Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices continued to decline last week due to factors such as supply surplus, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment. However, there was a slight rebound at the end of the week [3]. - Market expectations for the Ukraine peace agreement and the US - China trade attitude influenced the short - term fluctuations of oil prices. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [3][6]. - Morgan Stanley believes that if Petro - Logistics' higher estimate of OPEC production is more accurate, it will change the market's understanding of OPEC's capacity, demand, and re - balancing path. The oil market may re - balance in the second half of 2027, with Brent crude oil expected to rise to $65 per barrel [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - **Price Movement**: New York Mercantile Exchange's main light crude oil futures closed at $57.25 per barrel, down 1.02% for the week; London Brent crude oil futures closed at $61.16 per barrel, down 1.50% for the week; China's Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 437.7 yuan per barrel, down 5.24% for the week [3]. - **Supply Situation**: The IEA reported a larger - than - expected supply surplus in the global crude oil market, and OPEC's total crude oil production in September increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day [3]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: The easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation led to a decline in oil prices, but the uncertainty of the Ukraine peace agreement and the US - China trade attitude had an impact on the short - term oil price trend [3]. - **Fund Data**: The speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 37,794 contracts to 109,606 contracts in the week of October 14. The speculative net long positions in WTI crude oil increased by 4,249 contracts to 102,958 contracts in the week of September 23 [3]. 3.2 Related News - **OPEC Production Estimate Discrepancy**: There is a significant difference in the estimates of OPEC crude oil production among different data providers. If Petro - Logistics' estimate is more accurate, it will have a major impact on the market's understanding of OPEC's production and market re - balancing [4]. - **India's Russian Oil Import**: A US White House official said that India had halved its purchase of Russian oil, but Indian sources said no immediate cuts were seen, and any cuts might be reflected in December or January import data [3]. 3.3 Outlook - **Geopolitical and Trade Factors**: Geopolitical concerns have weakened, and the US - China trade attitude has slightly softened. Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The recommended short - term trading range is between 430 - 465, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [6][7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various crude oil varieties decreased last week, with the British Brent Dtd down 6.68%, WTI down 4.87%, etc. [10]. - **Inventory Data**: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory showed different trends over time, with some periods of increase and decrease [12][13]. 3.5持仓数据 - **CFTC and ICE Data**: The net long positions of CFTC funds and ICE funds in crude oil futures showed different changes over different time periods, reflecting the market's attitude towards the future trend of crude oil prices [19][20]

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil Weekly Report (10.13 - 10.17) [1] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Last week, international crude oil fluctuated weakly, and fuel oil prices also weakened as geopolitical factors subsided. Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets were dragged down by sufficient supply, showing a weak overall trend. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,658 yuan/ton, down 4.42% for the week, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,091 yuan/ton, down 6.22% for the week [3]. - The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened due to weak downstream demand and continuous sufficient supply recently. The estimated arbitrage arrivals of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore in October are expected to increase. Singapore is expected to receive about 2.7 - 2.9 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in October, higher than about 2.3 - 2.4 million tons in September [3]. - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is also under pressure. Affected by high existing inventories and continuous and stable inflows of Russian high - sulfur products, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore in October remains sufficient. The recovery of high - sulfur fuel oil refining profit margins has suppressed refineries' raw material demand. Operationally, short - term trading of high - sulfur fuel oil is recommended in the range of 2,600 - 2,800 yuan/ton, and short - term trading of low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended in the range of 3,050 - 3,250 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly View - International crude oil and fuel oil prices weakened last week. High - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are affected by sufficient supply. High - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,658 yuan/ton with a 4.42% weekly decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,091 yuan/ton with a 6.22% weekly decline. Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakens, and Singapore's October arrivals are expected to increase. Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure, with sufficient supply and suppressed refinery demand. Short - term trading ranges are given for high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: The previous value of the FU main contract was 2,808 yuan/ton, and the current value is 2,688 yuan/ton, down 4.25%. The previous value of the LU main contract was 3,331 yuan/ton, and the current value is 3,175 yuan/ton, down 4.68% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various fuel oil products in Zhoushan and Singapore have different changes. For example, Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 2.38%, and Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 0.58% [5]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Consumption Data**: There are charts showing the consumption of fuel oil in Singapore, China, and the coking profit margin of Shandong fuel oil from 2021 to 2025, but specific numerical data for the current period are not further elaborated [6][7][8]. 3.4 Inventory Data - **Singapore Fuel Oil Inventory**: From July 23 to October 8, Singapore's fuel oil inventory showed fluctuations. For example, on July 23, the inventory was 19.909 million barrels, a decrease of 450,000 barrels compared to the previous period. On October 8, the inventory was 20.619 million barrels, a decrease of 1.64 million barrels compared to the previous period [9]. - There are also charts about Singapore's inventory seasonal trend and Zhoushan Port's fuel oil inventory trend, but specific numerical data are not provided [10][11]. 