1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative candlestick, an increase in trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with a greater increase in short positions. Overall, it was a volume - driven decline. The price decline led to active entry by long - position holders, while short - position holders exerted stronger pressure. In the short term, the market may oscillate weakly. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, which provides strong support. Short - term indicators such as KDJ are declining and operating in the weak zone. The trend indicator is also declining, with the strength of long - position holders decreasing and that of short - position holders increasing, indicating that short - position holders have the upper hand. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2510 will oscillate weakly [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, resulting in a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, leading to a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, global zinc plate production was 1.0722 million tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 22,340, and the basis is - 20, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On August 18, LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons from the previous day to 75,850 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 12,518 tons from the previous day to 32,538 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on August 18 - It provides detailed information on zinc futures of different delivery months, including previous settlement price, opening price, high price, low price, closing price, settlement reference price, price changes, trading volume, trading value, and open interest and its changes [3]. 3.5 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on August 18 - It shows the prices and price changes of zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingot, galvanized sheet, galvanized pipe, zinc alloy, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide in different regions [4]. 3.6 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (August 7 - August 18, 2025) - It presents the zinc ingot inventory in major markets such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu on different dates, as well as the inventory changes compared with August 11 and August 14 [5]. 3.7 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on August 18 - It details the zinc warrants in different regions and warehouses, including the quantity and changes [6]. 3.8 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 18 - It shows the inventory, changes, registered warrants, cancelled warrants, and the proportion of cancelled warrants [7]. 3.9 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 18 - It provides the prices, price changes, and other information of zinc concentrates in different regions with a 50% grade [9]. 3.10 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 18 - It shows the prices, price changes, and other information of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters [13]. 3.11 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned refined zinc production was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and an increase of 2.63% compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470,300 tons [15]. 3.12 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 18 - It presents the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions for different grades, including the lowest price, highest price, purchase price, and price changes [17]. 3.13 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on August 18 - It shows the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of different futures companies for the zinc contract zn2510, as well as their changes compared with the previous trading day [18].

Report Summary Core View - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors. The fundamentals show mixed signals, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises' production cuts and loosened scrap copper policy, July PMI at 49.3% (down 0.4 ppts from last month), neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 79280, basis is 330, at a premium to futures, neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 18, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 155600 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared with last week, neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: Closing price below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward, bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: Main net long position with an increase in long positions, bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Slowdown of Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, weak consumption in the off - season, leading to a fluctuating adjustment of copper prices [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Domestic policy easing and potential trade - war escalation, but no clear indication of bullish or bearish impact is detailed [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance figures from 2018 - 2024 [20][22]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory increased by 4428 tons to 86361 tons compared with last week, and on August 18, copper inventory decreased by 200 to 155600 tons [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines are adjusting work plans and organizing production according to 276 working days, leading to a slight decline in domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, with some high - priced resources having weak transactions and coal prices starting to回调. However, coal mine inventories are low, and there is a strong willingness to hold prices. Although downstream enterprises are still reluctant to accept high - priced coal, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the sixth round of coke price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. But the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down. Although the arrival of coke at steel mills has improved and inventory has increased, the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines adjust work plans, reducing domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, and high - priced resources have weak transactions. Coal mine inventories are low, with strong price - holding intentions [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1190, and the basis is 2.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - **Expectation**: Downstream enterprises are reluctant to accept high - priced coal, but after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the sixth round of price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. The procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the inventory of coking enterprises is still at a low level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 82, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: The arrival of coke at steel mills has improved, and inventory has increased. But the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of restocking demand [8]. Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [29]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market rebounded after a decline, with significant pressure from the upper moving - average lines. The tight supply of imported goods has been somewhat alleviated. The cost line has risen slightly, and stainless - steel inventory continues to decline. The new - energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased year - on - year. The medium - and long - term overcapacity pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price remains flat. The short - term nickel - ore price is stable, freight rates are firm, and the nickel - iron price has increased steadily. The cost line has risen slightly, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The contract 不锈钢2510 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Overview - **镍**: On August 18, the price of 沪镍主力 was 120,340 yuan, down 260 yuan from August 15; the price of 伦镍电 was 15,170 yuan, down 25 yuan. The prices of various types of spot nickel all increased slightly [12]. - **不锈钢**: On August 18, the price of 不锈钢主力 remained unchanged at 13,010 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions remained flat [12]. 3.2 Inventory - **镍**: As of August 18, LME nickel inventory was 210,414 tons, a decrease of 1,248 tons from August 15; 沪镍 (warehouse receipts) was 23,051 tons, an increase of 910 tons. The total inventory was 233,465 tons, a decrease of 338 tons [15]. - **不锈钢**: As of August 15, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0789 million tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons compared to the previous period. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 103,093 tons, a decrease of 184 tons from August 15 [19][20]. 3.3 Cost - **镍 - ore and nickel - iron**: The prices of red - clay nickel ore and nickel - iron remained stable on August 18 compared to August 15, with only a slight increase in the price of high - nickel wet tons [23]. - **Stainless - steel production**: The traditional cost was 12,901 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,586 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 16,519 yuan [25]. - **Nickel import**: The imported price was converted to 122,349 yuan/ton [29]. 3.4 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October", anti - involution policies, firm nickel - ore prices, and a slight upward trend in the cost line [7]. - **Negative factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term overcapacity pattern, and a year - on - year decrease in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to the lowest level in the same period in history. Deep - processing orders are lower than the same period in previous years, and terminal demand is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the weak fundamentals and the fading of macro - positive factors [2]. - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry, but the real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the follow - up sustainability of inventory reduction is questionable. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a wide - range fluctuation [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1212 yuan/ton, with a 0.08% increase; the spot price of Shahe safety large - plate glass is 1084 yuan/ton, with a 0.37% decrease; the main basis is - 128 yuan/ton, with a 4.07% increase [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Cost - side Fundamentals - No detailed cost - side data is provided, only the topic of glass production profit is mentioned. Supply - side Fundamentals - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 223, with a start - up rate of 75.34%, and the start - up number of production lines is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and rebounded [21][23]. Demand - side Fundamentals - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original - sheet inventory [27][4]. Inventory Fundamentals - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.426 million weight boxes, a 2.55% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [41]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [42]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, the capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has faded [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream periodic replenishment has led to the reduction of glass factory inventory, but the sustainability of subsequent reduction is questionable. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a wide - range fluctuation [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market with volatile short - term macro sentiment. The basis shows a neutral situation with a spot price of 20550 and a basis of - 45, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons, also neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward, suggesting a bearish trend. The main position is net long and the long position is increasing, showing a bullish sign. In the long - term, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and benefit aluminum prices, but the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs creates a situation where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined, leading to an oscillating aluminum price [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral, with carbon neutrality curbing capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market and volatile macro sentiment. The basis is neutral with a spot price of 20550 and a basis of - 45. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 7093 tons to 120653 tons. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is downward. The main position is net long and the long position is increasing. In the long - term, carbon neutrality is positive for aluminum prices, but the US tariff expansion creates a mixed situation and the aluminum price will oscillate [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The global economy is not optimistic and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. - **Logic**: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot Price**: Yesterday's Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; Nanchu's price was 70690, down 450; today's Yangtze River price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory decreased by 425 tons to 74750 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 29728 tons to 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of aluminum in China from 2018 - 2024 shows different situations. In 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2019, it was - 68.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2021, it was - 14.2 million tons; in 2022, it was - 29.98 million tons; in 2023, it was - 4.31 million tons; and in 2024, it is expected to be 15 million tons [20][22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年8月19日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：巴西中南部：本榨季截至7月底累计产糖1927万吨，同比减少7.8%。2025年7月底， 24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。2025年 7月中国进口食糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；6月进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.57万吨，同比减 少10.32万吨。中性。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货6040，基差368（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至7月底24/25榨季工业库存161万吨；偏多。 4、盘面：20日均线走平，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - After the "Tez Meeting", Trump called Putin, indicating the start of arrangements for a tri - party meeting. There are still optimistic expectations for Russia - Ukraine peace talks, causing gold and silver prices to decline slightly. Gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate while waiting for the central bank's annual meeting [4][5]. - With Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are hard to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Gold and silver prices are still likely to rise rather than fall [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce. The basis was - 3.28, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 300 kg to 36345 kg. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below it. The main net long position decreased [4]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce. The basis was - 31, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3129 kg to 1138426 kg. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above it. The main net long position decreased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that with Trump's inauguration, the world is in turmoil, and the shift from inflation to recession expectations makes it difficult for gold prices to fall. The gap between the new US government's policy expectations and reality continues to be verified, keeping gold prices high and likely to rise [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [12]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 10:00: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the achievements of building a sports - strong country during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. - 12:50: Ellis Connolly, the head of payment policy at the Reserve Bank of Australia, will participate in a fireside chat. - 20:30: The US will release data on new housing starts and building permits for July, and Canada will release its July CPI. - 22:00: Federal Reserve Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will participate in an interview on a Bloomberg TV program. - The next day at 02:10: Federal Reserve Governor and Vice - Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will discuss promoting new technologies in the banking system at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025 [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Prices**: Various gold and silver futures and spot prices showed different trends, such as the increase in Shanghai gold 2510 by 0.32% and the increase in Shanghai silver 2510 by 0.54% [15]. - **US Treasury Yields**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.37 basis points to 4.332% [4][5]. - **Dollar Index**: The dollar index rose 0.31% to 98.16 [4][5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: On August 18, 2025, the long position decreased by 1.67% to 622,420, the short position decreased by 3.02% to 467,366, and the net position increased by 2.66% to 155,054 [29]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: On August 18, 2025, the long position increased by 0.58% to 1,095,982, the short position increased by 0.64% to 1,004,870, and the net position increased by 0.01% to 91,112 [32]. - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions increased slightly, and silver ETF positions increased significantly and were higher than the same period in the past two years [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts fluctuated and were higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [38][39][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports an increase in biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,580, with a basis of 64, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,600, with a basis of 16, indicating a neutral situation [3] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,900, with a basis of 74, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production cut season [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Supply and Demand - Supply aspects include imported soybean inventory [6], soybean oil inventory [8], soybean meal inventory [10], oil mill soybean crushing [12], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [20], rapeseed inventory [22], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [24] - Demand aspect includes the apparent consumption of soybean oil [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate, and the spot basis will vary within a range. Although there is no inventory accumulation pressure in August due to some device overhauls and increased polyester load, the cost side lacks support as oil prices are under pressure [5]. - For MEG, the short - term price center is expected to adjust within a range. With the recovery of polyester load and active point - pricing by polyester factories, the port inventory increase space is limited in August - September [7]. - The industry has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include planned PTA device overhauls in August and the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. Negative factors are the continued pressure on profit margins in each link of the industrial chain and the cautious overall operation atmosphere [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 3.2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamentals: On the previous day, PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, the spot basis was stable, mainly traded among traders, and polyester factories replenished stocks. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. The August goods were negotiated and traded around 09 - 10~15, with some lower prices, and a small amount was negotiated around 01 - 56~58, with the price negotiation range around 4650 - 4690. The mainstream spot basis today is 09 - 12 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4665, the 01 contract basis is - 81, and the futures price is at a premium [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.7 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, and the short position is decreasing [5]. - Expectation: In the near term, the processing margin remains low, some PTA devices are under maintenance, and the polyester load is rising. There is no inventory accumulation pressure for PTA in August. However, oil prices are under pressure, and the cost side lacks support. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate in the short term, and the spot basis will vary within a range. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US - Russia talks on oil prices and the changes in upstream and downstream devices [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted, and the basis strengthened moderately. During the day, the ethylene glycol futures were adjusted at a low level, and the market negotiation was fair. Polyester factories were actively pricing at low levels. The mainstream negotiation price of spot goods was around 4434 - 4448 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol was running at a low level. The negotiation price of recent shipments was around 519 - 522 US dollars/ton. The market was mainly for inquiries from traders and some suppliers, and the daily transaction price was at the level of 520 - 522 US dollars/ton [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4439, the 09 contract basis is 93, and the futures price is at a discount [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 47.22 tons, an increase of 4.48 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main Position: The main net short position, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - Expectation: Last week, the polyester load recovered to around 89.4%, and the load of looms and texturing machines also increased. The demand support is gradually strengthening. During the recent price center adjustment of ethylene glycol, polyester factories actively participated in point - pricing. The port shipment will improve in the future, and the port inventory increase space is limited in August - September. It is expected that the short - term price center of ethylene glycol will be adjusted within a range. Attention should be paid to the recovery speed of polyester load and the commodity trend [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, inventory, etc. [10] - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including ethylene glycol total operating rate, production, new production capacity, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total demand, port inventory, etc. [11] - **Price Data**: It includes the prices and price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers on August 18 and August 15, 2025, as well as the basis, processing fees, and profits of related products [12].