1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while the long - and medium - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the stock index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Due to the lack of effective domestic demand, the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still possible. The market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut is weak, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term. With less uncertainty in the internal and external environment recently and the supply pressure of Treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year, Treasury bond futures lack upward momentum. Overall, Treasury bond futures are supported below and pressured above, expected to remain in an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term trend is "oscillation", the medium - term trend is "oscillation", the intraday trend is "weakening", and the view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of an interest rate cut is low, while the long - and medium - term easing expectation still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. Due to the lack of effective domestic demand, the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still possible. The market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut is weak, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, there is no strong urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term. With less uncertainty in the internal and external environment recently and the supply pressure of Treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year, Treasury bond futures lack upward momentum. Overall, Treasury bond futures are supported below and pressured above, expected to remain in an oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5].

Section 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Section 2: Core View - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to continue its low - level oscillation. The current situation is weak, with supply at a low and stable level and demand weakly stable. Although there is cost support and policy expectations, the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price is still under pressure [1][2]. Section 3: Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The overall view is low - level oscillation due to the weak real - world situation [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both stabilized. Supply has slightly increased but remains at a low level for the year, providing support for steel prices. However, with the improved profits of short - process steel mills, supply is expected to rise. Demand is weakly stable, with high - frequency demand indicators increasing month - on - month but still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. Downstream industries have not improved, and off - season demand will continue to weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. The steel price is expected to continue its low - level oscillation, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [2].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-24 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素主导，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区步入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，同时胶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The fundamental situation is weak with demand weakening and supply remaining high, but there are some positive factors such as unresolved structural contradictions in the spot market and pre - holiday restocking expectations, which create resistance to the downward movement of prices. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "wide - range oscillation" because the fundamental situation is weak and the ore price is under pressure [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, putting pressure on the ore price. The positive factor is the strong expectation of pre - holiday restocking due to low mill inventories. Domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have both decreased month - on - month but are still at high levels within the year, and overseas ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is shrinking, the overall ore supply remains high. The weakening demand, high supply, and RMB appreciation put pressure on the ore price, while the unresolved spot structural contradictions and pre - holiday restocking expectations create resistance to the price decline [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The domestic supply - demand of soybean meal remains loose, and its futures price will continue to oscillate at a low level. The near - month contracts are relatively resilient, but short - term rebound momentum is insufficient [5]. - Palm oil has stopped falling and rebounded in the short term due to the closing of short - profit positions after the release of pessimistic sentiment in Malaysian palm oil. However, the rebound height is restricted by subsequent export data and domestic arrival rhythm [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - based Views**: Short - term view is "oscillating weakly", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Although China's new purchases have boosted US soybean futures prices, they are still in low - level oscillation. Domestic soybean meal inventory has increased week - on - week, contract volume has dropped significantly, indicating reduced market purchasing willingness and shrinking forward orders. The rising oil refinery operating rate has further increased inventory pressure, and the spot price support is limited [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - based Views**: Short - term view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "oscillating strongly" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: After the release of pessimistic sentiment in Malaysian palm oil, the closing of short - profit positions in the previous continuous decline of the oil and fat sector has driven the price to stop falling and rebound. However, the oil and fat sector still faces heavy inventory pressure, and the rebound rhythm is affected by the international market. Palm oil is in a resonance stage of international export recovery, domestic inventory pressure relief, and capital game, but the short - term rebound space is restricted [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, with a short - term (within a week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) view of oscillation and an intraday view of being on the strong side. