1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: With macro disturbances decreasing and industrial support increasing, copper prices have stabilized and are expected to continue rising. After the short - term profit - taking of long positions around the Fed's interest - rate cut, copper prices stabilized on Friday. At the industrial level, the decline in copper prices and the peak season have increased downstream replenishment willingness, providing support. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 80,000 - yuan level [3][53]. - Aluminum: Similar to copper, macro disturbances are decreasing and industrial support is increasing, leading to the stabilization of aluminum prices. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, long - position holders took profits, causing the price to decline. As the price falls, downstream replenishment willingness recovers, and with the upcoming double - festival stocking demand, industrial support is expected to strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [4][53]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Factors - The Fed's September interest - rate cut was implemented last week, leading to a reverse market trend as the good news was realized. The US dollar index rebounded from its low, most non - ferrous metals saw a reduction in positions and price drops, and the stock index fluctuated at a high level. With the end of the September interest - rate cut, macro disturbances will gradually decrease, and the influence of the industry will increase. The approaching double festivals and the previous high - price wait - and - see attitude will increase the pre - festival stocking demand as prices fall, providing support for futures prices [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, short - term long - position holders had a strong willingness to take profits, resulting in a significant reduction in positions and price drops in Shanghai copper. LME copper also faced strong technical pressure at the annual high, increasing the willingness of long - position holders to take profits. Since Friday, the profit - taking has ended, and copper prices have stabilized and rebounded, with Shanghai copper breaking through the 80,000 - yuan level and LME copper reaching the $10,000 level [3][53]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees - Copper ore processing fees have slightly rebounded from a low level [23]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper De - stocking - The de - stocking of electrolytic copper has slowed down [26]. 3.2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - The monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [32]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices continuously declined from a high level. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, long - position holders took profits, leading to a significant reduction in positions and price drops. Shanghai aluminum also reached an annual high, increasing the willingness of long - position holders to take profits [4][53]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - Information on bauxite port inventory and alumina prices is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [41][45]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - The inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum rose last week as downstream buyers were more cautious due to high prices in September [4][53]. 3.3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Information on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [47][49][52]. 3.4 Conclusion - Copper: After the end of the short - term profit - taking of long positions, copper prices have stabilized and are expected to continue rising. The decline in copper prices and the peak season have increased downstream replenishment willingness, providing support. Attention should be paid to domestic inventory and the 80,000 - yuan technical support [3][53]. - Aluminum: As the price falls, downstream replenishment willingness recovers, and with the double - festival stocking demand, industrial support is expected to strengthen. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 20 - day moving average [4][53].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: As of the week ending September 19, the combined daily average coke production of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1133700 tons, remaining basically flat week - on - week. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2410200 tons, a slight increase of 4700 tons week - on - week. During the week, coke inventory shifted downstream. The inventory of independent coking plants was 664100 tons, a decrease of 14300 tons week - on - week; the coke inventory of steel mill coking plants was 6446700 tons, an increase of 113800 tons week - on - week; the total inventory was 9151800 tons, an increase of 89400 tons week - on - week. With the approaching National Day holiday, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment demand of enterprises is gradually released, providing some support for the spot price. Overall, the fundamental contradictions of coke are not prominent, market sentiment is wait - and - see, and the futures are oscillating within a range. The future trend depends on whether there are new positive factors in the anti - involution policy [5][35]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending September 19, the daily average production of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 761000 tons, an increase of 33000 tons month - on - month, but 33000 tons lower than the same period last year. At the import end, the number of Mongolian coal customs - cleared vehicles at the 288 port returned to the high of the year last week, with the daily customs - cleared vehicles around 1300 - 1400. On the demand side, the combined daily average coke production of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1133700 tons, remaining basically flat week - on - week. Overall, the real - world fundamentals of coking coal lack support, but against the backdrop of repeated disturbances in the anti - involution theme, the downstream inventory replenishment expectation before the National Day and the coal mine production reduction expectation at the end of the month provide some support for the price, driving the main coking coal contract to maintain a high - level oscillation for the time being [6][36]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze, China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing, and People's Bank of China Deputy Governor and State Administration of Foreign Exchange Director