1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state where supply exceeds demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - led. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be depleted, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 87,340 - 91,140 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.16%. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.51%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45%. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,343 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.99%, with a profit of 1,069 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.33%, with a loss of 4,968 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end [8]. - **Basis**: On August 18, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 142,256 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.56%, and the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26% [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted that the production next month will be 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume next month will be 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted. The price of 6% concentrate CIF increased daily, lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 87,340 - 91,140 yuan/ton [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products showed varying degrees of increase, while the basis of most products showed a negative value and a certain degree of decline [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of spodumene, lepidolite concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of anhydrous iron phosphate decreased slightly [13]. - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of most positive electrode materials and lithium batteries increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore increased, and the production and import volume of lithium ore showed different trends. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore and the inventory of lithium ore in ports also changed [21]. - **Lithium Ore Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The demand, production, import, and export of lithium ore in different months from 2024 to 2025 are shown, and the supply - demand balance is calculated [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling) are presented, and the supply - demand balance is calculated [26][31]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide are shown [34][37]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - Out - sourced spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have different cost - profit situations. The processing cost components of lepidolite and spodumene, as well as the import profit of lithium carbonate, are also presented [40][43][46]. - The cost - profit situations of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and different production methods of lithium hydroxide are shown [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in different periods and from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) is presented [48]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries are shown [52][54]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are presented [57][60]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, production, export volume, import volume, and inventory of ternary materials are shown [63][65]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, capacity, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [67][70]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and inventory warning index of new energy vehicles are shown [75][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure is high as refineries have increased production recently, but it may decrease next week. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, with the recovery being weak. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price of asphalt 2510 will fluctuate within the range of 3450 - 3496 [8][10][15] - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with a strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production in China is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week is 35.2349%, a month - on - month increase of 1.797 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 583,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.35%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure [8] - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 32.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of modified asphalt is 17.1004%, a month - on - month increase of 1.23 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of road - modified asphalt is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.50 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of waterproofing membranes is 29.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8] - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.90%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9] - **Other Aspects**: On August 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3580 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 107 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. Social inventory is 1,343,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.75%; factory inventory is 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.71%; port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has decreased [11] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including the current and previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as futures contracts, weekly inventory, weekly operating rate, weekly output and loss, asphalt coking profit, and downstream demand operating rate [17][18] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - It shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [20][21] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [24][25] - **Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27][28] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It displays the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][31][32] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [34][35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - It shows the historical trend of the price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [37][38] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 and the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [39][40][43] - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of weekly shipments, domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, weekly and monthly output, the price of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly output of Venezuelan crude oil, local refinery asphalt output, weekly operating rate, and estimated maintenance loss from 2018 - 2025 [45][47][50] - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory), social inventory (70 samples), factory inventory (54 samples), and factory inventory inventory ratio from 2019 - 2025 [65][69][73] - **Import and Export Situation**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [76][77][80] - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes the historical trends of petroleum coke output, apparent consumption, downstream demand (high - way construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year), downstream mechanical demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, road roller sales), heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate, operating rates by use (modified asphalt, building asphalt), downstream operating conditions (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt), and the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2019 - 2025 [82][85][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative candlestick, an increase in trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with a greater increase in short positions. Overall, it was a volume - driven decline. The price decline led to active entry by long - position holders, while short - position holders exerted stronger pressure. In the short term, the market may oscillate weakly. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, which provides strong support. Short - term indicators such as KDJ are declining and operating in the weak zone. The trend indicator is also declining, with the strength of long - position holders decreasing and that of short - position holders increasing, indicating that short - position holders have the upper hand. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 will oscillate weakly [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, leading to a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, global zinc plate production was 1.0722 million tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 22,340, and the basis is - 20, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 18, LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons from the previous day to 75,850 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 12,518 tons from the previous day to 32,538 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on August 18 - It provides detailed information on zinc futures of different delivery months, including previous settlement price, opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading value, and open interest and its changes [3]. 3.5 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on August 18 - It shows the prices and price changes of zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingot, galvanized sheet, galvanized pipe, zinc alloy, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide in different regions [4]. 3.6 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 7 - August 18, 2025) - It presents the zinc ingot inventory in major markets such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu on different dates, as well as the inventory changes compared with August 11 and August 14 [5]. 3.7 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on August 18 - It details the zinc warrants in different regions and warehouses, including the quantity and changes [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 18 - It shows the inventory, changes, registered warrants, cancelled warrants, and the proportion of cancelled warrants [7]. 3.9 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 18 - It provides the prices, price changes, and other information of zinc concentrates in different regions with a 50% grade [9]. 3.10 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 18 - It shows the prices, price changes, and other information of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters [13]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned refined zinc production was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and an increase of 2.63% compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470,300 tons [15]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 18 - It presents the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions for different grades, including the lowest price, highest price, purchase price, and price changes [17]. 3.13 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on August 18 - It shows the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of different futures companies for the zinc contract zn2510, as well as their changes compared with the previous trading day [18].

