期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 今日沪铝午后增仓上行明显，主力期价触及 2.22 万一线。宏观层 面，日元加息落地，市场风险偏好回升，有色普涨。产业层面，基差 月差维持弱势，产业端牵制较强。而近期铝代铜的预期给予铝价一定 支撑。技术上，短期铝价增仓上行，动能较强，关注前期高位压力。 沪镍 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 19 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色午后普涨 核心观点 沪铜 今日午后沪铜增仓上行明显，主力期价触及 9.3 万关口。宏观层 面，日元加戏落地，市场风险偏好回升，有色普涨。产业层面，现 货贴水和近月月 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 锰硅 承压走低 （2025 年 12 月 19 日） 12 月以来，锰硅期货及现货价格均自低位回升。主力合约累计上涨近 200 元/吨，现货价格亦同 步跟涨，但整体涨幅不及期货价格，基差延续弱稳运行态势。 供应收缩有限 12 月以来，尽管锰硅企业普遍亏损，生产意愿趋弱，但主产区减产幅度有限，供应压力并未明 显缓解。 截至 12 月 12 日当周，钢联统计的全国 187 家独立锰硅企业开工率为 36.85%，日均产量为 27035 吨，自 9 月中旬以来持续回落，累计降幅分别为 10.53 个百分点和 3555 吨。由于新增产能陆 续投放，即便当前开工率显著低于去年同期，锰硅整体产量仍与去年水平相近。其中，开工率同比 下降 8.18 个百分点，但日均产量仅较去年同期下降 1185 吨。分地区来看，多数产区产量甚至同比 有所增加。 具体而言，主产区内蒙古产量维持弱稳，最新日均产量为 13840 吨，较前期高点下降 1040 吨， 同比略降 800 吨；宁夏产区走势趋稳，日均产量为 6190 吨，较高点回落 1000 吨，同比微降 410 吨，整体收 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with pressure on the upside and support on the downside. In the short term, the policy is in a window period, and the driving force for continued policy intensification this year is insufficient. The policy is expected to focus on the first quarter of next year. The willingness of funds to leave the market and wait and see has increased, but if the stock index pulls back to the lower edge of the previous shock range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate will increase, providing strong support. As the expectation of policy benefits continues to ferment, market risk preference will gradually recover [5]. - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term and medium - term views are both "shock", the intraday view is "strong - biased", and the overall view is "range - bound", with the core logic being the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflow [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "strong - biased", and the view reference is "range - bound". The core logic is the unchanged expectation of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflow [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "strong - biased", and the medium - term view is "shock", with a reference view of "range - bound". Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and sorted in a narrow range. The total stock market turnover was 1672.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 162.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the trading volume of the stock market is shrinking, and the stock index remains within the shock range. In the short term, due to the policy window period, the driving force for continued policy intensification this year is insufficient, and the driving force of policy benefit expectations is weak. The willingness of funds to leave the market and wait and see has increased, and the driving force of funds is also weak. However, if the stock index pulls back to the lower edge of the previous shock range, the willingness of medium - and long - term funds to allocate will increase, providing strong support. Overall, the stock index is range - bound in the short term [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-12-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险增加，原油震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期沙特将其主要原油品种对亚洲的售价下调至五年来最低水平，与此同时全球原油库 存不断累积，原油市场正处在供应压力不断增大的阶段。此外，原油市场月差及成品油裂解价差走 弱均显示油市供需偏弱结构。随着美国和委内瑞拉冲突升级，地缘风险溢价再度增强。本周四夜盘， 国内原油期货价格呈现震荡整理的走势，预计本周五国内原油期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short-term view is bullish, the medium-term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that the macro atmosphere weakens and the demand for hedging rises. The macro level shows a weak US dollar index, which is beneficial to the gold price. There is significant technical pressure at the 4380 US dollars level for New York gold and the 980 yuan level for Shanghai gold. After the China-US summit in Busan at the end of October, the market risk appetite has continued to rise, and the gold price has shown a high-level oscillatory trend [1][3]. - For copper, the short-term view is oscillatory, the medium-term view is bullish, and the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish. The core logic is that the macro environment is loose and there is a reduction in mine supply. The US dollar is falling, which is beneficial to non-ferrous metals. The spot discount is weakening, and the 1 - 2 month spread is also continuously weakening, showing a pattern where the near - term is weak and the far - term is strong [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalog Gold - Short - term: Bullish [1] - Medium - term: Oscillatory [1] - Intraday: Oscillatory and bullish [1] - Core Logic: The macro atmosphere weakens, the demand for hedging rises. The US dollar index is weak, which is beneficial to the gold price. There is technical pressure at 4380 US dollars for New York gold and 980 yuan for Shanghai gold. After the China - US summit in Busan, the market risk appetite has risen, and the gold price is oscillating at a high level. Technically, pay attention to the resistance at the 4400 US dollars level [3]. Copper - Short - term: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - term: Bullish [1] - Intraday: Oscillatory and bullish [1] - Core Logic: The macro environment is loose and there is a reduction in mine supply. The US dollar is falling, which benefits non - ferrous metals. The spot discount is