策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆产区迎来有利降雨，天气前景改善，美豆期价震荡偏弱运行，呈现明显的天气市波动特征。 国内豆类市场交易逻辑未变，跟随外盘美豆期价回吐部分天气风险升水之后，继续回落空间受到制约。 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 < END > 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均早盘震荡盘整，午后小幅上涨。近期国内宏观经济指标边际走弱，信贷、通 胀等数据表现偏弱表明内需下行压力仍存，未来仍需要更多托底需求的政策出 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel futures, with corresponding core logics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **View**: Short - term: decline; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: decline; Overall: short - term bearish [1][3]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts have eased as the US President Trump announced on June 23 that Israel and Iran had agreed to a full cease - fire, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and downward pressure on gold prices. Attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average of Shanghai gold [3]. Nickel - **View**: Short - term: rise; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: rise; Overall: short - term bullish [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the cease - fire between Iran and Israel, geopolitical conflicts have eased, and market risk appetite has increased. Although nickel's fundamentals were weak last week, short - term macroeconomic improvement may lead to a rebound in non - ferrous metals and a bottom - up recovery of nickel prices [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡思路 | 地缘因素扰动，焦煤或将承压 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 震荡思路 | 现货四轮降价，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：安全月活动期间，安监、环保、以及经营压力导致国内焦煤产量出现一 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 宏观经济指标偏弱，货币宽松预 期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。当前市场对中长期角度的降息预期仍强，一方面当前宏观 经济指标边际走弱，下半年宏观政策出台需要偏宽松的货币环境，另一方面美 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 沪铜 今日铜价偏弱震荡，午后冲高回落。宏观层面，中东局势紧张， 但整体并未对国内的风险偏好造成较大影响，黄金和原油均高开低 走。产业层面，23 日 Mysteel 电解铜社库为 13.19 万吨，较上去去 库 1.05 万吨。上周铜价下挫至前期价格中枢 7.8 万一线，产业补库 意愿上升，7-8 月差也有所走强。此外，近期海外伦铜升水明显走 强，这说明了海外电解铜现货紧张。在中东局势不升级的情况下， 预计铜价持续企稳回升。 沪铝 今日早盘铝价冲高回落，日内延续推升。产业层面，上周 7-8 月 差持续走弱，这很大程度上说 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 地缘因素扰动，煤焦偏强运行 核心观点 焦炭：6 月 23 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1385.0 元/吨，日内录得 0.22%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.06 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1363 手。现货市场方面，23 日焦炭第四轮提降 50/55 元落地，下游压价 情绪仍存，焦炭价格继续走低。期货市场方面，随着利多因素逐渐累积， 原先普遍悲观的市场情绪迎来转变，部分空单止盈离场，市场多空博弈加 剧，带动焦炭期货低位宽幅震荡。展望后市，从 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 6 月 23 日 铜铝周报 中东局势紧张，市场风险偏好下降 核心观点 铜：市场风险偏好下降，铜价承压，关注前期价格中枢支撑 铝：国内宏观回暖，铝价延续强势 上周铝价冲高回落，在有色板块中表现强势。我们认为国内宏观 氛围回暖很大程度上推升了铝价。铝价受国际宏观影响相对较小，而 国内宏观氛围较好，产业需求也较好，电解铝库存持续去化使其维持 强势运行。随着铝价上行，月差回落，产业推动意愿下降。关注 10 日均线支撑。此外，铸造铝合金上市交易，短期铝的资金关注度上 市。目前主力期价已突破 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 13, the US-Iran nuclear negotiation was hopeless, Israel attacked Iran, and the Middle East turmoil escalated with a sharp rise in crude oil prices. After 10 days, oil price growth weakened and gold price first soared then declined, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran vowed to retaliate, which may boost gold prices. In the long run, gold prices have been oscillating at a high level since the second quarter, facing significant upward pressure. If the Middle East situation is under control, gold prices may remain under pressure in the third quarter due to the increased market risk appetite after the relaxation of US tariff policies [3][26] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report includes a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but no specific trend description is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From June 13 to June 20, COMEX gold decreased by 1.98% from 3,452.60 to 3,384.40; COMEX silver decreased by 1.15% from 36.37 to 35.95; SHFE gold主力 decreased by 1.99% from 794.36 to 778.58; SHFE silver主力 decreased by 1.44% from 8,791.00 to 8,664.00; the US dollar index increased by 0.63% from 98.15 to 98.76; the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.14% from 7.19 to 7.18; the 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.08 from 2.13 to 2.05; the S&P 500 decreased by 0.15% from 5,976.97 to 5,967.84; the US crude oil continuous increased by 2.49% from 73.18 to 75.00; the COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.83% from 94.93 to 94.14; the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.55% from 90.36 to 89.86; the SPDR gold ETF increased by 9.75 from 940.49 to 950.24; the iShare gold ETF increased by 1.76 from 436.00 to 437.76 [8] 2. Gold Price Soars and Then Declines - Last week, the gold price soared and then declined, while the US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, crude oil showed weak upward momentum, and the three major US stock indexes did not have significant declines, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. Over the weekend, the Middle East situation heated up, which is beneficial to the gold price. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and on the day after the Fed's June interest rate meeting, Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed should cut interest rates as early as July [10] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the net long non-commercial positions on COMEX have been rising. As of June 10, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 987, short positions decreased by 563, and net long positions decreased by 424. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [15] - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to rise, and silver ETFs have risen significantly. In early June, silver prices rose sharply with obvious ETF position increases, showing a combination of price and volume increases. Silver broke through the May 2024 high, and short-term capital attention has rapidly increased, expected to remain strong [17] - Since late April, the gold price soared and then declined, and the gold-silver ratio also declined from a high level. Silver benefited from its precious metal attribute and had a short-term supplementary increase. It broke through the one-year oscillation high, and short-term capital attention increased with strong upward momentum. The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [20] - Since June, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields has decreased slightly overall [22] 4. Conclusion - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the recent Middle East situation changes may boost gold prices, but in the long run, gold prices face upward pressure and may remain under pressure in the third quarter if the Middle East situation is controllable [3][26]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuates. Supply is rising while demand remains seasonally weak, keeping steel prices under pressure. However, low inventory eases immediate contradictions. Short - term, it will likely stay in low - level oscillations. Monitor steel mill production [4][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price also fluctuates. Supply is at a high level, and although demand shows some improvement, its sustainability is uncertain. It will likely continue to oscillate at a low level, with demand being the key factor to watch [4][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price is strongly oscillating. Demand has improved slightly, but supply is high, and the improvement in demand may not last. The price is expected to oscillate, with the performance of finished products being a key factor [4][39]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - **Power Industry**: From January to May, grid project investment reached 204 billion yuan, a 19.8% year - on - year increase. Total installed power generation capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power showing significant growth [6]. - **Construction Industry**: The total new contract value of the top five construction central enterprises in the first five months exceeded 2.9 trillion yuan. China State Construction ranked first, with infrastructure business growing rapidly [7]. - **Iron Ore Mining**: Three new iron ore mining areas in Goa, India, were approved for operation, with different companies winning the mining rights and having various production capacities [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average, hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average, and prices of Tangshan billet and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are presented, along with their price changes. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 130 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 940 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports, Tangshan iron concentrate, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index are provided, along with their price changes [9]. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract is 2,995 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. Trading volume decreased by 437,662 lots, and open interest decreased by 6,206 lots [13]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active contract is 3,112 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.16%. Trading volume decreased by 184,500 lots, and open interest increased by 28,968 lots [13]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active contract is 706.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.50%. Trading volume decreased by 137,710 lots, and open interest increased by 4,370 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil [15][16][18]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal and monthly changes [20][25][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts display the blast furnace operation rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operation rate of 87 independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent arc - furnace steel mills [30][33][35]. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply is rising while demand is seasonally weak. Although inventory is low, steel prices will continue to face pressure and oscillate at a low level [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply is high, and demand shows some improvement but its sustainability is uncertain. It will likely continue to oscillate at a low level [38]. - **Iron Ore**: Demand has improved slightly, but supply is high, and the improvement in demand may not last. The price is expected to oscillate [39].