交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1、基本面：产地供应基本稳定。受近期焦炭价格企稳影响，焦煤市场情绪尚可，煤矿出货压力较小， 多挺价观望。加之部分焦企开始适当采购，矿方询价增多，影响近期线上竞拍成交价涨多跌少，部分库 存压力小的煤矿出现小幅探涨意愿；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1260，基差109；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 6、预期：铁水近期虽有小幅下滑，但总体仍在高位，刚需仍有支撑，下游库存暂时处于安全位置，近 期也陆续重启采购计划，但由于焦钢盈利状况普遍不佳，对高价煤较为抵触，预计短期焦煤价格或弱稳 运行。 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-16） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass was 1124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous value; the main basis was - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67% from the previous value [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1124 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [24][26]. Fundamentals - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [30]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 62.824 million weight - boxes, an increase of 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [46]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed different trends. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption was 53.1 million tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [47]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate industry remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw glass [6]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Although there have been more supply - side disturbances recently, the recovery of terminal demand is weak, and it is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. With some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production, the PTA supply - demand outlook improved. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival at the main port of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory is expected to rise early next week. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turns to inventory accumulation, with an overall accumulation of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol market will operate weakly. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated at a low level yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis was weak. The trading was mainly among traders, and the polyester factories' purchasing enthusiasm was limited. The mainstream price for October goods was negotiated and traded at around 85 points discount to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly higher, and the price negotiation range was around 4,305 - 4,345. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 85 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,325, the basis of the 01 contract is - 97, and the futures price is at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 days. It is bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [6]. - Main position: The net short position increased. It is bearish [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a low range, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened lower and consolidated, and the trading in the market was weak. In the morning, affected by the news of additional port charges for existing ships, the ethylene glycol disk rose slightly, and then the market maintained a narrow - range shock. In the afternoon, the basis fell slightly, and the spot was traded at around a 63 - 65 yuan/ton premium to the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level. The recent cargo was negotiated at around 483 - 487 US dollars/ton, and there were transactions at around 484 US dollars/ton for recent cargo during the day. The trading was mainly participated by traders [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,122, the basis of the 01 contract is 65, and the futures price is at a discount. It is neutral [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 445,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons. It is bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [8]. - Main position: The main net short position decreased. It is bearish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors** - Before the holiday, driven by the recovery of demand and the rebound of oil prices, the sales of the polyester market were booming. The equity inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn quickly decreased to about half a month, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester prices were stable, and the production and sales of filament yarn were only 10% - 20%. The average inventory accumulation in 8 days is expected to exceed 5 days [9]. - Some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production [10]. - **Negative Factors** - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing its operation to over 90%. This device reduced its load around October 7 [11]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the disk rebounds [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and inventory changes [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the ethylene glycol production, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and port inventory changes [14]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price trends of bottle - grade chips, production margins, operating rates, inventory, spreads, and other data from 2020 to 2025, covering PTA, MEG, and polyester products [16][19][23][24][26][30][33][37][40][42][51][53][57][62][63][66].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，企业库存累积，甘肃、河北等多省 库存增加。需求端，工业及农业需求均偏弱，农需秋季用量零散，复合肥企业产能利用率低，未 大规模开工，处于需求真空期。出口内外价差较大，虽有第三批配额落地，对国内价格支撑有限。 国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1540（+20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-57，升贴水比例-3.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存185.9万吨（+17.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国际尿素价格偏强但对国内价格支撑有限 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows regional differences. The inland market has declined significantly. Although Inner Mongolia olefins continue to purchase externally, after the holiday, with sufficient enterprise inventories, suppliers have offered discounts to sell. Some imported goods at ports have flowed back to the inland, leading to a bearish sentiment in the sales area. The port market has been driven by sanction news and the late - session rise of futures, with port spot prices slightly firm, and the basis maintaining a strengthening trend. The short - term domestic market is expected to adjust narrowly [5]. - The basis of the 01 contract shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor. As of October 9, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China has increased, and the overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas has also increased, which is a bearish factor. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, both of which are bearish factors. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2250 - 2355 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The domestic methanol market has regional performance. Inland prices have dropped, while port prices are slightly firm. The short - term market is expected to have a narrow adjustment. The price of MA2601 is expected to oscillate between 2250 - 2355 [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns Bullish Factors - Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya [6]. - The methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level [6]. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month [6]. - CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua [7]. - There is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month [7]. - Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly [7]. - Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin, and current sales are active [7]. - Due to poor sales, inventories at some production plants in the production area have accumulated [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Price Data - In the spot market, the price of methanol in different regions has changed. For example, the price in Jiangsu has increased by 1.92% week - on - week, while the price in Hebei has decreased by 0.45%. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has decreased by 68 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [8][9]. - The basis has increased by 53 yuan/ton, and the import spread has increased by 68 yuan/ton [8]. Operating Rate Data - The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% compared to the previous week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. Inventory Data - As of October 9, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China is 1273,000 tons, an increase of 4900 tons compared to before the holiday. The overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas has increased by 59,900 tons to 940,500 tons [5]. Profit Data - The profits of different methanol production processes have changed. Coal - to - methanol profit has increased by 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, while natural gas - to - methanol profit remains unchanged, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit has increased by 326 yuan/ton [21]. Downstream Product Data - The prices of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged week - on - week. The production profits and operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, MTO have also changed to varying degrees [29][34][37][41][46]. 4. Maintenance Status - Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance. In the Northwest region, enterprises such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and Shaanxi Huangling are under maintenance. In the East China region, enterprises such as Jinmei Zhongneng and Anhui Linhong Coking are under maintenance. In the Southwest region, enterprises such as Sichuan Lutianhua and Yunnan Qujing are under maintenance. In the Northeast region, enterprises such as Heilongjiang Baojia are under maintenance [57]. - Overseas methanol production enterprises also have different operating conditions. Some Iranian enterprises are in the process of resuming production, while some enterprises in other countries are under maintenance or have normal operations [58]. - Some domestic olefin production enterprises are under maintenance. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, expected to last for 45 days [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Overnight crude oil continued to trade weakly. Sino-US trade disputes showed no sign of abating, pressuring oil prices. IEA and OPEC released monthly reports expressing varying degrees of risk of crude oil surplus, further suppressing oil prices. Domestic crude oil has reached its lowest level this year, and there is still a risk of decline without geopolitical positives. Short-term trading is expected in the range of 440 - 450, and long-term investment should be on the sidelines [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Whether the US will impose a 100% tariff on Chinese exports on November 1st or earlier depends on China's attitude. IEA predicts a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in the world oil market next year, while OPEC+ report is less pessimistic, stating that the supply gap will narrow in 2026 [3] - **Basis**: On October 14th, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.25 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.91 per barrel, with a basis of $19.58 per barrel, indicating a spot premium over futures [3] - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 2.78 million barrels in the week ending October 3rd, and EIA inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. As of October 14th, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels [3] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average [3] - **Main Position**: As of September 23rd, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. As of October 7th, the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions [3] - **Expectation**: Short-term trading in the range of 440 - 450, long-term on the sidelines [3] 2. Recent News - **Trade Tensions**: US threats to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese exports may not materialize. Trump expects to reach an agreement with China, and market analysts believe the threat may be more bluster than action [5] - **Oil Price Drop**: Oil prices fell to a five-month low on Tuesday. IEA reported a "large surplus" in crude oil supply, with an expected daily surplus of 3.2 million barrels from this month to June 2026. Despite OPEC+ announcing a small increase in production in November, IEA's prediction reignited concerns about supply surplus [5] 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Threats to refineries and oil fields from the Russia-Ukraine conflict; Trump's tariff threat subsiding [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Easing of the Middle East situation; US government shutdown risk; OPEC+ considering further production increases [6] - **Market Driver**: Short-term weakening of geopolitical conflicts, long-term risk of increased supply [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: Brent crude oil settled at $62.39, down $0.93 or -1.47%; WTI crude oil settled at $58.70, down $0.79 or -1.33%; SC crude oil settled at 451.8 yuan, up 0.30 yuan or 0.07%; Oman crude oil settled at $62.74, down $1.16 or -1.82% [7] - **Spot Quotes**: UK Brent Dtd was at $62.82, down $1.53 or -2.38%; WTI was at $58.70, down $0.79 or -1.33%; Oman crude oil was at $63.26, down $0.99 or -1.54%; Shengli crude oil was at $60.60, down $1.73 or -2.78%; Dubai crude oil was at $63.64, down $1.41 or -2.17% [9] - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data showed an increase in US crude oil inventory, while Cushing area inventory decreased [3][10][14] 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 23rd, the net long position increased by 4,249 [17] - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of October 7th, the net long position decreased by 61,713 [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade - based expectations indicate that the arrival of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargoes from the West in October will increase compared to September, potentially suppressing the market fundamentals in the short term. However, after the long - holiday in the North Asian market, the downstream low - sulfur fuel oil inquiry volume is expected to rise. - Overnight frictions between China and the US, along with institutional expectations of supply surplus in the fourth quarter, will continue to put pressure on the fuel oil market. In the short term, fuel oil will remain weak. The FU2601 will trade in the range of 2650 - 2700, and the LU2512 will trade in the range of 3130 - 3190. [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation shows that the expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil imports may suppress the market, but post - holiday demand is expected to rise; the basis indicates that the spot is at a discount to the futures; Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 164 million barrels in the week of October 8; the price is below the 20 - day line; high - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing. - The expected short - term trend is weak, with FU2601 in the 2650 - 2700 range and LU2512 in the 3130 - 3190 range. [3] 2. Multi - Short Focus - Bullish factors: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 164 million barrels in the week of October 8; low - sulfur main positions are long and increasing. - Bearish factors: The expected increase in low - sulfur fuel oil imports from the West in October; the spot is at a discount to the futures; the price is below the 20 - day line; high - sulfur main positions are short and increasing; demand optimism remains to be verified; potential increase in sanctions against Russia; possible extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions. - Market drivers: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral. [3][4] 3. Fundamental Data (1) Futures Quotes | Variety | FU Main Contract Futures Price | LU Main Contract Futures Price | FU Basis | LU Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 2730 | 3240 | 22 | 12 | | Current Value | 2714 | 3216 | - 27 | - 32 | | Change | - 16 | - 24 | - 49 | - 44 | | Percentage Change | - 0.59% | - 0.74% | - 220.05% | - 357.93% | [5] (2) Spot Quotes | Variety | Zhoushan High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Zhoushan Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Middle East High - Sulfur Fuel Oil | Singapore Diesel | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 469.00 | 480.00 | 374.55 | 442.50 | 351.22 | 639.81 | | Current Value | 462.00 | 473.00 | 362.41 | 432.16 | 340.18 | 630.10 | | Change | - 7.00 | - 7.00 | - 12.14 | - 10.34 | - 11.04 | - 9.72 | | Percentage Change | - 1.49% | - 1.46% | - 3.24% | - 2.34% | - 3.14% | - 1.52% | [6] 4. Spread Data No detailed spread data analysis is provided, only a chart of high - low sulfur futures spreads is shown. [12] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on October 8 was 2061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels compared to the previous period. The inventory data from July 30 to October 8 is also presented, showing fluctuations. [3][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is bearish on the soda ash industry. The macro - negative factors combined with the weak fundamentals of soda ash are expected to lead to a short - term weak and fluctuating trend. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, with the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry not effectively improved [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures decreased by 1.04% to 1234 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased by 0.85% to 1160 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 3.90% to - 74 yuan [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process was - 89.25 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process was - 114.50 yuan/ton, showing a recovery from the historical low [14]. -开工 rate and output: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 88.41%, and the weekly output was 77.08 tons, with heavy soda ash at 42.87 tons, at a historical high [17][19]. - Capacity changes: From 2023 to 2025, there were significant expansions in soda ash capacity, with 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned 750 tons in 2025 (100 tons actually put into production) [21]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - Sales ratio: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash was 92.23% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 16.13 tons, with an operating rate of 76.01% stabilizing; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continued to decline [27]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory was 165.98 tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provided the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: During the peak maintenance period this year, soda ash production is expected to decline [3]. - Bearish factors: High supply of soda ash, declining terminal demand, high inventory, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite significantly cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly but rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to -5 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment increased notably [4]. - For silver, tariff concerns resurfaced, and the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations. The premium of Shanghai silver expanded significantly to -250 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment for silver