3.5 Spread Data - There is a chart showing the high - and low - sulfur futures spread, but specific numerical data are not provided [13].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the US government continued to shut down, trade concerns were high, and the expectation of interest rate cuts rose again. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The prices of gold and silver expanded their gains again. Shanghai gold closed up 9.94%, COMEX gold closed up 6.69%, Shanghai silver closed up 9.24%, and COMEX silver closed up 7.15%. The US dollar index significantly closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated slightly by 0.29%. On Friday night, affected by optimistic trade news, gold and silver prices tumbled [13]. - The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party basically reached a consensus on coalition governance. According to Japanese media, this means that Kōshi Kanasugi is almost certain to win the prime - ministerial nomination election on the 21st [13][14]. - On the morning of October 18th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [13][14]. - In terms of positions, the net position of Shanghai gold decreased significantly, with more long positions cut and short positions increased. The net position of Shanghai silver decreased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing significantly, but the long positions began to decrease in the second half of the week, which deviated significantly from the price increase. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13]. - This week, events and data are concentrated. China's Q3 GDP, social retail, real estate development investment and other economic data, and the US CPI and manufacturing PMI will be released. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held. The 47th ASEAN Summit will be held in Malaysia, and Trump will attend. The Fed will hold a payment innovation conference. The US 9 - month CPI originally scheduled for October 15th was postponed to October 24th due to the government shutdown, and the US October Markit manufacturing PMI will also be announced on the same day [13]. - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination. The appointment of a dovish prime minister in Japan will bring upward momentum in the direction of easing. On the other hand, Sino - US trade concerns have significantly cooled down. These two factors will impact gold and silver prices in opposite directions, but the improvement in risk appetite will also drive gold and silver prices to remain relatively strong. The upward trend remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - The prices of various gold and silver varieties showed different price movements and fluctuations last week. For example, Shanghai gold 2512 had a previous close of 999, the highest was 1001, and the increase was 94; Shanghai silver 2512 had a previous close of 12249, the highest was 12366, and the increase was 24. The US dollar index closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated 0.29% [4][13]. 2. Weekly Review - The US government continued to shut down last week, trade concerns were high, and gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached a consensus on coalition governance. Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold new - round consultations. China's September economic data showed that the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap reached a new low of 1.2 percentage points, the year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [13][14][15]. 3. Fundamental Data - China's September economic data: new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, new RMB deposits were 2.21 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap was 1.2 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI was 1%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [15]. 4. Position Data - Shanghai gold's top 20 long positions decreased by 7.00% to 204,656, short positions increased by 1.25% to 79,553, and the net position decreased by 11.59% to 125,103. Shanghai silver's top 20 long positions increased by 9.91% to 377,410, short positions increased by 14.57% to 285,786, and the net position decreased by 2.46% to 91,624. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [25][27][29]. 5. Summary - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination and the release of the US CPI data. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton generally showed a volatile rebound trend. After continuous declines in the early stage, a technical rebound occurred. The overall market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative aspects. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous negative news has been gradually digested. The main contract 01 should pay attention to the pressure around 13,500, and the intraday trading idea is to be bullish on the volatility [4][5]. - Positive factors include the reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high tariffs on exports to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton was in a volatile rebound trend. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.28 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to the ICAC September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both 25.5 million tons; according to the USDA September report, the output is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October report for the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous negative news has been gradually digested. The main contract 01 should pay attention to the pressure around 13,500, and the intraday trading idea is to be bullish on the volatility [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus Not explicitly stated in the provided content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: The USDA's September global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 25.622 million tons, and consumption is 25.872 million tons. The ICAC's 2025/26 season global output is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 season data shows output of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.22 million tons [4][11][13][15]. - **Price and Trade Data**: In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. 3.5 Position Data Not explicitly stated in the provided content.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（10.13-10.17） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 不锈钢主力：20均线上下宽幅震荡，远离均线则可做回归。 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价偏弱运行，周初镍价下行，下游成交尚可，周三后价格启稳，交投转 冷清。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿山挺价，海运费最近有小幅下 降。镍铁价格回落，成本线有所下移。不锈钢库存小幅回落，节后再次开始去库存。新能 源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车有所回升，但总体提振有限。中长线过剩格局不变。 操作策略： 沪镍主力：120000-123800震荡运行，可逢高试空。 