Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton present a neutral outlook. The 25/26 annual production and consumption data from different institutions show a relatively balanced supply - demand situation. The market is expected to enter the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, and if the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract can hold above the 14,000 mark, there will be further upward momentum. In the short term, it will fluctuate in the range of 14,050 - 14,250 [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the reduction of previous mutual tariffs between China and the US and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season of consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions' reports on the 25/26 annual cotton production and consumption data vary. For example, the ICAC 8 - month report shows a production of 25.9 million tons and consumption of 25.6 million tons; the USDA 8 - month report shows a production of 25.392 million tons, consumption of 25.688 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.093 million tons. Customs data shows that in July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 25/26 annual data shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,234, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1109, indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast of the ending inventory in July for the 25/26 annual is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position has decreased. The main trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the market sentiment is optimistic. If the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract can stabilize above the 14,000 mark, there will be further upward momentum. In the short term, it will fluctuate in the range of 14,050 - 14,250 [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The report provides the production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2024/25 (July and August data), as well as the monthly adjustments and year - on - year changes [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 annual, the global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is basically flat at 2.56 million tons; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26 (July forecast), data such as the beginning inventory, sowing area, harvest area, yield per unit area, production, import, consumption, ending inventory, domestic cotton 3128B average price, and Cotlook A index are provided [14]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View Short - term geopolitical concerns are falling, and the upward momentum for oil prices in the future is weak. As the peak season is about to end, the pressure on oil prices from fundamentals is increasing. The short - term price of crude oil 2509 is expected to run in the range of 484 - 494, and long - term investors can hold long positions. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Fundamental analysis of crude oil 2509: Geopolitical news is neutral; the basis shows that the spot is at par with the futures, which is bullish; inventory data is bearish; the disk shows a bearish trend; and the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil are decreasing, which is bearish [3] - Short - term price range for crude oil 2509 is 484 - 494, and long - term long positions can be held [3] 2. Recent News - The US is trying to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky by the end of August to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5] - Hamas is willing to accept a 60 - day cease - fire proposal to end the Gaza war and secure the release of Israeli hostages, while Israel has not commented officially [5] - Investors expect Fed Chairman Powell to give dovish signals at the Jackson Hole symposium, but there is a risk of disappointment [5] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6] - Bearish factors: Possibility of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire; continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies [6] - Market drivers: Short - term reduction in geopolitical conflicts and increased risk of trade tariff issues; in the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude oil settlement price rose from 65.85 to 66.60, an increase of 1.14%; WTI crude oil settlement price fell from 62.80 to 62.70, a decrease of 0.16%; SC crude oil settlement price fell from 487.0 to 485.2, a decrease of 0.37%; Oman crude oil settlement price fell from 68.19 to 67.64, a decrease of 0.81% [7] - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd price fell from 67.98 to 67.53, a decrease of 0.66%; WTI price rose from 62.80 to 63.42, an increase of 0.99%; Oman crude oil price fell from 68.47 to 67.95, a decrease of 0.76%; Shengli crude oil price fell from 64.44 to 64.00, a decrease of 0.68%; Dubai crude oil price fell from 68.41 to 67.90, a decrease of 0.75% [9] - **Inventory Data**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 151.9 million barrels in the week ending August 8, and EIA inventory increased by 303.6 million barrels in the same period [3] 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the net long position of the WTI crude oil fund was 116,742, a decrease of 25,087 from the previous period [18] - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of August 12, the net long position of the Brent crude oil fund was 206,547, a decrease of 34,430 from the previous period [20]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-19甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：内地方面，宏观面引发业者悲观情绪，需求端暂无进一步利好提升下，长协贸易商出货意愿明显增加。与 此同时，内地尤其是产区甲醇企业库存偏紧对价格有一定托底作用，预计本周内地行情震荡偏弱整理。港口方面，近期 双焦的大幅波动对甲醇期现货市场负反馈展现，支撑市场的利好因素反转，同时港口库存延续累库预期叠加主力下游需 求缺位，预计本周港口市场或维持震荡行情，观望政策端口及消息层面的的良性引导；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2320元/吨，01合约基差-76，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：截至2025年8月14日，华东、华 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - For LLDPE and PP, the expected market trend for today is oscillatory. The "anti - involution" policy - driven price increases have subsided, and the decline in crude oil prices, along with the current demand and inventory situations, all contribute to this expected trend [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. Caixin's July manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but the market has returned to fundamentals. Short - term oil prices are oscillating downward. The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the film production start - up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7240 (-10), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -94, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.3%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 505,000 tons (-71,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. After the price increase from the "anti - involution" policy subsides, along with the decline in crude oil prices and lower - than - expected agricultural film demand, and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will oscillate today [4]. - **Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factors are weak demand and the decline in crude oil prices. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has improved slightly. