Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coking coal, the supply has not been significantly alleviated due to the slower - than - expected resumption of coal mines and some local mines still being shut down. The downstream demand is good, the market trading atmosphere is active, and the online auction results of coal mines are good, supporting the coal price to remain stable and slightly strong. However, some coke enterprises have limited production due to poor profitability, and the purchase of raw coal is relatively cautious. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [3]. - For coke, coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, and the inventory is at a low level. Affected by the rising price of raw coal, the loss of coke enterprises has increased, resulting in insufficient willingness to start production. The supply of coke continues to be tight. With strong cost support, it is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Supply is tight, demand is good, and the market trading atmosphere is active, supporting the coal price; bullish [3]. - Basis: The spot price is 1420, and the basis is 135.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons from last week; bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [4]. - Main position: The main net position of coking coal is long, with more long positions decreasing and short positions increasing; bullish [4]. - Expectation: Some coke enterprises have limited production, but the demand for replenishing raw coal inventory still exists. Considering the poor profit, the purchase of raw materials is cautious. It is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke enterprises are shipping smoothly, inventory is low, and the loss has increased due to the rising price of raw coal, resulting in insufficient willingness to start production. The supply is tight; bullish [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 1710, and the basis is - 61.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures; bearish [7]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [8]. - Main position: The main net position of coke has changed from short to long; bullish [8]. - Expectation: Some coke enterprises have increased production restrictions due to losses, while some steel mills are actively purchasing coke. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and it is expected that the price will remain stable in the short term [7]. Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and difficult supply increase [6]. - Bearish factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [10]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [10]. Prices - On November 3 (17:30), the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at different ports are provided, with some prices rising [11]. - On November 3 (17:30), the price indices of port metallurgical coke at different ports and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising [12]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [20]. Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory - Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [24]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [29]. Other Indicators - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年11月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年8月，全 球锌板产量为115.07万吨，消费量为117.17万吨，供应短缺2.1万吨。2025 年1-8月，全球锌板产量为908.85万吨，消费量为936.98万吨，供应短缺 28.13万吨。2025年8月，全球锌矿产量为106.96万吨。2025年1-8月，全球 锌矿产量为844.57万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22400，基差-165；偏空。 3、库存：11月3日LME锌库存较上日减少1475吨至35300吨，11月3日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少125吨至67649吨；偏空。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-11-04投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8220，基差110，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8400附近区间震荡 每日观点 棕榈油 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent trend of foreign sugar is weak, while the domestic Zhengzhou sugar trend is relatively strong, and the near - month contracts are stronger than the far - month contracts. In the long - term, the divergence between domestic and foreign trends of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract 01 is unsustainable. There is increasing pressure above 5500, and the probability of short - sellers re - entering the market increases [6][9] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors include the increase in global sugar production, the expected surplus in the new year, the foreign sugar price falling below 15 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window leading to increased import impact [7] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's central - southern region produced 36.016 million tons of sugar in the current sugar - making season as of the first half of October, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277,000 tons in the 2025/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons in the 2025/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China produced 11.1621 million tons of sugar in the 2024/25 season, sold 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5740, and the basis for the 01 contract is 241, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO expects a supply deficit of 20,000 tons (basically balanced); StoneX expects a surplus of 277,000 tons; Czarnikow expects a surplus of 620,000 tons (another mention is 750,000 tons); Datagro expects a surplus of 153,000 tons; Covrig Analytics expects a surplus of 420,000 tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a surplus of 40,000 tons; Green Pool expects a surplus of 115,000 tons [36] - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production is 1.12 million tons, imports are 500,000 tons, consumption is 1.59 million tons, and the balance change is 12,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [38] - **Import Cost**: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [44] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the spot market negotiation atmosphere is relatively dull, mainly with traders' negotiations and few actions from polyester factories. The spot basis fluctuates within a range, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate following the cost side, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center is expected to weaken in the near term. This week, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and the import supply is abundant this month. The long - term supply surplus expectation persists, putting pressure on the market sentiment. Attention should be paid to cost and device changes [7]. - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - side. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the rebound of the disk, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis loosened. Trades were mainly between traders, with individual polyester factories making inquiries. There were transactions at different basis levels for different delivery times. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 73. The inventory of PTA factories decreased by 0.04 days to 4.03 days, and the 20 - day moving average is upward with the closing price above it. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. In the short term, prices are expected to follow the cost side to fluctuate [5][6]. - **MEG**: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market negotiation was average. The morning session saw a weak and volatile disk, and the spot was traded at a premium of 74 - 78 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Around noon, the disk dropped rapidly, and the spot was traded at a low of below 4040 yuan/ton. The afternoon market was mainly in a low - level adjustment. The external market price of ethylene glycol also weakened. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.7 tons to 49.8 tons, and the 20 - day moving average is downward with the closing price below it. The main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. This week, the arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and the import supply this month is abundant. The long - term supply surplus expectation persists [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - No relevant content provided 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, including changes in production capacity, load, and supply - demand gap in different months [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the data of ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, total demand, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, including changes in production capacity, load, and supply - demand difference in different months [12]. 3.5. Price - There are multiple price - related charts, including bottle - chip spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, and inventory analysis of related products from 2020 - 2025 [14][28][31][35][38][40] - **Bottle - Chip**: It includes the spot price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, and inventory of PET bottle - chips [14][17][21][22] - **PTA**: It involves the basis, inter - month spread, and processing fee of PTA [28][24][60] - **MEG**: It includes the inter - month spread, basis, and profit of MEG [31][35][61] - **Polyester Products**: It shows the production profit of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY) [64][65][67] - **Upstream and Downstream of Polyester**: It presents the operating rates of the upstream (PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) of the polyester industry [51][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. The agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather conditions, while the industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1560 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is -63, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), also bearish. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, suggesting a bearish trend. The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is also bearish. Considering the weak industrial demand, the rebound in agricultural demand, the strong international urea price, and the significant domestic oversupply, the UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Likely to Rise**: The international price of urea is strong, and the agricultural demand is rebounding [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: The domestic market is oversupplied [6]. - **Main Logic**: The international price and the marginal change in domestic demand are the main factors influencing the market [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Price** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1560 (-20), the Shandong spot price is 1560 (-30), and the Henan spot price is 1560 (unchanged). The FOB China price is 2686 [5][7]. | | **Futures Price** | The price of the UR01 contract is 1623 (-2), the UR05 contract is 1709 (+6), and the UR09 contract is 1742 (+6). The UR2601 contract basis is -63, with a premium/discount ratio of -4.0% [5][7]. | Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), including 1.554 million tons in factory inventory and 110,000 tons in port inventory [5][7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a sluggish real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a discount to futures, which is bearish [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum has decreased by 4,594 tons to 113,574 tons compared to last week, being neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is upward - sloping, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - The main positions are net long and the long positions are increasing, also bullish [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a mixed situation, with aluminum prices expected to be strong [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of aluminum is a combination of multiple factors. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, the price trend on the disk is bullish, and the main positions are bullish. The long - term outlook is bullish with short - term mixed factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; geopolitical issues between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; potential interest rate cuts [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai's spot price was 70,770 with a decrease of 375; Nanchu's was 70,690 with a decrease of 450; and the Yangtze River's was 70,870 with a decrease of 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 699 to 70,798 tons; LME inventory decreased by 425 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory (weekly) increased by 29,728 tons to 136,300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 to 2023, the aluminum market in China generally had a supply - demand deficit, except in 2020 when there was a small surplus of 1.3 million tons. In 2024, it is expected to have a surplus of 15 million tons [23].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The bond market is experiencing narrow - range fluctuations, with long - term bonds performing slightly better. After a wave of recovery in bond market sentiment following major events such as the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, the market may enter a stalemate phase in the short term as the news becomes stable [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Fundamentals**: The bond market shows narrow - range fluctuations, with most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures declining. The 30 - year main contract drops 0.11%. The inter - bank market has a loose capital supply, and the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions slightly decreases and stabilizes around 1.31%. Most Vanke bonds fall, with "22 Vanke 04" and "21 Vanke 06" dropping over 2% [2]. - **Funding**: On November 3, the central bank conducts 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 337.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds is 259 billion yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The main basis of TS is - 0.0397, TF is - 0.0523, and T is - 0.0002, indicating that the spot bonds are at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The main basis of TL is 0.2246, indicating that the spot bonds are at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The balances of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which is neutral [3]. - **Market Trend**: The main contracts of TS, TF, and T are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Positions**: The main contract of TS has a net long position with an increase in long positions. The main contract of TF also has a net long position with an increase in long positions. The main contract of T has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [4]. - **Expectations**: The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for 8 consecutive months. The October PMI data is below expectations and still below the boom - bust line. In September, the CPI increased 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase in core CPI has expanded for 5 consecutive months. The new social financing in September is slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate has expanded. The LPR remains unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October FOMC meeting [4]. 