Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests that methanol 2601 will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation weakly" respectively. The overall price of methanol is expected to face downward pressure due to the weak supply - demand structure [1][5]. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - The price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly decreased by 0.89% to 2349 yuan/ton in the night session last Friday. It is predicted that the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Monday [5]. Driving Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol prices are now dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, causing the price center to face downward pressure. Additionally, the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and the suppression of weak industrial factors also contribute to the weak trend of methanol [5].

Report Overall Summary - The report focuses on the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures, providing views and core logic for each [1][5][7]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content. Report's Core View - In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to show a weakening trend, with a "weak operation" reference view [1][5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Trend Outlook**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and weakening, with an overall view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The market is driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian and domestic rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, leading to high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has a falling inventory, reduced operating load, blocked exports, and a slowdown in growth. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals dominate. The 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed 0.03% lower at 15,825 yuan/ton on the night session of last Friday and is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Trend Outlook**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and weakening, with an overall view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The market is based on supply - demand fundamentals. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, but supply pressure has slightly increased. The domestic tire industry has a falling inventory, reduced operating load, blocked exports, and a slowdown in growth. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals dominate. The 2510 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed 0.55% lower at 11,790 yuan/ton on the night session of last Friday and is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Monday [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Goldman Sachs maintains an "Overweight" stance on Chinese stocks; Standard Chartered Bank maintains an "Overweight" rating on Chinese stocks in its "2025 H2 Global Market Outlook" [38] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic sentiment generally continues to expand, with the official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI in August showing month - on - month increases [2][20] - The overseas business of futures companies is accelerating development, driven by policy support and the concentrated overseas expansion of Chinese enterprises [3] - The bond market is expected to have limited adjustment space and may continue to consolidate in the short term [26] - The A - share market may show a phased shock consolidation feature in September, with market hotspots in a rotation state [38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity PMI was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points [1][2][20] - In July 2025, M1 and M2 increased by 5.6% and 8.8% year - on - year respectively, showing an upward trend [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Personal consumer loan interest subsidies will be available from September 1st, with multiple banks promoting related products [2] - Many domestic commodity futures showed inventory changes on August 29th, with some increasing and some decreasing [4][5] - China and the US held economic and trade talks, emphasizing cooperation and the management of differences [6] 3.2.2 Metals - As of mid - August 2025, the price of electrolytic copper increased by 0.94% month - on - month [7] - London's basic metals generally rose on August 29th, with domestic copper demand expected to improve [7] - International precious metal futures generally closed higher due to weak US economic data [8] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - In H1 2025, the coking industry faced difficulties, with most listed coke companies reporting losses [9] - As of mid - August 2025, the prices of most coal products increased, while the price of rebar decreased slightly [9] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China is promoting policies to support private enterprises in major projects and consumer replacement [11][12] - China has achieved large - scale thermal recovery of offshore heavy oil, with production hitting a record high [12] - As of mid - August 2025, the prices of most oil and gas products decreased [12] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - August 2025, the prices of most agricultural products increased [14][15] - China is strengthening the management of crop varieties and protecting permanent basic farmland [15] - A batch of Russian rapeseed oil was imported into Chengdu, marking a new breakthrough in international grain and oil trade [16] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 22.731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day repurchase agreements will mature on Friday [18] - On August 29th, the central bank conducted 782.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, resulting in a net investment of 421.7 billion yuan [19] 3.3.2 Important News - The economic sentiment in China continues to expand, and policies are being promoted to support private enterprises and consumer replacement [20] - The sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises from January to August decreased by 13.3% year - on - year, and the market may recover moderately in September [22] - Many small and medium - sized banks have recently cut deposit rates [23] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The bond market was generally strong, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declining slightly [26] - Most Vanke bonds rose, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell [26] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB rose against the US dollar, while the US dollar index fell slightly [29][30] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - After Powell's speech, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased [31] - The Trump administration may interfere with the Fed's personnel, potentially leading to monetary easing [31] 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On September 1st, 121 bonds will be listed, 64 bonds will be issued, 82 bonds will be paid, and 604 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [33][34] 3.4 Stock Market News - Next week, 29 A - shares will be lifted from lock - up, with a total market value of 18.877 billion yuan [35] - In H1 2025, Shanghai - listed companies' revenues decreased slightly, while profits increased [35] - As of the end of August, the scale of Shanghai ETFs exceeded 3.7 trillion yuan, with significant capital inflows [36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil market is expected to run weakly. In the short - term, medium - term and intraday, the trend of crude oil 2510 is mainly oscillatory, with a weakening tendency in the intraday view. The bearish fundamentals dominate as the macro bullish expectations are digested [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly rose 0.21% to 483.9 yuan/barrel in the night session last Friday. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weakening trend on Monday [5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an energy outlook report. Due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, and with OPEC+ increasing production, the global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. As a result, crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. This leads to the bearish fundamentals taking the lead [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report predicts that thermal coal will maintain a weak operation in the near term. Although the decline space of coal prices in this round may be limited due to the supply - side support brought by the "anti - involution" policy [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - As of August 22, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.3264 billion tons, with a significant monthly destocking of 370.5 million tons, and the inventory was 76.6 million tons lower than the same period last year. The high - inventory advantage in the first half of the year has been basically digested [5]. Supply - side Factors - In late August, safety supervision in the main production areas remained strict. Especially with the approaching of the September 3rd parade, the frequency and thoroughness of coal mine safety supervision increased, and coal mine production was still restricted [5]. Demand - side Factors - Although the daily consumption of thermal power coal remained at a high level in the short term, with the approaching of the off - season, the wait - and - see sentiment of terminal enterprises became stronger, and coal prices were under downward pressure. As the peak season of thermal coal is coming to an end and the non - power end lacks support, the market atmosphere has turned weak again [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily arbitrage data for various futures products including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures on August 29, 2025, along with historical data from August 25 - 28, 2025 [1][2][7][9]. 3. Summaries by Category Power Coal - Displays the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) from August 25 - 29, 2025. The basis decreased from - 97.4 on August 25 to - 111.4 on August 29, while the spreads remained 0.0 during this period [1][2]. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - Presents the basis and price ratios for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and other energy products from August 25 - 29, 2025. For example, the basis of INE crude oil changed over these days [7]. Chemical Commodities - The basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 25 - 29, 2025 are provided. The basis values of different chemicals fluctuated during the period. - Also shows the inter - delivery spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) and inter - commodity spreads for chemicals [9][10]. Black Metals - Provides inter - delivery spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, as well as inter - commodity spreads (such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc.) from August 25 - 29, 2025 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 25 - 29, 2025 are given. The basis values of these metals changed over the days [27]. London Market - Displays LME spreads, Shanghai - London price ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals on August 29, 2025 [33]. Agricultural Products - Includes basis, inter - delivery spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month), and inter - commodity spreads for various agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. from August 25 - 29, 2025 [39]. Stock Index Futures - Presents the basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 25 - 29, 2025, as well as inter - delivery spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) are mainly "oscillating". The core logic for coking coal is that the increase in wait - and - see sentiment leads to its oscillating operation, and for coke, it is the stalemate between long and short positions resulting in range - bound oscillations [1]. - For coking coal, the recent decline in domestic production has been priced in the futures market, and imported coal has compensated for the production shortage. With a lack of new supply - side positive drivers in the short term, the futures market is in wide - range oscillations. Considering the long - term impact of the "anti - involution" policy, the callback space may be limited [5]. - For coke, due to the lack of new drivers in the "anti - involution" theme of coking coal, the market has entered the actual supply verification stage, causing the cost support to weaken and driving the futures main contract to oscillate within a range. Considering the long - term impact of the "anti - involution" policy, the subsequent supply side may have new positive factors, and the callback space is expected to be limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference | Variety | Contract | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 2601 | Oscillating | Oscillating (medium - term: bullish; intraday: bearish) | Oscillating | Oscillating | Wait - and - see sentiment increases, coking coal oscillates [1] | | Coke | 2601 | Oscillating | Oscillating (medium - term: bullish; intraday: bearish) | Oscillating | Oscillating | Stalemate between long and short positions, coke oscillates in a range [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Coking Coal (JM)**: Intraday view is oscillating bearish, medium - term view is oscillating bullish, and the reference view is oscillating. The core logic is that the decline in domestic production has been priced, imported coal compensates for the shortage, and there is a lack of new positive supply - side drivers in the short term, leading to wide - range oscillations. The callback space may be limited due to the "anti - involution" policy [5]. - **Coke (J)**: Intraday view is oscillating bearish, medium - term view is oscillating bullish, and the reference view is oscillating. The core logic is that the lack of new drivers in the coking coal "anti - involution" theme weakens the cost support and drives the futures main contract to oscillate within a range. The callback space is expected to be limited due to the "anti - involution" policy [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望 | 降息预期升温，利好金价，关注震 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 荡区间技术压力 | | 铜 | 2510 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 短线看强 | 海外降息预期升温，国内临近旺 | | | | | | 偏强 | | 季，产业支撑增强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment is positive, and the upward trend of stock index remains unchanged. In the short - term, the stock index is expected to maintain a loose and volatile trend. The rebound momentum of the stock index comes from policy - side favorable expectations and loose liquidity in the capital market [5]. - For IH2509, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is strongly volatile, and the overall view is upward, supported by policy - side favorable expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: upward; intraday: strongly volatile; overall view: upward. The core logic is that the favorable policy expectations on the policy side provide strong support [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Last Friday, the stock indexes fluctuated and consolidated. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2830.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 170.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the stock market is still at a high level, indicating that the overall market sentiment is still optimistic [5]. - The rebound momentum of the stock index comes from policy - side favorable expectations and loose capital - side liquidity. Anti - involution and consumption - promotion policies optimize the supply - demand structure, promote the moderate recovery of the price index, and repair corporate profits. The recent decline in market interest rates, loose liquidity, and increased willingness of funds to allocate to the stock market are reflected in the significant increase in margin trading balance, non - bank deposits, and M1 growth rate [5]. - In the short - term, pay attention to changes in market sentiment, such as trading volume and margin trading volume. Be aware of the risk of technical adjustments due to profit - taking by profitable funds as some stocks have risen significantly [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求持续下行，且钢厂利润收缩，叠加限产短期 扰动，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽回落，但海外矿商发运维持高位，按船期推算后续 澳巴矿到货仍将回升，海外矿石供应相对偏高，而内矿生产受限，矿石供应平稳运行。目前来看，铁 ...