1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 8950 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 9100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.68%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4]. - For polysilicon, the 01 contract also showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 52510 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 56410 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7.43%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will continue to decrease, overall demand will show a continuous decline, cost support will remain stable, and the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99%. The sample enterprise output was 48,725 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.36%. The expected monthly operating rate is 69.23%, an increase of 7.29 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 87,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.44%, and demand remained weak. In terms of polysilicon, the inventory was 261,000 tons, at the same level as the historical average. In terms of organic silicon, the inventory was 56,300 tons, lower than the historical average, and the production was in a loss state. In terms of aluminum alloy, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 73,500 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18%. The weekly sample enterprise inventory was 168,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.24%. The weekly major port inventory was 124,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.81% [10]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.40%. The forecasted production schedule for November is 120,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.37% from the previous month [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%. The battery cell output decreased month-on-month, and the component production was profitable but also showed a downward trend [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry was 37,990 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 14,260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the SI main contract basis, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc., reflecting the price relationship between the spot and futures markets and different grades of silicon [15]. - **Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouse and port inventory, SMM sample enterprise inventory, and registered warrant volume, which helps to understand the supply and demand situation in the market [17]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and capacity utilization rate, as well as the operating rate trends of sample enterprises in different regions, reflecting the production status of the industry [20]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It shows the historical trends of cost and profit for 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang, reflecting the cost - profit situation of different regions and specifications [27]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon, showing the supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [29][32]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc., reflecting the operating conditions of the organic silicon industry [35][37]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy, reflecting the operating conditions of the aluminum alloy industry [44][48]. - **Polysilicon**: It includes the price, production, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and related accessories, reflecting the operating conditions of the polysilicon industry and its downstream industries [52][55]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [74][75]. - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [76][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend. It is expected that next week, the supply side's production scheduling will decrease, the demand side will continue to increase, and costs will remain low. The market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][7][75]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract opened at 80,000 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 80,780 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.97% [4]. - **Supply Side**: This week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, higher than the historical average. Lithium spodumene production was 12,904 tons, a 2.04% decrease from the previous period; lithium mica production was 2,881 tons, a 0.34% decrease; salt lake production was 3,247 tons, a 0.62% increase; and recycling production was 2,048 tons, a 1.59% increase [4]. - **Demand Side**: In September 2025, the demand for lithium carbonate was 116,801 physical tons, a 12.28% increase from the previous month. The predicted demand for next month is 123,198 physical tons, a 5.48% increase. The export volume in September was 151 tons, a 59.07% decrease, and the predicted export volume for next month is 324 tons, a 14.57% increase [5]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 80,623 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.21%, resulting in a loss of 1,205 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 85,678 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a loss of 8,291 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost was close to the ore - end cost, with average production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The smelter inventory was 32,051 tons, a 4.83% decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 53,288 tons, a 3.59% decrease, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 42,020 tons, a 1.47% increase, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% decrease, higher than the historical average [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The report presents long - term trends of lithium ore prices, production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China, and monthly imports of lithium concentrate from 2019 - 2025 [15]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance from September 2024 to September 2025, with fluctuations in the balance [18]. 3.2.2 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: It shows the weekly and monthly production, capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) from 2018 - 2025 [20]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from September 2024 to September 2025 shows that the demand, export, import, production, and balance vary monthly [25]. 3.2.3 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It presents the weekly capacity utilization, monthly production, and capacity of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) from 2018 - 2025 [28]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from September 2024 to September 2025 shows changes in demand, export, import, production, and balance [31]. 3.2.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit Analysis**: It analyzes the cost - profit of various lithium compounds, including purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide processing [34][36][39]. 