Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the TL2509 variety is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the overall view is "oscillation" due to the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1] - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient because the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, the central bank focuses on implementing existing policies and provides structural easing for consumer and technology - related enterprises, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market weakens the demand for treasury bonds. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the view reference is "oscillation". The core logic is the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that last Friday, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly. In the short term, the low possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut, the central bank's focus on existing policies and structural easing for specific enterprises, and the rising risk appetite in the stock market lead to insufficient upward momentum of treasury bond futures. But the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the rebar 2510 contract is expected to continue its oscillatory bottom - seeking trend. It advises to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being the accumulation of industrial contradictions that put downward pressure on steel prices [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is also oscillatory and weak. It is recommended to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of industrial contradictions leading to downward pressure on steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices declined slightly with average trading volume. Rebar production has risen to a new high for the year, increasing supply pressure. Although rebar demand has improved, the improvement's sustainability is questionable as the downstream situation has not improved. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, inventory is rising, and steel prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost increases and expectations of peak - season demand. The report expects rebar to continue its oscillatory bottom - seeking trend and advises to monitor demand performance [3].

3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 1 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：国内市场仍处于弱现实和强预期的博弈之中，中美关系变化对进口大豆采购节奏和南美大豆升 贴水的影响，持续向豆粕市场传导，交易逻辑将向产业链弱现实回归。随着市场预期向弱现实回归，豆粕 期价承压下行。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 29 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 基本面强弱不一，钢矿走势分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价再度走弱，录得 0.83%日跌幅，量仓收缩，移仓换月 中。现阶段，供需双增局面下螺纹钢基本面并未改善，库存增加，产业 矛盾持续累积，钢价仍易承压，相对利好则是成本抬升与旺季需求预 期，多空因素博弈下预计螺纹钢延续震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情 况。 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.21%日跌幅，量仓扩大，移仓换 月完成。目前来看，热卷需求韧性尚可，且短期限产扰动未退，供需格 局表现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For coke, the "anti-involution" theme of coking coal has seen no new drivers recently. The coking coal market has entered the actual supply verification stage, with market divergence between bulls and bears. The cost support for coke has weakened, leading to the range-bound operation of the futures main contract. Considering the medium- and long-term impact of the "anti-involution" policy, there may still be new positive factors on the supply side in the future, and the callback space for coke in this round is expected to be limited [4][32]. - For coking coal, the total inventory of coking coal within the statistical scope this week is 23.3207 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 162,600 tons. Coal mines and ports have increased their inventories, while coke enterprises and steel mills have reduced their inventories, indicating an increase in downstream wait-and-see sentiment and a decline in procurement enthusiasm. At present, the positive factors on the coking coal supply side have been partially realized. Before there are new drivers for the "anti-involution" theme, the coking coal futures are expected to maintain range-bound operation. Considering the medium- and long-term impact of the "anti-involution" theme, the callback space for coking coal in this round may be relatively limited [4][32]. Summary by Sections Industry News - The National Mine Safety Administration issued a notice on implementing the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations," which will come into effect on February 1, 2026 [6]. - On August 29, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex-factory price of low-sulfur main coking coal concentrate (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1,470 yuan/ton including tax [7]. Spot Market - For coke, the ex-warehouse price of quasi-primary coke at Rizhao Port is 1,570 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3.29%, a month-on-month increase of 10.56%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.10%. The ex-warehouse price of quasi-primary coke at Qingdao Port is 1,480 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.68%, a month-on-month increase of 5.71%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.64% [8]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1,180 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.84%, a month-on-month increase of 2.61%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.01%. The price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,580 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3.27%, a month-on-month increase of 6.04%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.60%. The price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,630 yuan/ton, with no week-on-week change, a month-on-month decrease of 1.21%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.54% [8]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke futures active contract is 1,643.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87%. The highest price is 1,680.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1,635.