Zhu Hexin introduced the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period and answered reporters' questions [8]. - On September 22, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market increased by 10 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of medium - sulfur primary coking clean coal with A10.5, S1.3, V25, G80, CSR65, and petrographic 0.15 was 1250 yuan/ton including tax [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade FOB) | 1470 | - 3.29% | - 6.37% | - 13.02% | - 13.02% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1480 | 6.47% | 0.00% | - 8.64% | - 12.43% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimao Port Mongolian Coal) | 1150 | 0.88% | - 2.54% | - 2.54% | - 17.86% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1610 | 5.23% | 1.90% | 8.05% | - 3.01% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1610 | 3.87% | - 1.23% | 5.23% | - 6.94% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1718.0 | - 0.43 | 1753.5 | 1705.0 | 25876 | 2249 | 45299 | - 489 | | Coking Coal | | 1217.5 | 0.12 | 1253.0 | 1204.0 | 1299354 | 221235 | 716268 | - 7023 | [14] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke from 2019 - 2025 [15][16][18][20]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [23][26][27][32]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production (clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [29][31][33][34]. Market Outlook The analysis and outlook for coke and coking coal are the same as the core views, emphasizing the current production, inventory situations, and future price trends affected by factors such as the approaching National Day holiday and anti - involution policies [35][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled and the rubber market enters a weak supply - demand structure [5]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals [5]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled and the market turns to a weak supply - demand fundamental [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 58.66 million tons, a decrease of 0.56 million tons or 0.95% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 6.62 million tons, while general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 52.04 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.44 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.96 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.27 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [8]. - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year - on - year and a decrease of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation's China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease from July and a 35% increase from the same period last year. In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [9]. Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a 1.53% decrease from the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China was 1.8132 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a decrease of 30,200 tons from the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58 percentage points [10]. - As of September 19, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and an increase of 487,200 tons from the same period last year. The port methanol inventory in East China was 851,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,700 tons, and the port methanol inventory in South China was 478,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,800 tons. As of the week of September 17, 2025, the inland methanol inventory in China was 340,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,600 tons, and a decrease of 94,200 tons from the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a decrease of 2.152 million barrels from the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [13]. - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 98,709 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a decrease of 23,354 contracts or 19.13% from the August average. As of September 16, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 220,410 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and an increase of 18,092 contracts or 8.94% from the August average. Overall, the net long position in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while the net long position in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly week - on - week [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,700 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,530 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | - 830 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,287 yuan/ton | + 17 yuan/ton | 2,348 yuan/ton | - 13 yuan/ton | - 61 yuan/ton | + 13 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 458.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 484.0 yuan/barrel | - 3.0 yuan/barrel | - 25.2 yuan/barrel | + 2.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil including rubber basis, rubber 1 - 5 month spread,上期所 rubber futures inventory, etc., with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [17][19][21]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Ribbed Bars**: The main futures price fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of 0.85%. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of ribbed bars have improved marginally. However, the downstream market has not improved, and concerns about demand remain. The improvement strength needs to be tracked. The relative positive factor is the rising cost. With the game of multiple and short factors, the steel price is expected to maintain a stable and fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The main futures price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.54%. Currently, the demand resilience of hot - rolled coils is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, the inventory has increased again, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relative positive factors are the rising cost and production limit disturbances. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be weak and fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4][37]. - **Iron Ore**: The main futures price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.37%. Currently, the demand for iron ore is performing well, supporting the high - level ore price to fluctuate upward. However, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply is also rising. The fundamentals have not been substantially improved. Coupled with the relatively high valuation, the pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic, and precautions should be taken against the intensification of industrial contradictions [4][38]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - **Air - Conditioner Production Scheduling**: In October 2025, the production scheduling of air - conditioners continued to decline. The total retail volume of air - conditioners in August increased by 1.1% year - on - year, but the growth rate has decreased significantly. In the first two weeks of September, the online and offline sales volumes decreased by 35.5% and 30% respectively. In terms of production, the domestic sales production scheduling in October was 5.61 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%, and the export production scheduling was 6.34 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% [6]. - **New Contracts of Construction Central Enterprises**: As of September 22, 2025, five construction central enterprises announced their new contract amounts in the first eight months of 2025, with a total of 4.713239 trillion yuan. China State Construction ranked first with a new contract amount of 2.8799 trillion yuan in the first eight months. In the construction business, the new contract amount in the first eight months was 2.6644 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, of which the infrastructure business was 0.8954 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In the real estate business, the contract sales volume in the first eight months was 0.2155 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [7]. - **Steel Industry Plan**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Steel Industry (2025 - 2026)". The overall goal is to achieve an average annual growth of about 4% in the added value of the steel industry from 2025 to 2026, with the economic benefits stabilizing and rebounding, the market supply - demand becoming more balanced, the industrial structure being more optimized, the effective supply capacity continuously increasing, and the levels of green - low - carbon and digital development being significantly improved [8]. Spot Market - The report provides the spot prices of ribbed bars, hot - rolled coils, Tangshan billets, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and other products, as well as the prices of 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight rates, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index [9]. Futures Market - **Ribbed Bars**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,185 yuan, with a rise of 0.85%. The trading volume was 1,652,529 lots, an increase of 401,938 lots, and the open interest was 1,861,142 lots, a decrease of 109,368 lots [11]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,380 yuan, with a rise of 0.54%. The trading volume was 548,824 lots, an increase of 89,152 lots, and the open interest was 1,382,769 lots, a decrease of 30,384 lots [11]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 808.5 yuan, with a rise of 0.37%. The trading volume was 409,502 lots, an increase of 29,691 lots, and the open interest was 562,024 lots, a decrease of 12,497 lots [11]. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: The report provides charts of ribbed bar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social warehouses), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social warehouses) [13][14][16]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts of iron ore port inventory (seasonal, total inventory), inventory of 247 steel mills' iron ore are presented [18][22][24]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts of the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills are included [26][28][32]. 后市研判 - **Ribbed Bars**: The supply - demand pattern has improved. The weekly output of ribbed bars decreased by 54,800 tons, continuing the downward trend. The demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 119,600 tons. However, the demand improvement needs to be tracked. The steel price is expected to be stable and fluctuating [37]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The weekly output increased by 13,500 tons, and the demand has weakened. The demand resilience is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuating [37]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The terminal consumption of iron ore continues to rise, but the demand is expected to weaken. The supply is increasing. The pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, Shanghai copper opened high and went higher. Today, copper prices maintained a strong shock, with a slight decline in open interest. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. High copper prices previously led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand boosted industrial restocking willingness, supporting copper prices. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, with open interest continuously declining. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. In September, aluminum prices generally remained high, and downstream restocking willingness was weak. As futures prices declined, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, Shanghai aluminum pulled back after hitting a high in March, facing significant technical pressure. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell, with open interest continuously rising. In the morning, the main futures price reached the 122,000 mark. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. On the industrial side, disruptions at the Indonesian mine end were positive for nickel prices, while the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory was negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices were still in the shock range. Pay attention to the 120,000 - 123,000 range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - In August 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,806 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.82% and a month - on - month increase of 2.09%. From January to August, China's copper enameled wire exports totaled 94,935.7 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.41% [8]. - In August 2025, China's copper clad laminate (HS code: 74102110) imports were 3,417.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.12% and a month - on - month increase of 5.68%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 26,439.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. In August, exports were 8,377.20 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.22% and a month - on - month increase of 15.87%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 59,867.