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宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2026年1月13日)-20260113
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 02:26
Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The USDA's January supply and demand report had an unexpectedly bearish impact on the soybean market, causing a significant drop in US soybean futures prices and potentially dragging down domestic soybean futures prices. The overall short - term soybean futures prices have weakened due to the lower import cost support [5][6]. - The palm oil market is in a game between potential policy benefits from Indonesia and the high inventory pressure in Malaysia. The short - term palm oil futures price rebound is approaching the upper limit of the range, and the price may fluctuate repeatedly [7]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weak; Reference view: weak [5]. - **Core Logic**: The USDA raised the US 2025/26 soybean production forecast, lowered the US soybean export forecast, and raised the US soybean inventory. It also raised the Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts, leading to an increase in the global soybean ending inventory forecast. These factors put pressure on US soybean futures prices and may drag down domestic soybean futures prices [5][6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The strong palm oil export data in early January in Malaysia effectively offset the neutral impact of the MPOB December report. The market is in a game between the potential policy benefits from Indonesia and the high inventory pressure in Malaysia, and the futures price is approaching the upper limit of the range and may fluctuate [7].
宝城期货股指期货早报(2026年1月13日)-20260113
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 02:26
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报(2026 年 1 月 13 日) ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注: 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种:IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点:偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:震荡偏强 核心逻辑:昨日各股指均震荡上涨,其中 IM 与 IC 涨幅较大。沪深京三市成交额 36445 亿元,较上 日成交额放量 4922 亿元。由于股指已经突破前期的震荡区间上沿,后续股指大概率保持相对强势。 目前股市成交金额大幅放量,融资买入金额保持高位,说明投资者风险偏好较为乐观。不过目前股市 反弹主要来自于估值端的提升,特别是受益于扶持科技创新政策利好以及杠杆资金偏好的 ...
宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2026年1月13日)-20260113
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 02:18
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 升 | 宏观氛围冷却,短期避险需求上 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 宏观氛围冷却,短期多头了结意 上升 | 说明: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘价为终点价格, 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 宝城期货贵金属有色早报(2026 年 1 月 13 日) 品种:黄金(AU) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:强势 参考观点:观望 核心逻辑:昨日金价强势运行,纽约金触及 4600 美元关口 ...
资讯早班车-2026-01-13-20260113
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 02:00
一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-20 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.8 | 5.2 | 4.6 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2025-12-15 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 24888 | 25660 | 23288 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M0:同比 | % | 10.6 | 11.7 | 12.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.0 | -0.7 | | 2025-12-12 | 2025/11 | M2:同比 | % | 8.0 ...
宝城期货品种套利数据日报(2026年1月13日)-20260113
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-13 01:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Report Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 13, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Thermal Coal - Basis data from January 6 to January 12, 2026, shows values ranging from - 113 to - 101 yuan/ton [2]. - No significant changes in the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads during this period [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are presented, with values like - 45.85 for INE crude oil on January 12 [7]. Chemical Commodities - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from January 6 to January 12, 2026, show fluctuations. For example, rubber basis was - 430 yuan/ton on January 12 [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are provided. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread for LLDPE is 240 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are given. The LLDPE - PVC spread was 1866 yuan/ton on January 12 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are shown. For example, the rebar basis was 165 yuan/ton on January 12 [21]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The 5 - 1 month spread for rebar is 26 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are provided. The rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.84 on January 12 [20]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are given. Copper basis was - 800 yuan/ton on January 12 [30]. London Market - LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 12, 2026, are presented. The LME spread for copper is 64.31 [33]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are shown. The soybean No.1 basis was - 276 yuan/ton on January 12 [38]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are provided. The 5 - 1 month spread for soybeans No.1 is 16 yuan/ton [38]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch on January 12, 2026, are given. The soybean oil/soybean meal ratio is 2.86 [38]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 6 to January 12, 2026, are presented. The CSI 300 basis was 15.92 on January 12 [49]. - Inter - period spreads for the next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. The next - month - current - month spread for CSI 300 is - 78 [49].