weakening, and the 1 - 2 month spread is also weakening, presenting a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 93,000 yuan level [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 马棕产量和出口，印尼生 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围改善，焦煤继续上行 | | | | 偏强 | | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡思路 | 成本支撑走强，焦炭低位反弹 | | | | 偏强 | | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点： ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak. At the end of the year, steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. The average daily hot metal production and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased again this week, both reaching relatively low levels. The profit situation of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. Attention should be paid to whether the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling can bring about demand improvement. - Domestic port arrivals have increased significantly, and overseas miners' shipments have continued to increase, hitting a new high for the single - week within the year. They are actively ramping up production at the end of the year. Even though domestic mine production is weakening, the overall ore supply remains at a high level. - In general, iron ore demand continues to weaken, and supply remains high. The supply - strong and demand - weak situation leads to poor fundamentals of the ore. The ore price is under pressure at a high level, but the structural contradiction in the spot market is unresolved, providing support for the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and caution should be exercised regarding the shift of the trading logic to the real - world situation [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 15,512.63, with a week - on - week increase of 81.21, an increase of 302.51 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 465.74 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,723.95, with a week - on - week decrease of 107.25, a decrease of 218.53 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 561.59 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. Supply - Domestic 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,723.40, with a week - on - week increase of 242.90, a decrease of 93.70 compared to last month, and an increase of 426.20 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). - Global iron ore shipments are 3,592.50, with a week - on - week increase of 223.94, an increase of 314.08 compared to last month, and an increase of 498.90 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills is 226.55, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.65, a decrease of 8.13 compared to last month, and a decrease of 7.32 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). - 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 313.45, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.74, a decrease of 18.13 compared to last month, and a decrease of 22.42 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 280.56, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.71, a decrease of 8.87 compared to last month, and a decrease of 9.21 compared to the same period (lunar calendar). - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions is 92.13, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.71, a decrease of 11.59 compared to last month, and a decrease of 22.03 compared to the same period (lunar calendar) [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar 2605 will maintain a low - level oscillation in the short, medium, and intraday periods, with an intraday tendency of slightly weak oscillation, mainly due to the game between expectations and reality [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all oscillatory, with the intraday being slightly weak, presenting a low - level oscillation state. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, causing the steel price to continue oscillating [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have stabilized. Rebar production has slightly increased but remains at an annual low, providing support for steel prices, though the sustainability needs to be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand is running steadily, with high - frequency demand indicators increasing but still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industries have not improved. Demand will continue to decline seasonally, putting pressure on steel prices. Currently, the supply and demand of rebar are running steadily, the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is the policy expectation. Under the game between expectations and reality, rebar will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is weak, and the view reference is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. In the long - term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts still anticipated. After continuous corrections, the current market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, and the support for treasury bond futures is strong. In the short - term, the current market risk - aversion sentiment is weak, the urgency of interest rate cuts in the short - term is not strong, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is also insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures have pressure above and support below, and will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].