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.85% [8]. Aluminum - In August 2025, the imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 71,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 682,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. In August, the exports were 29,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 174,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [9]. - In August 2025, the exports of domestic aluminum profiles were 84,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94% [9]. Nickel - On September 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,300 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][24][26] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After geopolitical factors are digested by the market, the expectation of oversupply in the oil market becomes the dominant factor. Due to the bearish August production data of OPEC+ oil - producing countries and the upcoming off - season demand in the Northern Hemisphere, the pressure of oversupply in the fourth quarter increases, leading to a trend of rising first and then falling in domestic and international crude oil futures prices this week, with the increase in futures prices converging. OPEC+ continuing to expand production may lead to greater pressure of oversupply in crude oil in the fourth quarter of this year and a downward shift in the oil price center. The geopolitical risks still need attention. In the short - term background dominated by supply negatives, it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary According to the Catalog 1 Market Review 1.1 Spot Prices Rise Significantly, and Basis Discount Narrows Slightly - As of the week ending September 19, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was quoted at $65.39 per barrel, equivalent to a RMB quote of 465.1 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 12.6 yuan per barrel. The main domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 closed at 486.0 yuan per barrel, with a significant week - on - week increase of 10.7 yuan per barrel. The discount degree narrowed slightly, and the basis between them was 20.9 yuan per barrel [8]. 1.2 Bearish Factors Dominate, Crude Oil Rises First and Then Falls - After geopolitical factors are digested by the market, the expectation of oversupply in the oil market becomes the dominant factor. Due to the bearish August production data of OPEC+ oil - producing countries and the upcoming off - season demand in the Northern Hemisphere, the pressure of oversupply in the fourth quarter increases, leading to a trend of rising first and then falling in domestic and international crude oil futures prices this week, with the increase in futures prices converging. The cumulative increase of the domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 this week reached 2.16% to 487.0 yuan per barrel [4][11][12]. 2 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus Escalates, and the Pace of Production Increase Accelerates 2.1 OPEC+ Accelerates Capacity Release, and the Expectation of Supply Surplus Increases - In August 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 27.948 million barrels per day, a significant month - on - month increase of 478,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.296 million barrels per day. Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to a production - increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. The production increase decision of OPEC+ does not mean the full realization of actual production, and the actual production may be affected by various factors [23][24][25]. 2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries' Capacity Remains at a High Level - Since 2025, the crude oil production in the United States has remained at a high level. As of the week ending September 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 416, a slight week - on - week increase of 2, and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.482 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [40]. 2.3 The Peak Season of Crude Oil Demand in the Northern Hemisphere is Coming to an End - Entering September, the peak season of crude oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere will come to an end, the demand factor will gradually weaken, the inventory depletion rhythm will slow down, and the pressure of inventory accumulation will come. Different energy institutions have different views on the future oil market. OPEC expects a tighter oil market next year, while EIA and IEA expect a record - breaking supply surplus in the global oil market next year [43][44][45]. 2.4 U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Drops Significantly, and Refinery Utilization Rate Decreases Slightly - As of the week ending September 12, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 415 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The refinery utilization rate in the United States was maintained at 93.9%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points [47]. 2.5 China's Crude Oil Imports Increased Slightly in August 2025 - In August 2025, China's crude oil imports reached 49.492 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 2.288 million tons and a slight year - on - year increase of 392,000 tons. However, looking forward to the Chinese crude oil market in 2025, crude oil processing and import consumption may be restricted by weak demand [50]. 3 U.S. - Russia Summit, Cooling of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin met in Alaska. Although no agreement was reached, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to cool down, which will lead to a shrinkage of the premium of international crude oil futures, and the focus of the oil market will shift to the supply - demand structure [60][63]. 4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Decrease Significantly Week - on - Week - Since September 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile downward trend, and the market's long - making power has continued to shrink. As of September 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was maintained at 81,844 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 20,584 contracts [65]. 5 Conclusion - OPEC+ continuing to expand production may lead to greater pressure of oversupply in crude oil in the fourth quarter of this year and a downward shift in the oil price center. The geopolitical risks still need attention. In the short - term background dominated by supply negatives, it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4][68].