1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and show a short - term upward trend due to the impact of the yen's interest rate hike and the recovery of market liquidity [1][3] - Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend, driven by macro - level factors such as the warming macro - environment after the yen's interest rate hike, along with mine - end production cuts [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Gold - **Short - term view**: Strong [1] - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating [1] - **Intraday view**: Oscillating and tending to be strong [1] - **Reference view**: Bullish in the short - term [1][3] - **Core logic**: After the yen's interest rate hike, short - term market liquidity has recovered. Since the China - US summit in Busan at the end of October, market risk appetite has continuously increased, and gold prices have been in a high - level oscillation. Recently, gold prices have broken through upwards [1][3] - **Price performance**: New York gold has reached above $4400 and is approaching $4500, and Shanghai gold has exceeded the 1000 - yuan mark and broken through the high at the end of October [3] 3.2 Copper - **Short - term view**: Strong [1] - **Medium - term view**: Strong [1] - **Intraday view**: Strong [1] - **Reference view**: Bullish in the long - term [1][4] - **Core logic**: At the macro level, the macro - environment has improved after the yen's interest rate hike, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. At the industrial level, high copper prices have suppressed consumption, with the basis and monthly spreads continuously weakening, and the futures price pattern showing near - term weakness and long - term strength. Short - term macro factors have pushed up copper prices, with high capital attention [4] - **Price performance**: Shanghai copper has shown a strong oscillation, with the position volume continuously increasing. At night, it slightly declined from the high, and the position volume slightly decreased. LME copper faces strong resistance at the $12,000 mark [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for股指期货 is that the IH2603 contract will have an interval - shock pattern, with a short - term outlook of shock, a medium - term outlook of shock, and an intraday outlook of being on the stronger side. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the trend of capital inflow [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is interval shock. Although the stock market trading volume is still at a low level in the short term and investors' risk preferences are still divided, in the long run, policy - favorable expectations and the capital inflow trend are positive, so the stock index will maintain an interval - shock pattern in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the IH2603 contract, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is on the stronger side, and the view is interval shock. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and capital inflow trend [1]. 3.2主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is interval shock. Yesterday, all stock indexes fluctuated and rose. The total market trading volume of the stock market was 186.5 billion yuan, an increase of 11.63 billion yuan from the previous day. Policy - favorable expectations for 2026 are fermenting, which drives up the market's risk preference and the willingness of medium - and long - term capital allocation, providing strong support for the stock index. However, the short - term trading volume is still at a low level, indicating that investors' risk preferences are divided, and most are in a wait - and - see state. In the long run, the stock index has strong support [5].

1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-23 品种晨会纪要 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：受困于国内甲醇供应压力不断增大，同时面对国内煤炭期货价格大幅回调的拖累，甲醇 期货反弹受阻，转而重新陷入回调走势。目前港口库存和内陆地区库存小幅回落，但依然处于高位。 同时下游需求改善不足，烯烃盘面利 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "oscillating consolidation" because the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, but there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillating consolidation". The current Treasury bond futures are under pressure and have support, with weak driving forces, so they will maintain an oscillating consolidation. In the short term, the futures will mainly be in an oscillating consolidation state [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weakening | Oscillating consolidation | Low probability of short - term interest rate cut; long - term easing expectations [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS [5] - **Viewpoints**: Intraday view is "weakening", medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillating consolidation" [5] - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. There is pressure above and support below, and the driving force is weak. On the one hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, the monetary policy environment is expected to be loose next year, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still expected. Also, the market's implied expectation of an interest rate cut is weak, so there is strong support for Treasury bond futures. On the other hand, short - term macroeconomic data is resilient, the urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is not strong, and there are few uncertainties in the internal and external environment recently, so there is a lack of upward driving force for Treasury bond futures [5]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡思路 | 多空僵持，焦煤低位震荡 | | | | 偏强 | | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡思路 | 三轮降价落地，焦炭低位运行 | | | | 偏强 | | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume and open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,205 yuan/ton, and the price closed 0.13% lower. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday of this week, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The price reached a high of 2,175 yuan/ton and a low of 2,131 yuan/ton, and finally closed 0.23% lower at 2,155 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 39 yuan/ton. Driven by the slight rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures started to fluctuate and stabilize [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Monday of this week, the 2602 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume and decreasing open interest, fluctuating strongly, and rebounding significantly. The price reached a high of 438.