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 22,608 lots, a decrease of 4,754 lots, and the open interest is 43,440 lots, an increase of 1,739 lots [12]. - The closing price of the coking coal futures active contract is 1,151.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13%. The highest price is 1,180.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1,139.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 1,398,041 lots, a decrease of 48,937 lots, and the open interest is 738,966 lots, a decrease of 2,121 lots [12]. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including those of independent coking plants, ports, and steel mills, as well as charts on domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal thread and screw purchases, wash coal plant production, and coking plant operation [13][24][30]. 后市研判 - The analysis and expectations for coke and coking coal are the same as the core viewpoints, with coke expected to have limited callback space and coking coal expected to maintain range-bound operation considering the "anti-involution" policy and inventory changes [32].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic energy and chemical commodity sector showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weak downward movement. The cost support for energy and chemical commodities weakened due to the decline of domestic and international crude oil futures prices. Additionally, the supply - demand structure in the downstream of the energy and chemical industry was weak, and there was still pressure for inventory accumulation. Some products like fuel oil, styrene, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, and PVC maintained the inventory accumulation trend, while asphalt, PTA, and plastics maintained the de - stocking rhythm. Overall, after the previous macro - positive factors were gradually digested, the energy and chemical commodities shifted to a market dominated by their own supply - demand fundamentals [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Energy and Chemical Commodity Market General Situation - The domestic energy and chemical commodity sector had a weak downward trend this week, influenced by the decline of crude oil prices and weak downstream supply - demand [4]. Data Charts of Some Energy and Chemical Products - **Rubber**: There are charts of rubber basis, 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, and other related data [6][7][9] - **Methanol**: Charts include methanol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin开工率, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [19][21][27] - **Crude Oil**: There are charts of crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery开工率, and WTI and Brent crude oil net position changes [32][34][36] - **Fuel Oil**: Charts cover domestic high - sulfur fuel oil basis, high - sulfur fuel oil spread, domestic fuel oil production, Singapore fuel oil inventory, global major shipping indices, and Shanghai Futures Exchange high - sulfur fuel oil futures inventory [45][47][48] - **Asphalt**: There are charts of domestic asphalt basis, asphalt spread, domestic asphalt production, domestic refinery asphalt装置开工率, domestic asphalt imports, and Shanghai Futures Exchange asphalt weekly inventory [59][61][62] - **PTA**: Charts include domestic PTA basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic PTA装置开工率, domestic PTA weekly production, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange PTA warehouse receipts, and PTA enterprise weekly inventory [73][75][77] - **Ethylene Glycol**: There are charts of ethylene glycol basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic ethylene glycol开工率, domestic ethylene glycol weekly production, polyester industry chain开工率, and East China ethylene glycol inventory [85][87][89] - **Styrene**: Charts cover domestic styrene basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic styrene开工率, domestic styrene factory inventory, domestic styrene registered warehouse receipts, and East + South China port styrene inventory [97][99][100] - **Plastic**: There are charts of LLDPE basis, 9 - 1 spread, domestic PE and LLDPE monthly production, domestic polyethylene imports, Dalian Commodity Exchange plastic warehouse receipts, and domestic plastic products [111][112][113] - **PP**: Charts include polypropylene basis, 9 - 1 spread, Taiwan polypropylene production, domestic PP imports, domestic polypropylene downstream开工率, and domestic polypropylene warehouse receipts [122][124][126] - **PVC**: There are charts of domestic PVC basis, 9 - 1 spread, ethylene production, domestic PVC imports, Dalian Commodity Exchange PVC warehouse receipts, and housing completion and sales area cumulative values [132][133][134]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, down from 5.4% in the previous quarter but up from 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but up from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - The year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in July 2025 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing an upward trend compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of exports and imports were 7.2% and 4.1% respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The central government plans to establish a sustainable urban construction and operation financing system, and local governments are required to coordinate various funding channels [2] - Market regulators aim to strengthen law enforcement, guide enterprises to compete on quality, and establish a long - term mechanism to prevent irrational competition [2] - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered RMB deposit interest rates, and deposit rates are expected to continue to decline [3] - China's total social logistics volume in the first seven months of this year was 201.9 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, but the growth rate slowed down [4] 2.2 Metals - On August 28, international precious metal futures generally rose due to concerns about the Fed's