1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the significant increase in the return of risk assets, the vicious cycle of low returns and slow asset appreciation caused by the severe bias of residents' wealth allocation towards deposits and fixed - income in the past few years will be reversed. Residents' wealth allocation will enter a new cycle, with the proportion of equity assets rising continuously in the long term, which will become the underlying force for China's economic recovery and reshape the Chinese financial market [21]. - The PMI data in August showed some improvement but the amplitude was average. Production was resilient, but demand needed further observation. The macro - narrative presented positive changes, which still required actual data verification. The bond market was still slightly unfavorable until the end of October, with interest rates having an upper limit. It was recommended to defend and seize opportunities in fluctuations and over - adjustments, and look for counter - attack opportunities after the end of October [21]. - The adjustment space of the bond market is limited, and allocation opportunities should be observed. As the stock market valuation rises, the relative cost - effectiveness of stocks and bonds will gradually change. The current interest rate adjustment space is limited, and the upper limits of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds are still around 1.75 - 1.8% and 2.05 - 2.1% respectively [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP growth rate in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter but higher than the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, slightly higher than the previous month and the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, slightly higher than the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. The growth rate of M1 increased significantly compared with the previous month and the same period last year, while the growth rate of M0 decreased slightly [1]. - In July 2025, the CPI was flat year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans was officially implemented on September 1st, and some bank executives were optimistic about its impact. Credit card installment business was not within the scope of interest subsidy [2]. - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development, planning to strengthen cooperation in digital economy development policies and new - generation communication technology [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - COMEX gold futures reached a new high of $3557.1 per ounce. The rise was driven by factors such as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, weak dollar, and central banks' gold purchases [3]. - On September 1st, international silver prices soared, with the COMEX silver price reaching $41.64 per ounce and the London spot silver price reaching $40.754 per ounce, a 14 - year high. The rise was driven by supply - demand fundamentals, Fed rate - cut expectations, and risk - aversion needs [3]. - Tianqi Lithium completed the industrialization preparation for lithium sulfide, a core raw material for next - generation solid - state batteries, and started a 50 - ton pilot project [3][4]. - In August 2025, the average price of tungsten powder in the Yangtze River reached over 575,000 yuan per ton, with a significant monthly increase [4]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - August, the price of rebar decreased by 0.2% month - on - month to 3261 yuan per ton, while the price of coke increased by 2.96% month - on - month to 1377.7 yuan per ton, a new high since mid - February [5]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On September 1st, Syria's oil export and the suspension of oil sales to India tightened the crude oil supply, and the weak dollar supported oil prices. US sanctions on Brazil and Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy facilities also affected the market [6][7][8]. - HSBC maintained the Q4 2025 Brent crude oil price at $65 per barrel, with risks from OECD inventory increases or OPEC+ production increases [7]. - In August, Russia's pipeline natural gas exports to Europe decreased by 2% month - on - month [7]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 1st, the central bank conducted 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan [11]. 3.3.2 Key News - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit achieved multiple results, including signing the Tianjin Declaration and approving the 2026 - 2035 development strategy [12]. - By the end of July, the bond market custody balance exceeded 190 trillion yuan, indicating the optimization of the financing structure and the enhancement of the financial system's resilience [12]. - Multiple banks in Shanghai adjusted mortgage interest rates, no longer distinguishing between first - and second - home loans [13]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - In the bond market, spot bonds and futures warmed up, with most bond yields falling by about 1bp, and treasury bond futures rising [16]. - The central bank's reverse repurchase decreased and turned to net withdrawal, but the inter - bank funds were generally stable [16]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate was adjusted down by 42 points [20]. - The US dollar index fell 0.18%, and most non - US currencies rose [20]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different institutions had different views on the bond market, including the long - term rise of equity asset allocation, the short - term unfavorable situation of the bond market, and limited adjustment space [21][22]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - On Monday, the A - share market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The turnover was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous and AI hardware sectors were strong, while the satellite Internet and large - finance sectors were weak [26]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.15%, with the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous sectors rising strongly and the automobile industry chain falling. Southbound funds had a net