Core Insights - The report indicates a strong short-term outlook for crude oil, driven by increased geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, overshadowing the negative impact of supply surplus in the oil futures market [5]. Summary by Sections Short-term Outlook - The short-term outlook for crude oil is characterized as "震荡" (fluctuating) with a strong bias, suggesting a potential for price increases due to geopolitical tensions [5]. Medium-term Outlook - The medium-term perspective remains "震荡" (fluctuating), indicating that while there may be volatility, the overall trend is not expected to change significantly in the near future [5]. Daily Perspective - The daily viewpoint is described as "偏强" (slightly strong), reflecting a positive sentiment in the market for crude oil prices, which are expected to maintain a strong performance [5]. Key Drivers - The core logic driving the current market sentiment includes renewed geopolitical tensions, particularly Israel's concerns over Iran's military expansion, which has heightened risks in the region. This has led to a rebound in domestic crude oil futures prices, despite ongoing supply pressures and accumulating global oil inventories [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 周末钢材现货价格弱稳运行，成交表现偏弱，相应的螺纹钢供需两端有所企稳，螺纹供应回升 但依旧是年内低位，给予钢价支撑，持续性有待跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求同样企稳，高频需求 指标有所增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，而下游行业也未好转，需求延续季节性走弱，继而承压钢 价。目前来看， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1] - Treasury bond futures are under pressure and have support, and will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "fluctuation and consolidation". Last Friday, treasury bond futures fluctuated and rebounded. Recently, the central bank has made a net injection of liquidity in the open market to support the year - end market liquidity. In the long run, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy environment next year tends to be loose, with interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts still expected. Currently, the market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, so the support for treasury bond futures is strong. In the short term, the market risk - aversion sentiment is weak, and macro - demand has strong resilience, so there is no urgent need for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is also insufficient [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 宽幅震荡 | 基本面未改善，上行驱动不强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 现货结构性矛盾未解，叠加补库预期发酵，矿价重回震荡区间上沿，但铁矿石供需格局并未好转， 钢厂生产趋弱，且钢厂盈利状况未改善，矿石需求表现偏弱，仍易承压矿价，相对利好则是低厂库使 得节前补库预期偏强。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅回升，而矿商发运刷新年内单周新高，海外矿石 供应积极，而内矿供应 ...

品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-22 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着国内云南和海南天胶产区陆续进入停割季，未来国产全乳胶供应预期逐渐下降 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围好转，焦煤低位反弹 | | 焦炭 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 下游冬储预期支撑，焦炭期货低 位反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 12 月 19 日当周，全 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, along with the core logics for these views. Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term and copper is expected to be strong in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: Last week, the gold price fluctuated upwards. Since the China - US summit in Busan at the end of October, the gold price has been in a high - level oscillation state and is approaching the high at the end of October [3]. - **Market Conditions**: The US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, which is negative for gold. However, the implementation of the yen interest rate hike led to an increase in market liquidity, which is positive for gold. The New York gold repeatedly failed to break through around $4380, and the Shanghai gold faced significant technical pressure at the 980 - yuan level [3]. - **Viewpoints**: The short - term view is strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory and strong [1][3]. Copper - **Price Trends**: Last week, the copper price first declined and then rose, and the trading volume increased as the price rose [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The implementation of the yen interest rate hike improved the macro - environment, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. High copper prices restricted consumption, causing the basis and calendar spread to continuously weaken, and the futures price showed a pattern where the near - term contract was weaker than the long - term contract. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and $0/lb [4]. - **Viewpoints**: The long - term view is strong, the medium - term view is strong, and the intraday view is strong [1][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The warm temperature in southern regions and the weak demand compared to stable supply are the main factors dragging down coal prices. Coal price stabilization is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Situation - As of December 18, 2025, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 719 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42 yuan/ton. The total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2934.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 63.2 million tons and 180.6 million tons higher than the same period last year [4] Supply Aspect - Near the end of the year, some private coal mines stop production after completing their annual targets, while state - owned large mines maintain normal production. Under the framework of heating - season supply guarantee, the domestic thermal coal production runs stably [4] Demand Aspect - In mid - December, the temperature in southern coastal cities in China remained high, with the maximum temperature in some areas still exceeding 20°C. Although the daily coal consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces increased seasonally, the increase was moderate [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rubber**: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai Rubber Futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The intraday price center of gravity slightly moved down to around 15,190 yuan/ton, closing 1.40% lower at 15,190 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread widened to 35 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices remain volatile within a range [6]. - **Methanol**: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures 2605 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price reached a maximum of 2,176 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,144 yuan/ton, closing 1.10% lower at 2,148 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread narrowed to 32 yuan/ton. Due to the still large supply pressure of domestic methanol, the continued rise of methanol futures was blocked, and it started a volatile consolidation trend [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2602 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, increasing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 430.3 yuan/barrel and fell to a minimum of 424.8 yuan/barrel, closing 0.40% lower at 426.6 yuan/barrel. The conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, and Venezuelan crude oil faces the risk of restricted exports. The enhanced geopolitical premium drives the oil price to rebound, but the hidden danger of oversupply still exists. In the short term, crude oil futures may temporarily stabilize [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons or 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. The warehousing rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 2.42 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points; the warehousing rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 0.57 percentage points, and the ex - warehouse rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points [9]. - In the week of December 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The production of maintenance enterprises gradually resumed, driving the capacity utilization rate. However, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will run weakly and steadily this week [9]. - In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. The logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points [10]. - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. As of now, the heavy - truck market has achieved eight consecutive months of growth from April to November, with an average growth rate of up to 42%. Cumulatively, from January to November this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 84.