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7060 (-40), with overall neutral fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 12, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.2%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 588,000 tons (+1,000), indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is oscillating. After the price increase from the "anti - involution" policy subsides, along with the decline in crude oil prices, slightly improved downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will oscillate today [7]. - **Factors**: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factors are weak demand and the decline in crude oil prices. The main logic is based on cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown various trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 18.695 million tons in 2018 to 35.845 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also had different trends. The production capacity increased from 22.455 million tons in 2018 to 44.185 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent urea futures market has been oscillating. After the "anti-involution" sentiment subsided, the trend has returned to the fundamentals. The domestic supply of urea, including daily production and operating rates, remains at a relatively high level, and overall inventory is high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are both low, and agricultural demand is weak. The domestic urea market still shows a significant oversupply situation. Although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1850 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish. It is expected that the urea futures will continue to oscillate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Domestic supply has high daily production and operating rates, and overall inventory is high. Industrial and agricultural demand is weak, showing significant oversupply. Export profit has declined but remains strong, and export policies are not liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1850 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 96, with a premium/discount ratio of 5.2%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, export policies are not liberalized beyond expectations, and domestic oversupply is still significant. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: International prices are strong, which is a bullish factor. High operating rates and daily production, as well as weak domestic demand, are bearish factors. The main logic is based on international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Deliverable | 1850 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1754 | 17 | Warehouse Receipts | 3573 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1860 | 0 | Basis | 96 | -17 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.457 million tons | -0.2 | | Henan Spot | 1850 | 28 | UR01 | 1754 | 17 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 0.968 million tons | -5.1 | | FOB China | 2942 | - | UR05 | 1790 | 7 | UR Port Inventory | 0.489 million tons | 4.9 | | - | - | - | UR09 | 1731 | 10 | - | - | - | [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The market is waiting for more news from the US and Europe regarding the Russia-Ukraine war. In the short term, it will be in a state of stable oscillation. Fuel oil will follow this trend, with FU2509 operating in the range of 2670 - 2730 and LU2510 in the range of 3450 - 3500 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has slightly declined, partly due to concerns about an abundant supply of short - term arbitrage cargoes. However, traders expect the market fundamentals to gradually stabilize as the market shifts to trading September second - half cargoes. For high - sulfur fuel oil, although tight shipping schedules support the downstream bunker market demand, traders are worried that the decline in power generation demand after the Middle - East summer peak may increase the supply pressure in Singapore [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 162 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 75 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 2. Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: There may be an intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The price of the FU main contract futures decreased by 5 to 2700, a decline of 0.18%. The price of the LU main contract futures increased by 11 to 3459, an increase of 0.32%. The basis of FU decreased by 21 to 162, a decline of 11.24%. The basis of LU decreased by 33 to 75, a decline of 30.84% [5]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1 to 486, an increase of 0.21%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 3 to 505, an increase of 0.60%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.18 to 387.97, a decline of 0.05%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1 to 482.5, an increase of 0.21%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 0.18 to 368.24, a decline of 0.05%. The price of Singapore diesel decreased by 8.84 to 606.32, a decline of 1.44% [6]. 4. Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: On August 13, the inventory was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory has shown fluctuations in recent months [8].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. The short - term is expected to be mainly in a volatile trend. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory [2][5]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high; bearish [2] - **Basis**: Hebei Shahe heavy - quality soda ash spot price is 1260 yuan/ton, SA2601 closing price is 1386 yuan/ton, basis is - 126 yuan, futures are at a premium to the spot; bearish [2] - **Inventory**: National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward; neutral [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increase; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: Soda ash fundamentals have strong supply and weak demand, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive**: The peak summer maintenance period is coming, and production will decline [3] - **Negative**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash; the sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5] 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1395 | 1280 | - 115 | | Current Value | 1386 | 1260 | - 126 | | Change Rate | - 0.65% | - 1.56% | 9.57% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe market is 1260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [11] 3.5 Supply in Fundamentals - **Production Profit**: North China ammonia - soda process profit is - 25.60 yuan/ton, East China co - production process profit is - 41 yuan/ton, and soda ash production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14] - **开工率 and Production**: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 87.32%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 76.13 tons, including 42.97 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with production at a historical high [17][19] - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [21] 3.6 Demand in Fundamentals - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.73% [24] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons, and the operating rate of 75.34% is stable [27] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Photovoltaic glass prices continue to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [33] 3.7 Inventory in Fundamentals National soda ash factory inventory is 189.38 tons, an increase of 1.54% from the previous week, and inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [37]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 美豆天气变数仍存，豆粕偏强震荡 （豆粕周报8.11-8.15） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，美豆天气短期尚有变数和空头回补，美豆重回千点关口上方震荡 等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内大豆震荡回落，美豆 回落带动和技术性震荡整理，进口大豆到港仍旧偏高和新季国产大豆增产预期压制盘面， 短期受中美关税谈判后续和进口大豆到港旺季预期交互影响。