3.2 Quotes of Main Contracts | Futures Contract | Current Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Daily Change in Open Interest | CTD Bond | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T2512.CFE | 108.680 | 0.01% | 65,902 | 243,868 | 1,313 | 250018.IB | | TF2512.CFE | 106.050 | - 0.01% | 52,682 | 151,286 | 1,862 | 250003.IB | | TS2512.CFE | 102.516 | - 0.03% | 24,640 | 71,166 | - 1,209 | 250012.IB | | TL2512.CFE | 116.51 | - 0.11% | 98,827 | 137,774 | - 4,976 | 210005.IB | [7] 3.3 Spot Bond Analysis The report presents the DR interest rate, the maturity yield of inter - bank treasury bonds, and the term spread of treasury bonds, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [8][11][12] 3.4 Basis Analysis The report shows the basis trend charts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [14][19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 8950 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 9100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.68%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4]. - For polysilicon, the 01 contract also showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 52510 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 56410 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7.43%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will continue to decrease, overall demand will show a continuous decline, cost support will remain stable, and the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99%. The sample enterprise output was 48,725 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.36%. The expected monthly operating rate is 69.23%, an increase of 7.29 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 87,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.44%, and demand remained weak. In terms of polysilicon, the inventory was 261,000 tons, at the same level as the historical average. In terms of organic silicon, the inventory was 56,300 tons, lower than the historical average, and the production was in a loss state. In terms of aluminum alloy, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 73,500 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18%. The weekly sample enterprise inventory was 168,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.24%. The weekly major port inventory was 124,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.81% [10]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.40%. The forecasted production schedule for November is 120,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.37% from the previous month [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%. The battery cell output decreased month-on-month, and the component production was profitable but also showed a downward trend [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry was 37,990 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 14,260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the SI main contract basis, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc., reflecting the price relationship between the spot and futures markets and different grades of silicon [15]. - **Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouse and port inventory, SMM sample enterprise inventory, and registered warrant volume, which helps to understand the supply and demand situation in the market [17]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and capacity utilization rate, as well as the operating rate trends of sample enterprises in different regions, reflecting the production status of the industry [20]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It shows the historical trends of cost and profit for 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang, reflecting the cost - profit situation of different regions and specifications [27]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon, showing the supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [29][32]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc., reflecting the operating conditions of the organic silicon industry [35][37]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy, reflecting the operating conditions of the aluminum alloy industry [44][48]. - **Polysilicon**: It includes the price, production, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and related accessories, reflecting the operating conditions of the polysilicon industry and its downstream industries [52][55]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [74][75]. - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [76][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend. It is expected that next week, the supply side's production scheduling will decrease, the demand side will continue to increase, and costs will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7][75]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract opened at 80,000 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 80,780 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.97% [4]. - **Supply Side**: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 12,904 tons, a 2.04% decrease from the previous period; lithium mica production was 2,881 tons, a 0.34% decrease; salt lake production was 3,247 tons, a 0.62% increase; and recycling production was 2,048 tons, a 1.59% increase [4]. - **Demand Side**: In September 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 116,801 physical tons, a 12.28% increase from the previous month. The predicted demand for next month is 123,198 physical tons, a 5.48% increase. The export volume in September was 151 tons, a 59.07% decrease, and the predicted export volume for next month is 324 tons, a 14.57% increase [5]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 80,623 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.21%, resulting in a loss of 1,205 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 85,678 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a loss of 8,291 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost was close to the ore - end cost, with average production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The smelter inventory was 32,051 tons, a 4.83% decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 53,288 tons, a 3.59% decrease, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 42,020 tons, a 1.47% increase, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% decrease, higher than the historical average [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The report presents long - term trends of lithium ore prices, production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China, and monthly imports of lithium concentrate from 2019 - 2025 [15]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from September 2024 to September 2025, with fluctuations in the balance [18]. 3.2.2 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: It shows the weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) from 2018 - 2025 [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from September 2024 to September 2025 shows that the demand, export, import, production, and balance vary monthly [25]. 3.2.3 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It presents the weekly capacity utilization, monthly production, and capacity of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) from 2018 - 2025 [28]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from September 2024 to September 2025 shows changes in demand, export, import, production, and balance [31]. 3.2.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit Analysis**: It analyzes the cost - profit of various lithium compounds, including purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide processing [34][36][39]. 3.2.5 Inventory - **Inventory Trends**: It shows the trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide inventories, including warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories from different sources from 2021 - 2025 [41]. 3.2.6 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Cost**: It presents the price trends, monthly production, and cost of lithium batteries from 2021 - 2025 [45]. 3.2.7 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Production, and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows the price, cost, processing fee, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from 2018 - 2025 [50][53]. 3.2.8 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Production, and Inventory**: It presents the price, cost - profit, production, processing fee, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials from 2020 - 2025 [56][58]. 3.2.9 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Production, and Cost - Profit**: It shows the price, cost, profit, production, capacity, and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium from 2019 - 2025 [60][63]. 3.2.10 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Inventory**: It presents the production, sales, export, sales penetration, zero - batch ratio, and inventory warning index of new energy vehicles from 2019 - 2025 [68][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis This week, the main 01 contract showed an upward trend. Based on the chart of the LC main contract, it is expected that next week, the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [75].