期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2026 年第 2 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 3015.00 万吨，环比增 190.30 万吨，持续回升并至高位；其中澳矿、巴西矿分 别增 111.60、102.60 万吨，非澳巴矿环比降 23.90 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运持续回落，全球矿石发运总量为 3180.90 万吨，环比减 32.80 万吨，降幅显著收窄。 其中主流矿商增减互现，四大矿商合计减 3.72 万吨，发运有所企稳；细分地区看巴西矿环比减 128.40 万 吨，澳矿则是微降 8.00 万吨，非澳巴矿环比增 103.60 万吨，低位开始回升。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将高位回落，但降幅有限，海外供应维持相对高位。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The multi - short game for copper prices at high levels has intensified. Attention should be paid to the support at the 100,000 - yuan mark. Although the short - term upward momentum of copper prices is strong, they are at a historical high. The pressure on the domestic industrial side contradicts the strong macro expectations, and short - term futures prices may need to oscillate for digestion, waiting for the industry to catch up. The obvious increase in the social inventory of electrolytic copper last week reflects the resistance of downstream industries [5][57]. - **Aluminum**: The multi - short game for aluminum prices at high levels has intensified. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 2021 high. The strong performance of aluminum prices mainly comes from the high copper - aluminum ratio, and the increasing expectation of aluminum substitution for copper provides upward momentum. Short - term aluminum prices are facing technical pressure at the October 2021 high, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - The macro - market atmosphere cooled last week, with global stock indices and commodities showing a high - level decline. The short - term market risk preference decreased, and copper prices also dropped from high levels. Additionally, the continuous rebound of the US dollar index exerted pressure on copper prices, and the multi - short game for LME copper at the 13,000 - dollar mark intensified [10]. 2. Copper - **2.1 Quantity and Price Trends**: Copper prices first rose and then fell last week, generally oscillating above 100,000 yuan. The open interest of SHFE copper remained at a high level, and the multi - short game at high levels intensified [5][57]. - **2.2 Copper Ore Shortage**: Rio Tinto and Glencore have conducted preliminary negotiations on a super - merger. They produce a series of minerals including copper. Rio Tinto was the seventh - largest copper producer in 2024 with a production of 649,720 metric tons, and Glencore was the fourth - largest with a production of about 1 million tons in 2024 [24]. - **2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation**: On January 8, the social inventory of electrolytic copper monitored by Mysteel was 284,700 tons, a weekly increase of 37,600 tons. The inventory of COMEX + LME was 801,400 tons, a weekly increase of 44,200 tons. High copper prices have a suppressive effect on the global industry [26]. - **2.4 Downstream Primary Processing**: In December 2025, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 20.42%, higher than the expected 19.61%, but down 3.42 percentage points month - on - month and 15.92 percentage points year - on - year [28]. 3. Aluminum - **3.1 Quantity and Price Trends**: After the New Year's Day, aluminum prices showed an upward trend with increasing positions, breaking through the 24,000 - yuan mark. The short - term macro - atmosphere dominated the trend of aluminum prices. Since Wednesday, the macro - atmosphere cooled, and the willingness of funds to close positions increased, leading to a decline in aluminum prices from high levels. However, on Friday, aluminum prices were strong again, rising with increasing positions and approaching the previous high [6][57]. - **3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain**: On January 9, the port inventory of bauxite was 25.096 million tons, an increase of 886,000 tons from the previous week and 7.496 million tons higher than the same period in 2024. After the New Year's Day, alumina prices rebounded significantly, which may lead to a decline in the high - level profits of electrolytic aluminum plants [41][42]. - **3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction**: On January 8, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum monitored by Mysteel was 718,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from before the holiday. The overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 506,100 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons from the previous week. The overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory at a low level provided support for aluminum prices [46]. - **3.4 Downstream Primary Processing**: Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased significantly. As aluminum prices rose to the 24,000 - yuan level, downstream industries showed obvious fear of high prices. On January 8, the inventory of aluminum rods was 114,100 tons, an increase of 15,100 tons from the previous week [51][53]. 4. Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the multi - short game situation of copper and aluminum prices at high levels, the influence of macro and industrial factors, and the key technical levels to be concerned about [57].