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.95%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0398 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63,700 tons, and a significant increase of 148,300 tons compared with 1.8915 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 31.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%. The dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 8.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 73.81%, a week - on - week increase of 6.53%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 59.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%. As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [11]. - As of December 18, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 205 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 86 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 507 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East China and South China regions in China remained at 1.0201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258,900 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 88,400 tons. As of the week of December 17, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 391,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 9,500 tons compared with 381,700 tons in the same period last year [12]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US was 414, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a year - on - year decrease of 68 [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the daily average US crude oil production was 13.843 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 239,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 424.4 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.274 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.401 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, the US, was 20.862 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 742,000 barrels; the US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 412.2 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 249,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate remained at 94.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 3.0 percentage points [13]. - As of November 18, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 69,176 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 8,792 contracts and a significant increase of 9,001 contracts or 14.96% compared with the average of 60,175 contracts in October. On the other hand, as of December 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 113,859 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 32,588 contracts and a significant decrease of 41,329 contracts or 26.63% compared with the average of 155,188 contracts in November [13]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 15,190 yuan/ton | - 130 yuan/ton | - 290 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,145 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | 2,148 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | - 3 yuan/ton | + 1 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 389.1 yuan/barrel | - 3.1 yuan/barrel | 426.6 yuan/barrel | - 2.8 yuan/barrel | - 37.5 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | [14] 3.3 Related Charts - **Rubber**: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][16][18][21][23][26]. - **Methanol**: The report includes charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [29][31][33][35][37][40]. - **Crude Oil**: The report offers charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [44][46][47][49][51][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a 0% daily increase, and the trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply and demand of rebar are stable, but the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still under pressure. The positive factor is policy expectations, and rebar will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a 0.24% daily decrease, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened significantly, the industrial pattern has not improved, and the inventory at a high level has limited reduction. Prices continue to face pressure. The positive factor is policy expectations, and the price of hot - rolled coil is expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated strongly with a 0.52% daily increase, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, the demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the supply remains high. The fundamentals of iron ore are not good, and ore prices are under pressure at high levels. However, the structural contradiction in the spot market remains unresolved, providing support for ore prices. Ore prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillating range. Be wary of the trading logic switching to the reality [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In November, the national average construction machinery utilization rate was 46.95%, a month - on - month increase of 1.39 percentage points, and the workload increased by 10.03% month - on - month. The top ten provinces in terms of comprehensive utilization rate are Anhui, Zhejiang, Hainan, Jiangxi, Beijing, Hebei, Liaoning, Henan, Shanxi and Ningxia. 19 provinces had a utilization rate of over 50% [7]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association expects the terminal consumption market in December to show a moderate recovery, but it is difficult to form a significant "year - end surge" market. The full - month passenger car terminal sales in December are expected to be about 2.35 million, and the full - year passenger car terminal retail sales in 2025 are expected to reach 23.55 million, basically the same as in 2024 [8]. - Australian mining company Genmin Limited completed a private placement financing of approximately $17 million to support the subsequent development of its Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon. After the financing, the company achieved a debt - free state, and its balance sheet was further improved [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,270, 3,170 and 3,325 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are 3,270, 3,180 and 3,296 respectively; the price of Tangshan steel billet is 2,950, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,100. The price changes of different varieties are also provided [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,119 with a 0.00% change, the trading volume is 686,113 with a decrease of 529,436, and the open interest is 1,568,866 with a decrease of 7,077. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract is 3,269 with a - 0.24% change, the trading volume is 279,994 with a decrease of 306,133, and the open interest is 1,191,178 with an increase of 1,622. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 780.0 with a 0.52% change, the trading volume is 187,722 with a decrease of 134,655, and the open interest is 534,905 with an increase of 16,750 [12]. Relevant Charts - Charts show the inventory changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore (including national 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel mill inventory, etc.), as well as the production situation of steel mills (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, etc.) [14][19][28] 后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are stable, inventory is well - depleted, production of construction steel mills is stable, weekly production increased by 29,000 tons, but short - process steel mill profits are improving, and supply is expected to increase. Demand remains weak, and rebar prices are under pressure. With policy expectations, rebar will continue to oscillate [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: Supply and demand continue to weaken, weekly production decreased by 168,000 tons, inventory is high, and demand continues to decline. The price of hot - rolled coil is expected to continue to oscillate and find the bottom with policy expectations [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is weak, terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and supply remains high. Ore prices are under pressure, but the structural contradiction in the spot market provides support. Ore prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillating range [38].