投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价延续震荡 | 观点参考 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 假期临近套利资金离场，品种强弱有所切换，且螺纹钢供需格局有所改善，螺纹周产环比下 降，供应延续收缩，但旺季减产力度存疑，且库存相对偏高，利好效应不强。与此同时，螺纹钢需 求边际改善，高频指标低位回升，但仍是同期低位，且下游行业未好 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that Treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term, with both upward and downward pressures. There is potential for medium - to long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of an immediate full - scale rate cut is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "sideways - bullish", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is that there are still medium - to long - term expectations of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term full - scale rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "sideways - bullish", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". - The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. Although the September LPR remained unchanged, there is still potential for medium - to long - term interest rate cuts. The weak credit data in August, the marginal slowdown in consumption growth, and the weak inflation data have increased the expectation of macro - policies to stabilize demand in the fourth quarter. With the Fed's rate cut in September and two more expected cuts this year, there is still an expectation of monetary easing in the future, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium - to long - term. - However, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. Firstly, there is no high need for an immediate full - scale rate cut, which needs to be coordinated with fiscal policies. Secondly, the stock - bond seesaw effect suppresses the demand for Treasury bonds [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。随着近日美联储 9 月降息预期兑现以后，本周一夜盘国内甲醇期 货 2601 合约维持震荡偏弱的走势，期价略微收低 0.17%至 2349 元/吨。预计本 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 补库利好趋弱，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化，钢厂生产平稳，矿石终端消耗维持高位，需求表现尚可，给予矿价支 撑，但下游钢市矛盾在累积，且补库利好趋弱，需求韧性将转弱。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅增加， 海外矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应依旧偏高，叠加内矿供应也在恢复，供应压力有所增加。目前 来看， ...

策略参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：近期有关于中美贸易关系前景的任何消息都成为市场情绪的助推剂。国内豆类产业链依然疲弱， 油厂胀库压力依然存在，豆粕负基差格局持续。关注双节前下游备货节奏和中美贸易进展，以及进口买船 节奏的变化。短期豆粕期价仍将偏弱运行。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the long - term outlook is strong, with a short - term upward trend, a medium - term upward trend, and an intraday oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. For copper, the short - term view is strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly stronger [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, Shanghai gold increased in price with significant position - building. The main contract price rose nearly 10 yuan/gram during the day, remained strong at night, reaching the 850 - yuan mark. New York gold approached 3800 dollars, and London gold approached 3750 dollars [3] - **Driving Logic**: After the Fed's September interest rate cut, the closing of long positions on Friday came to an end. The US dollar index declined, and the gold price broke through the previous high, showing an accelerating upward trend in the short term. The medium - and long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term support can be observed at the 5 - and 10 - day moving averages [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, the copper price first declined and then rose, and the position of Shanghai copper continued to decline, indicating reduced capital attention [4] - **Driving Logic**: At the macro level, after the Fed's interest rate cut, the closing of long positions on Friday ended, and the resurgence of the upward trend in gold and silver is expected to drive up the copper price. At the industrial level, due to the high - level decline in copper prices and the industrial peak season, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory has increased, and the accumulation of electrolytic copper slowed down on Monday. After the short - term interest rate meeting, macro disturbances decreased and industrial influence increased, resulting in a relatively weak overall copper price trend. Attention should be paid to the domestic inventory situation, and technically, the 80,000 - yuan technical support level should be monitored [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-09-23 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2511 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 核心逻辑：近日美联储如期降息 25 个基点，符合市场预期，不过点 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating [1][5] - The core logic is the game between the short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and the long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking willingness of funds and long - and medium - term policy positive expectation fermentation [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation [5] - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The full - day trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 214.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.69 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - The LPR interest rate in September remained unchanged, and the central bank made a net investment in the open market, indicating that the central bank kept the market liquidity stable before the long holiday [5] - There are certain differences in market sentiment. On one hand, there is still a demand for profit - taking of profitable funds; on the other hand, policy positive expectations and the inflow trend of funds constitute the long - and medium - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index [5] - In terms of policy, the credit and inflation data in August were weak, and the consumption growth rate slowed down, indicating weak demand from the real sector. There is a strong expectation of introducing policies to stabilize demand in October, and policy positive expectations are gradually fermenting [5] - In terms of funds, there is a sign that residents' deposits are changing to non - bank deposits, indicating a change in investors' wealth allocation direction. Coupled with the high - level operation of the margin trading balance, it shows that the stock market continues to attract incremental funds [5] - In the future, focus on the game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations [5]

