1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to oscillate between 74,820 - 76,580 [8][9][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The September 2025 import volume was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10% increase [8][9] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][9] - Cost: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, but is below the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,442 yuan/ton, a 1.46% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,159 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica is 77,485 yuan/ton, a 2.13% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 7,190 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10] - Other factors: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decline in spodumene imports. Bearish factors include high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline and weak demand from the power battery end [11][12] 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price changes: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,000 yuan/ton to 73,350 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 70,750 yuan/ton to 71,100 yuan/ton, a 0.49% increase. The price of lithium ore and other related products also showed different degrees of increase [16] - Supply - demand data: The weekly operating rate was 74.39%, a 3.08 percentage - point increase. The monthly production was 311,670 tons, a 17.74% increase. The monthly demand for phosphoric acid iron - lithium increased by 12.75%, and the monthly demand for ternary materials increased by 25.89%. The monthly net import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,478.01 tons, a 59.34% increase [19] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of 6% spodumene increased from 829 US dollars/ton to 846 US dollars/ton, a 2.05% increase [16] - Production: The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica showed different trends in different years [24] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 55,950 tons, a 4.91% increase. The import volume from Australia decreased by 50.47%, while the import volume from Chile increased by 81.83% [19] - Self - sufficiency rate: The self - sufficiency rates of spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica showed different trends in different years [24] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating rate: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production showed different trends in different years [30] - Production: The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a 2.37% increase. The production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, recycling) showed different trends [19][30] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,846.92 tons, a 57.79% increase. The import volume from Chile was 15,607.56 tons, an 81.83% increase [19] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years [39] - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) showed different trends [39] - Export: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years [39] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Spodumene and lithium mica: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses. The processing cost composition of spodumene and lithium mica includes energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items [10][44] - Recycling: The cost - profit situation of recycling different types of battery black powder (phosphoric acid iron - lithium, ternary) for lithium carbonate production showed different trends [46] - Other: The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, and the profit of processing different types of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [46][49] 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: The total inventory was 132,658 tons, a 1.58% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of smelters decreased by 1.33%, the downstream inventory decreased by 3.39%, and other inventory increased by 0.87% [10] - Lithium hydroxide: The inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) showed different trends [51] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The prices of different types of batteries (523 square, power - type square phosphoric acid iron - lithium, energy - storage 280Ah square phosphoric acid iron - lithium) showed different trends [55] - Production: The monthly production of battery cells (power - type ternary, power - type phosphoric acid iron - lithium, energy - storage) showed different trends [55] - Loading volume: The total monthly loading volume of power batteries was 76,000 GWh, a 21.60% increase. The loading volume of phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries increased by 26.61%, and the loading volume of ternary batteries increased by 20.54% [19] - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends in different years [55] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The prices of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [61] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of ternary precursors showed different trends [61] - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors was 88,070 tons, a 20.82% increase for the 622 type [19][61] - Supply - demand balance: The balance in September 2025 was 5,258 tons, showing different supply - demand relationships in different months [64] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The prices of different types of ternary materials (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [67] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of ternary materials showed different trends [67] - Production: The production of ternary materials from different series (NCA, 3 - series, 5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [67] - Export: The export volume of ternary materials showed different trends in different years [69] 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium - Price: The prices of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [72] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [72] - Production: The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [75] - Export: The monthly export volume of phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends in different years [75] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) showed different trends in different years [80] - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) showed different trends in different years [80] - Export: The export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different years [80] - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different years [81]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the supply pressure of PVC decreased, but next week, the number of overhauls is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4659 - 4717. The fundamentals are neutral, and factors such as macro - policies and export dynamics should be continuously monitored [6]. - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [6][9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 317,720 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 149,660 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. Next week, the number of overhauls is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [6]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 48.59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 33.26%, a month - on - month increase of 7.39 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 72.