股市风险偏好上升,股指持续上涨
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 11:03
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 期货研究报告 股市风险偏好上升,股指持续上涨 今日各股指均震荡上涨,其中中证 1000 与中证 500 涨幅较大。沪深京 三市成交额 36445 亿元,较上日成交额放量 4922 亿元。由于股指已经突破 前期的震荡区间上沿,后续股指大概率保持相对强势。目前股市成交金额大 幅放量,融资买入金额保持高位,说明投资者风险偏好较为乐观。不过目前 股市反弹主要来自于估值端的提升,特别是受益于扶持科技创新政策利好 以及杠杆资金偏好的科技股票涨幅较大,大小盘指数表现有所分化。总的来 说政策面利好预期以及资金净流入股市趋势共同构成股指上行的主要逻 辑,预计短期内股指震荡偏强运行。 期权方面,目前持仓量 PCR 与隐含波动率均有所回升,可以牛市价差 的思路对待。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 核心观点 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明:本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书,期货投资咨询资格 ...
乐观氛围延续,煤焦偏强运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 10:03
投资咨询证号:Z0011688 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观氛围延续,煤焦偏强运行 核心观点 焦炭:截至 1 月 9 日当周,样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合 计 110.45 万吨,周环比增 0.9 万吨;下游 247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 229.5 万吨,周环比增 2.07 万吨。本周,下游钢厂逐渐复产,但复产速 度偏缓,焦炭基本面改善幅度有限,相对利好仍在于上游焦煤的供应端强 预期。综上,焦炭自身基本面支撑仍较为乏力,不过进入新一年度后,经 济政策预期、"反内卷"政策预期,以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐 显,带动焦炭期货低位反弹。 焦煤:截至 1 月 9 日当周,全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 73.4 万 吨,周环比增 4.4 万吨,较去年同期产量偏低 6.9 万吨。需求方面,截至 1 月 9 日当周,样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量合计 110.45 万吨,周环比增 0.9 万吨。整体来看,元旦过后,焦煤预计进入供需两增 格局,短期基本面难言明显改善,但经 ...
碳酸锂日报:碳酸锂强势运行-20260112
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 10:03
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is strongly operating. The main contract LC2605.GFE in the futures market closed at 156,060 yuan/ton, up 12,640 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The spot price of lithium carbonate was 152,120 yuan/ton, up 8.63% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days. The current basis is -3300 points, a negative basis (spot discount), 160 points weaker than the previous day, and the basis has strengthened overall in the past 10 trading days. The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate is 25,970 lots, an increase of 610 lots (+2.41%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days. The reduction of the tax refund rate has led to the front - loading of short - term demand for lithium carbonate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 156,060 yuan/ton, up 12,640 yuan/ton from the previous day and 26,080 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the settlement price was 155,420 yuan/ton, up 12,240 yuan/ton from the previous day and 28,860 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene and lithium mica from different origins have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Australian CIF6 Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate is 2040 - 2150 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 85 - 105 US dollars/ton from the previous day and 470 - 500 US dollars/ton from 5 trading days ago. The average price of lithium mica in the Chinese market has also increased [6]. - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of domestic 99.5% electric lithium carbonate was 152,120 yuan/ton, up 12,080 yuan/ton from the previous day and 32,590 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago; the price of domestic 56.5% lithium hydroxide was 143,030 yuan/ton, up 10,990 yuan/ton from the previous day and 32,140 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of some downstream products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium have changed. For example, the price of the ternary precursor (523) was 106,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day but up 10,000 yuan/ton from 5 trading days ago [6]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Ore and Lithium Prices**: There are charts showing the price changes of lithium mica, lithium carbonate futures, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium carbonate basis, and the price difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate [8]. - **Cathode & Ternary Materials**: There are charts presenting the prices of manganese acid lithium, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, ternary precursors, and ternary materials [10][13][15]. - **Other Related Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures**: There are charts showing the changes in the trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipt volume of the main lithium carbonate contract [18][19].