3.2.5 Inventory - **Inventory Trends**: It shows the trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide inventories, including warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventories from different sources from 2021 - 2025 [41]. 3.2.6 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Cost**: It presents the price trends, monthly production, and cost of lithium batteries from 2021 - 2025 [45]. 3.2.7 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Production, and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows the price, cost, processing fee, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from 2018 - 2025 [50][53]. 3.2.8 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Production, and Inventory**: It presents the price, cost - profit, production, processing fee, import, export, and inventory of ternary materials from 2020 - 2025 [56][58]. 3.2.9 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Production, and Cost - Profit**: It shows the price, cost, profit, production, capacity, and monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium from 2019 - 2025 [60][63]. 3.2.10 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Inventory**: It presents the production, sales, export, sales penetration, zero - batch ratio, and inventory warning index of new energy vehicles from 2019 - 2025 [68][72]. 3.3 Technical Analysis This week, the main 01 contract showed an upward trend. Based on the chart of the LC main contract, it is expected that next week, the market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean**: In the short - term, US soybeans are in a moderately strong oscillation, waiting for further guidance on the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations and the harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybeans are in a narrow - range oscillation, affected by the US soybean trend, the cost of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. They are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, influenced by factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported soybeans [11]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal is oscillating and rising, driven by the US soybean trend. However, the short - term demand slump and the spot price discount limit the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, affected by factors such as the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations, the harvest weather in the US, and the arrival of imported soybeans [10]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips The document does not mention specific weekly tips. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the domestic soybean meal market is oscillating moderately strongly in the short term and will return to the range - bound pattern in the medium term [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China will decrease in November, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills will remain high. The demand for soybean meal in November is weak, but the cost of imported soybeans will rise at the end of the year [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Positive Factors**: The preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in November; South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - **Positive Factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Negative Factors**: After the preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations, China starts to purchase US soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the soybean price [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the global soybean supply - demand balance sheet from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. 3.4.2 USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Report in the Past Six Months It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 [22]. 3.4.3 US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024 The report details the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024, as well as the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [23][24][25]. 3.4.4 Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress It includes the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, and the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 season [26][27][28][30]. 3.5 Position Data The document does not mention position data. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market Analysis US soybeans are oscillating and rising due to the preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations, but the bumper harvest of US soybeans limits the upward space. The short - and medium - term trends are mainly affected by the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the implementation of the China - US trade agreement [34]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Arrival of Imported Soybeans**: The arrival of imported soybeans in November is decreasing from a high level, and the year - on - year overall shows an increase [37]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills remains high, the soybean meal inventory has a slight increase, the soybean crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal production in September increases year - on - year [38][40]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement has a slight decrease, and the pick - up volume is decreasing from a high level [45]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreasing month - on - month. The pig price has stopped falling and started to rise recently, and the profit of pig farming has improved [47][49][53]. 3.7 Market Structure of Meal Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Basis Analysis**: The soybean meal futures are oscillating and rising, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot discount has a slight increase [58]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has rebounded from a low level [60]. 3.8 Technical Analysis 3.8.1 Soybean Technical Analysis The soybean futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in an oscillatory state, and the soybean futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for new market guidance [65]. 3.8.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis The soybean meal futures are oscillating and rising. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the soybean meal futures are in an oscillatory and rebound stage, and the upward space is limited. They are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for new guidance from the US and domestic markets [68]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [71][72]. - **Second - Most Important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [73]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict [73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although China and the US, the two largest oil - consuming countries, have reached an agreement, it cannot reverse the supply - demand imbalance in the crude oil market or prevent oil prices from approaching the lowest level since the COVID - 19 pandemic. The market is still evaluating the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil producers. Geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Venezuela, may impact oil prices. Short - term oil prices are more affected by geopolitical events. For trading, short - term operations are recommended in the range of 450 - 475, and long - term investors should wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Last week, crude oil fluctuated. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $60.88 per barrel, down 0.91% for the week; Brent crude futures closed at $64.58 per barrel, down 0.52% for the week; China's crude oil futures SC main contract closed at 463.6 yuan per barrel, down 0.28% for the week. OPEC+ plans to increase production, and concerns about supply surplus pressured oil prices. There were also geopolitical events like the potential US strike on Venezuela and the easing of Sino - US relations, which made the oil price fluctuate [3]. - The World Bank predicts that the global crude oil daily supply surplus may reach 4 million barrels in 2026. Since the beginning of this year, there has been a daily supply surplus of 1.9 million barrels in the global crude oil market, and OPEC+ has been increasing production quotas, adding to the supply pressure [4]. - The head of Europe's largest refiner said the market underestimated the impact of Western sanctions on Russia, and some Indian refiners have suspended Russian crude oil purchases [4]. - The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut by the Fed cooled on Friday, and the three major US stock indexes narrowed their gains [4]. 3.2 Related News - There were reports about the potential US military strike on Venezuela, which first pushed up oil prices but then prices fell after the White House's denial [3]. - The head of Europe's largest refiner said the market underestimated the impact of sanctions on Russia, and some Indian refiners' purchasing decisions were affected [4]. - Fed officials' statements on interest rates affected the market's expectation of a December rate cut [4]. 3.3 Outlook - The agreement between China and the US cannot change the supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The market is evaluating the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the geopolitical situation in Venezuela remains tense. Short - term oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. Short - term operations are recommended in the range of 450 - 475, and long - term investors should wait and see [5]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Weekly Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as UK Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. all increased. For example, UK Brent Dtd increased by 2.25 to 87.41, with a growth rate of 2.65% [7]. - **Inventory Data**: EIA inventory and Cushing inventory data showed fluctuations. For example, EIA inventory decreased by 685.8 barrels to 41596.6 barrels on October 24, and Cushing inventory increased by 133.4 barrels to 2256.5 barrels on the same date [9][10]. 3.5持仓数据 - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of September 23, the net long positions increased by 4249 contracts to 102958 contracts [3][19]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of October 21, the net long positions decreased by 57085 contracts to 52521 contracts [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and follows the soybean meal to oscillate and rebound. It is currently in an interval oscillation pattern, affected by factors such as the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the improvement rumors of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to oscillate with a slight upward trend. For the RM2601 contract, it oscillates around 2400 in the short term, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt - The rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and in a technical oscillation adjustment. The market returns to oscillation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but the low inventory supports the market. Due to uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain an interval oscillation in the short term, affected by soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced the short - term export and domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the further development of China - Canada trade relations. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The reduction in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. - **Bearish factors**: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand balance sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. - **Import and production situation**: There is no ship schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remains low, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories continue to decline. - **Aquaculture situation**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable. The rapeseed meal futures have rebounded after reaching the bottom, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuates slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has rebounded from a low level [16][18][19]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The rapeseed meal rebounds with the soybean meal and returns to an interval oscillation pattern due to the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The future China - Canada trade relationship is uncertain, affecting the market. - The KDJ indicator rebounds from a low level. It is in a short - term technical rebound stage, but the high - level indicator limits the rebound height. - The MACD rebounds from a low level, and the green energy turns red. The subsequent upward trend depends on the soybean meal and rapeseed import policies. Overall, the rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds in the short term and maintains an interval oscillation in the medium term, mainly driven by policy changes and short - term soybean meal trends [42]. 3.6 Next Week's Focus - **Most important**: The harvesting weather in the US soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and startup of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China. - **Second important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In November 2025, the total planned output of refinery asphalt is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 33.3174%, a month - on - month increase of 0.239 percentage points. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 is 11.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the modified asphalt开工率 is 15.0301%, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 33%, a month - on - month increase of 1.