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.569 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 46.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 30.4 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand is close to the historical average [6]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 713.18 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 14.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 552.76 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 2.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,363.45 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.80% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Basis**: On October 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,660 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 28 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory inventory was 360,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.06%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 277,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.71%. The ethylene factory inventory was 83,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. The social inventory was 556,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.76%. It is bearish [6]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [6]. 2. PVC Market Overview - Various indicators such as prices, spreads,开工率, profits, and inventories of different types of PVC enterprises and contracts are presented, including changes compared with the previous values and their respective growth or decline rates [13]. 3. PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The historical basis trend of PVC, along with the East China market price and the main contract closing price, is shown from 2022 to 2025 [16]. - **Price and Volume Trend**: The price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from September to October 2025 are presented [19]. - **Spread Analysis**: The historical spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 are shown [22]. 4. PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: The price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and other data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [25][28][30][32]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, production profits, daily and weekly production, and overhaul volumes of PVC are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [37][39]. - **Demand Trend**: The daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream开工率 of different products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin), and related data of the real estate market and social financing scale are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [41][44][46][51][54]. - **Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [56]. - **Ethylene Method**: The import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride are presented, along with their historical trends from multiple years [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and export, are presented [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump's administration signaled a relaxation of its attitude towards China, stabilizing the financial market and causing oil prices to stabilize and rebound. However, the overall trend remains bearish, with Brent crude briefly falling below the $60 mark, exerting significant psychological pressure on the market. Currently, there is a lack of geopolitical impetus, and oil prices are oscillating at a low level. SC2512 is expected to trade in the range of 435 - 445, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump said the proposed 100% tariff on Chinese goods was unsustainable, and blamed China for the latest deadlock in trade negotiations. China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon. The Putin - Trump summit may be held in two weeks or later. The situation is neutral. - **Basis**: On October 17, the spot price of Oman crude was $62.19 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $62.11 per barrel, with a basis of 34.77 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish signal. - **Inventory**: For the week ending October 10 in the US, API crude inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels (expected increase: 233,000 barrels), and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels (expected increase: 288,000 barrels). Cushing region inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels. As of October 17, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels. This is a bearish signal. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is a bearish signal. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased. As of October 14, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased. This is a bearish signal [3] 2. Recent News - The US Treasury Secretary, Beisente, plans to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of US tariffs on China. He also called on the IMF and the World Bank to take a tougher stance on China. - The Israeli military launched attacks on Hamas targets in southern Gaza in response to what it called Hamas' violation of the cease - fire agreement. - Trump urged Ukrainian President Zelensky to accept Russia's conditions to end the conflict and warned that if Ukraine refused, Russia would "destroy" the country [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The threat of Trump's tariffs has eased, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict poses a threat to refineries and oil fields. - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of the US government shutting down, and OPEC+ is considering further production increases. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a long - term risk of increased supply. - **Risk Points**: The unity within OPEC+ may be disrupted, leading to increased production, and the war risk may escalate [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude decreased from $61.91 to $61.06, a decline of 1.37%. WTI crude decreased from $58.27 to $56.99, a decline of 2.20%. SC crude remained unchanged at $443.2. Oman crude increased from $62.38 to $63.00, an increase of 0.99%. - **Spot Quotes**: The price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $63.13 to $62.08, a decline of 1.66%. WTI decreased from $58.27 to $57.46, a decline of 1.39%. Oman crude in the Asia - Pacific region increased from $63.16 to $63.51, an increase of 0.55%. Shengli crude decreased from $59.48 to $59.43, a decline of 0.08%. Dubai crude increased from $62.75 to $62.85, an increase of 0.16%. - **Inventory Trends**: API inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels for the week ending October 10. EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels for the same week [7][9][10][14] 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of October 14, the net long position was 109,606, a decrease of 37,794 [17][19]