Group 1: Core Viewpoints - Domestic arrivals at 47 ports reached 27.504 million tons, a significant rebound from the low, with arrivals from Australia, Brazil, and non - Australia - Brazil regions increasing by 2.744 million tons, 0.431 million tons, and 0.406 million tons respectively. Overseas ore shipments declined from the high, with the global total at 33.248 million tons, a decrease of 2.483 million tons week - on - week, but still at a high level for the year. The decrease was mainly due to Australian ore, and the continuous decline of the three major Australian miners' shipments was questionable. Shipments from Brazil and other regions were weakly stable. According to the shipping schedule, the arrivals of Australian and Brazilian ore at domestic ports will rise and then fall, while the overall overseas ore supply will continue to increase [2]. Group 2: Ore Arrival and Shipment Data Arrival Data - Northern six ports: The arrival volume was 12.902 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.452 million tons (3.63%), a month - on - month decrease of 0.107 million tons (- 0.82%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.255 million tons (2.02%) [3]. - National 45 ports: The arrival volume was 26.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.127 million tons (13.24%), a month - on - month increase of 1.49 million tons (5.90%), and a year - on - year increase of 3.331 million tons (14.22%) [3]. - National 47 ports: The arrival volume was 27.504 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.581 million tons (14.97%), a month - on - month increase of 1.054 million tons (3.98%), and a year - on - year increase of 2.273 million tons (9.01%) [3]. - National 47 ports - Australian ore: The arrival volume was 17.945 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.744 million tons (18.05%), a month - on - month increase of 2.857 million tons (18.94%), and a year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons (6.46%) [3]. - National 47 ports - Brazilian ore: The arrival volume was 6.136 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.431 million tons (7.55%), a month - on - month decrease of 1.004 million tons (- 14.06%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.706 million tons (13.00%) [3]. - National 47 ports - Other ore: The arrival volume was 3.423 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.406 million tons (13.46%), a month - on - month decrease of 0.799 million tons (- 18.92%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.478 million tons (16.23%) [3]. Shipment Data - Australian shipments (original caliber): The shipment volume was 16.468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.901 million tons (- 10.35%), a month - on - month increase of 0.059 million tons (0.36%), and a year - on - year decrease of 1.152 million tons (- 6.54%) [3]. - Australian shipments to China: The shipment volume was 14.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.781 million tons (- 11.19%), a month - on - month increase of 0.337 million tons (2.44%), and a year - on - year decrease of 0.397 million tons (- 2.73%) [3]. - Brazilian shipments (original caliber): The shipment volume was 7.998 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.092 million tons (1.16%), a month - on - month decrease of 1.743 million tons (- 17.89%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.844 million tons (11.80%) [3]. - Global 19 ports: The total shipment volume was 33.248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.483 million tons (- 6.95%), a month - on - month decrease of 2.3197 million tons (- 6.52%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.5088 million tons (1.55%) [3]. - Australian shipments in global 19 ports: The shipment volume was 19.188 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.658 million tons (- 7.95%), a month - on - month increase of 0.2421 million tons (1.28%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.2421 million tons (1.28%) [3]. - Brazilian shipments in global 19 ports: The shipment volume was 8.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.392 million tons (- 4.39%), a month - on - month decrease of 1.5355 million tons (- 15.24%), and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5355 million tons (- 15.24%) [3]. - Other shipments in global 19 ports: The shipment volume was 5.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.433 million tons (- 7.27%), a month - on - month decrease of 1.0263 million tons (- 15.68%), and a year - on - year decrease of 1.0263 million tons (- 15.68%) [3]. Major Miners' Shipment Data - VALE: The shipment volume was 6.896 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7839 million tons (12.82%), a month - on - month decrease of 1.1405 million tons (- 14.19%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.9848 million tons (16.66%) [3]. - RIO: The shipment volume was 6.579 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6653 million tons (- 9.18%), a month - on - month increase of 0.4688 million tons (7.67%), and a year - on - year decrease of 0.8489 million tons (- 11.43%) [3]. - RIO shipments to China: The shipment volume was 4.