Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with increasing supply, weak demand, rising cost support, and high inventory levels. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. - The polysilicon market has increasing supply, short - term demand reduction in some sectors but mid - term recovery expected, stable cost support, and the 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: The polysilicon inventory was 253,000 tons. Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 74,000 tons, with high - level polysilicon inventory, low - level organic silicon inventory, and high - level alloy ingot inventory. The demand remained sluggish [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - fed 553 silicon was 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 17, the spot price of non - oxygen - fed silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 500 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 168,000 tons, a 0.09% increase. The main port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 01 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The supply schedule increased and was near the historical average level. The demand recovery was at a low level, and the cost support increased. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 8310 - 8550 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The planned production for October was 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 14.35GW, a 11.84% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 173,100 tons, a 3.15% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The planned production for October was 55.68GW, a 5.70% decrease from the previous month. The battery cell production and component production also showed certain changes in production and inventory [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 17, the price of N - type dense material was 51,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 12 contract was - 2065 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the 12 contract price closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [8]. - Expectation: The supply schedule continued to increase. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components was expected to recover in the mid - term after a short - term decrease. The overall demand showed continuous recovery, and the cost support remained stable. The 2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 51495 - 53185 [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of industrial silicon showed different price changes. The weekly social inventory increased, and the sample enterprise inventory also changed slightly. The production and cost - profit data of different regions and products were also provided [15]. - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: The historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon were presented [19]. - Inventory: The historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions, including delivery warehouses and ports, sample enterprises, and registered warehouse receipts, were shown [26]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, industrial silicon monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise opening rates in different regions were presented [28]. - Cost: The historical trends of production costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - fed 553 silicon in Xinjiang were shown [34]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon were provided, showing production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [36][39]. Polysilicon - Market Overview: Various contracts of polysilicon showed different price changes. The production, inventory, and cost - profit data of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were also provided [17]. - Disk Price Trends: The historical trends of the PS main contract price, trading volume, and basis were presented [23]. - Fundamental Trends: The historical trends of polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, opening rate, and monthly demand were shown [60]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon was provided, showing supply, import, export, consumption, and balance data [63]. - Downstream Trends: The historical trends of price, production, inventory, and export of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories were presented [66][69][72][75]. - Component Cost - Profit: The historical trends of silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit of 210mm double - sided double - glass components were shown [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and maintains an oscillating pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Sino - Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 oscillates between 2340 and 2400. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory shows a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions increase with capital inflow, which is bearish. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of Sino - Canadian tariff reduction, it returns to an oscillating pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, with decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export and domestic supply expectations. The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports in China is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production increases this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future of global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the addition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors are that domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season and the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 9th to 17th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal futures and spot prices, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts are presented. Rapeseed meal futures oscillate downward, while the spot is relatively stable, with a small fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remains flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices rise slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [13][15][16] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报10.13-10.17 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 从成本端来看，焦炭市场暂稳、锰矿市场偏弱暂稳。北方市场成本支撑力度弱于南方市场。 从供应端来看，北方地 区硅锰工厂生产节奏基本稳定，另外，据了解北方地区后期有增产的预期。南方市场来看，广西、贵州两地硅锰工厂 开工率长期维持低位，短期暂无明显变动；而云南地区受丰水期结束影响，电价即将上涨，硅锰生产总成本将显著抬 升。目前已有云南工厂明确表示将在电价调整后启动减产，预计后续云南地区硅锰开工率将逐步下降 从需求端来 看，河钢集团10月硅锰二轮询价5800元/吨，比较首轮询价5750元/吨上调50元，对比看，9月硅锰定价：6000元/吨。 市场观望河钢的最终定价。 总体来看，供需基本面无较大变动，十月 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（10.13~10.17） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周震荡运行，上周主力合约下跌0.33%，周五收盘报20910元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税，消费有 所影响。国内基本面上，需求进入旺季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存491225吨，较前周出现小幅减少， SHFE周库存减2649吨至122028吨。 期货主力 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level needs to be monitored for the rebound of the market [10]. - For PTA, although the spot basis weakened due to the resumption of some device loads and new device commissioning last week, it is close to the risk - free arbitrage level. With the load reduction of some mainstream PTA suppliers' devices, the downward space of the basis is expected to be limited. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory is expected to remain stable at the beginning of this week. Although the spot supply is abundant due to the continuous recovery of the load last week, there is replenishment demand at the low price, so the price center is expected to adjust at a low level in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: On Friday, individual devices unexpectedly reduced their loads, and the basis slightly strengthened during the day session. The October cargo was traded at a discount of 80 - 85 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4310 - 4370. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 85 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4340, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 62, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main position: Net short position with an increase in short positions [5]. - Expectation: The basis is expected to have limited downward space, and the absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term. Pay attention to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market basis slightly strengthened. The intraday futures price opened high and then declined. Some traders with contract gaps participated in replenishment at low prices. The spot basis moderately strengthened in the afternoon, and the spot was traded at a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The overseas price center also weakened [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4096, and the basis of the 01 contract is 93, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.5 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous period [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main position: Net short position with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The port inventory is expected to remain stable at the beginning of this week. The price center is expected to adjust at a low level in the short term. Pay attention to the polyester load and device changes [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity gradually increased, and the production and demand also showed certain fluctuations. For example, in October 2025, the production capacity was 9172, the output was 647, and the total demand was 669 [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total supply and demand of ethylene glycol also changed. In October 2025, the total supply was 252, and the total demand was 249 [12]. Price Data - On October 17, 2025, compared with the previous day, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers showed different degrees of change. For example, the spot price of naphtha increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, while the CCFEI price index of PTA decreased by 40 to 4330 yuan/ton [13]. Inventory Data - The inventory of PTA factories, MEG ports, and various polyester products showed different trends from 2021 to 2025 [41][43][49]. Production Rate Data - The production rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms showed different trends from 2020 to 2025 [52][54][56][58]. Profit Data - The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and various polyester products showed different trends from 2022 to 2025 [13][60][62][64][66][67]. 5. Impact Factor Summary - Bullish factors: Before the festival, the polyester market sales were booming under the resonance of demand recovery and oil price rebound. The inventory of POY and FDY decreased rapidly, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. The 2.2 - million - ton device of Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load [8][9]. - Bearish factors: The 3.6 - million - ton device of Yisheng New Materials reached full load, and the loads of 3.2 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang and 2.5 - million - ton device of Weilian Chemical increased [9].

Report Information - Report Date: October 20, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wang Mingwei [1] -从业资格号: F0283029 [1] - Investment Advisory Number: Z0010442 [1] - TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global oil and fat fundamentals are generally loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Domestic fundamentals are also loose, with stable oil and fat supplies. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - reduction season, reducing the supply pressure of palm oil [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8452, with a basis of 196, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, export data is increasing, and it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9300, with a basis of - 8, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above, and it will enter the production - increase season, increasing palm oil supply [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10146, with a basis of 285, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **利空**: Oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The analysis centers around the generally loose global oil and fat fundamentals [5] Supply - Related Information - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Mentioned but no specific data analysis provided [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: August 22 inventory was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% year - on - year [2] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: August 22 port inventory was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and down 34.1% year - on - year [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: August 22 commercial inventory was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% year - on - year [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [21][22] - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [23][24] - **Oil Mill Soybean Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [7][8] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [9][10] - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [11][12] Demand - Related Information - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with a larger increase in short positions. Overall, it was a decline on heavy volume. As the price dropped, long - position entrances were active, while short - position pressure also intensified. In the short term, the market may continue to weaken. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing its support. Short - term indicator KDJ declined and operated in the weak zone; the trend indicator showed that the long - position strength decreased, the short - position strength increased, and the dominance of short - position strength expanded. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 will weaken in a volatile manner [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons. From January to July, global zinc ore production was 7.3437 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis was +110 with the spot price at 21,940, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - On October 17, LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons to 38,025 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 149 tons to 67,317 tons compared to the previous day, which is bullish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions were net short, and the short positions decreased, which is bearish [2]. - LME inventory warrants remained at a low level, while SHFE warrants remained at a high level [2]. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on October 17 - The total trading volume of zinc futures on October 17 was 193,359 lots, with a total trading value of 2.11968143 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 229,292 lots, an increase of 9,437 lots [3]. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on October 17 - Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was priced at 17,090 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. Zinc ingots in a certain area were priced at 21,940 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. Galvanized sheets in a certain area were priced at 3,969 yuan/ton, unchanged. Galvanized pipes in a certain area were priced at 4,373 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. Zinc alloy in Ningbo was priced at 22,400 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. Zinc powder in Changsha was priced at 27,170 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. Zinc oxide in Taizhou was priced at 20,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. Secondary zinc oxide in a certain area was priced at 7,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/9/29 - 2025/10/16) - As of October 16, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.556 million tons, an increase of 195,000 tons compared to October 9 and an increase of 21,000 tons compared to October 13 [5]. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on October 17 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on October 17 were 67,317 tons, a decrease of 149 tons compared to the previous day. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong were 37,874 tons, in Jiangsu were 447 tons (a decrease of 75 tons), and in Tianjin were 28,996 tons (a decrease of 74 tons) [6]. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on October 17 - On October 17, LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons compared to the previous day [7]. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on October 17 - Zinc concentrates with a 50% grade in various regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, and Hechi all decreased by 60 yuan/ton [9]. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on October 17 - Zinc ingots of 0 grade from various smelters such as Hunan Zhizhihai, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan all decreased by 70 yuan/ton [12]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The production was 1.35% lower than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.80%. The planned production for October was 509,600 tons [14]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on October 17 - Zinc concentrate processing fees in different domestic regions ranged from 3,000 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton for 50% grade concentrates, and the import processing fee for 48% grade concentrates was 105 US dollars/kiloton [16]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on October 17 - For the zn2512 contract, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 130,772 lots, an increase of 11,837 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 77,815 lots, an increase of 10,127 lots, and the total short - position volume was 79,759 lots, an increase of 13,424 lots [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The supply of coking coal is relatively stable, and the overall decline in prices has narrowed after the previous drop. The total sample inventory has decreased compared to last week. Although the terminal demand is average and the raw material demand has slightly decreased, with the second round of price increase in the coke market, the short - term demand for coking coal is still supported, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - **焦炭**: The terminal performance is average, and the downstream has inventory accumulation. The daily average pig iron output has slightly declined. However, due to the existing demand from downstream steel mills, high operating loads of steel mills, low inventory of coking enterprises, and strong support from coking coal at the raw material end, the supply - demand gap of coke still exists. The second - round price increase in the spot market has been launched again, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Supply is stable, with no obvious fluctuations in production. Some downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and some high - price resources have low acceptance. Some coal mines may continue to adjust prices due to inventory pressure, but the overall decline has narrowed; rated as neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1260, and the basis is 81, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price; rated as bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons compared to last week; rated as bullish [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; rated as neutral [3]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is long, and the long position increases; rated as bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: Terminal demand is average. Some steel mills have maintenance due to profit, and pig iron production has slightly decreased. However, with the second - round price increase in the coke market, the short - term demand for coking coal is still supported, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include an increase in pig iron production and difficulty in increasing supply; bearish factors include a slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Daily Views - Coke - **Fundamentals**: The price of some coking coal has rebounded slightly. The profit of coking plants is around the break - even point, with some slightly in the red. The overall operating load has decreased steadily. Coking enterprises have high shipment enthusiasm, and the inventory is mostly at a low level; rated as neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1600, and the basis is - 76, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price; rated as bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons compared to last week; rated as bullish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line; rated as neutral [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position increases; rated as bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: Terminal performance is average, and the downstream has inventory accumulation. Some steel mills have started maintenance and production reduction, and the daily average pig iron output has slightly declined. However, considering the existing demand from downstream steel mills, high operating loads of steel mills, low inventory of coking enterprises, and strong support from coking coal at the raw material end, the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [6]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include an increase in pig iron production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. Price - **Coking Coal**: The document provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on October 17, 2025, including prices at different ports for various types of coking coal [10]. - **Coke**: The document provides the price index of port metallurgical coke on October 17, 2025, including prices of different grades of metallurgical coke at different ports and different trading methods [11]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [28]. Other Indicators - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-20锰硅早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 锰硅2601： 2 1.基本面：供需基本面无较大变动，十月份经济会议召开，宏观政策对市场的影响有待验证，短期硅锰市场仍将维持 "偏弱暂稳" 格局，后市硅锰合金价格需关注钢招定价对市场的指引以及经济会议对市场的影响；中性。 2.基差：现货价5680元/吨，01合约基差-38元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20走平，01合约期价收于MA20下方。中性。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2601：5700-5850震荡运行。 -2000元/吨 0 ...

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 利空： 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20930，基差20，升水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌2749吨至 122028吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 | ...