证券代码：839979 PVC期货周报 2025年10月13日-10月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周01合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为4730元/吨,周五收盘价为4688元/吨，周跌幅为0.88% 供给端来看,据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨,环比减少2.05%;本周样本企 业产能利用率为76.69%,环比减少0.07个百分点;电石法企业产量31.772万吨,环比减少9.92%,乙 烯法企业产量14.966万吨,环比减少0.78%;本周供给压力有所减少;下周预计检修有所减少，预计 排产少量增加。 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为48.59%,环比增加.38个百分点,低于历史平均水平;下游型材 开工率为33.26 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [3] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices continue to decline, there are signs of easing between the US and Russia, and the trade tension between the US and China persists. Fuel oil continues to be under pressure and fluctuates at a low level. With relatively sufficient supply in the spot fundamentals, it will operate weakly in the short term. FU2601 is expected to run in the range of 2640 - 2680, and LU2512 in the range of 3070 - 3110 [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For fuel oil, the fundamentals show that Asia may have sufficient supply in November due to high existing inventories and continuous inflow of Russian high - sulfur products. The recovery of high - sulfur fuel oil refining profit margins suppresses refinery raw material demand. The premium of Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil terminal delivery term contract declined in October. The inventory in Singapore increased in the week of October 15. The price is below the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line trending down. High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and decreasing. The expected price ranges are given for FU2601 and LU2512 [3] 2. Multi - Short Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: Russia's extension of fuel export restrictions [4] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Uncertainty in demand optimism and the easing of relations between the US and Russia after their talks [4] - **Market Drivers**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks while demand remains neutral [4] 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: Asia may have sufficient supply in November, and high - sulfur fuel oil refining profit margins suppress raw material demand. The premium of low - sulfur fuel oil term contracts declined in October due to sufficient inventory and weak demand [3] - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 369.75 dollars/ton with a basis of 26 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is at 430.6 dollars/ton with a basis of - 6 yuan/ton. Spot is at par with futures [3] - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of October 15 was 2235.9 million barrels, an increase of 174 million barrels [3] - **Market Chart**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is trending down [3] - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and decreasing [3] 4. Spread Data - The report does not provide specific spread data analysis other than the basis information [3] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 6 to October 15 is provided, showing fluctuations and an increase in the week of October 15 [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年10月20日 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面：贸易乐观预期回归，金价上破千位后大幅回落；美国三大股指全线收 涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨4个基 点报4.01%；美元指数涨0.20%报98.56，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1269； COMEX黄金期货跌0.85%报4267.90美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注二十届四中全会、中国三季度GDP和9月系列经济数据、9月LPR、 日央行委员讲话。中美贸易乐观预期回归，美元指数回升，金价回落。另外美国地 区性银行信贷风险外溢，引发市场对金融系统稳定性的担忧，金价或受此影响。沪 金溢价小幅扩大至-1.5元/克，国内情绪继续升温。贸易担忧降温，金价向上趋势不 变，短期将震荡。 CONTENTS 目 录 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. Supply increased while demand remained sluggish, and costs had some upward support. It is expected that the supply will increase next week, demand recovery will be at a low level, and the market is likely to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 12 contract showed an upward trend this week. Supply is expected to increase, and although short - term demand in some sectors may decrease, it is expected to recover in the medium term. The market is expected to have a neutral oscillatory adjustment next week [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The 01 contract had an opening price of 8,595 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 8,430 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.91% [4]. - **Supply**: This week's supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week. Sample enterprise production was 48,285 tons, a 2.93% increase. Different regions had varying changes in production rates, and the expected monthly production rate is 69.23%, a 7.29 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week's demand was 74,000 tons, a 9.75% decrease from the previous week. Demand in various downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy was generally weak [5]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passed 553 was 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 168,000 tons, a 0.09% increase; and major port inventory remained unchanged at 120,000 tons [5]. - **Outlook**: Supply is expected to increase next week, demand recovery will be at a low level, and the market is likely to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The 12 contract had an opening price of 48,575 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 52,340 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 7.75% [7]. - **Supply**: Last week's production was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The planned production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from last month [7]. - **Demand**: In different downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, there were different changes in production, inventory, and profit situations. Some sectors were in a loss state, and some were profitable [7]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon material was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 16,650 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Outlook**: Supply is expected to continue to increase next week. Although short - term demand in some sectors may decrease, it is expected to recover in the medium term, and the market is expected to have a neutral oscillatory adjustment [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: Analyzed the trends of the basis and the spread between delivery products of industrial silicon [15]. - **Inventory**: Presented the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and types of warehouses, including delivery warehouses and ports [19]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Showed the production, capacity utilization, and production rate trends of industrial silicon in different regions and by different specifications [21]. - **Cost**: Analyzed the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, including factors such as electricity prices, silica prices, and graphite electrode prices [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Provided weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon and its downstream products such as polysilicon, showing the supply, demand, and balance situations in different periods [30][33][56]. - **Downstream Analysis**: Analyzed the production, price, inventory, and supply - demand situations of industrial silicon's downstream products, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [35][41][44][52]. 3. Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The SI main contract showed a downward trend this week. Based on price and volume data and moving average analysis, it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [75][76]. - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The PS main contract showed an upward trend this week. Based on price and volume data and moving average analysis, it is expected to have a narrow - range oscillatory adjustment next week [77][78].