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 30%, unchanged from the previous month [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 594.72 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 594.5071 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 13.47%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. Crude oil is weakening, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [7]. - Basis: On October 31, the spot price in Shandong was 3,230 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 14 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 937,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%; the in - plant inventory is 685,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 200,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%. All inventories are decreasing. It is neutral [7]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20. It is bearish [7]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, with a decrease in long positions. It is bullish [7]. - Expectation: Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and sluggish; inventory is flat; crude oil is weakening, and cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3,222 - 3,266 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Bullish factor: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [9]. - Bearish factors: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [10]. - Main logic: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures closing prices: The prices of 01 - 06 contracts all decreased to varying degrees, with the decline ranging from - 0.09% to - 0.76% [14]. - Basis: The basis of each contract also changed, with some showing significant fluctuations [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory, in - plant inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory all decreased, with decreases of - 6.77%, - 3.52%, and - 33.33% respectively [14]. - Production and sales: The sample enterprise output increased by 0.72% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise shipment increased by 13.98% month - on - month [14]. - Profits: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 2.60% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit decreased by 13.47% month - on - month [14]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [16][17] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main contract spreads: The historical trends of spreads between 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 are shown [19][20] - Asphalt - crude oil price trends: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and WTI oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [22][23] - Crude oil cracking spreads: The historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown [25][26][27] - Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trends: The historical trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 are presented [29][31] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Prices in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [32][33] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: - Asphalt profit: The historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 are presented [35][36] - Coking - asphalt profit spread trend: The historical trends of coking - asphalt profit spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown [38][40] - Supply - side: - Shipment volume: The historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 are presented [41][42] - Diluted asphalt port inventory: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 are shown [43][44] - Output: The historical trends of weekly and monthly output from 2019 to 2025 are presented [46][47] - Marru crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output trend: The historical trends of Marru crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 are shown [49][51] - Refinery asphalt output: The historical trends of refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 are presented [52][53] - Capacity utilization rate: The historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 are presented [55][56] - Maintenance loss estimate: The historical trends of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 to 2025 are shown [57][58] - Inventory: - Exchange warehouse receipts: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented [60][62][63] - Social inventory and in - plant inventory: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are presented [64][65] - In - plant inventory inventory ratio: The historical trends of in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 are presented [67][68] - Import and export situation: - Export and import trends: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented [70][71] - South Korean asphalt import spread trend: The historical trends of South Korean asphalt import spreads from 2020 to 2025 are presented [73][74] - Demand - side: - Petroleum coke output: The historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 are presented [76][77] - Apparent consumption: The historical trends of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 are presented [79][80] - Downstream demand: - Highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment trends: The historical trends from 2020 to 2025 are presented [82][83] - New local special bond trends: The historical trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented [84] - Infrastructure investment completion year - on - year: The historical trends from 2020 to 2024 are presented [84] - Downstream machinery demand trends: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 are presented [86][88] - Excavator monthly working hours trends: The historical trends from 2020 to 2025 are presented [90] - Asphalt capacity utilization rate: - Heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate: The historical trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented [91][92] - Asphalt capacity utilization rate by use: The historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 are presented [94][95] - Downstream capacity utilization situation: - Capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [96][97][99] - Supply - demand balance sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025 is presented, including monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [101][102]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly with average trading volume, mainly affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price remained firm, the nickel iron price continued to decline, the stainless - steel inventory increased slightly, and the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, but the overall boost was limited [8]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Views and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel View**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel iron price declined, the stainless - steel inventory increased slightly, and the long - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. The new energy vehicle production and sales data were good, but the overall boost was limited [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes** - Nickel ore prices (red clay nickel ore with different grades) remained unchanged compared to last week. The price of battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate also remained unchanged. The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained the same, while the high - nickel iron price decreased by 0.53%. The price of electrolytic nickel (Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory price) decreased, and the 304 stainless - steel price decreased by 0.36% [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market Conditions** - Nickel ore prices remained stable, and the freight remained the same as last week. As of October 30, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.791 million wet tons, a decrease of 1.26%. The imported nickel ore volume in September 2025 decreased by 3.66% month - on - month but increased by 33.91% year - on - year. The northern Philippines had a tender with a firm price, and the rainy season in Surigao was approaching [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions** - Nickel prices fluctuated weakly with average trading volume. In the long - term, the supply and demand will both increase, but the surplus pattern will not change. The substitution of ternary materials in the new energy industry chain is becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand is slowing down. In September 2025, China's refined nickel production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import and export volume also changed, with an increase in imports and a decrease in exports in September 2025 compared to the previous month. The LME and SHFE inventories increased [22][26][30]. - **Nickel Iron Market Conditions** - The nickel iron price declined. In September 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The nickel iron import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The inventory in September 2025 was 202,900 physical tons, equivalent to 19,900 nickel tons [44][48][51]. - **Stainless - Steel Market Conditions** - The 304 stainless - steel price decreased by 50 yuan/ton this week. In September 2025, the stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons, with an increase in the 300 - series production. The import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons. As of October 31, 2025, the national stainless - steel inventory increased by 370 tons [59][65][71]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales** - In September 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 23.7% and 24.6%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 35.2% and 34.9%. In September 2025, the total battery production was 151.2 GWh, and the power battery loading volume was 76.0 GWh [75][78]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. During the price decline this week, there was obvious position - increasing, and position - reducing occurred around 120,000. The MACD direction was not clear, and the KDJ was downward but not in the oversold area [81]. 4. Industry Chain Sorting Summary - **Fundamental View** - Nickel ore: Neutral, with stable quotes, flat freight, and the approaching rainy season. - Nickel iron: Neutral, with a stable - to - decreasing price and a certain decline in the cost line. - Refined nickel: Slightly bearish, with the long - term surplus pattern remaining unchanged and continuous inventory build - up at home and abroad. - Stainless - steel: Neutral, with a slight increase in inventory. - New energy: Neutral, with good production data and a year - on - year increase in ternary battery loading [84]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral strategy: The Shanghai nickel main contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, with support from the cost line below. The stainless - steel main contract will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [86][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel and ore markets strengthened this week due to positive market sentiment driven by the release of China's 14th Five - Year Plan and the potential easing of Sino - US trade conflicts. However, as these macro - level positive factors are realized, the market sentiment will cool down, and the trading logic will return to the industrial fundamentals. Fundamentally, the steel and ore markets remain weak, mainly because the terminal demand shows no sign of improvement. The rebound in the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils this week may not be sustainable, and the decline in steel mill profits will also suppress the demand for iron ore. The pattern of weak peak seasons for terminals may continue, and with no significant reduction in supply, the overall steel and ore markets are likely to maintain a weak outlook [60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: PB powder price increased from 778 yuan/wet ton to 803 yuan/wet ton, and the price of Brazilian mixed powder rose from 815 yuan/wet ton to 840 yuan/wet ton. The spot landing profit of PB powder improved from - 24.26 yuan/wet ton to - 15.51 yuan/wet ton, and that of Brazilian mixed powder increased from - 1.59 yuan/wet ton to 8.41 yuan/wet ton. Australia's shipments to China decreased by 34.9 tons to 1625.3 tons, while Brazil's shipments increased by 100.8 tons to 925.1 tons. The port inventory of imported iron ore increased by 163.44 tons to 15272.93 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 592 tons to 2084.3 tons. The port clearance volume increased by 9.15 tons to 331.22 tons. The daily port trading volume of iron ore decreased by 0.6 tons to 79.6 tons. The average daily hot - metal production decreased by 3.54 tons to 236.36 tons, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 45.02% [6]. 3.2 Market Current Situation Analysis - **One - week Data Changes**: The price of Shanghai rebar increased from 3200 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils rose from 3290 yuan/ton to 3330 yuan/ton. The blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96 percentage points to 81.75%, while the electric - furnace operating rate increased by 0.97 percentage points to 68.83%. The blast - furnace profit of rebar improved from - 60 yuan/ton to - 57 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils decreased from - 59 yuan/ton to - 114 yuan/ton. The electric - furnace profit of rebar increased from - 154 yuan/ton to - 139 yuan/ton. The weekly production of rebar increased by 5.52 tons to 212.59 tons, and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.11 tons to 323.56 tons. The weekly social inventory of rebar decreased by 6.67 tons to 430.81 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory decreased by 12.92 tons to 171.71 tons. The weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.64 tons to 328.93 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory increased by 0.31 tons to 77.66 tons. The weekly apparent consumption of rebar increased by 6.18 tons to 232.19 tons, and the weekly apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.16 tons to 331.89 tons. The trading volume of building materials decreased by 1157 tons to 89930 tons [29][31]. 