Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 18, the coke futures market sentiment turned from weak to strong, and the main contract rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream restocking rhythm [5][34]. - On December 18, the coking coal futures market sentiment also turned from weak to strong, and the main contract rebounded from a low level. It is advisable to closely monitor whether there are new supply - favorable policies in the coal industry [5][34]. Summary of Each Section Industry News - China has re - implemented export license management for steel products after 16 years, aiming to strengthen monitoring, statistics, and analysis of steel product exports and promote high - quality development of the steel industry [7]. - On December 18, the auction prices of coking coal in the Linfen market mainly declined. The cumulative listed volume was 461,000 tons, with a non - successful bid rate of about 28.4% and an average decline of about 21 yuan/ton. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1,570 yuan/ton | Flat | - 5.99% | - 7.10% | - 9.77% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,430 yuan/ton | - 0.69% | - 1.38% | - 11.73% | - 12.80% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,125 yuan/ton | - 3.02% | - 12.11% | - 4.66% | - 8.54% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,480 yuan/ton | 1.37% | - 5.73% | - 0.67% | - 3.90% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,650 yuan/ton | Flat | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [9] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,603.5 yuan/ton | 5.39% | 1,618 yuan/ton | 1,532 yuan/ton | 21,000 | 5,447 | 12,791 | - 3,916 | | Coking Coal | | 1,126.5 points | 6.07% | 1,136.5 points | 1,057.5 points | 1,700,451 | 752,463 | 501,331 | 4,320 | [14] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, as well as production and operation data of steel mills, coking plants, and coal washing plants, including 230 independent coking plant coke inventories, 247 steel mill coking plant coke inventories, port coke total inventories, etc. [15][16][19] Market Outlook - Coke: The futures market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and the main contract has rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream restocking rhythm [5][34]. - Coking coal: The futures market sentiment has turned from weak to strong, and the main contract has rebounded from a low level. It is advisable to closely monitor whether there are new supply - favorable policies in the coal industry [5][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index futures is mainly range - bound, with the short - term for IH2603 being in a range - bound state, the medium - term being in a range - bound state, and the intraday being on the stronger side. The overall short - term view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is also range - bound, with the intraday being on the stronger side and the medium - term being in a range - bound state [1][5]. - The core logic is that policy - driven positive expectations are gradually fermenting. The stock market had a callback and was close to the lower limit of the range, which was attractive to medium - and long - term investors. Policy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year, providing strong support for the stock index. However, due to the low pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target, there is insufficient motivation for policy intensification this year, and the policy is expected to take effect in the first quarter of next year [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Stronger | Range - bound | Policy - driven positive expectations are gradually fermenting [1]. | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is on the stronger side, the medium - term view is in a range - bound state, and the reference view is range - bound [5]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index had an intraday rebound after an early - morning consolidation. The total stock market turnover was 181.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.59 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock market's previous callback made it attractive to medium - and long - term investors. Policy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority next year, providing support for the stock index. Due to the low pressure to achieve this year's economic growth target, policy intensification is expected to occur in the first quarter of next year, and currently, the stock index is still in a range - bound state, but market risk appetite will gradually recover as policy - driven positive expectations ferment [5].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空博弈加剧，焦煤低位反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 冬储补库预期支撑，焦炭期货低 位反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛 ...

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP in Q3 2025 grew 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year [1] - The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in November 2025 was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in November 2025 was not provided, with the previous month at 24885.00 billion yuan and the same period last year at 23288.00 billion yuan [1] - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in November 2025 were 10.6%, 4.9%, and 8.0% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing a decline compared to the previous month [1] - New RMB loans in November 2025 were 3900.00 billion yuan, up from 2200.00 billion yuan in the previous month but down from 5800.00 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in November 2025 increased 0.7% year - on - year, up from 0.2% in the previous month and the same period last year; PPI decreased 2.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative growth rate in November 2025 was - 2.6%, down from - 1.7% in the previous month and 3.3% in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 was 4.0%, down from 4.3% in the previous month but up from 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - Export and import values in November 2025 increased 5.9% and 1.9% year - on - year respectively, showing an improvement compared to the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - From January to November 2025, national general public budget revenue was 200516 billion yuan, up 0.8% year - on - year; tax revenue was 164814 billion yuan, up 1.8% year - on - year; stamp duty was 4044 billion yuan, up 27% year - on - year, with securities trading stamp duty at 1855 billion yuan, up 70.7% year - on - year. General public budget expenditure was 248538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year - on - year [2] - In 2026, the market generally expects a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in interest rates, with structural tools focusing on key areas [2] - On December 17, 2025, 41 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis.沪镍, 郑棉, and casting aluminum alloy had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber,沪锡, and international copper had the smallest [3] 2.2 Metals - On December 17, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract closed at 108600 yuan/ton, up 7.61% for the day, driven by improved supply - demand fundamentals and positive capital entry [4] - The platinum futures main contract on the GZEX hit the daily limit, rising 7%, with a nearly 19% increase in the past 4 trading days, driven by multiple factors [5] - On December 17, 2025, the spot silver price broke through 65 and 66 US dollars/ounce, with a year - to - date increase of about 130%, driven by supply - demand imbalance, Fed rate cuts, and capital inflows [5] - On December 17, 2025, the tungsten powder price reached 1000000 yuan/ton, up 216.5% from the beginning of the year [5] - As of December 16, 2025, tin, zinc, copper, and aluminum inventories increased, while lead inventory decreased, and some metal inventories remained at low levels [6] - As of December 2, 2025, COMEX gold and copper futures speculators increased their net long positions [7] - As of December 17, 2025, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.08% [7] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The NDRC and other departments released the "Benchmark and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Coal Utilization (2025 Edition)" [9] - Westpac warns that iron ore prices will plunge 20% next year due to China's steel production cuts and new supply [9] - The IEA's "2025 Coal Report" shows that global coal demand in 2025 increased 0.5% to a record 88.5 billion tons but is expected to decline slowly [9] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The European Parliament approved the EU's plan to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027 [10] - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 127.4 million barrels last week, and other inventory data also changed [10] - Dallas Fed survey shows that enterprises expect the WTI crude oil price to reach 62 US dollars/barrel by the end of 2026 [10] - Israel approved a 112 - billion - shekel natural gas agreement with Egypt [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - The Indian market regulatory body may relax commodity derivatives rules for agricultural products [11] - Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in December 2025 are expected to increase [11] - China will impose anti - dumping duties of 4.9% - 19.8% on EU pork and by - products [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On December 17, 2025, the central bank conducted 468 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan [13] 3.2 Key News - From January to November 2025, national general public budget revenue and expenditure data were released, along with expectations for 2026 monetary policy [14] - In November 2025, 30 key cities' second - hand housing transactions increased 14% month - on - month, and real estate bond financing increased 28.5% year - on - year [16] - On December 17, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar reached a new high, and the Fed has room for rate cuts [18] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market continued to recover, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declining, and some corporate bonds and convertible bonds rising [20] - The money market interest rates showed mixed trends, and the yields of European and US bonds also changed [21][23][24] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - On December 17, 2025, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0460, and the US dollar index rose 0.18% [25] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities expects the wealth management scale to reach over 35 trillion yuan in 2026, with "fixed income +" products as a key growth point [27] - Yangtze River Fixed Income analyzes the potential solutions for local government financing platform's operating debt risks [27] 3.6 Today's Reminders - On December 18, 2025, 232 bonds will be listed, 119 will be issued, 92 will make payments, and 162 will pay principal and interest [28] 4. Stock Market Key News - On December 17, 2025, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.19%, and sectors such as energy metals and computing power hardware performing well [29] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.92%, with lithium stocks and some sectors rising, and southbound funds having a net purchase of 7.9 billion Hong Kong dollars [30]