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations and the net capital inflow trend remain unchanged, but near the end of the year, the capital liquidity is tightening and the policy is in a window period, resulting in insufficient short - term upward driving force [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is on the strong side, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is the unchanged positive policy expectations and net capital inflow trend [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is on the strong side, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The previous day, each stock index oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The total stock market turnover was 191.53 billion yuan, an increase of 33.1 billion yuan compared with the previous day. In the long - term, the positive policy expectations and net capital inflow trend are favorable, providing strong support for the stock index. As the positive policy expectations for 2026 gradually ferment, market risk appetite is rising and the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate is increasing. However, near the end of the year, the capital liquidity is tightening and the policy is in a window period, so the short - term upward driving force is insufficient [5]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and show a stronger trend intraday, with an overall outlook of stronger operation due to increased geopolitical risks [1] - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the oil price rebound. The US pressure on Venezuela may lead to a global crude oil supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices, and the domestic crude oil futures may maintain a stable pattern on Wednesday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - **Short - term**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile (within one week) [1] - **Medium - term**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile (from two weeks to one month) [1] - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to show a stronger trend, with a reference view of stronger operation [1][5] 3.2 Price Movement Driving Logic - The main driving force for the recent oil price rebound is the sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation. The US government has increased pressure on Venezuela, including a "full and complete blockade" of sanctioned tankers and plans to seize more tankers. About 600 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil have been seized in total. Venezuela's oil exports in November were about 600,000 barrels per day. The decrease in the number of tankers going to Venezuela has led to concerns about a global supply gap, pushing up the risk premium of oil prices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a short - term upward outlook. The main driving forces are the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut in early December, the rise in market risk appetite and liquidity, and the rebound in short - term liquidity after the implementation of the yen's interest rate hike on December 19. Macro - level easing promotes the general rise of assets, pushing gold prices to break through upwards. [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the short - term, mid - term, and intraday, with a long - term upward outlook. The macro - level atmosphere has warmed up after the implementation of the yen's interest rate hike, the US dollar has remained weak, and non - ferrous metals have generally risen. Although high copper prices suppress consumption in the industrial level, short - term macro factors drive copper prices up with strong upward momentum. [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, gold prices rose strongly. New York gold and London gold successively broke through the $4500 mark, and Shanghai gold broke through the 1000 - yuan mark. [3] - **Driving Factors**: In the short - term, the main driving force for the upward movement of gold prices comes from the monetary policies of the US and Japanese central banks. Since the end of October, Sino - US relations have eased, and gold prices have been under pressure and maintained high - level oscillations. Now, macro - level easing has promoted the general rise of assets, pushing gold prices to break through upwards. [3] - **Technical Analysis**: If there is a pull - back, attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: After the Asian session yesterday, copper prices continued to strengthen. LME copper broke through the $12,000 mark, and Shanghai copper opened higher at night, breaking through the 95,000 - yuan mark and approaching the 96,000 - yuan mark before pulling back. [4] - **Driving Factors**: At the macro - level, after the implementation of the yen's interest rate hike, the macro - atmosphere has warmed up, the US dollar has remained weak, and non - ferrous metals have generally risen. At the industrial level, high copper prices suppress consumption, the basis and monthly spreads continue to weaken, and the futures price shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. [4] - **Technical Analysis**: If there is a pull - back, attention can be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 24, 2025, including power coal, energy and chemical products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. [1][5][20][26][40][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the basis of power coal was -83.4, -90.4, -98.4, -106.4, -114.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decreasing trend. The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0.0 yuan/ton. [2] 2. Energy and Chemical Products (1) Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio**: Data on basis, ratio, and other indicators of fuel oil, crude oil, asphalt, and INE crude oil from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 23 was -2.12 yuan/ton. [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 23 was -440 yuan/ton. [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol for 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are given. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber was -25 yuan/ton. [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 23 was 1575 yuan/ton. [10] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal for 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar was 9.0 yuan/ton. [19] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 23 was 4.03. [19] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on December 23 was 212.0 yuan/ton. [20] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis**: The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on December 23 was -380 yuan/ton. [27] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profits and losses of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 13.16. [34] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 23 was -84 yuan/ton. [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products for 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are given. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 38 yuan/ton. [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on December 23 was 2.83. [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 23 was 49.33. [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter are given. For example, the next - month - current - month inter - period spread of CSI 300 was -16.4. [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy is undergoing a structural transformation from "urban investment - real estate" to "industry - consumption" drive, with changes in core economic contradictions, transmission mechanisms, and cycle laws, and some analysis paradigms need optimization. The importance of fiscal policy is increasing, and more attention is paid to industry analysis on the supply side, while the demand side is shifting from investment - driven to consumption - driven. The old economy, though no longer the main economic engine, can still provide growth elasticity if it stabilizes marginally [29]. - Some investors' concerns about banks' long - term bond - holding capacity may be excessive. In the short term, the ultra - long - term bond market may continue to fluctuate, but in the long run, upward adjustment may face resistance [29]. - Near the end of the year, wealth management may face a certain pressure to return to the balance sheet, but the demand for credit bonds may remain relatively stable. Credit bond yields may fluctuate with interest - rate bonds, and there are trading opportunities in high - quality central - state - owned enterprise real estate bonds [30]. - In 2026, the stock market's upward momentum may shift from single - valuation - driven to "profit + valuation" double - driven. The overall performance of listed companies is expected to improve, and the market may attract more new funds [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - In Q3 2025, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year. In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, social financing increased by 24885 billion yuan, up from 8161 billion yuan last year. M0 increased by 10.