投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.39%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，淡季基本面并未改善，钢价仍易承压，相 对利好的是成本支撑与政策预期，预期现实博弈下螺纹维持震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.28%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热轧卷板供需两端均大幅走弱，产业格局并未好转，库存高位去化 有限，价格继续承压，相对利好的是政 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the macro environment improved, and copper prices rose with increasing positions. Last week, copper prices first declined and then rebounded, with the trading volume increasing as prices rose. High copper prices have suppressed consumption, leading to a continuous weakening of the basis and monthly spreads, with a clear pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in futures prices. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at $0/ton and $0/lb. In the short term, macro factors are driving copper prices up, with strong upward momentum, and the industry is following passively. Keep an eye on the pressure at the $12,000 mark for LME copper and the RMB 95,000 mark for SHFE copper. [5] - Aluminum: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the macro environment improved, and aluminum prices rose with increasing positions. Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, similar to copper. After the interest rate hike on Friday, the market sentiment improved, and aluminum prices increased with positions, recovering the losses of the week. As aluminum prices rise, downstream sentiment is turning more cautious. The substitution of aluminum for copper in the home appliance industry is expected to increase, giving a strong consumption outlook for aluminum, which may also make long - term aluminum prices stronger than near - term ones. Technically, keep an eye on the high - level pressure in early December. [6] Group 3: Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1 Macro Factors - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike last Friday, it was a relief for the US dollar, and short - term market liquidity increased. The US dollar index and copper prices rebounded simultaneously. [10] 2 Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first declined and then rebounded, and the trading volume increased as prices rose. High copper prices have suppressed consumption, leading to a continuous weakening of the basis and monthly spreads, with a clear pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in futures prices. [5] 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, copper ore port inventories continued to rise from a low level and were approaching the same level as previous years. On December 19, Mysteel's copper ore port inventory was 680,000 tons, a weekly increase of 16,000 tons. The short - term increase in port inventories has slowed down, and the overall level is still at a low level compared to previous years. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at $0/ton and $0/lb. [25] 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 18, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 174,500 tons, a weekly increase of 3,300 tons, and the COMEX + LME inventory was 623,800 tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons. Short - term copper price increases have significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventories. However, there has been a clear divergence in domestic and overseas inventories since December, which may be due to stronger domestic industrial demand and overseas weakness, or may be digested through exports. [27] 2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper products rebounded month - on - month, indicating that downstream acceptance increased after copper prices reached a high and then declined in November. As copper prices broke through upwards at the end of November, it is expected that downstream sentiment will turn more cautious again, and the capacity utilization rate in December may decline significantly. SMM predicts that the total output of the copper rod industry in December will decrease by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of the operating rate, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points. [29] 3 Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, similar to copper. After the interest rate hike on Friday, the market sentiment improved, and aluminum prices increased with positions, recovering the losses of the week. As aluminum prices rise, downstream sentiment is turning more cautious, and the spot discounts of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum remain weak. [6] 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 12, the aluminum ore port inventory was 26.08 million tons, a decrease of 355,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.69 million tons compared to the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina showed signs of stabilizing after fluctuations but remained weak overall. The improvement in the macro environment has stabilized it, but the weak industrial fundamentals have led to its weak performance. The strong aluminum prices and weak alumina prices have widened the profit margins of electrolytic aluminum plants. [44][45] 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 18, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 561,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 526,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons from the previous week. Global electrolytic aluminum inventories are in a state of slow reduction at a low level, which provides strong industrial support for aluminum prices. [48] 3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods increased, indicating a recovery in downstream demand and a strong willingness of the downstream industry to replenish inventories at a low level. On December 18, the aluminum