证券代码：839979 沥青期货周报 2025年10月13日-10月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周01合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为3310元/吨,周五收盘价为3135元/吨，周跌幅为5.28% 供给端来看，根据隆众对96家企业跟踪，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万 吨，环比增幅3.5%,同比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为37.3921%，环比增加 0.359个百分点，全国样本企业出货25.335万吨，环比增加14.48%,样本企业产量为62.4万吨， 环比增加0.97%,样本企业装置检修量预估为61.6万吨，环比减少1.44%,本周炼厂有所增产，提 升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-20甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：近期国内甲醇市场整体弱势下行，除宏观消息面对大宗商品集中压制外，甲醇供需面的持续博弈对行情利 空同步体现；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2320元/吨，01合约基差48，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2025年10月16日，华东、华南港口甲醇社会库存总量为125.89万吨，较上周期库存小幅降库1.41万吨；沿 海地区（江苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇整体可流通货源减少6.34万吨至87.70万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在均线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：预计本周甲醇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 37.3921%, a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - On the demand side, the current demand is below the historical average. The start - up rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are all lower than the historical average, with only the waterproofing membrane start - up rate showing a month - on - month increase of 3.50 percentage points [8]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit was - 299.81 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 718.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.59%. The decline in asphalt processing losses and the narrowing profit gap between asphalt and delayed coking, along with the weakening of crude oil, are expected to lead to a short - term weakening of cost support [9]. - The overall view is that the fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish; inventory is neutral; the disk is bearish; and the main position is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2601 fluctuating in the range of 3114 - 3156 [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The planned production in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipments increased, while the estimated maintenance volume decreased, increasing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of various types of asphalt are lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - **Cost**: The processing profit decreased, and the profit gap with delayed coking narrowed. Crude oil is weak, and cost support is expected to weaken [9]. - **Prediction**: The fundamentals are bearish, the basis is bullish, inventory is neutral, the disk is bearish, and the main position is bearish. The disk is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2601 in the 3114 - 3156 range [8][10][11]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logical factors are high supply pressure and weak demand recovery. The main risk points are the change in crude oil prices and the profit gap trend between asphalt and coking products [13][14][15] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Market Overview**: The report provides detailed data on the current values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators of different asphalt contracts, including futures closing prices, basis, inventory, and production [18]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the historical basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It depicts the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil - Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It depicts the historical price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [52][54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. - **Start - up Rate**: It presents the historical weekly start - up rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [58][59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [64][65][66]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [68][69]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical factory inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][75]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: It presents the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025, the new local special bond trend from 2019 to 2025, and the year - on - year change in infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [86][87][88]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025, as well as the monthly operating hours of excavators from 2020 to 2025 [90][91][94]. - **Asphalt Start - up Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Start - up Rate**: It shows the historical start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [95][96]. - **Asphalt Start - up Rate by Use**: It presents the historical start - up rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [98][99]. - **Downstream Start - up Situation**: It shows the historical start - up rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].