independence and inflation data [5] - In H1 2025, the lithium battery industry faced a supply - demand mismatch, and enterprise performance was polarized. For example, Tianqi Lithium expected to turn a profit, while Shengxin Lithium Energy and Jiangte Motor saw an increase in losses [5] - As of August 27, zinc, lead, and tin inventories decreased, while copper and nickel inventories increased [6] - As of August 28, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.57%, or 5.44 tons, to 967.94 tons [7] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Dalian Commodity Exchange expanded the maximum quantity of standard warehouse receipts for coking coal at designated factories [8] - Coking enterprises in Henan Province implemented independent production restrictions [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 28, the U.S. crude oil futures contract rose. U.S. crude oil inventory decline exceeded expectations, and supply - side tensions were affected by Russia's export plan and Ukraine's attacks [9] - Russia's oil exports to India are expected to increase by 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day in September [9] - Norway adjusted its natural gas production reduction plan [9] - Goldman Sachs expects an increase in oil surplus and a decline in Brent crude oil prices by the end of 2026 [10] - Russia imposed a temporary ban on gasoline exports from September 1 to 30 [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - The EU and the U.S. reached a tariff agreement, with the EU canceling some tariffs on U.S. industrial products and the U.S. reducing tariffs on EU automobiles [11][12] - India extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs until the end of December, which may support global cotton prices but also affect domestic cotton demand [12] - Canada's estimated rapeseed and wheat production in 2025 increased compared to last year [12] - The EU's forecast for the ending inventory of common wheat in the 2025/2026 season increased, while the available corn production decreased [13] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On August 28, the central bank conducted 416.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 163.1 billion yuan [14] 3.2 Key News - The central government released an opinion on promoting high - quality urban development, focusing on financing system construction [15][16] - China and Canada agreed to promote bilateral economic and trade relations through the Sino - Canadian Economic and Trade Joint Committee [16] - The list of the top 500 private enterprises in China in 2025 was released, with higher entry thresholds and increased business revenue and profit [17] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to support foreign trade enterprises in terms of finance, employment, and insurance [17] - China's total social logistics volume from January to July increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with strong demand in high - end manufacturing and green industries [17] - In July, China issued 1.2135 trillion yuan of local government bonds [17] - Multiple small and medium - sized banks lowered RMB deposit interest rates [18][19] - Residents' deposits are shifting to funds and wealth management products [19] - United Credit Rating was severely warned for violating rating consistency principles [19] - Japan's 2 - year Treasury bond auction demand hit a new low since 2009 [20] - The U.S. Q2 GDP and core PCE price index were revised upwards [20] - Fed Governor Lisa Cook sued President Trump over an attempted dismissal [20] - Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September [20] - Some bond - related events include equity transfers and management changes [21][22] - Some overseas credit ratings were adjusted [22] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The A - share market's strength pressured the bond market, with rising bond yields and falling bond futures prices [23] - Most Vanke bonds rose, and the yields of bank "secondary and perpetual bonds" mostly increased [23] - The central bank's net investment led to a slightly looser inter - bank market liquidity [23] - The yields of U.S. and European bonds showed different trends [26][27] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose on August 28, and the U.S. dollar index fell [28] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the supply of securities firms' long - term subordinated bonds is expected to be stable, and short - term subordinated bonds have investment value [30] - CITIC Securities' research report shows that industrial enterprise profits improved in July, and some industries are expected to be structural highlights [30] - Changjiang Fixed Income indicates that the convertible bond market has diverse sources of incremental funds, and the market is showing a strong trend [31] 4. Stock Market News - A - share indices rebounded on August 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.14%, and the market turnover was 3 trillion yuan [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell on August 29, with net selling by southbound funds [33] - In H1 2025, mergers and acquisitions in the A - share market heated up, with traditional industries, intelligent manufacturing, and energy power being the top three popular sectors [34]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have both weakened. Steel mills' production is slowing down, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined from its peak. With short - term production restrictions and shrinking steel mill profits, ore demand is expected to decline. The previous main logic supporting the iron ore price has changed. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased again, and overseas miners' shipments have also declined from their peak. However, according to shipping schedules, the arrival volume from Australia and Brazil will increase, and the overseas ore supply will remain high, while the domestic ore supply is relatively limited, showing a stable operation. Overall, the resilience of ore demand provides support for the price, but the positive effect is weakening due to shrinking steel mill profits and production restrictions. The supply is stable at a high level, and the fundamentals of iron ore have not changed much. It is expected that the high - valued iron ore price will continue to fluctuate, and the performance of steel prices should be monitored [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 13,763.02, a decrease of 82.18 compared to the previous week, an increase of 105.12 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 1,609.36 compared to the same period [2]. - 247 - steel mill import ore inventory is 9,007.19, a decrease of 58.28 compared to the previous week, a decrease of 4.90 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 10.72 compared to the same period [2]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrival volume is 2,393.30, a decrease of 83.30 compared to the previous week, an increase of 152.80 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 173.60 compared to the same period [2]. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume is 3,315.80, a decrease of 90.80 compared to the previous week, an increase of 114.90 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 94.70 compared to the same period [2]. Demand - 247 - steel mill daily average hot metal production is 240.13, a decrease of 0.62 compared to the previous week, a decrease of 0.58 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 19.24 compared to the same period [2]. - 45 - port daily average ore - evacuation volume is 318.64, a decrease of 7.10 compared to the previous week, an increase of 15.93 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 18.65 compared to the same period [2]. - 247 - steel mill import ore daily consumption is 296.10, a decrease of 1.74 compared to the previous week, a decrease of 3.36 compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 23.92 compared to the same period [2]. - Main - port iron ore trading weekly average is 93.85, a decrease of 7.73 compared to the previous week, an increase of 5.05 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 15.63 compared to the same period [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of rebar have not improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, with continuous inventory growth and accumulated industrial contradictions. Steel prices continue to be under pressure. Against the backdrop of the cost increase and the expectation of peak - season demand, rebar is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Rebar weekly production increased by 59100 tons week - on - week to a high for the year, due to the resumption of production of construction steel mills and the return of production transfer. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 percentage points [1] Demand - Rebar weekly apparent demand increased by 94100 tons week - on - week, but the high - frequency daily transactions remained sluggish. Both were at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the improvement space of demand was questionable [1][2] Inventory - Rebar total inventory was 6.2339 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163500 tons; factory inventory was 1.6962 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 49100 tons; social inventory was 4.5377 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 212600 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Since mid - August, the spot and futures prices of rebar have weakened again, and the futures price has dropped significantly. The market is under the influence of multiple negative factors, and under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the rebar price is under pressure, but the cost increase may limit the downside space. It is expected that the steel price will show a trend of bottom - seeking through oscillation, and the performance of peak - season demand should be focused on [2][4] Summary According to Related Content Price Performance - Since mid - August, the futures price of the rebar main contract has dropped from 3,274 yuan/ton to a minimum of 3,097 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of nearly 5.4%. The spot price in the East China mainstream area has dropped by 80 - 110 yuan/ton during the same period, and the basis has strengthened [2] Market Negative Factors - Market sentiment has changed, the "anti - involution" trading logic has cooled down, and the previously leading varieties have started high - level adjustments. The black industry chain is restricted by its weak fundamentals, and the overall upward momentum is insufficient. The near - month rebar contracts are suppressed by the delivery logic, and the long - position willingness to take delivery is low [2] Inventory Situation - As of the week of August 22, the total rebar inventory was 6.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 198,500 tons, and it has accumulated for four consecutive weeks. The inventory sales ratio is 3.116, reaching a high in recent years. The inventory in some major consumption areas has accumulated rapidly and is higher than that of the same period last year [3] Production Status - The weekly output of rebar is 214,650 tons, which has declined for two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decrease of 65,300 tons. The reduction mainly comes from long - process steel mills. Currently, long - process steel mills are in good profit condition, and short - process steel mills have not significantly reduced production. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 75.69%, still at a high level this year [3] Demand Performance - As of the week of August 22, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 194,800 tons, remaining at a low level in recent years. The cement outbound volume and concrete shipment volume are also at low levels, with year - on - year decreases of 16.5% and 7.8% respectively. The real - estate market is still in weak recovery, and the basis strengthening may lead to profit - taking, which will increase demand - side pressure [4]