Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of coking coal 2601 and coke 2601 is oscillatory, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being mostly oscillatory, and intraday views also showing a tendency to be oscillatory and slightly stronger [1]. - Coking coal futures are expected to maintain range - bound trading, and the回调 space may be relatively limited considering the long - term impact of the "anti - involution" policy [5]. - Coke futures' main contract oscillates downward due to weakened cost support, but the回调 space is also expected to be limited due to potential new positive factors on the supply side from the "anti - involution" policy [6]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Inventory**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1180.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The total inventory of coking coal within the statistical scope this week is 2332.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.26 million tons. Mines and ports are accumulating inventory, while coke enterprises and steel mills are reducing inventory [5]. - **Market Outlook**: With the phased realization of positive factors on the supply side of coking coal and no new driving force for the "anti - involution" policy, coking coal futures are expected to range - bound. The回调 space is relatively limited in the long - term [5]. Coke (J) - **Price**: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.68% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: As the steel market weakens, downstream operating pressure increases, and some steel mills start the first round of coke price increase, leading to more industry chain games. The cost support of coke weakens, causing the futures main contract to oscillate downward. However, new positive factors on the supply side are expected in the future, and the回调 space is limited [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily arbitrage data report for various futures varieties of Baocheng Futures on September 3, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of different commodities including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Power Coal - Basis data from August 27 to September 2, 2025, shows that the basis has been negative and gradually decreasing, from - 108.4 yuan/ton on August 27 to - 117.4 yuan/ton on September 2. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from August 27 to September 2, 2025, along with their ratios are presented. For example, on September 2, the basis of INE crude oil is 21.11 yuan/ton, and the ratio of crude oil/asphalt is 0.1378 [7] - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are provided. For instance, the basis of rubber on September 2 is - 870 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rubber is 100 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are shown. On September 2, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 2369 yuan/ton [10] Black Metals - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of rebar is 52.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are provided. On September 2, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 4.04 [19] - **Basis**: Basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are given. On September 2, the basis of rebar is 103.0 yuan/ton [20] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are provided. On September 2, the basis of copper is 410 yuan/ton [26][27] - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on September 2, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper is (69.58) [35] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: Basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are given. On September 2, the basis of soybeans No.1 is 90 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of various agricultural products are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 spread of soybeans No.1 is 47 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - variety**: Inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are shown. On September 2, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio is 2.74 [41] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: Basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 27 to September 2, 2025, are presented. On September 2, the basis of CSI 300 is 9.25 [53] - **Inter - period**: Inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 is - 6.2 [53]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - The steel futures prices stabilized overnight due to improved market sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. With increased supply pressure and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and the steel price is still under pressure. It is expected to continue the oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term: oscillating weakly; medium - term: oscillating; intraday: oscillating weakly. The view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the unimproved fundamentals and the pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment has improved, and the steel futures prices stabilized overnight. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. The production of construction steel mills is active, the rebar output has risen to a high for the year, and the supply pressure has increased. The high - frequency demand indicators of rebar have rebounded from a low level but are still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the demand improvement is not sustainable. The fundamentals of rebar are weak, and the industrial contradictions are accumulating. The low - inventory pattern has changed, but the cost increase and peak - season expectations are relatively positive factors. The rebar is expected to continue the oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of treasury bond futures is mainly for oscillatory consolidation, with limited upside and downside space. The overall view for TL2512 is oscillatory, with a short - term and mid - term oscillatory trend and an intraday oscillatory - weakening trend, due to the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1][5]. - Although the short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is insufficient, with structural easing to support technology and boost consumption, the future monetary policy environment is generally loose. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas has weakened the RMB exchange - rate depreciation pressure, leaving room for future interest rate cuts. The market interest rate is anchored by the policy rate, limiting the upside space of the market interest rate and the downside space of treasury bond futures [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is oscillatory, the mid - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory - weakening, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is oscillatory - weakening, the mid - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Yesterday, all treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back. The short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut is insufficient, with structural easing as the main approach. The strong risk appetite in the stock market has a siphoning effect on funds, suppressing bond - buying demand, limiting the rebound space of treasury bond futures. However, the future monetary policy environment is loose, and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas has weakened the RMB exchange - rate depreciation pressure, leaving room for future interest rate cuts. The market interest rate is anchored by the policy rate, limiting the upside space of the market interest rate and the downside space of treasury bond futures [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-09-03 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.40 | 49.30 | 49.10 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.10 | 50.30 | | 20250814 | 2025/07 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 11320.00 42251.00 | 7707.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250813 | 2025/07 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.80 | 12.00 | 12.00 | | 2025081 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 9 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：上涨 核心逻辑：昨日各股指走势有所分化，IH 与 IF 表现为震荡整理，IC 与 IM 指数表现为震荡下跌。