Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton continued to oscillate and rebound. Positive news from China-US negotiations and previous price over - decline led to price recovery. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous negative news has been gradually digested. The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased. After a round of rebound, the futures main contract 01 is consolidating in the short - term between 13,500 - 13,700 [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a slight increase in the purchase price of seed cotton and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, a slight reduction in export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton continued to oscillate and rebound. The expected national cotton output is 728 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to ICAC's September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both 25.5 million tons. According to USDA's September report, the output in the 2025/26 season is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October report on the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Slightly increased purchase price of seed cotton and year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [7]. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, a slight reduction in export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Supply and Demand Forecast (September)**: In the 2025/26 season, the global output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the global output is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data for China**: In the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [16]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold long positions on rubber futures [1][2][8] Core Viewpoints - The market is dominated by sentiment this week, with prices rising and then falling without breaking through the technical resistance level. The natural rubber fundamentals remain bullish, and the price correction this week is not a new downward trend. It is recommended to continue holding long positions [2][3][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - RU2601 opened at 15330, reached a high of 15670, a low of 15030, and closed at 15085, with a decline of 1.63%. NR2512 opened at 12480, reached a high of 12770, a low of 12190, and closed at 12230, with a decline of 2.2%. BR2512 opened at 11100, reached a high of 11155, a low of 10525, and closed at 10585, with a decline of 4.81%. The natural rubber market rose and then fell this week, and the price failed to break through the technical resistance level, with sentiment dominating the trend [3] 2. Spot Market Review - The quoted price of 2023 state - owned whole latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, is 14800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. The quoted price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 2050 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week. The quoted price of BR9000 in Shanghai is 10925 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from last week [4] 3. Inventory Situation Review - This week, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 1425 tons to 162025 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 3120 tons to 120990 tons [5] 4. Market Structure - The basis strengthened this week due to the decline in futures prices and the rise in spot prices [6] 5. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The price rose and then fell this week without breaking through the technical resistance level. The prices of Thai raw materials rose across the board this week, with a large increase in latex. The operating rate of tire enterprises declined slightly. In terms of tire enterprise inventories, the semi - steel tire inventory remained unchanged, and the all - steel tire inventory decreased. The release of the 14th Five - Year Plan in China and the expected easing of Sino - US trade conflicts drove market sentiment, but the final trade agreement was lower than market expectations, causing financial asset prices to fall. The natural rubber market fluctuated with the market, rising first and then falling. The market was dominated by sentiment last week, and the natural rubber fundamentals remain bullish. The domestic visible inventory continued to decrease, and the operating rate of tire enterprises was at a high level. The price correction this week is not a new downward trend, and a bullish view on the future market is maintained, suggesting to continue holding long positions [7][8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures first rose and then fell. The main contract SA2601 closed at 1,225 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous week. The supply of soda ash is abundant, with stable operation of plants, few maintenance enterprises, and expected continuous increase in supply. The downstream demand is average, with large capital pressure. As of October 30, the national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory is at a historically high level. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,225 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous value; the main basis was - 55 yuan/ton, up 12.24% [8]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,170 yuan/ton, down 0.85% from the previous week [14]. - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - alkali method was - 101.70 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method was - 203 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [17]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 86.89%, and the weekly output was 757,600 tons, including 419,800 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level. The weekly production heavy - alkalization rate was 55.41% [20][22][24]. - Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, with large production plans this year. In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [5][25]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 99.78% [28]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, and the operating rate of 76.35% was stable. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was 89,300 tons, an increase of 650 tons from the previous week [31]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.702 million tons, a decrease of 0.01% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [38]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [39]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance season is approaching this year, and the output is expected to decline [4]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level; the production of downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [5][7]. 3.7 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand has declined, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the glass futures first declined and then rose. The closing price of the main contract FG2601 decreased by 0.82% compared to the previous week, reaching 1083 yuan/ton. The spot price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe was 1048 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week [2][8][13]. - The glass supply has stabilized at a low level and is showing signs of recovery. The demand from the terminal real - estate sector remains weak, and the glass fundamentals are characterized by stable supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a downward - biased oscillation [3]. - Influenced by the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. However, the terminal real - estate demand is still weak, and the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has faded. The glass is expected to mainly operate with wide - range oscillations [5][6][7]. Summary by Directory Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1092 yuan/ton to 1083 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.82%. The spot benchmark price dropped from 1052 yuan/ton to 1048 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The main basis decreased from - 40 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, a decline of 12.50% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass sheets in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, was 1048 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous week [13]. Fundamentals - Cost and Profit No specific content for cost and profit analysis provided other than the title. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%. The number of operating production lines is at a historically low level for the same period [23]. - The daily melting capacity of float glass nationwide was 161,300 tons, which is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and started to recover [25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [29]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of float glass enterprises nationwide was 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.24% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [43]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. In the short term, it is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound pattern. The final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations rumors also influence the market [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2400 - 2460 range. Its fundamentals are neutral, with the market affected by soybean meal and waiting for the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping result. The basis is positive as the spot price is higher than the futures price. Inventory is decreasing both week - on - week and year - on - year, which is positive. The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving down, considered neutral. The main long positions are decreasing with capital outflow, and the short - term outlook is a return to the oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply expected to be tight in the short term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established with a 75.8% import deposit. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and the geopolitical conflict in Russia and Ukraine may support commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the addition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season for domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 23rd to October 31st, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 2991 to 3048, and the trading volume ranged from 5.35 to 15.08 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2470 to 2530, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.3 million tons on October 29th. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices and spot prices had different trends, with futures prices showing a bottom - up trend and spot prices relatively stable. Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4702 on October 22nd to 2955 on October 31st [13][15][17]. 5. Position Data - Not specifically elaborated in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The view is that rapeseed meal will oscillate in the 2400 - 2460 range. The strategy is to pay attention to the development of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and China - Canada trade relations [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices showed a volatile rebound, with a stronger domestic market than the international market, and the near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded more strongly than the far - term ones, possibly due to the impact of typhoons on production in Guangxi [4]. - The global sugar production is increasing, and there is an expected surplus in the new year. Short - term external sugar prices are weak, while domestic Zhengzhou sugar prices are relatively strong. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and international trends of Zhengzhou sugar's main 01 contract is unsustainable. The pressure around 5500 - 5600 increases, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market rises [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar prices showed a volatile rebound, with a stronger domestic market than the international market, and the near - term contracts of Zhengzhou sugar rebounded more strongly than the far - term ones [4]. - As of the first half of October in the current crushing season in central - southern Brazil, the cumulative sugar production reached 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [4]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons; ISO estimated a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast [4]. - By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Prompt - **Likely Positive Factors**: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of Coca - Cola's formula in the US to use sucrose [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Global sugar production increase, expected surplus in the new year, the external sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand. For example, ISO expects a supply gap of 20,000 tons (basically balanced), StoneX expects a surplus of 2.77 million tons, Czarnikow expects a surplus of 6.2 - 7.5 million tons, etc. [34] - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 11.2 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, the consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [36] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Import Data**: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4][7] - **Production and Consumption Data**: By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6% [4] 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling is increasing and is near the historical average level, while demand recovery remains low, but cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 9000 - 9200 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production scheduling is continuously decreasing, and the demand-side shows a continuous decline in production across silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, with overall demand in a continuous recession. Cost support has stabilized. The polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 55620 - 57200 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 87,000 tons, a 7.44% decrease from the previous week, with demand remaining sluggish [6]. - **Cost**: The cost support has increased during the dry season. The production of sample oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang is in a loss of 3144 yuan/ton [6]. - **Basis**: On October 31, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.24%, and major port inventory increased by 0.81% [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Position**: The net position of the main contract is short, with an increase in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon production was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production for November is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 14.24GW, a 3.32% decrease from the previous week; inventory was 189,300 tons, a 2.49% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss. In October, battery cell production was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease from the previous month; last week, the inventory of battery cell external sales factories was 6.02GW, a 15.21% decrease from the previous week, and currently, production is in a loss. In November, the scheduled production of battery cells is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease from the previous month. In October, component production was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease from the previous month; in November, the expected component production is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory of components decreased by 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory decreased by 5.70%. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of polysilicon N-type material in the industry is 37,990 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,010 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 31, the price of N-type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -4160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Position**: The net position of the main contract is long, with an increase in long positions [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon contracts decreased, with the 01 contract of East China non-oxygenated 553 silicon at 9100 yuan/ton, a 0.60% decrease from the previous day [14]. - The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.24%, and major port inventory increased by 0.81% [14]. - The weekly production of sample enterprises was 48,725 tons, a 2.36% decrease from the previous week [14]. Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon contracts increased, with the 01 contract at 56,410 yuan/ton, a 2.66% increase from the previous day [16]. - The weekly production of silicon wafers was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week; the weekly inventory of silicon wafers was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease from the previous week [16]. - The monthly production of photovoltaic battery cells was 59.27GW, a 2.79% decrease from the previous month; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery cell external sales factories was 6.02GW, a 15.21% decrease from the previous week [16]. - The monthly production of components was 48.1GW, a 3.61% decrease from the previous month; the domestic monthly inventory of components decreased by 51.73%, and the European monthly inventory decreased by 5.70% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. - The overall cost of PVC is weakening, with the cost of calcium carbide method weakening and that of ethylene method strengthening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4673 - 4729 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 329,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 147,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the number of planned overhauls is expected to decrease next week, with a small increase in production scheduling [7]. - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Different downstream sectors have different operating rate changes, and the current demand may remain sluggish [7]. - **Cost side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2313.25 yuan/ton, with the profit decreasing by 2.