二、基本面分析 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices continued to decline with fluctuations. The decline was significant in the first half of the week and slightly rebounded in the second half [4]. - New sugar is about to be listed in large quantities. Considering that the listing price of new sugar is higher than the futures price, the near - month main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to decline, and its rebound strength is relatively stronger than that of the 05 contract. Whether it can further rebound remains to be observed [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new year, the fall of foreign sugar prices below 16 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, sugar prices continued to decline with fluctuations. The decline was significant in the first half of the week and slightly rebounded in the second half [4]. - Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated the global sugar supply gap in the 25/26 season to be 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast [4]. - By the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons; the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Hints - Positive factors: There is a gap in the domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet, and the medium - and long - term gap is decreasing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 6,000 yuan. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the tariff on imported raw sugar. Trump approved the modification of the cola formula, which is beneficial to sugar in the long term [8]. - Negative factors: StoneX and Czarnikow predicted a global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season. Green Pool and USDA predicted an increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season. SCA Brasil and Conab predicted a decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - The 25/26 season's supply - demand situation: Different institutions have different predictions. ISO predicted a narrowing supply gap to 20,000 tons; StoneX predicted a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicted a supply surplus of 7.4 million tons; Datagro predicted a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicted a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicted a supply surplus of 400,000 tons; Green Pool predicted a supply surplus [32]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: The sugar production in the 25/26 season is predicted to be 11.2 million tons, with imports of 5 million tons, consumption of 15.9 million tons, and a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is predicted to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is predicted to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [34]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Imported raw sugar processing cost: In September 2025, the average ICE raw sugar price was about 15.79 cents per pound, and the cost after 50% tariff was 5,454 yuan per ton [39]. 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints 2.1. Soybean Meal - Soybean meal M2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2880 - 2940. The market is neutral, with the U.S. soybean price being affected by Sino - U.S. negotiations and harvest weather, and the domestic soybean meal price being influenced by U.S. soybean trends, high imports, and spot - price discounts [9]. 2.2. Soybeans - Soybean A2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3980 - 4080. It is neutral, supported by the cost - effectiveness of domestic soybeans compared to imports but suppressed by high imports and expected domestic yield increases [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Hints - No specific content provided 3.2. Recent News - Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations are deadlocked, causing short - term negative impacts on U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market will oscillate above 1000 points, awaiting further guidance [13]. - Domestic soybean imports in October remain high, and soybean meal inventory has declined from its high. The soybean market will return to a range - bound pattern [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - breeding profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening soybean meal demand in October [13]. - The soybean meal market will remain volatile, waiting for clear U.S. soybean production and the outcome of the Sino - U.S. tariff war [13]. 3.3. Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors include slow customs clearance for imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas [14]. - Bearish factors are high domestic soybean imports in October and expected high U.S. soybean yields [14]. - The main logic is the focus on U.S. soybean harvest weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff negotiations [14]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors are cost support for domestic soybeans from imported soybeans and expected increased domestic demand [15]. - Bearish factors are high Brazilian soybean yields and expected increases in domestic soybean production [15]. - The main logic is the focus on U.S. soybean weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff negotiations [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price Data - From October 9 - 17, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2965 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume varied from 6.51 - 22.38 million tons [16]. - From October 9 - 17, the prices of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot markets showed certain fluctuations [18]. 3.4.2. Inventory Data - As of a certain period, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease and a 3.04% year - on - year decrease [9]. - The oil - mill soybean inventory was 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% month - on - month increase and a 14.38% year - on - year increase [11]. 3.4.3. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 - 2024 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. 3.5. Positioning Data - The positions of the main contracts of soybean meal and soybeans have changed, with the main short positions in soybean meal decreasing and those in soybeans increasing [9][11]. 3.6. Others - Sino - U.S. soybean trade is affected by tariff negotiations and weather in U.S. soybean - growing areas [13][14]. - Domestic soybean imports in October are high, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from its peak [13]. - The profitability of domestic pig - breeding has decreased, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened [13]. - The price of Brazilian soybeans has decreased, and the profit margin of the futures market has fluctuated slightly [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean market is affected by factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, US soybean weather, and import volume. The short - term trend of US soybeans is mainly in a volatile state above the 1000 mark. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal are also in a volatile pattern, influenced by US soybean trends, import volume, and domestic demand [10][11]. - The soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state. The demand for soybean meal has entered the off - season, and the price is affected by factors such as import volume, oil mill inventory, and downstream demand [1][10][11]. - The pig - raising industry has seen a recent decline in profits, and the price of live pigs has also fallen back. The demand for soybean meal in the short term is relatively weak, but the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations and US soybean weather still affects the market [13][14][56]. 3. Summary According to Different Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Tips No information is provided under this section. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are still deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market will be further guided by growth and harvesting conditions, import volume, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The domestic import volume of soybeans remains high in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level. The soybean meal market has returned to a range - bound pattern [13]. - The reduction of pig - raising profits in the domestic market has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal in October has decreased, which suppresses the price of soybean meal. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations still affects the market [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for soybean meal - There are still uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations [14]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is still at a low level [14]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish for soybean meal - The total import volume of domestic soybeans remains high in October [14]. - The harvest of Brazilian soybeans is over, and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America continues [14]. Bullish for soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [15]. - The expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [15]. Bearish for soybeans - Brazil has a bumper soybean harvest, and China has increased its purchase of Brazilian soybeans [15]. - The expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppresses the price of soybeans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend. The inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated, reaching 21.98% in 2024 [22]. - **USDA's monthly supply - demand report in the past six months**: The planting area, yield, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans have changed. The production of Brazilian soybeans is expected to be 1.69 billion tons, and that of Argentine soybeans is expected to be 0.49 billion tons [23]. - **US soybean planting, growth, and harvesting progress**: In 2024, the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other progress of US soybeans were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The harvesting rate also showed a certain growth trend [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian soybean planting and harvesting progress in the 2024/25 season**: The planting rate and harvesting rate of Brazilian soybeans showed a growth trend, and were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28]. - **Argentine soybean planting progress in the 2024/25 season**: The planting rate of Argentine soybeans showed an upward trend, and was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [29]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided under this section. 3.6 Trading Strategies Soybean meal trading strategy - **Futures**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate around the 1000 mark in the short term, and soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 3000, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - **Options strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybean trading strategy - **Futures**: The A2601 contract of soybeans is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3900 - 4100, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - **Options strategy**: Wait and see [20]. 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - **Most important**: The harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas, the follow - up of Sino - US trade relations and tariff war, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72][73]. - **Second important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [74]. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors, and the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [74].

证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年10月13日-10月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 本周01合约为上涨态势，周一开盘价为72800元/吨，周五收盘价为75700元/吨，周涨幅为3.98%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为21066吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产13164吨，环比增 加0.77%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产2791吨，环比增加3.56%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产 3114吨，环比增加7.23%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产1997吨，环比增加1.27%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年9月碳酸锂需求量为116801实物吨，环比增加12.28%,预测下月需求量为123198 实 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and follows the soybean meal market in a volatile pattern. It is currently in a neutral state, with short - term fluctuations influenced by factors such as the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, changes in China - Canada trade relations, and the shift in the demand season [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to assume a volatile and slightly bullish trend. For the RM2601 contract, it is expected to fluctuate around 2400, and short - term trading or a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, leading to a decrease in demand and putting downward pressure on the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has offset the impact of reduced Ukrainian rapeseed production by increased Russian production, and geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [19]. - Oil mill processing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed processed by oil mills remained low, rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory remained flat week - on - week [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downward, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight increase in the spot premium [33]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal increased, and funds flowed in, indicating a bearish sentiment [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the short - term positive factors were exhausted. Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, it is in a slightly bearish volatile pattern. The KDJ indicator is oscillating at a low level, and the MACD is declining, but the green energy has not expanded. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound, and the future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the performance of soybean meal [42]. 3.7 Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].