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report believes that the domestic thermal coal price has rebounded this week. As of September 17, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 689 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase. After the "anti-involution" production capacity verification, the supply of thermal coal in China has gradually stabilized, and the pressure on the supply side has been significantly alleviated compared with the previous two years. Coupled with the good fundamentals of thermal coal before the National Day, it is expected that the coal price will remain strong in the short term [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - For thermal coal spot, the short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are all "oscillation", and the core logic is that the supply - demand expectation is good, and the coal price is expected to run strongly before the festival [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - The reference view of thermal coal spot is "oscillation". The core logic is that the domestic thermal coal price has rebounded this week. After the "anti - involution" production capacity verification, the supply has gradually stabilized, and the supply - side pressure has been alleviated. With the good fundamentals before the National Day, the short - term coal price is expected to be strong [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets are experiencing various changes. In the commodity market, precious metals are rising due to factors like Fed rate - cut expectations and geopolitical risks, while basic metals face a complex situation with supply - demand imbalances. In the financial market, the stock market shows positive trends, and the bond market is in a state of low - interest - rate and complex trading strategies. The currency market also has fluctuations influenced by multiple factors [4][32][24]. - The Chinese economy has both positive and negative aspects. The GDP maintains a certain growth rate, but there are also challenges in areas such as inflation and fixed - asset investment. The government is taking measures to promote economic development and environmental protection, and the financial sector is actively adjusting policies and structures [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a 5.2% year - on - year growth at constant prices, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, and the CPI had a - 0.4% year - on - year change [1]. - M1 and M2 money supply had year - on - year growth in August 2025, with M1 at 6% and M2 at 8.8% [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Metals - International precious metals are rising due to Fed rate - cut expectations, a weak dollar, and geopolitical risks. London basic metals mostly fell, with supply disturbances and weak demand in a complex situation [4]. - As of September 18, tin, zinc, lead, copper, and nickel inventories decreased, while aluminum, cobalt, and alloy inventories remained stable [5]. - Platinum futures prices have risen over 50% this year, outperforming gold futures, and global platinum demand in Q1 2025 increased by 10% year - on - year [5]. 3.2.2 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Shanxi's coalbed methane production in the first 8 months of this year reached 9.81 billion cubic meters, a record high [6]. - Congo (Kinshasa) will lift the cobalt export ban on October 16 and set export quotas. If the ban is extended, cobalt prices may rise [6][7]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - China's Jintan salt - cavern gas storage expanded its capacity, with a 60% increase in daily gas injection and a 2 - fold increase in daily peak - shaving gas extraction [8]. - The EU proposed new sanctions on Russia, including a ban on Russian LNG imports and a $47.6 per - barrel oil price cap [8]. - As OPEC+ voluntary production cuts end, Iraq increased oil exports and earned additional revenue [8]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - China's irrigated farmland area has reached 1.086 billion mu, and water - saving irrigation projects have expanded [10]. - The US will cancel the annual food insecurity survey, but the 2024 results will still be released [10]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 19, the central bank conducted 354.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 124.3 billion yuan [12]. - This week, 1.8268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of MLF are due. The central bank adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation method [12]. 3.3.2 Key News - China and the US leaders had a phone call, emphasizing the importance of stable bilateral relations and a good business environment for Chinese companies in the US [15]. - On September 22, the LPR will be announced, and the market expects it to remain unchanged [17]. - 8 - month foreign exchange market data shows stable operation, with increased cross - border receipts and payments and net capital inflows [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - Bank - to - bank bond yields generally rose, and bond futures prices fell. The money market improved, and the DR001 weighted average rate dropped to around 1.46% [24]. - In the exchange bond market, some bonds rose and some fell. The convertible bond index also declined [24][25]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 46 points at 7.1125, and the RMB central parity rate was down 43 points [28]. - The US dollar index rose 0.30%, and most non - US currencies fell [28]. 3.4 Research Report Highlights - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that bond funds will maintain a medium - to - high duration level [29]. - Guosheng Fixed Income points out that fiscal revenue and expenditure declined in August, and the sustainability of fiscal stimulus is uncertain [29]. 3.5 Stock Market - Since the implementation of "9·24" policies, China's capital market has become more stable, with increased trading volume and new accounts [32]. - Institutions have been actively researching A - share companies, especially in "hard - tech" sectors. High - profile institutions are optimistic about the sustainable rise of the Chinese stock market [33]. - After the Fed's rate cut, foreign institutions expect more capital to flow back to A - shares and Hong Kong stocks [34]. - Private equity institutions' positions have reached a new high this year [34].

宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-09-22 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2511 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：中美贸易改善预期令远期供应缺口存在证伪的可能。近期有关于中美贸易关系前景的任何消息 都成为市场情绪的助推剂。国内豆类产业链依然疲弱，油厂胀库压力依然存在，豆粕负基差格局持续。关 注双节前下游备货节奏和中美贸易进展，以及进口买船节奏的变化。短期豆粕期价仍将偏弱运行。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击 ...