钢材&铁矿石日报:商品情绪偏暖,钢矿震荡走高-20260112
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 10:03
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.60%, showing a pattern of decreasing volume and increasing open interest. With supply increasing and demand weak, the fundamental contradiction has accumulated. Although the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, the rebar price is expected to continue the oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil also oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.55%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. In the current situation of increasing supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are weak, and the price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and its trend is expected to maintain an oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.92%, and both volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the supply of iron ore is high while the demand improvement is limited, so the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the warm commodity sentiment and pre - holiday restocking support. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price maintains a high - level operation. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In December 2025, 482 projects started across the country with a total investment of about 534.092 billion yuan. The total investment in 2025 was about 27.52 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of start - up investment in December were Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Anhui, with total investments of 121.238 billion yuan, 59.41 billion yuan, and 49.103 billion yuan respectively [7]. - As of January 12, 2026, 21 car companies announced their 2025 production and sales data. These 21 car companies sold a total of 25.0233 million vehicles in 2025. BYD led the domestic market with sales of 4.6024 million vehicles. SAIC Group ranked first in production with 4.602 million vehicles in 2025, followed by BYD with 4.5374 million vehicles. 18 car companies saw their sales increase in 2025. XPeng Motors had the highest growth rate of 125.94%, followed by Leapmotor with 103.10%, and BAIC BluePark with 84.06% [8]. - Since January 12, 2026, Handan has launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather, which is expected to be lifted around January 17 due to poor atmospheric diffusion conditions [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,280 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,200 yuan, and the national average was 3,341 yuan. The price changes were 20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 4 yuan respectively [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan, and the national average was 3,311 yuan. The price changes were 20 yuan, 0 yuan, and 5 yuan respectively [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,970 yuan with a change of - 10 yuan [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,090 yuan with no change [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 825 yuan with a change of 7 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet - basis): The price was 777 yuan with no change [10]. - Freight rates: Australian freight was 7.84 yuan with a change of - 0.08 yuan, and Brazilian freight was 21.13 yuan with a change of - 0.46 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 108.34 yuan with a change of 0.49 yuan [10]. - Platts Index (CFR): The price was 108.50 yuan with a change of 0.30 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,165 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.60%. The highest price was 3,174 yuan, the lowest was 3,141 yuan, the trading volume was 957,432 lots (a decrease of 212,075 lots), and the open interest was 1,726,703 lots (an increase of 11,840 lots) [13]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,311 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.55%. The highest price was 3,320 yuan, the lowest was 3,289 yuan, the trading volume was 408,729 lots (a decrease of 106,874 lots), and the open interest was 1,427,498 lots (an increase of 10,408 lots) [13]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 822.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.92%. The highest price was 826.0 yuan, the lowest was 817.0 yuan, the trading volume was 272,044 lots (an increase of 1,717 lots), and the open interest was 654,834 lots (an increase of 14,950 lots) [13]. 4. Related Charts - Steel inventory: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 - 2026 [15][21][25]. - Iron ore inventory: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, inventory of 247 steel mills, and inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate powder [23][24][26]. - Steel mill production: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [30][33][35]. 5. Future Outlook - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has weakened. The weekly output increased by 2.82 tons, and the demand decreased by 25.48 tons. With the accumulation of fundamental contradictions, the rebar price is under pressure in the off - season. Although there is positive commodity sentiment and cost support, it is expected to continue the oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the production of steel mills [40]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has changed little. The weekly output increased by 1.00 tons, and the demand decreased by 2.43 tons. With high inventory and weakening demand, the price is under pressure. Although the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, it is expected to maintain an oscillatory and stable operation. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak. The inventory is rising, and the demand improvement is limited due to the poor profitability of steel mills and the off - season steel market. The supply is at a relatively high level. Although there is warm commodity sentiment and pre - holiday restocking support, the ore price is expected to maintain a high - level operation. Attention should be paid to the restocking of steel mills [41].