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but down from 12.7% in the same period last year; M1 increased by 4.9%, down from 6.2% in the previous month but up from - 0.7% in the same period last year; M2 increased by 8.0%, down from 8.2% in the previous month but up from 7.1% in the same period last year [1]. - In November 2025, new RMB loans from financial institutions reached 3900 billion yuan, up from 2200 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 5800 billion yuan in the same period last year. CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, down from - 2.1% in the previous month but up from - 2.5% in the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reminded members and investors to strengthen risk prevention due to unstable market factors and volatile precious - metal prices. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading fees, daily price limits, and margin requirements for platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate futures contracts, and restricted the daily opening volume of polysilicon futures contracts to strengthen market risk management [2][3]. 3.2.2 Metals - On December 24, international gold prices hit a record high, breaking through $4500 per ounce, driven by the escalating situation in Venezuela and expectations of further interest - rate cuts in the US next year. Spot platinum exceeded $2300 per ounce, and spot silver reached a historical high of $71.58 per ounce [4][5]. - Copper prices hit a record high, breaking through $12000 per ton, with a cumulative increase of about 37% this year, due to mine shutdowns and trade disruptions caused by Trump's tariff policies. Domestic gold - jewelry prices also rose, with some brands' pure - gold jewelry prices exceeding 1400 yuan per gram [5]. - The tin industry association called for rationality as tin prices deviated from fundamentals. The lithium industry's Q3 performance improved, with rising lithium carbonate futures prices in November. Market inventory decreased, and demand from new - energy vehicles and energy storage was strong [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In November, domestic steel prices fluctuated narrowly, with a significant decline in crude steel production and high social inventory, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. In December, prices continued to fluctuate narrowly due to multiple factors [9]. - China's first million - ton near - zero - carbon steel production line in Zhanjiang was fully connected, using hydrogen metallurgy and electric smelting technology, reducing carbon emissions by 50% - 80% compared with traditional processes [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On December 23, US oil prices rose due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by US actions against Venezuelan oil tankers. As of December 16, crude - oil speculators increased their net short positions in WTI [10][11]. - Serbia extended its natural gas supply agreement with Russia until March 31, 2026, ensuring winter energy supply. Russia attacked Ukrainian oil and gas exploration facilities [11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the pig inventory in the fourth quarter increased by 0.6% year - on - year [12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On December 23, the central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 760 billion yuan as 1353 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank will conduct 2100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders on December 26 [13][14]. 3.3.2 Key News - President Xi Jinping emphasized that central enterprises should focus on their core businesses, enhance core competitiveness, and promote innovation and reform. Premier Li Qiang called on central enterprises to play important roles in infrastructure construction, supply - chain stability, and technological self - reliance [15]. - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference proposed that local governments adjust real - estate policies, and promote the construction of a new real - estate development model, including project - company system, lead - bank system, and spot - housing sales system [16]. - The US FCC included foreign - made drones and components in the "unreliable suppliers list," and China firmly opposed this. The RMB exchange rate strengthened recently, driven by a weakening US dollar and year - end settlement demand [17]. - In 2025, local - government debt issuance exceeded 10 trillion yuan, and local governments plan to issue more bonds in Q1 2026, with an expected scale of over 1 trillion yuan, to support economic growth [18]. - The "AI bond - issuance wave" pushed US corporate bond issuance close to the historical record, with AI - related borrowing accounting for about 30% of US investment - grade bond net issuance [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market strengthened, with 30 - year treasury - bond futures rising nearly 1%. Interest - rate bond yields generally declined, and the inter - bank market funds were abundant. Some corporate bonds, such as those of Vanke, fluctuated, and convertible - bond indexes declined [24][25]. - Most money - market interest rates declined, and the yields of European bonds decreased, while US bond yields showed mixed trends [26][27]. 3.3.4 Foreign - Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 95 points to 7.0287, and the RMB central parity rate rose 49 points to 7.0523. The US dollar index fell 0.37%, and most non - US currencies rose [28]. 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market fluctuated slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.41%. Lithium - battery and lithography - machine sectors strengthened, while tourism stocks declined. Three new stocks had significant gains [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.11%, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.69%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.29%. Gold and wind - power stocks led the rise, while technology stocks were mostly weak. Some new stocks had large price fluctuations [33]. - The new - issue scale of equity funds exceeded 400 billion shares this year, setting a new record. Many public - fund institutions held 2026 strategy meetings to discuss investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, consumption, and innovative drugs [33][34].