rod inventory was 100,700 tons, an increase of 14,200 tons from the previous week. The slight increase in aluminum rod inventory last week corresponded to the increase in processing fees, as aluminum rod production enterprises replenished inventories at a low price. [52][54] 4 Conclusion - Copper: Last week, copper prices first declined and then rebounded, and the trading volume increased as prices rose. In the short term, macro factors are driving copper prices up, with strong upward momentum, and the industry is following passively. Keep an eye on the pressure at the $12,000 mark for LME copper and the RMB 95,000 mark for SHFE copper. - Aluminum: Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, similar to copper. The substitution of aluminum for copper in the home appliance industry is expected to increase, giving a strong consumption outlook for aluminum, which may also make long - term aluminum prices stronger than near - term ones. Technically, keep an eye on the high - level pressure in early December. [58]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产 量合计 109.49 万吨，周环比降 1.1 万吨；全国 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 226.55 万吨，周环比下降 2.65 万吨，钢厂盈利率周环比持平，维持 35.93%的水平，大部分钢厂仍处亏损状态，焦炭短期需求压力仍存。整体 来看，焦炭供需格局未明显改善，但下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期驱动 焦炭期货止跌反弹，关注后续钢厂补库节奏。 焦煤：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 75.8 万 吨，环比增 0.8 万吨，同比降 4.1 万吨；下游焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量 合计 109.49 万吨，周环比降 1.1 万吨，减量主要集中在独立焦化厂。因 原材料焦煤价格上涨，独立焦化厂吨焦盈利走低，生产积极性下滑。整体 来看，焦煤供应端压力阶段性释放，随着下游冬储补库预期和反内卷预期 扰动再现，市场情绪由弱转强，焦煤主力合约低位 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Shanghai Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, with the main contract price breaking through the 94,000 RMB mark, and LME copper approaching the $12,000 mark. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, market risk appetite and liquidity have recovered. Industrially, downstream buyers are hesitant. China's copper smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/lb. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $12,000 mark for LME copper [6]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: On Friday night, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, and on Monday, it fluctuated within a narrow range. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, market risk appetite rebounded, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. Industrially, the basis and calendar spread remained weak, and the industrial side had strong constraints. In the short term, attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the 22,400 RMB mark [7]. - **Shanghai Nickel**: On Friday night, Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a high level, with the open interest continuously rising. On Monday, Shanghai nickel significantly increased in volume and price, and the main contract price rose at the end of the session, breaking through the 120,000 RMB mark. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, non - ferrous metals generally rose, and nickel showed signs of a rebound from oversold conditions. Industrially, the spot premium continued to strengthen, providing support for the nickel price. In the short term, Shanghai nickel has changed from a short - covering rebound to a long - adding rebound, breaking through the high in early December, with strong upward momentum. In case of a short - term correction, attention can be paid to the support at the 120,000 RMB mark [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: China's smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/lb, compared with $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/lb in 2025. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the second batch of enterprises meeting the standards for waste copper and aluminum processing and utilization, with 26 enterprises on the list. The total number of enterprises meeting the standards in two batches is 53, covering 12 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. The total production capacity of these enterprises is about 8 million tons, including 500,000 tons for waste copper processing and distribution, 4 million tons for waste aluminum processing and distribution, and 3.5 million tons for direct recycling of recycled copper [10]. - **Aluminum**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 9.76% and a year - on - year increase of 22.50%. From January to November 2025, China cumulatively imported 187 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 29.61%. In November 2025, China imported 10.707 million tons of Guinea bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 19.00% and a year - on - year increase of 34.08%. From January to November 2025, China cumulatively imported 138 million tons of Guinea bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 38.25% [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum calendar spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum bar inventory, etc. [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel calendar spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [34][36][38]

ᵕ䍝⹊ガᣛ ᣋ䍺䈘ѐࣗ䍺Ṳφ䇷ⴇ䇮ਥɋ2011Ɍ1778ਭ ᇓคᵕ䍝〃ྍᮦᦤᰛᣛδ2025ᒪ 12ᴾ 22ᰛε | | ֌ս | Ԉԃ䑘ͧҫ | ⩰ͨ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ߊޙ | ׂٛ | ߃ ߃ | ߃ ߃ | ߃ ߃ | | 2025/12/19 | -98.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/18 | -90.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/17 | -83.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/16 | -74.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/15 | -64.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 1 ᶣᐔᐸ≸ᱥ䐥8ਭݹޢཝড়ђ㼏ᾲ1-5ቸ ➚࣑ࣞжȽ ᵕ䍝⹊ガᣛ | | ֌ս | ਈ࢛͹ׂٛͧҫ⩰ͨ | џࡁ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ߊޙ | /4 + ࡝Խ | ࡝މࣆ | 㿿ற ࡝Խ | | 2025/12/19 | -1.47 | 88.52 | 0 ...