purchase of 119.42 billion Hong Kong dollars [26]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange optimized the margin collateral arrangement, adjusting the interest payment and fees of cash collateral and reducing the financing cost of non - cash collateral [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and intraday trends being oscillatory and on the stronger side [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The reference view is to run strongly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, macro factors have improved. Although the Southeast Asian production areas are in the peak rubber - tapping season, the actual supply output has decreased slightly year - on - year, and the supply pressure is lower than expected. The domestic auto market's production and sales are better than expected, the tire industry is still booming, the export growth rate has rebounded, and the external sales are optimistic, providing demand - side support. On the night of Monday this week, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.69% to 15,950 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillatory and stronger trend on Tuesday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and on the stronger side. The reference view is to run strongly [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the domestic synthetic rubber futures market has been dominated by supply - demand fundamental factors. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the improvement of macro sentiment, although the industrial factors of synthetic rubber are weak, in the context of long - short divergence, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract maintained an oscillatory and stronger trend on the night of Monday this week, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.38% to 11,910 yuan/ton. It is expected that the contract may maintain an oscillatory and stronger trend on Tuesday [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for power coal is to oscillate. The coal price is expected to run weakly in the near future, but the callback space may be limited due to the supply - side support from the "anti - involution" policy [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price and Market Analysis of Power Coal - In late August, the safety supervision in the main producing areas remained strict, especially with the approaching of the September 3rd parade, which inhibited coal mine production. Although the daily consumption of thermal coal remained high in the short term, the approaching of the off - season made terminal enterprises more wait - and - see, putting pressure on the coal price [5]. - As of August 22nd, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.264 million tons, with a significant monthly de - stocking of 3.705 million tons and 766,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The high - inventory advantage in the first half of the year has been basically digested [5]. - Due to the lack of support from the non - power end and the approaching end of the thermal coal peak season, the market atmosphere has weakened again [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillatory strength. The main reason is the intensification of Middle East geopolitical risks [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Trend - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory strength, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is strong operation. The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract rose 1.10% to 488.9 yuan/barrel in the night session on Monday. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory strong trend on Tuesday [5]. Core Logic - Recently, Middle East geopolitical risks have re - emerged. On Monday afternoon, there were reports that the Yemeni Houthi rebels attacked an Israeli oil tanker as retaliation for the Israeli air strikes on Yemeni Houthi officials. The Yemeni Houthi rebels also emphasized that they would escalate military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel in the future, which increased the expectation of Middle East geopolitical conflict risks and led to a recovery in crude oil premiums [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, showing a short - term, medium - term, and intraday trend of oscillation, with an intraday bias towards weak oscillation [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Aspects Price and Trend - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly rebounded in the night session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.68% to 2375 yuan/ton, but facing large upward pressure and expected to maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Tuesday [5] Market Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the methanol market returns to being dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, causing the price center to face a downward shift. Also, it's affected by the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and the suppression of weak industrial factors [5] Time - Period Definition and Classification - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. For intraday views, a decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and a rise of more than 1% is a rise. The concepts of strongly/weakly oscillating are only for intraday views, not for short - term and medium - term views [1][3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to show short - term strength with short - term rising, medium - term oscillation, and intraday oscillation - biased - upward trends, driven by rising interest - rate cut expectations and increased market risk - aversion [1][3] - Copper is expected to maintain a strong performance, with short - term rising, medium - term rising, and intraday oscillation - biased - upward trends, due to approaching Fed's September meeting, capital rotation, and the upcoming domestic industry peak season [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Short - term: Rising; Medium - term: Oscillation; Intraday: Oscillation - biased - upward; Reference view: Short - term strength. The upward movement of gold prices is mainly due to Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting, increased market risk - aversion caused by the slowdown of US and Chinese stock markets, and capital rotation. Technically, New York gold has broken through the upper limit of the oscillation range since the second quarter, while London gold is still within the range, and Shanghai gold is relatively weak due to RMB appreciation [1][3] Copper - Short - term: Rising; Medium - term: Rising; Intraday: Oscillation - biased - upward; Reference view: Short - term strength. The increase in copper prices is related to the approaching Fed's September meeting, capital rotation from the high - oscillating equity markets, and the upcoming domestic "Golden September and Silver October" industry peak season which may boost downstream demand [1][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on September 2, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis and inter - period data of power coal from August 26 to September 1, 2025. The basis was - 105.4 yuan/ton on August 26, gradually decreasing to - 113.4 yuan/ton on September 1, while the 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads were all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It provides the basis data of fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, and INE crude oil from August 26 to September 1, 2025, along with some ratio data such as the comparison between crude oil and asphalt [7] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 26 to September 1, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber was - 935 yuan/ton on August 26 and - 910 yuan/ton on September 1 [9] - **Inter - period Data**: The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber is 90 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from August 26 to September 1, 2025 are provided [10] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period Data**: The 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar is 43.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 26 to September 1, 2025 are given [20] - **Basis Data**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 26 to September 1, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar was 177.0 yuan/ton on August 26 and 125.0 yuan/ton on September 1 [21] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 26 to September 1, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper was 310 yuan/ton on August 26 and 100 yuan/ton on September 1 [28] 3.4.2 London Market - On September 1, 2025, the LME forward premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin) are presented. For example, the LME forward premium/discount of copper is (86.27) [35] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from August 26 to September 1, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was 86 yuan/ton on August 26 and 95 yuan/ton on September 1 [41] - **Inter - period Data**: The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads of multiple agricultural products such as soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [41] - **Inter - variety Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from August 26 to September 1, 2025 are provided [41] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 26 to September 1, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 3.59 on August 26 and 13.11 on September 1 [53] - **Inter - period Data**: The inter - period spreads of the next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view for financial futures in the stock index sector is that the market sentiment is positive, and the upward trend remains unchanged. However, there are short - term disagreements, and the stock index is expected to have a loose and volatile trend in the short term. For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Market Performance**: The stock indexes oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2777.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 52.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume is still at a high level, indicating an optimistic market sentiment [5]. - **Short - term Risk**: Some stocks have achieved large gains, and there is a risk of technical adjustment due to profit - taking of profitable funds. There is a need for capital rotation between high - and low - valued stocks [5]. - **Driving Forces**: The main driving forces for the stock index rebound are positive policy expectations and loose capital liquidity. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote the moderate recovery of price indices, and repair corporate profits. In terms of capital, the margin trading balance has risen rapidly, non - bank deposits have increased sharply, and long - term funds have continued to enter the market, driving up the logic of stock valuation repair [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 需求韧性趋弱，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，重大事件临近，钢厂生产受限，矿石需求持续下行，且钢厂利润收缩， 利好效应趋弱。此外，国内港口到货如期回升，而海外矿商发运同样高位攀升，海外矿石供应偏高， 即便内矿生产受限，矿石供应稳中有升。目前来看，铁矿石需求走弱，而供应稳中有升，矿石基本面 有所走弱，叠加估值相对偏高，预计矿价将承压震荡走弱，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the poor supply - demand pattern and the steel price is searching for the bottom weakly [2]. - In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, inventory has continued to increase, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. It is expected that rebar will continue the trend of searching for the bottom weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the poor supply - demand pattern and the steel price is searching for the bottom weakly [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The production of construction steel mills is active, and the rebar output has rebounded to the highest level this year, increasing the supply pressure. The demand for rebar has improved, with high - frequency indicators rising from the low level, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the improvement space is limited due to the lack of improvement in downstream industries. In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, inventory has continued to increase, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the rising cost and the expectation of the peak season [3].