股指预计以宽幅震荡 为主。 目前期权隐含波动率有所上升，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以继续持 有牛市价差或比例价差。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 23 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 观望情绪渐浓，煤焦延续震荡 一 产业资讯 （1）金融监管部门"十四五"发力：7 万亿贷款托底 2000 万套住房交付 9 月 22 日，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题 新闻发布会，金融监管部门详细介绍了"十四五"时期金融业发展成就。其中， 房地产金融政策成效显著，特别是城市房地产融资协调机制的建立，成为化解房 地产风险的关键举措。国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽在发布会上表示，该机 制通过"白名单"项目发放贷款超过 7 万亿元， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 23 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货维持低位震荡 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡下跌。昨日盘后的国新会上，央行行长表示不涉及 短期政策，叠加 9 月 LPR 持平，短期降息预期消退。不过从中长期来看，目 前国内内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，海外美联储启动降息令人民币汇率 端压力大大减小，未来货币政策偏宽松的可能性较高。国债期货具有较强支 撑。不过短期内降息预期下降，国债期货缺乏上行动能。预计短期内国债期 货以低位震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report [3] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price oscillated downward with a daily decline of 1.00%, volume decreased while open interest increased. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of rebar have improved, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain. The improvement is not strong. The relatively positive factors are cost increase and policy expectations. With the game of multiple and short factors, it is expected that the steel price will maintain an oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.33%, volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the demand resilience of hot - rolled coils is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, inventory has increased again, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost increase. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be oscillating and weakening. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price declined from a high level with a daily decline of 1.23%, both volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is performing well, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices, but the demand positive factors are weakening, supply pressure is increasing, the fundamental expectation is weakening, and the valuation is relatively high. The pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The Party Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will continue to consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market and strive to build a new real estate development model [6] - In August, the retail sales of household appliances by units above the designated size increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The consumer market maintained a stable operation in August [7] - Vietnamese enterprises filed an anti - circumvention investigation application against Chinese hot - rolled coils on September 10, 2025, and the Vietnamese Trade Defense Agency officially accepted it on September 18, 2025 [8] Spot Market - **Rebar**: The Shanghai price was 3,240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,312 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [9] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The Shanghai price was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the national average price was 3,441 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [9] - **Tangshan billet**: The price was 3,030 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [9] - **Zhangjiagang heavy scrap**: The price was 2,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [9] - **61.5% PB powder**: The price at Shandong ports was 795 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [9] - **Tangshan iron concentrate**: The price was 803 yuan/ton, unchanged [9] Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,155 | - 1.00 | 1,290,376 | - 362,153 | 1,881,412 | 20,270 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,340 | - 1.33 | 649,366 | 100,542 | 1,367,093 | - 15,676 | | Iron ore | 802.5 | - 1.23 | 289,687 | - 119,815 | 546,570 | - 15,454 | [11] Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 - 2025 [14][16][20][21] - **Iron ore inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines from 2021 - 2025, as well as the inventory change [19][22][25][31] - **Steel mill production**: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [26][28][32][36] Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has improved. The weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons, and the demand increased by 11.96 tons. However, the inventory is higher than in previous years, and the demand is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand [37] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The weekly output increased by 1.35 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.34 tons. The demand resilience is weakening, the supply is at a high level, and the inventory has increased. It is expected that the price will be oscillating and weakening, and attention should be paid to the demand [37] - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The terminal consumption of ore continues to rise, and the demand is good, but the demand positive factors are weakening. The supply pressure is increasing. The pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [38]

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