price recovered notably [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - **Gold**: The U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 2.50 basis points to 4.028%), the dollar index fell 0.21% to 99.05, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.14, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $4159.60 per ounce. The basis was -3.97 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures increased by 1455 kilograms to 72183 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The U.S. three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed slightly higher, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively (10 - year Treasury yield dropped 6.37 basis points to 4.053%), the dollar index rose 0.43% to 99.26, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the dollar to 7.1478, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.17% to $50.35 per ounce. The basis was -41 with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures decreased by 61384 kilograms to 1063072 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the k - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased [6]. 3.2每日提示 - **Gold**: The expected events to watch include China's CPI and PPI, whether the U.S. government shutdown ends, the Fed's Beige Book, and intensive speeches by Fed and ECB members. Despite the resurfaced tariff concerns, the risk appetite cooled the previous day. The gold price declined briefly and then rebounded at night. The upward trend of gold price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Silver**: The expected events to watch are the same as for gold. The silver price dropped briefly and reached an important psychological pressure level, leading to profit - taking by funds. The upward trend of silver price remains unchanged due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. 3.3今日关注 The events to watch on this day include: at 07:30, the speech of Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs of the Reserve Bank of Australia; at 09:30, China's September CPI and PPI; the time - undetermined release of India's September imports, exports, and trade balance; at 15:40, the speech of de Guindos, Vice - President of the European Central Bank; at 16:00, the speech of Ramsden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 17:00, the euro - zone's August industrial output; possibly at 20:30, the U.S. October New York Fed Manufacturing Index; at 21:30, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the "Invest in America Forum"; at 21:45, the speeches of ECB Governing Council members Donnelly and Rehn; at 23:45, the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 23:50, the speech of Villeroy, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of France; at 00:15, Donnelly's participation in a panel discussion at the IIF Annual Meeting; at 00:30 the next day, the speech of Fed Governor Milan at the Nomura Research Forum; at 01:00 the next day, Fed Governor Waller's talk on artificial intelligence (AI); at 02:00 the next day, the release of the Fed's Beige Book and the speech of Breeden, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England; at 02:30 the next day, the speech of Jeff Schmid, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (2025 FOMC voter); at 03:45 the next day, the participation of Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, in a fireside chat during the Nomura Research Forum; at 05:50 the next day, the speech of Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor for Financial Markets of the Reserve Bank of Australia [15]. 3.4基本面数据 - **Gold**: The fundamental factors are a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory increase is bearish, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [4][5]. - **Silver**: The fundamental factors are also a mix. The basis shows the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral), the inventory change is neutral, the position of the k - line relative to the 20 - day moving average is bullish, and the main net long position is bullish [6]. 3.5持仓数据 - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold decreased by 4.28% (from 220,070 to 210,658), the short positions increased by 0.33% (from 78,569 to 78,831), and the net position decreased by 6.84% (from 141,501 to 131,827) [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased. The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver decreased by 3.22% (from 368,167 to 356,307), the short positions decreased by 1.81% (from 268,339 to 263,493), and the net position decreased by 7.03% (from 99,828 to 92,814) [6][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, the spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market will be affected by news and remain volatile [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal futures oscillate downward, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expands. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remains flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains at a low level. The price of aquatic fish rises slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [18][20][23] [25][27][35]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed enters the harvesting stage, but due to China - Canada trade issues, short - term exports decrease, and the domestic supply is expected to decline. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production increases this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which will support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not large [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The demand for domestic rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From September 26 to October 14, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2981 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 3.81 - 22.38 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was between 2470 - 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased from 462 yuan/ton to 519 yuan/ton. The price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downward, and the spot price also decreased slightly [13][15]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% compared to last week's 1.8 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 2.2 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From September 25 to October 14, the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9245 to 9089, with a decrease of 156 [17]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal increase, and the funds flow in [9].