3.3 Supply - and - Demand Data Analysis - **Operating Rates**: The blast - furnace operating rate decreased, and the electric - furnace operating rate increased. - **Production Volumes**: The production volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coils both increased. - **Profits**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, with the profit of rebar improving and that of hot - rolled coils declining. - **Inventories**: The social and enterprise inventories of rebar decreased, the social inventory of hot - rolled coils decreased, and the enterprise inventory increased slightly. - **Apparent Consumption**: The apparent consumption of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of building materials decreased [29][31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, the market may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment. [5][6][57] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract declined this week, opening at 4,708 yuan/ton on Monday and closing at 4,701 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 0.14%. [5] - **Supply Side**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.70%. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises this week was 78.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 329,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.10%, while that of ethylene enterprises was 147,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly. [5] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 50.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 37.83% (up 0.96 percentage points, below the historical average), 42% (up 0.799 percentage points, below the historical average), and 71.79% (down 0.70 percentage points, above the historical average) respectively. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.69%, a month - on - month increase of 18.93 percentage points, above the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to fall, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish. [5] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 763.08 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.50%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 544.5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,313.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may face pressure. [6] - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 337,968 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%, with the calcium carbide factory inventory at 252,368 tons (up 0.10% month - on - month) and the ethylene factory inventory at 85,600 tons (up 4.77% month - on - month). The social inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.65 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level. [6] 2. PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. Relevant price and trading volume data are presented in the charts, including opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as trading volume and moving average data. [13][56] - **Basis and Spread**: The report provides charts of the basis trend, the spread analysis of the main contract, and other relevant content, but no specific numerical analysis is given in the text. [10][16] 3. PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the analysis of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, etc., including their price trends, cost - profit situations, operating rates, production, and inventory changes over the years. [19][22][24][26][29] - **Supply and Demand Trends**: - **Supply**: The report shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, daily and weekly PVC production, maintenance volume, etc., over the years. [31][33] - **Demand**: It includes indicators such as daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rates of PVC, as well as the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) and the cost - profit, production, and consumption of paste resin. It also analyzes real - estate investment and construction data and macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment growth rate. [36][37][39][41][43][45] - **Inventory**: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventories, and production enterprise inventory days over the years. [47] - **Ethylene Method**: It includes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and relevant price spreads. [49] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export data. [52] 4. Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected that next week it may experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment. [57]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View Last week, with concentrated events including a hawkish stance from the Fed Chair and an optimistic outcome of China - US consultations, precious metal prices stopped falling and rebounded. However, the upward momentum of gold and silver is significantly weakened due to optimistic trade expectations and cooling rate - cut expectations, and they are expected to fluctuate mainly this week [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Price Changes**: All precious metal varieties showed price fluctuations. For example,沪金2512 fell 2.53%, COMEX gold fell 2.95%,沪银2512 fell 0.06%, and COMEX silver fell 0.69%. The US dollar index rose 0.8%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB depreciated 0.05% [4][15]. - **Policy Events**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, and the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive time. China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and the US reached trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries [15][16][17]. - **Investment and Trade Agreements**: Japan plans to invest $550 billion in the US, with energy as the key area. South Korea will invest $350 billion in the US, and the US will reduce the tariff on South Korean cars from 25% to 15% [18]. 3.2 Weekly Review This week, China will release important economic data for October, the US will release the ADP employment report, and Fed officials will speak frequently. Attention should be paid to the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling. With optimistic trade expectations and cooling rate - cut expectations, the upward momentum of gold and silver is weakened, and they will mainly fluctuate [15]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price and Ratio Charts**: There are charts showing the ratio of domestic and foreign precious metal spot prices, the relationship between London gold spot prices and the US dollar index, and the relationship between London silver spot prices and the US dollar index [19][21][22]. - **Yield Data**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fluctuated and fell back to 4.38% [25]. 3.4 Position Data - **Domestic Positions**: The net position of Shanghai gold began to rise, with both long and short positions increasing. The net position of Shanghai silver continued to decrease, with both long and short positions decreasing. As of September 23rd, the net long position of CFTC gold slightly increased, and the net long position of CFTC silver continued to increase [28][30][32]. - **ETF Positions**: The positions of SPDR gold ETF continued to decrease, and the positions of silver ETF also continued to decrease [35][37]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai gold inventory continued to increase, COMEX gold inventory continued to decrease, Shanghai silver inventory stopped falling and rebounded, and COMEX silver inventory continued to decrease [39][40][42].