投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求韧性尚可，矿价震荡走高 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 观点参考 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，钢厂生产积极，矿石终端消耗持续回升，需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿 价强支撑，关注持续性。同时，财年末矿商冲量积极，港口到货和矿商发运均大幅回升，双双升至年 内高位，相应的内矿供应也在恢复，矿石供应压力依然偏大。综上，需求韧性尚可叠加市场 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 地缘冲突缓和，金价技术压力较 大 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：伊朗和以色列停战，短期地缘冲突缓和，市场风险偏好回升，近期原油黄金下挫明显，美 股和 A 股拉涨，金价承压。昨日铜价也上行明显，主力期价一度逼近 8 万关口，这说明了市场风险偏 好在持续回升。而金价跌至 60 日均线后出现反弹，这很大程度说明有技术支撑。此外，近期市场降 息预期升温，美元指数持续走弱，这很大程度上给予金价支撑。持续关注沪金和纽约金 60 日均线支 撑，跌破后或 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 27 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/26 | -183.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/25 | -184.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/24 | -185.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/23 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/06/20 | -192.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求 ...

4 正文目录 1 市场回顾 .....................................................................4 1.1 现货价格振荡回升，基差走阔 .............................. 错误！未定义书签。 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 6 月 26 日 胶版印刷纸 胶版印刷纸期货期权合约及规则介绍 核心观点 1.2 期价上涨，月差转为升水 .................................. 错误！未定义书签。 2 橡胶市场供需依然偏弱 ........................................ 错误！未定义书签。 2.1 产胶国产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On June 26, the coke主力合约 closed at 1395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86% intraday. The spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port decreased week-on-week. With the accumulation of positive factors, the market sentiment changed, and the coke futures rebounded at a low level. The market is expected to be in a stalemate in June, and the coking coal supply in July should be monitored [5][33]. - On June 26, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 819.5 points, up 3.60% intraday. The supply of coking coal shrank during the safety month, and the import volume was also restricted. After the coking coal price reached a multi - year low in early June, the contract started to rise. The recovery of Shanxi's production in July should be focused on [6][34]. Summary by Directory Industry News - From April to May 2025, the number of global new shipbuilding orders decreased by 46, and the corrected total tonnage decreased by 63.85% month - on - month. Compared with May 2024, the number decreased by 111, and the corrected total tonnage decreased by 54.71% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received the most orders, and South Korea ranked second [8]. - On June 26, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The starting price of Meng 4 raw coal was 78 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton from June 5. All 102,400 tons were sold at the base price [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade flat - price coke is 1,220 yuan/ton, down 3.94% week - on - week; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price is 1,140 yuan/ton, down 2.56% week - on - week [10]. - For coking coal, the current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 865 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of Australian - produced coal at Jingtang Port is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 1.65% week - on - week; the price of Shanxi - produced coal at Jingtang Port is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke主力合约 was 1,395.5 yuan/ton, up 1.86%, with a trading volume of 22,795 and an open interest of 51,299, an increase of 24 from the previous trading day [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal主力合约 was 819.5 points, up 3.60%, with a trading volume of 870,999 and an open interest of 564,662, an increase of 40,404 from the previous trading day [13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port, and total inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, and coking plant production [14][21][27]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - term rebound of coke futures and the upward trend of coking coal contracts, and suggesting to pay attention to the coking coal supply in July and the production recovery in Shanxi [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the volume and open interest expanded. The supply of rebar continued to rise, while the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were under pressure. However, the inventory inflection point was yet to appear, and the real - world contradictions were limited. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the volume increased while the open interest remained stable. The supply of hot - rolled coil was stable at a high level, while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions accumulated, and the price of hot - rolled coil continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" ends [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher, with a daily increase of 0.64%, and the volume increased while the open interest decreased. The demand for iron ore showed some resilience, supporting the ore price. However, the supply remained at a high level, and the demand growth space was limited. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore did not improve substantially, and the ore price continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, the number of new global shipbuilding orders was 73, a decrease of 46 from April 2025. The corrected total tonnage decreased by 63.85% month - on - month and 54.71% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received the most orders, followed by South Korea [6]. - The third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July 2025. The relevant departments will coordinate to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [7]. - The Eurasian Economic Commission decided to continue imposing a 15.50% anti - dumping duty on seamless steel pipes originating from China until June 23, 2030. The announcement will take effect on July 24, 2025 [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,030, 3,160, and 3,190 respectively, with price changes of - 10, - 20, and - 6. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,180, 3,100, and 3,218 respectively, with no price changes. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 with a - 10 change. The coil - rebar price difference was 150, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 930 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 702 with a + 2 change, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 697 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 8.78, and from Brazil was 22.68. The SGX swap price (current month) was 94.30, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 92.75 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,973, with a 0.10% increase, the highest price was 2,977, the lowest price was 2,952, the trading volume was 1,377,892 with an increase of 16,628, and the open interest was 2,191,778 with an increase of 19,178 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,103, with a 0.39% increase, the highest price was 3,104, the lowest price was 3,080, the trading volume was 552,939 with an increase of 19,514, and the open interest was 1,510,669 with an increase of 263 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 705.5, with a 0.64% increase, the highest price was 707.5, the lowest price was 698.0, the trading volume was 326,475 with an increase of 10,602, and the open interest was 654,225 with a decrease of 17,723 [11]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and inventories of iron ore at ports, steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18][28] - Charts also show the production situation of steel mills, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate of independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][31][35] Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The weekly output increased by 5.66 tons, and the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were expected to continue to oscillate [36]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern changed. The weekly output increased by 1.79 tons, and the demand weakened. The price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the tariff risk after the "exemption period" ends [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed. The terminal consumption of ore increased slightly, but the supply remained at a high level. The ore price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [37]

宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘情绪反复，原油震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-06-26 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 晨会纪要 --------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillating strongly [1][5] - The geopolitical factor weakens, and the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and strongly - biased trend on Thursday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - After experiencing a sharp decline on Tuesday and stabilizing on Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures had an oversold rebound on Wednesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 1.30% to 2419 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - As US President Trump's comments indicated the end of the conflict between Iran and Israel, and then the two countries announced a formal cease - fire, the geopolitical trading logic weakened. The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures and international methanol prices declined [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空博弈，焦煤宽幅震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空因素交织，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：6 月 25 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约报收 807.0 点，夜盘期间上涨 2.02%。现货市场方面， 甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 865.0 元/吨，周环比持平，折合期货仓单成本 ...