期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | | | 5月-1月 | | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/12/19 | -98 . | 4 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 0 . | | 2025/12/18 | -90 . | 4 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 0 . | | 2025/12/17 | -83 . | 4 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 0 . | | 2025/12/16 | -74 . | 4 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 0 . | | 2025/12/15 | -64 . | 4 | 0 | 0 . | 0 | 0 . | 0 0 . | www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall operation of China's commodity market in 2025 was stable, with obvious characteristics of new and old kinetic energy conversion. The average value of the China Commodity Price Index was expected to be 112.1 points, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [4]. - The Chinese bond market showed a positive trend, with the yields of interest - rate bonds declining. The year - end bond market might continue to fluctuate, and the market was cautious about the overall space of the bond market next year [26]. - A - share market entered a critical window for cross - year layout, and structural opportunities would focus on the tracks where policy orientation and industrial prosperity resonated, with the subsequent spring market worth looking forward to [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% but higher than the same period last year's 4.6% [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing a certain decline [1]. - Social financing scale in November 2025 increased compared to the same period last year, and M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of lithium carbonate futures contracts [2]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures [2]. - Shanghai International Energy Trading Center planned to revise the standard contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce launched a final review investigation on anti - dumping measures for imported ethylene - propylene - diene monomer rubber from the US, South Korea, and the EU [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Platinum prices soared in 2025, with a year - to - date increase of over 110%, far exceeding that of gold [6]. - Gold and silver prices rose under the new round of interest - rate cuts, with silver prices increasing by over 130% this year [6]. - There was an obvious surplus of refined copper in the first ten months of 2025 [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures [2][9]. - China's steel consumption in 2025 was expected to be 8.08 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%, and the global steel consumption was expected to be 17.19 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [9]. - Indonesia proposed to significantly reduce nickel ore production in 2026 [11]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Bohai Oilfield's cumulative production of oil and gas equivalent in 2025 exceeded 40 million tons, reaching a record high [12]. - China's energy key projects in 2025 were expected to complete an investment of 3.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11% [12]. - The price of polysilicon increased, but there was a situation of "high price but no market" [13]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Manzhouli Port achieved a "zero breakthrough" in importing Russian agricultural products [15]. - The Philippines extended the import ban on sugar until December 2026 [15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 4575 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market were due, along with 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits and 3000 billion yuan of MLF [16]. - On December 19, the central bank conducted 562 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchases, with a net investment of 357 billion yuan on that day [16][17]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - The market generally expected that the LPR in December would remain stable [18]. - The State Council Executive Meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference [18]. - The General Administration of Market Regulation revised the "Regulations on Prohibiting Monopoly Agreements" [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The yields of interest - rate bonds in the Chinese bond market declined, and the 30 - year active bond "25 Super Long Special Treasury Bond 06" performed prominently [26]. - Most of Vanke's bonds rose in the exchange bond market [26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.041 on December 22, up 9 basis points from the previous trading day [30]. - The US dollar index rose 0.28% in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [30]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believed that the factors driving the RMB appreciation were increasing, and investors should adapt to asset allocation in a RMB - appreciating environment [32]. - CITIC Securities thought that Japan's benign inflation cycle was stable, and the Bank of Japan was about to raise interest rates again [32]. - CITIC Construction Investment considered that the concentrated release of pessimistic sentiment at the end of the year brought potential space for financial bonds [32]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - A - share market was in a high - level oscillation state near the end of the year, and the Shanghai Composite Index turned positive last week [36]. - As of December 19, the net inflow of subscription and redemption funds of CSI A500 exceeded that of CSI 300 in December, with the net inflow scale exceeding 46 billion yuan [36]. - By December 18, more than 454 listed companies had received institutional research in December, and the hard - tech track became the main focus [37].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑：近期豆粕市场近强远弱、外弱内稳。国内豆粕库存虽处高位但已开始去化，现货压力有所 缓解。然而，远期合约面临巨大压力。一方面，国内进口大豆库存高企，油厂开机率维持高位；另一 方面，市场对一季度后南美大豆集中到港的预期强烈，远期供应压力不断强化。这导致市场呈现"近 强远弱"的结构，短期价格在成本支撑与供应压力下维持震荡偏弱运行，但中长期受制于全球丰产格 局，面临承压下行走势。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is that it is under pressure but also supported, showing a range - bound trend. The medium - term view is oscillatory. The intraday view is bullish. The reference view is range - bound [1][5] - Policy support leads to strong expectations for the macro - economy in 2026, and as policy expectations ferment, market risk appetite will gradually recover. When the stock index falls to the lower edge of the oscillation range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate increases, providing strong support. However, there is insufficient motivation for policy to continue to increase this year, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year. There is still a wait - and - see sentiment in the capital market in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the policy support expectation and the net inflow trend of funds remain unchanged [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes rebounded slightly last Friday. With policy support, there are strong expectations for the macro - economy in 2026. As policy expectations ferment, market risk appetite will recover. When the stock index falls to the lower edge of the oscillation range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate increases, providing support. But there is insufficient motivation for policy to increase this year, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year. There is still a wait - and - see sentiment in the capital market in the short term [5]

Core Insights - The report indicates a strong short-term outlook for crude oil, driven by increased geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, overshadowing the negative impact of supply surplus in the oil futures market [5]. Summary by Sections Short-term Outlook - The short-term outlook for crude oil is characterized as "震荡" (fluctuating) with a strong bias, suggesting a potential for price increases due to geopolitical tensions [5]. Medium-term Outlook - The medium-term perspective remains "震荡" (fluctuating), indicating that while there may be volatility, the overall trend is not expected to change significantly in the near future [5]. Daily Perspective - The daily viewpoint is described as "偏强" (slightly strong), reflecting a positive sentiment in the market for crude oil prices, which are expected to maintain a strong performance [5]. Key Drivers - The core logic driving the current market sentiment includes renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly Israel's concerns over Iran's military expansion, which has heightened risks in the region. This has led to a rebound in domestic crude oil futures prices, despite ongoing supply pressures and accumulating global oil inventories [5].