Report Summary of Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil futures contract 2602 is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5]. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle Viewpoints - For the crude oil 2602 contract, the short - term trend (within one week) is volatile, the medium - term trend (two weeks to one month) is volatile, and the intraday trend is strong [1]. Price and Market Conditions - Saudi Arabia has lowered the selling price of its main crude oil varieties to Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, indicating increasing supply pressure in the crude oil market. The weakening of the crude oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread also shows a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5]. Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela has increased the geopolitical risk premium [1][5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and strong trend with a slight rebound. It is expected that on Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures will maintain a strong pattern [5].

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-18 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 --------------------------------------- ...

| 动力煤现货 | | | | 震荡 | 北港库存逐渐回升，港口煤价继 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 续走弱 | 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：12 月以来，国内动力煤价格加速下跌，截至 12 月 11 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力煤平仓 价 761 元/吨，12 月内已经累计下跌 57 元，本轮动力煤的下跌受多重利空共同驱动。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 18, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, showing the basis, inter - period and inter - variety spreads of different commodities [1][5][20][26][41][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - The report shows the basis data of power coal from December 11 to December 17, 2025. The basis on December 17 was - 83.4 yuan/ton, showing a continuous decline trend compared with previous days [1][2] 2. Energy Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - It provides the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 11 to December 17, 2025. For example, the basis of fuel oil on December 17 was - 19.33 yuan/ton [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 17 was - 340 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was - 45 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are shown. On December 17, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2110 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of螺纹钢 on December 17 was 206.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of螺纹钢, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. The 5 - 1 month spread of螺纹钢 was - 13.0 yuan/ton [19] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of螺/矿, 螺/焦炭, 焦炭/焦煤, and 螺 - 热卷 from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are given. On December 17, the 螺/矿 ratio was 4.03 [19] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of copper on December 17 was - 660 yuan/ton [28] (2) London Market - On December 17, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin in the London market are presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (15.30) [33] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are shown. The basis of soybeans No.1 on December 17 was - 70 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of various agricultural products are provided, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 39 yuan/ton [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. on December 17, 2025 are given. The ratio of soybeans No.1 to corn was 1.85 [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 11 to December 17, 2025 are presented. The basis of CSI 300 on December 17 was 1.68 [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are shown. The next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 194 [52]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2605 are shock, shock, and shock - weak respectively, with an overall view of wide - range shock. The core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and the ore price is running at a high level [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The terminal consumption of ore is declining, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, putting pressure on the ore price. The supply of ore is high, with a significant increase in port arrivals in China and a new high in weekly shipments from miners. The ore price is running strongly at a high level due to warm market sentiment and lingering positive factors, but with weak demand and high supply, the upward driving force is not strong, and it will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock - weak, and the overall view is wide - range shock. The core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and the ore price is running at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Terminal ore consumption is decreasing, and the profitability of steel mills has not improved, so the demand for ore remains weak, which pressures the ore price. The supply of ore is high, with a large increase in port arrivals in China and a new high in weekly shipments from miners. Although domestic ore supply has shrunk, the overall supply is still high. The ore price is running strongly at a high level due to warm market sentiment and lingering positive factors, but the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong. It will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the low probability of short - term interest rate cuts and the existence of medium - and long - term easing expectations [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of TL2603 are oscillate, oscillate, and be weak respectively, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the probability of short - term interest rate cuts is low, while medium - and long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. After continuous corrections, support for treasury bond futures began to emerge. From a macro - fundamental perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand persists, the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, and interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts are still expected. Currently, the market interest rate implies a weak expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the internal and external uncertainty risk factors are weak, the market's risk - aversion sentiment is not strong, and there is no need for further interest rate cuts within the year, so the short - term upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient [5].