国内外天然橡胶期货市场定价优势比较研究
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-12 09:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pricing advantages of domestic and foreign natural rubber futures vary significantly. The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) takes the lead globally with its consumption - end dominance, efficient mechanism, and global leadership. The Singapore Exchange (SGX) solidifies its regional pricing core with production - sales connection, cross - border adaptation, and regional radiation. The Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) has its pricing advantage continuously weakened and has become a follower due to the lack of industrial support and mechanism defects [5][40]. - The mismatch in the global supply - demand pattern is the fundamental premise for the differentiation of advantages. The adaptability of delivery systems is the core support, the market positioning and investor structure are important influencing factors, and opening - up is external empowerment [5][40]. - The SHFE has achieved the global pricing core status. In the future, there is room for improvement in aspects such as delivery target adaptation, international participation, and cross - border transmission. The global authority of the "Shanghai Price" needs further strengthening. With the deepening of the "Belt and Road" rubber industry cooperation, the "futures + spot" linkage pricing model between China and Southeast Asian major producing countries can be further studied to help build a natural rubber pricing system of "Chinese pricing, globally recognized" [5][40]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Spot prices oscillated and rebounded, and the basis widened [1]. - Futures prices rose, and the monthly spread turned into a premium [1]. 3.2 Rubber Market Supply and Demand - The output of rubber - producing countries steadily recovered, increasing supply pressure [5]. - Tire operating rates slightly rebounded [5]. - Automobile market sales improved significantly [5]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone also rose [5]. 3.3 Research Background and Significance - Natural rubber is a key industrial raw material. The global production exceeds 14 million tons annually, with a supply - demand pattern of "major production in Southeast Asia, major consumption in East Asia". The mismatch in supply and demand makes the pricing power of the futures market a focus of competition among countries [11]. - The core of the pricing advantage of natural rubber futures includes three aspects: pricing foundation advantage, pricing mechanism advantage, and pricing influence [11]. - The global natural rubber futures market has three core platforms: TOCOM, SHFE, and SGX. In May 2025, the Osaka Exchange listed the "Shanghai Natural Rubber Futures" based on the SHFE's delivery settlement price, marking the official output of the "Chinese Price" overseas [12]. 3.4 Overview of the Operation Foundation of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures Markets - **Contract Design and Delivery Rules**: The SHFE uses domestic full - latex and imported RSS3 as delivery targets, with RMB pricing and physical delivery. TOCOM uses RSS3, with yen pricing and cash delivery. SGX uses TSR20, with US dollar pricing and physical delivery covering Southeast Asian ports [25]. - **Industrial Relying and Market Positioning**: China is the largest consumer of natural rubber. The SHFE serves the domestic real economy and leads global pricing. Japan focuses on high - end rubber product exports, and TOCOM is for international speculation and hedging. Singapore has no natural rubber production, and SGX acts as a bridge between production and consumption areas [26]. - **Investor Structure and Trading Activity**: The SHFE has domestic industrial and speculative customers. TOCOM has overseas speculative institutions and Japanese financial institutions. SGX has Southeast Asian traders and global institutions [27]. 3.5 Core Comparison of Pricing Advantages of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures Markets - **Pricing Foundation Support**: The SHFE has an absolute advantage in the consumer end. China's 45% global consumption share forms a strong pricing foundation. SGX has a hub support advantage in connecting production and sales. TOCOM's traditional advantage is weakening due to the shrinking consumption scale in Japan [30]. - **Pricing Mechanism Efficiency**: The SHFE has an efficient pricing mechanism with physical delivery. SGX has a cross - border adaptable pricing mechanism. TOCOM has insufficient pricing efficiency due to cash delivery and speculative capital dominance [32]. - **Pricing Influence**: The SHFE has a global leading pricing influence. SGX has a regional radiation pricing influence. TOCOM's traditional influence is shrinking and has become a follower [33]. 3.6 Analysis of the Causes of the Differences in Pricing Advantages of Domestic and Foreign Natural Rubber Futures - The mismatch in the global natural rubber industrial supply - demand pattern is the fundamental premise. The SHFE has pricing power due to consumption - end dominance, SGX has supply - side information advantage, and TOCOM's traditional advantage weakens [36]. - The adaptability of delivery systems and contract design is the core support. The SHFE's physical delivery anchors the real economy, SGX's delivery targets fit global trade, and TOCOM's cash delivery leads to the weakening of pricing advantage [37]. - The synergy of market positioning and investor structure is an important influencing factor. The SHFE's positioning and investor structure ensure price alignment with the real economy, SGX's price reflects both production and consumption, and TOCOM's price deviates from supply and demand [37]. - The degree of opening - up and international layout affect pricing influence. The SHFE and SGX enhance their influence through opening - up, while TOCOM's influence is limited [38]. 3.7 Conclusion - The pricing advantages of the three exchanges vary significantly, with the SHFE leading globally, SGX being the regional core, and TOCOM becoming a follower [40]. - The causes of the differences include supply - demand mismatch, delivery system adaptability, market positioning and investor structure, and opening - up [40]. - The SHFE has the global pricing core status, and there is room for improvement in the future. The "Belt and Road" cooperation can help build a new pricing system [40].