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 428.2 yuan/barrel, and finally closed 2.46% higher at 437.9 yuan/barrel. The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has become prominent again, and the conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, posing a risk of restricted oil exports from Venezuela. The enhanced geopolitical premium has driven the oil price to rebound, and the crude oil futures may stabilize temporarily in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%, and the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production of maintenance enterprises drove the capacity utilization rate, but the overall shipment was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase of the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run weakly and stably this week [9]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, about 100,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - duty truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42%. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. The average operating load of domestic coal - (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 88,400 tons. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 9,500 tons [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the daily average crude oil production in the US was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, remaining at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the US, was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels [13]. - The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of December 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 58,433 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 7,396 contracts and a significant decrease of 6,438 contracts or 9.92% compared with the November average of 64,871 contracts. As of December 16, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 40,988 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 72,871 contracts and a significant decrease of 114,200 contracts or 73.59% compared with the November average of 155,188 contracts [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Futures Main Contract (yuan) | Change from Previous Day (yuan) | Basis (yuan) | Change in Basis (yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 | - 200 | 15,205 | +15 | - 355 | - 15 | | Methanol | 2,155 | +5 | 2,155 | +7 | 0 | - 7 | | Crude Oil | 395.2 | +0.1 | 437.9 | +11.3 | - 42.7 | - 11.2 | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][17] - **Methanol**: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30] - **Crude Oil**: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][41][43]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the weekly data of iron ore arrivals and shipments in the 51st week of 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The domestic arrivals at 47 ports decreased to 27.902 million tons, with a week - on - week drop of 1.379 million tons, showing a decline from the high level. The arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores decreased, while non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores reached a high for the year [2] - Overseas ore shipments decreased again, with the global total at 34.645 million tons, a week - on - week drop of 1.2805 million tons, also declining from the high. The decrease mainly came from major miners, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores were at a high for the year [2] - According to the shipping schedule, the arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ores at domestic ports are expected to be stable, and overseas ore supply is relatively active [2] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Brief Review - Domestic 47 - port arrivals decreased, with Australian and Brazilian ores dropping and non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores increasing. Overseas shipments decreased due to major miners, but non - Australian and non - Brazilian ores remained at a high [2] 2. Ore Arrival and Shipment Data - Arrival data: Northern six - port arrivals were 12.564 million tons, down 102,100 tons week - on - week (-7.52%); 45 - port arrivals were 26.467 million tons, down 76,700 tons (-2.82%); 47 - port arrivals were 27.902 million tons, down 137,900 tons (-4.71%). Among them, Australian ore at 47 ports decreased by 93,800 tons, Brazilian ore by 125,200 tons, and other ores increased by 81,100 tons [3] - Shipment data: Global shipments were 34.645 million tons, down 1.2805 million tons (-3.56%). Australian shipments decreased by 102,010 tons, Brazilian by 48,790 tons, and other regions increased by 22,760 tons. Among major miners, VALE's shipments decreased by 67,610 tons, RIO by 10,490 tons, BHP by 5,630 tons, and FMG by 66,940 tons [3] 3. Related Charts - The report includes charts on domestic port arrivals, global iron ore shipments, shipments of the four major miners, and estimated domestic arrivals of iron ore [4][6][8][10]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 股指震荡上涨，维持牛市价差 核心观点 今日各股指均震荡上涨。股市全市场成交额 18650 亿元，较上日成交 额放量 1163 亿元。2026 年政策面利好预期逐渐发酵，推动市场风险偏好 逐渐回升，中长线资金配置意愿上升，对股指构成强有力支撑。不过短期 内股市成交量能仍处于较低水平，反应投资者风险偏好仍存分歧，以观望 居多。中长期来看，政策面利好预期以及资金净流入趋势保持向好态势， 股指的支撑力量较强。总的来说，短期内股指维持区间震荡。 期权方面，持仓量 PCR 与隐含波动率表现偏中性，可以牛市价差或者 比例价差温和看涨的思路对待。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. Currently, there is pressure above and support below Treasury bond futures, with weak driving forces, so they are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation. On the one hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts still anticipated. Coupled with the weak implied interest rate cut expectations in the current market interest rates, Treasury bond futures have strong support. On the other hand, in the short term, macroeconomic data shows strong resilience, and the urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is not high. Coupled with fewer uncertainties and disturbances in the recent internal and external environment, Treasury bond futures lack upward drivers. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On December 22, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce the latest LPR quotation. The 1-year LPR was reported at 3.0%, the same as last month; the 5-year and above LPR was reported at 3.5%, also the same as last month. Thus, the LPR quotations for both tenors have remained unchanged for 7 consecutive months. On December 22, the central bank conducted 6.73 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, the same as before [6]

期货研究报告 核心观点 上周金价整体呈现震荡上行走势。宏观层面，多空因素交织：一 方面，美元指数在连续调整后触底回升，对以美元计价的黄金构成压 制；另一方面，日本央行加息落地，全球市场流动性预期改善，又为 金价提供了支撑。在此环境下，纽约金价多次尝试上攻每盎司4380美 元关口，但均遇阻回落，与之对应的国内沪金亦在每克 980 元附近面 临明显的技术阻力。这表明当前价位附近多空博弈激烈，市场分歧有 所加大。周五夜盘内外金价均站上阻力位，短期上行动能较强。 拉长周期看，自10月底中美元首在釜山举行会晤以来，全球市场 风险偏好持续回暖，黄金价格整体维持高位震荡格局。目前金价已再 度逼近 10 月末形成的阶段性高点，技术层面压力逐渐显现。后续需 密切关注价格在关键阻力区域的表现，若无法有效突破，短期可能延 续震荡整理态势。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 贵金属 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 22 日 贵金属周报 日元加息落地，市场流动性回升 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0 ...