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - **Basis**: On October 31, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4680 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 21 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [9]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 337,968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 252,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. Ethylene factory inventory was 85,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.77%. Social inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%. It is neutral [9]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [9]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [9]. - **Expectation**: The cost of the calcium carbide method is weakening, and that of the ethylene method is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. The supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4673 - 4729 [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including price changes of different contracts, inventory changes, downstream operating rates, profit and cost data of different production methods, and other information [15][16]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - It shows the basis trend, futures price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium carbide method - related aspects**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [27][30][32]. - **PVC supply trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, production, and overhaul volume of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method [40][42]. - **Demand trend**: It includes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of different PVC products, as well as real - estate and infrastructure - related data [44][46][49]. - **Inventory**: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts and factory inventories of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56][57]. - **Ethylene method**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price differences [58][59]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It shows the monthly data of PVC export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import from September 2024 to October 2025 [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, with the predicted production in the next month rising by 3.01% to 89,890 tons and the import volume increasing by 12.26% to 22,000 tons. The demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF remains unchanged daily, lower than the historical average. The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 79,800 - 81,760 [9]. - The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate for external use has a daily increase of 0.21%, resulting in a loss of -1,205 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged, with a loss of -8,291 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - The overall situation shows a mismatch between production capacity, leading to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,080 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 89,890 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.01%. The import volume in September was 19,597 tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 22,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.26% [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,979 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.61%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,890 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.60%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF remains unchanged, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate for external use has a daily increase of 0.21%, and the cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged [9][11]. - Price: The price of lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate between 79,800 - 81,760 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Fundamental: Neutral. The cost of external spodumene concentrate has a daily increase of 0.21%, resulting in a loss of -1,205 yuan/ton. The cost of external lithium mica remains unchanged, with a loss of -8,291 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [11]. - Basis: On October 31, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -230 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Neutral [11]. - Inventory: The total inventory is 127,358 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.30%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters is 32,051 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.83%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 53,288 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.59%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories are 42,020 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%, lower than the historical average. Neutral [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20. Bullish [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position decreases. Bearish [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3060. The short - term US soybean market is supported by China's soybean purchases but restricted by uncertain purchase volume and good harvest weather. The domestic soybean meal is also affected by these factors and the demand off - season, thus maintaining an oscillating pattern [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The short - term US soybean market is influenced by China's purchases and weather. The domestic soybean market is supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports but restricted by high import volume and domestic production increase expectations [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China will decline in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills will also decrease from a high level. Affected by normal harvest weather and the preliminary trade agreement, soybean meal will return to an oscillating pattern [13]. - The reduction of domestic pig - breeding profits leads to low expectations of pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing price expectations. The soybean meal market is affected by both US soybean trends and the demand off - season [13]. - The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory remains at a relatively high level. With the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and the Sino - US trade agreement, the soybean meal market will maintain an oscillating pattern, waiting for clear US soybean production and further trade negotiation results [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [14]. - **Negative Factors**: High total arrival of imported soybeans in November in China, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - **Positive Factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and rising domestic soybean demand expectations support prices [15]. - **Negative Factors**: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing price expectations [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From October 23 to October 31, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2991 to 3048, with daily trading volumes between 5.35 and 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2470 and 2530, and the daily trading volume was mostly 0 [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 23 to October 31, the futures prices of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal showed certain fluctuations, while the spot prices of soybean No.1 remained stable at 4100, and the spot price of soybean meal rose from 2910 to 2970 [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From October 22 to October 31, the warehouse receipts of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, and soybean meal changed. For example, the soybean No.1 warehouse receipts increased from 7090 to 7238 [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: From 2015 to 2024, the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets showed changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuating [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: In 2023/24, the planting and harvest progress of Argentine soybeans, in 2024, the planting, growth, and harvest progress of US soybeans, in 2024/25, the planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, in 2025, the harvest progress of US soybeans, and in 2025/26, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans are all presented [33][34][38][40][41]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: From March to September 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports showed changes in US soybean planting area, yield, output, and ending inventory, as well as Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [43]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - **View**: The short - term US soybean market is influenced by China's purchases and weather, and the domestic soybean meal market is affected by US soybean trends, demand off - season, and inventory. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3060 [9]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy content provided. Soybeans - **View**: The short - term US soybean market is affected by China's purchases and weather. The domestic soybean market is supported by cost - performance advantages but restricted by import volume and production increase expectations. It is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160 [11]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy content provided.