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.462 million tons (- 22.94%), a month - on - month increase of 0.189 million tons (4.00%), and a year - on - year decrease of 1.018 million tons (- 17.17%) [3]. - BHP: The shipment volume was 5.175 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.583 million tons (- 10.12%), a month - on - month decrease of 0.0524 million tons (- 1.00%), and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1053 million tons (- 1.99%) [3]. - BHP shipments to China: The shipment volume was 4.517 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0281 million tons (- 5.86%), a month - on - month increase of 0.043 million tons (0.96%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.197 million tons (4.56%) [3]. - FMG: The shipment volume was 3.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5228 million tons (- 11.77%), a month - on - month decrease of 0.4301 million tons (- 9.89%), and a year - on - year decrease of 0.1317 million tons (- 3.25%) [3]. - FMG shipments to China: The shipment volume was 3.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.061 million tons (- 1.53%), a month - on - month increase of 0.033 million tons (0.85%), and a year - on - year increase of 0.491 million tons (14.32%) [3]. Group 3: Related Charts - The report includes charts on domestic port arrival volumes, global iron ore shipment volumes, shipment volumes of the four major miners, and estimated domestic arrival volumes of iron ore [5][6][8][10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the gold price showed a high - level oscillation pattern with an increasing amplitude. Before the release of the September FOMC meeting results, the gold price continued to decline as the early long - position holders had a strong willingness to close their positions. After the results were announced, the market briefly plunged and then stabilized. On Friday, the gold price stabilized and rebounded, and the New York gold price reached above $3,700 again [3][24]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points this time. The dot - plot showed that most officials expected another 50 - basis - point rate cut (i.e., possibly two more 25 - basis - point cuts) by the end of 2025, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chair Powell called this rate cut a "risk - management decision", indicating that the Fed prefers preventive measures to support the economy and employment when balancing the risks of economic slowdown, weak employment market, and inflation [3][24]. - In the short - term, the capital market showed a reverse trend after the good news was realized. The US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, the gold price rose and then fell, and the US stocks oscillated at a high level. The gold market had fully priced in three rate cuts within the year in early September with a significant increase, so the short - term long - position holders had a strong willingness to close their positions. On Friday, the closing of long positions ended, and the gold price stabilized and rebounded. The medium - and long - term upward trend remained unchanged. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [3][24]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage between the US dollar index and the gold price, but specific trend descriptions are not provided in this part [7]. 1.2 Indicator Fluctuations - From September 12th to September 19th, COMEX gold rose by 1.05% from $3,680.70 to $3,719.40, COMEX silver rose by 1.60% from $42.68 to $43.37, SHFE gold主力 fell by 0.44% from 834.22 to 830.56, SHFE silver主力 fell by 0.64% from 10,035.00 to 9,971.00, the US dollar index rose by 0.04% from 97.62 to 97.65, the US dollar against the offshore RMB fell by 0.07% from 7.13 to 7.12, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield rose by 0.05 from 1.70 to 1.75, the S&P 500 rose by 1.22% from 6,584.29 to 6,664.36, and the US crude oil continuous rose by 0.19% from $62.60 to $62.72. The COMEX gold - silver ratio fell by 0.54% from 86.24 to 85.77, and the SHFE gold - silver ratio rose by 0.20% from 83.13 to 83.30. The SPDR gold ETF increased by 19.76 from 974.80 to 994.56, and the iShare gold ETF increased by 9.66 from 464.81 to 474.47 [8]. 2. Interest Rate Cut and High - Level Oscillation of Gold Price - After the Fed's FOMC meeting, the market showed a reverse trend after the good news was realized. The gold price fell from a high level as short - term long - position holders had a strong willingness to close their positions. The US dollar index and the US Treasury yield bottomed out and rebounded, and the US stocks oscillated at a high level. On Friday, the gold price began to stabilize and rebound, and the New York gold price reached above $3,700 again. The short - term closing of long positions ended, and the medium - and long - term upward trend of the gold price remained unchanged. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the previous high [10]. - The US stock market as a whole did not react significantly to the Fed's rate cut. It only oscillated and adjusted at a high level before the rate cut and continued to oscillate upward after the rate cut [12]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - According to the data on September 16th, compared with the previous week, the long - position change was 1,903 contracts, the short - position change was - 2,767 contracts, and the net long - position change was 4,670 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the precious - metal price trend than the gold ETF but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [14]. - Last week, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly. The gold price oscillated at a high level, the silver price was relatively strong, and the gold - silver ratio oscillated downward. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded significantly, and the 10 - 2 yield spread widened. As the Fed started to cut interest rates, the market's expectations for the US economy improved [16][19][20]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion part reiterates the core viewpoints of the report, including the high - level oscillation of the gold price last week, the Fed's rate - cut situation, the short - term reverse trend in the capital market, and the medium - and long - term upward trend of the gold price remaining unchanged [24].