Report Summary Core View - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors. The fundamentals show mixed signals, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises' production cuts and loosened scrap copper policy, July PMI at 49.3% (down 0.4 ppts from last month), neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 79280, basis is 330, at a premium to futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 18, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 155600 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared with last week, neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: Closing price below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward, bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: Main net long position with an increase in long positions, bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Slowdown of Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, weak consumption in the off - season, leading to a fluctuating adjustment of copper prices [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Domestic policy easing and potential trade - war escalation, but no clear indication of bullish or bearish impact is detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance figures from 2018 - 2024 [20][22]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared with last week, and on August 18, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 155600 tons [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines are adjusting work plans and organizing production according to 276 working days, leading to a slight decline in domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, with some high - priced resources having weak transactions and coal prices starting to回调. However, coal mine inventories are low, and there is a strong willingness to hold prices. Although downstream enterprises are still reluctant to accept high - priced coal, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the sixth round of coke price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. But the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down. Although the arrival of coke at steel mills has improved and inventory has increased, the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines adjust work plans, reducing domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, and high - priced resources have weak transactions. Coal mine inventories are low, with strong price - holding intentions [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1190, and the basis is 2.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - **Expectation**: Downstream enterprises are reluctant to accept high - priced coal, but after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the sixth round of price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. The procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the inventory of coking enterprises is still at a low level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 82, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: The arrival of coke at steel mills has improved, and inventory has increased. But the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of restocking demand [8]. Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [29]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market rebounded after a decline, with significant pressure from the upper moving - average lines. The tight supply of imported goods has been somewhat alleviated. The cost line has risen slightly, and stainless - steel inventory continues to decline. The new - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year. The medium - and long - term overcapacity pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The short - term nickel - ore price is stable, freight rates are firm, and the nickel - iron price has increased steadily. The cost line has risen slightly, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The contract 不锈钢2510 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Overview - **镍**: On August 18, the price of 沪镍主力 was 120,340 yuan, down 260 yuan from August 15; the price of 伦镍电 was 15,170 yuan, down 25 yuan. The prices of various types of spot nickel all increased slightly [12]. - **不锈钢**: On August 18, the price of 不锈钢主力 remained unchanged at 13,010 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions remained flat [12]. 3.2 Inventory - **镍**: As of August 18, LME nickel inventory was 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons from August 15; 沪镍 (warehouse receipts) was 23,051 tons, an increase of 910 tons. The total inventory was 233,465 tons, a decrease of 338 tons [15]. - **不锈钢**: As of August 15, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons compared to the previous period. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 103,093 tons, a decrease of 184 tons from August 15 [19][20]. 3.3 Cost - **镍 - ore and nickel - iron**: The prices of red - clay nickel ore and nickel - iron remained stable on August 18 compared to August 15, with only a slight increase in the price of high - nickel wet tons [23]. - **Stainless - steel production**: The traditional cost was 12,901 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,586 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 16,519 yuan [25]. - **Nickel import**: The imported price was converted to 122,349 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, firm nickel - ore prices, and a slight upward trend in the cost line [7]. - **Negative factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term overcapacity pattern, and a year - on - year decrease in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to the lowest level in the same period in history. Deep - processing orders are lower than the same period in previous years, and terminal demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the weak fundamentals and the fading of macro - positive factors [2]. - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry, but the real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the follow - up sustainability of inventory reduction is questionable. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a wide - range fluctuation [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1212 yuan/ton, with a 0.08% increase; the spot price of Shahe safety large - plate glass is 1084 yuan/ton, with a 0.37% decrease; the main basis is - 128 yuan/ton, with a 4.07% increase [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Cost - side Fundamentals - No detailed cost - side data is provided, only the topic of glass production profit is mentioned. Supply - side Fundamentals - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 223, with a start - up rate of 75.34%, and the start - up number of production lines is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and rebounded [21][23]. Demand - side Fundamentals - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original - sheet inventory [27][4]. Inventory Fundamentals - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.426 million weight boxes, a 2.55% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [41]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [42]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, the capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has faded [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream periodic replenishment has led to the reduction of glass factory inventory, but the sustainability of subsequent reduction is questionable. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a wide - range fluctuation [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral situation with a spot price of 20550 and a basis of - 45, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons, also neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward, suggesting a bearish trend. The main position is net long and the long position is increasing, showing a bullish sign. In the long - term, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, leading to an oscillating aluminum price [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral, with carbon neutrality curbing capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market and volatile macro sentiment. The basis is neutral with a spot price of 20550 and a basis of - 45. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward. The main position is net long and the long position is increasing. In the long - term, carbon neutrality is positive for aluminum prices, but the US tariff expansion creates a mixed situation and the aluminum price will oscillate [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The global economy is not optimistic and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - **Logic**: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot Price**: Yesterday's Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu's price was 70690, down 450; today's Yangtze River price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74750 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 29728 tons to 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows different situations. In 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2019, it was - 68.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2021, it was - 14.2 million tons; in 2022, it was - 29.98 million tons; in 2023, it was - 4.31 million tons; and in 2024, it is expected to be 15 million tons [20][22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年8月19日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：巴西中南部：本榨季截至7月底累计产糖1927万吨，同比减少7.8%。2025年7月底， 24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。2025年 7月中国进口食糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；6月进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.57万吨，同比减 少10.32万吨。中性。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货6040，基差368（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至7月底24/25榨季工业库存161万吨；偏多。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - After the "Tez Meeting", Trump called Putin, indicating the start of arrangements for a tri - party meeting. There are still optimistic expectations for Russia - Ukraine peace talks, causing gold and silver prices to decline slightly. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate while waiting for the central bank's annual meeting [4][5]. - With Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are hard to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Gold and silver prices are still likely to rise rather than fall [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce. The basis was - 3.28, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 300 kg to 36345 kg. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce. The basis was - 31, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3129 kg to 1138426 kg. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above it. The main net long position decreased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that with Trump's inauguration, the world is in turmoil, and the shift from inflation to recession expectations makes it difficult for gold prices to fall. The gap between the new US government's policy expectations and reality continues to be verified, keeping gold prices high and likely to rise [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [12]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 10:00: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the achievements of building a sports - strong country during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. - 12:50: Ellis Connolly, the head of payment policy at the Reserve Bank of Australia, will participate in a fireside chat. - 20:30: The US will release data on new housing starts and building permits for July, and Canada will release its July CPI. - 22:00: Federal Reserve Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will participate in an interview on a Bloomberg TV program. - The next day at 02:10: Federal Reserve Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will discuss promoting new technologies in the banking system at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Prices**: Various gold and silver futures and spot prices showed different trends, such as the increase in Shanghai gold 2510 by 0.32% and the increase in Shanghai silver 2510 by 0.54% [15]. - **US Treasury Yields**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.37 basis points to 4.332% [4][5]. - **Dollar Index**: The dollar index rose 0.31% to 98.16 [4][5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: On August 18, 2025, the long position decreased by 1.67% to 622,420, the short position decreased by 3.02% to 467,366, and the net position increased by 2.66% to 155,054 [29]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: On August 18, 2025, the long position increased by 0.58% to 1,095,982, the short position increased by 0.64% to 1,004,870, and the net position increased by 0.01% to 91,112 [32]. - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions increased slightly, and silver ETF positions increased significantly and were higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts fluctuated and were higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [38][39][41].