期货研究报告 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 宝城期货投资咨询部 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 | 周报 · 2026 年 1 月 12 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 金价强势运行 核心观点 上周金价震荡上行，沪金再度站上1000元关口，纽约金站上4500 美元关口。金价再度逼近 12 月高位，短期资金关注度再度上升。 元旦节后，金价重返1000关口。从大类资产走势来看，委内瑞拉 事件后，市场的恐慌情绪并未蔓延，美股道指再创新高，节后市场风 险偏好和流动性依旧较高。而周内宏观氛围有所冷却，前期涨幅较好 的资产普遍回落，这一定程度上使黄金的避险需求上升，给予金价支 撑。技术上，可持续关注 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色普涨 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜高开，主力期价一度逼近 10.4 万关口，随后呈现高位震 荡态势，日内持仓量上升明显，沪铜持仓量已逼近 70 万张。周末归 来，市场宏观氛围依旧较好，日内无论是商品还是股市呈现普涨态 势。产业端，SMM 报道，铜价持续高位运行，对下游采购情绪形成显 著压制出库节奏疲软，国内电解铜社会库存已连续六周累库。 沪铝 今日沪铝冲高回落，持仓量上升明显。周一宏观氛围较好，有色 板块普涨，但铝日内表现较 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term and mid - term outlooks are both "oscillation", the intraday outlook is "weak", and the overall view is "oscillation and consolidation" due to the low probability of short - term interest rate cuts and the existence of long - term easing expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "weak", the mid - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The short - term interest rate cut possibility decreases due to positive macro - economic expectations, which puts pressure on bond futures prices. However, the downside space is limited. In the long - term, there is still support for bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - The time - cycle definitions are: short - term is within a week, and mid - term is from two weeks to one month. The TL2603 variety is expected to be in an oscillatory state in the short and mid - term, with a weak intraday trend, mainly due to the low short - term probability of interest rate cuts and long - term easing expectations [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - Last Friday, bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back. The December inflation data showed that CPI rose moderately and PPI's decline narrowed, and the December manufacturing PMI was resilient. These positive macro - economic expectations reduced the short - term possibility of interest rate cuts, putting pressure on bond futures prices. But as the prices of bond spot fell, the implied interest rate cut expectations in bond yields faded, limiting the downside space. In the long - term, the need for a loose monetary and credit environment to address insufficient effective domestic demand provides support for bond futures, so it is expected to be in an oscillatory and consolidating state in the short - term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] - Geopolitical risks boost the market, and the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market is gradually weakening, leading to a strong rebound in crude oil futures prices last Friday and an expected oscillatory and strong trend for domestic crude oil futures on Monday [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - For crude oil 2602, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is strong, with an overall reference view of strong operation [1] 3.2 Core Logic - The US President Trump frequently releases geopolitical risk signals, with Greenland and Mexico potentially becoming targets, and the US threatening a new round of military strikes on Iran, intensifying Middle - East geopolitical risks [5] - The re - strengthening of crude oil premium weakens the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market, supporting the strong rebound of crude oil futures prices last Friday and the expected strong trend on Monday [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多情绪消化，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消散， 利多驱动减弱。不过目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降， 而东南亚仍处于割胶旺季。同时胶市下游国内汽车产销数据偏乐观，12 月重卡销量数据好于预期。 随着前期利多因素逐渐消化，上周五夜盘国内沪胶期货维持震荡偏弱的走势。预计本周一国内沪胶 期货或维持震荡偏弱的走势。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the gold 2602 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly bullish, and the reference view is to wait and see due to the cooling macro - atmosphere and the rising short - term hedging demand [1][3] - For the copper 2602 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly bearish, and the reference view is long - term bullish as the cooling macro - atmosphere makes short - term bulls more willing to close their positions [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - Last week, the gold price oscillated upwards. Shanghai gold reached above 1000 yuan again, and New York gold reached above 4500 US dollars. The cooling macro - atmosphere increased the hedging demand for gold, providing support for the price. Technically, attention can be paid to the support at 1000 yuan for Shanghai gold and 4500 US dollars for New York gold [3] Copper (CU) - After the New Year's Day holiday, the copper price rose first and then fell, generally running above 100,000 yuan. The short - term macro - atmosphere dominated the copper price trend. Since Wednesday, the cooling macro - atmosphere made funds more willing to close positions, leading to the decline of the copper price from its high. At the industrial level, as the copper price rose above 100,000 yuan, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper increased significantly, reflecting the industry's resistance to high copper prices. In the short term, the divergence between bulls and bears intensified, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Attention can be paid to the support at 100,000 yuan [4]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 供应扰动仍存，焦煤低位反弹 | | | | 震荡 | | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 成本支撑改善，焦炭低位反弹 | | | | 震荡 | | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot price of thermal coal is expected to fluctuate, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views all being "oscillation". The core logic is that in the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices showed a slight upward trend. The marginal recovery of coal production is limited, and the supply contraction expectation is enhanced due to the approaching Spring Festival. Meanwhile, the coal demand in coastal cities has improved, and the inventory in Bohai Rim ports has decreased week - on - week, leading to an improvement in the supply - demand pattern and a slight upward price [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Price and View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The core logic is the improvement of power coal demand and a slight increase in port coal prices [1]. Price Driving Logic - In the first week of 2026, domestic thermal coal prices maintained a slight upward trend. Coal production has a limited marginal recovery, and the supply contraction expectation is strengthened as the Spring Festival approaches. The decrease in domestic temperature has accelerated the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities. As of January 8, the total coal inventory in 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 26.713 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.614 million tons and 1.781 million tons higher than the same period last year. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and prices have stopped falling and risen slightly [5].