沪 深京三市全天成交额 29124 亿元，较上日放量 1348 亿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Core Views - The 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain a volatile consolidation trend due to the divergence between bulls and bears in the rubber market, with improved macro - expectations competing against negative industrial factors [6] - The 2601 contract of domestic methanol futures may continue to lack the impetus to rebound and maintain a volatile and weak trend because of the decline in domestic coal futures prices and the weak supply - demand structure of methanol [6] - The 2510 contract of domestic crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and stable trend as the conflict between the Yemeni Houthi rebels and Israel escalates, increasing geopolitical risks and enhancing the crude oil premium [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 602,200 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.6% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.14% to 73,200 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.7% to 529,000 tons. The inbound rate of sample bonded warehouses increased by 2.9 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.1 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.6 percentage points [9] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points [9] - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. The growth rate of production and sales increased by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points compared with that from January to June [10] - In July 2025, China's automobile exports were 575,000, a year - on - year increase of 22.6%. From January to July 2025, China's automobile exports were 3.68 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [10] - In July 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 83,000, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 in the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 622,000, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [10] Methanol - In the week of August 29, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 82.31%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.31%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.9183 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and a significant increase of 170,000 tons compared with 1.7483 million tons in the same period last year [11] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 30.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.01%. The acetic acid operating rate was 81.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.22%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69% [11] - In the week of August 29, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.33%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 5.91% [11] - As of August 29, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 116 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton [11] - In the week of August 22, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 934,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 43,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 347,100 tons, and a significant increase of 144,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of August 28, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 333,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,800 tons, and a significant decrease of 62,300 tons compared with 395,800 tons in the same period last year [12] Crude Oil - In the week of August 22, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 411, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.439 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 57,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 139,000 barrels per day [12] - In the week of August 22, 2025, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 418 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.392 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.891 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.632 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 838,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 404 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 776,000 barrels [13] - The refinery operating rate in the United States was 94.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.3 percentage points [13] - As of August 26, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 109,472 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 10,737 contracts and a significant decrease of 73,698 contracts or 40.23% compared with the average in July. As of August 26, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 202,146 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 25,253 contracts and a significant decrease of 17,930 contracts or 8.15% compared with the average in July [14] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,000 yuan/ton | +50 yuan/ton | 15,870 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | - 870 yuan/ton | +40 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,257 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | 2,372 yuan/ton | - 13 yuan/ton | - 115 yuan/ton | +23 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 465.0 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 490.4 yuan/barrel | +6.9 yuan/barrel | - 25.4 yuan/barrel | - 6.8 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - The report lists relevant charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, crude oil basis, etc., with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][29][40]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 9 月 2 日 金融期权 股指走势分化 核心观点 今日各股指走势有所分化，上证 50 与沪深 300 指数表现为震荡整 理，中证 500 与中证 1000 指数表现为震荡下跌。沪深京三市全天成交额 29124亿元，较上日放量 1348 亿元。由于部分股票已经实现较大涨幅，获 利资金的止盈需求有所上升，因此前期涨幅较大的中证 500 与中证 1000 指 数存在技术性调整的风险。不过目前股市成交金额仍处于较高水平，股市风 险偏好整体仍偏向积极，中长期来看股市的上行逻辑仍存。反内卷政策与促 消费政策分别从供应、需求两端推动供需结构优化，促进价格指数温和回 升，促进企业利润修复。资金面，融资余额快速上升，非银存款激增，长期 资金持续入市，股市增量资金的持续流入推动股票估值修复逻辑升温。总的 来说，短期内市场资金有所分歧，短期内股指预计保持宽幅震荡为主。 目前期权隐含波动率持续回升，考虑到股指中长线向上，可以继续持 有牛市价差或比例价差温和看多。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 2 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：9 月 02 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1596.5 元/吨，日内录得 0.44%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 4.61 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 898 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1570 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周 环比下跌 2.68%。随着钢市走弱，下游经营压力加重，部分钢厂开启焦炭 首轮提涨，产业链博弈增加。此外，近期焦煤" ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - The main contract price of rebar oscillated, recording a daily decline of 0.16%. With both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, industrial contradictions have accumulated, inventory has continued to increase, and steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly, recording a daily decline of 0.36%. The demand for hot - rolled coil has some resilience, but the fundamentals have not substantially improved, and the market sentiment is poor. It is expected to continue the oscillating and weakening trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, recording a daily increase of 0.06%. The demand for iron ore has weakened, while the supply has increased steadily. The fundamentals of iron ore have weakened, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected that the ore price will be under pressure and oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - As of the end of August, the total amount of proposed use of special bonds to acquire idle stock land in 26 provinces and cities exceeded 610 billion yuan, and the actual issuance of special bonds was about 175.2 billion yuan. The bond - issuing progress accelerated in the third quarter [6]. - In the first half of 2025, nine major construction central enterprises all achieved profitability. The total revenue was 3,331.929 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.39%; the total net profit was 77.727 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.52% [7]. - In August 2025, 14 steel projects started or were put into production, including projects of Jinding Steel and Anhui Liugang starting, and projects of Quzhou Yuanli Metal, Hongyi New Materials, and Zhongnan Co., Ltd. being put into production [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products are presented, along with their price changes. For example, the national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,290 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan; the national average price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) was 3,424 yuan, a decrease of 5 yuan [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore futures are provided. For example, the closing price of rebar futures was 3,117 yuan, a decrease of 0.16% [11]. 4. Related Charts - Include charts of steel inventory (rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory), and steel mill production (247 - sample steel mill blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization rate, etc.) [13][18][26]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply has increased to a high level this year, and demand has improved slightly but remains at a low level in recent years. The fundamentals have not improved, inventory has increased, and steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [34]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply has slightly shrunk, and demand is weakly stable. There is some demand resilience, but the fundamentals have not substantially improved. It is expected to continue the oscillating and weakening trend [34]. - Iron ore: Demand has weakened, and supply has increased steadily. The fundamentals have weakened, and the valuation is relatively high. It is expected that the ore price will be under pressure and oscillate weakly [35].