中性。 2.基差：现货4300，基差244，升水期货。偏多 3.库存:油厂大豆库存710.56万吨，上周655.59万吨，环比增加8.38%，去年同期714.78万吨， 同比减少0.59%。偏多 4.盘面：价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil oscillated at a low level. The prices of NYMEX WTI crude oil, ICE Brent crude oil, and INE crude oil futures all declined. The approaching meeting between US and Russian leaders eased investors' concerns about reduced crude oil supply due to "secondary sanctions" on Russia, pressuring oil prices. However, the market remains pessimistic about the medium - and long - term fundamentals of crude oil [3]. - Due to OPEC's production increase causing a sharp drop in oil prices, US shale oil producers are idling drilling platforms and reducing spending, which may lead to a significant decline in US crude oil production [4]. - After the Alaska Summit, geopolitical uncertainties still exist. Macroeconomically, the upcoming release of the Fed meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting may pave the way for a September interest rate cut, providing some support to commodities. Oil prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for the negotiation results [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review - **Price Performance**: NYMEX WTI crude oil futures closed at $62.29 per barrel, down 1.67% for the week; ICE Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.45 per barrel, down 1.31% for the week; INE crude oil futures closed at 484.1 yuan per barrel, down 1.16% for the week [3]. - **Supply - side Information**: OPEC's monthly report showed that OPEC+ crude oil production increased by 335,000 barrels per day to 41.94 million barrels per day in July, but the increase was lower than the production recovery agreement reached by 8 OPEC+ countries. OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day and lowered its forecast for non - OPEC supply growth by the same amount [3]. - **Fund Flow**: In the week ending August 12, the net long positions of speculative traders in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 34,430 contracts to 206,547 contracts; the net long positions of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased by 25,087 contracts to 116,742 contracts [3]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump and Putin held a face - to - face meeting in Alaska. Although Trump said the meeting was "extremely productive" and they reached a consensus on most issues, no final agreement to end the conflict was reached. Putin said the meeting atmosphere was "constructive" and some non - public agreements had been reached [3]. - **US Shale Oil Situation**: US shale oil producers are idling drilling platforms and reducing spending due to OPEC's production increase and falling oil prices. The number of hydraulic fracturing units for shale oil and gas wells dropped to a four - year low last week, and producers cut about $1.8 billion from their capital expenditure plans in two quarters. The EIA predicts that US crude oil production will decline next year [4]. - **US - India Relations**: The US may impose secondary tariffs on India, depending on the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Putin. Tensions between the US and India have intensified as India increased its imports of cheap Russian crude oil after the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 2. Related News - Not provided separately in the content 3. Outlook - Geopolitical uncertainties remain after the Alaska Summit. The upcoming Fed meeting minutes and Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting may support commodities. Oil prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term, waiting for the negotiation results. The recommended short - term trading range is 480 - 510, and long - term long positions can be held with stop - loss plans [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties declined this week. For example, the price of UK Brent Dtd dropped from $72.01 to $69.29, a decrease of 3.79% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: Cushing inventory and EIA inventory data are provided, showing the changes in inventory levels over different time periods [10][11]. 5. Position Data - **CFTC Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of speculative traders in WTI crude oil futures decreased from 141,829 contracts on August 5 to 116,742 contracts on August 12, a decrease of 25,087 contracts [17]. - **ICE Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of speculative traders in ICE Brent crude oil futures decreased from 240,977 contracts on August 5 to 206,547 contracts on August 12, a decrease of 34,430 contracts [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The market continued to rise this week with a good long - position pattern. The fundamentals of natural rubber are bullish. Although the downstream tire operating rate and finished - product inventory are not ideal, the decline of the visible inventory in Qingdao and the firm raw material prices in the producing areas provide support. Considering the upcoming traditional consumption peak season and the absence of new macro - level negatives, the market is expected to enter a seasonally bullish trend. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset and buy on dips [2][3][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Review - The prices of RU2601, NR2510, and BR2509 futures contracts all increased this week. RU2601 rose by 2.28%, NR2510 by 1.97%, and BR2509 by 2.61%. The market continued to recover, with a good long - position pattern. The fundamentals are bullish, and the bullish pattern is expected to continue [3]. 3.2 Spot Market Review - The price of Shanghai Yunnan 2023 state - owned full - latex rubber with 9% tax was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week. - The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,240 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week. - The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 11,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week [4]. 3.3 Inventory Situation Review - The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 2,859 tons to 213,188 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 3,650 tons to 179,930 tons [5]. 3.4 Market Structure - The basis weakened this week because the futures price increased more [6]. 3.5 Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market continued to rise this week with a good long - position pattern. - The raw material prices in Thailand all increased this week, with the largest increase in cup rubber. - The operating rates of tire enterprises varied. The operating rate of all - steel tires increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased. The inventories of both semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. - The fundamentals of natural rubber are bullish. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset and buy on dips [7][8].