Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market is affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance, with increasing supply and weak demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8390 - 8650 for the 2511 contract. The main logic is the mismatch between production capacity and demand, making the downward trend difficult to reverse [8][13]. - The polysilicon market also shows a situation of supply exceeding demand. Although there is cost support, the overall demand is in a state of decline, but it may rebound later. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49110 - 50870 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 97,000 tons, a 4.30% increase compared to the previous period [8]. - **Demand**: The demand was 82,000 tons. The polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, at a high level. The silicone inventory was 55,100 tons, at a low level. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 757,000 tons, at a high level. The overall demand was weak [8]. - **Cost**: The production of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was at a loss of 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [8]. - **Base Difference**: On October 14, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 780 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% increase compared to the previous period. The sample enterprise inventory increased by 3.29%, and the main port inventory remained unchanged [8]. - **Disk Surface**: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The industrial silicon 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8390 - 8650 [8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a 0.32% decrease compared to the previous period. The planned output in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month [10]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer production was in a loss state. The battery cell production was also in a loss state, while the component production was profitable. The overall demand was weak [10]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,100 yuan/ton [10]. - **Base Difference**: The basis of the N - type dense material was 2,760 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase compared to the previous period [10]. - **Disk Surface**: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - **Main Force Position**: The main force had a net long position, and the long position decreased [10]. - **Expectation**: The polysilicon 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49110 - 50870 [10]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures contracts generally showed a downward trend. For example, the 01 - contract decreased by 2.86% [16]. - The spot prices of some products remained stable, such as the East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon [16]. - Inventory data showed different trends, with some inventories increasing and some remaining stable [16]. Polysilicon - Futures contracts generally showed an upward trend. For example, the 01 - contract increased by 2.39% [18]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some changing slightly [18]. - Inventory data showed that the total weekly inventory increased by 6.19% [18]. 3. Price and Inventory Trends Industrial Silicon - The price - basis and delivery product price difference trends showed the relationship between the basis, spot price, and closing price [20]. - The inventory trends of delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises were presented [26]. Polysilicon - The disk price trend showed the price and trading volume changes of the main contract [23]. - The basis trend showed the relationship between the basis, closing price, and spot price [24]. 4. Supply and Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - The weekly supply - demand balance table showed the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [38]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table showed the actual consumption, export, import, and production of industrial silicon in different months [41]. Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance table showed the consumption, export, import, supply, and balance of polysilicon in different months [65]. 5. Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC price, production, and inventory trends were presented, including the capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trend, and production volume trend [44]. - The price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 were presented [46][47]. - The import - export and inventory trends of DMC were presented [51]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends were presented, including the price trend of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, the import - export situation of unforged aluminum alloy, and the production and inventory trends of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots [54][57]. - The demand trends in the automotive and wheel - hub markets were presented [58]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand trends were presented, including the industry cost trend, price trend of N - type dense material and N - type recycled material, and the inventory, production, and demand trends of polysilicon [62]. - The trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories were presented, including the price, production, inventory, and import - export trends of each link [68][71][74][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2900 - 2960. The domestic soybean meal may maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term, influenced by factors such as the demand turning weak, high import soybean arrivals in October, and the spot price discount [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3940 - 4040. It is affected by the cost support of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, as well as the high arrivals of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans [11]. - The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game for both soybean meal and soybeans [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the document 2. Recent News - The Sino - US tariff negotiation remains deadlocked, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market oscillates above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff negotiation [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing the price expectation of soybean meal [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: high total arrivals of imported soybeans in China in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the production of new domestic soybeans [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean Price and Transaction Data**: The transaction price and volume of soybean meal and soybeans have changed from September 26 to October 14. The price of soybean meal futures has shown a weak oscillation, while the spot price has been relatively stable, and the spot discount has slightly narrowed [16][18][23]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: The number of warehouse receipts for soybeans and soybean meal has changed from September 24 to October 14 [20]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the document 6. Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - **Range**: 2900 - 2960 [9]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans oscillated and closed lower. The domestic soybean meal oscillated and declined due to short - term weakening demand and technical consolidation [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2890 (East China), with a basis of - 12, indicating a discount to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [9]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. Soybeans - **Range**: 3940 - 4040 [11]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans oscillated and closed lower. The domestic soybeans oscillated and recovered, supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in demand, but suppressed by high arrivals of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [11]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of 133, indicating a premium to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase compared to the same period last year [11]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward [11]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed in [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a supply - demand imbalance, with over - supply and weak demand, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend due to capacity mismatch [8][11]. - The 2601 lithium carbonate contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,720 - 73,640 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 73,349 yuan/ton, a 0.07% day - on - day decrease, resulting in a loss of 1,413 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 75,178 yuan/ton, a 1.21% day - on - day decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,225 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On October 14, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 240 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 40,290 tons, a 5.06% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The total inventory was 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In September 2025, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 physical tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.12% to 828 US dollars/ton; the price of lithium mica concentrate (2.5%) decreased by 2.27% to 1,725 yuan/ton [13]. - **Lithium Salt**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.14% to 73,000 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.14% to 70,750 yuan/ton [13]. - **Positive Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of some positive materials and lithium batteries showed different degrees of increase or remained stable [13]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price**: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations over time [22]. - **Production**: The production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has changed year - by - year [22]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has fluctuated, with a significant decrease in imports from Australia [15][22]. - **Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [22]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of lithium ore held by port traders and for sale has changed over the years [22]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) has changed over time [28]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina) and the total import volume have changed [28]. - **Recycling**: The monthly recycling volume of waste lithium batteries has changed [31]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [37]. - **Production**: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) and the total production have changed [37]. - **Export**: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [37]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica**: The production cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate have changed over time [42]. - **Recycling**: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from recycled materials (phosphate - iron lithium battery black powder, etc.) have changed [44]. - **Other**: The profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, etc., have changed [44]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has changed [49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream has changed [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price**: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time [53]. - **Production**: The monthly production of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) has changed [53]. - **Loading**: The monthly loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials) has changed [53]. - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price**: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [58]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary precursors have changed [58]. - **Production**: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed [58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has changed monthly [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price**: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [64]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed [64]. - **Production**: The production of ternary materials has changed [64]. - **Export - Import**: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [66]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has changed [66]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphate Iron/Phosphate Iron Lithium - **Price**: The price of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed over time [68]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of phosphate iron lithium have changed [68]. - **Production**: The monthly production of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed [71]. - **Export**: The monthly export volume of phosphate iron lithium has changed [71]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of phosphate iron lithium has changed [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production**: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has changed over time [76]. - **Export**: The export volume of new energy vehicles has changed [76]. - **Sales**: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) and the total sales volume have changed [76]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed [77]. - **Inventory Index**: The monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index of new energy vehicles have changed [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The refineries have reduced production, which will reduce the supply pressure next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term due to the weakening of crude oil. The overall demand recovery is less than expected despite the peak season [9]. - Market outlook: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating in the range of 3269 - 3311 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: According to Longzhong, in August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The refineries have reduced production to ease the supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short term due to the weakening of crude oil [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract oscillating in the range of 3269 - 3311 [9]. - **Leverage Factors**: High - cost crude oil provides some support; high - price supply has insufficient demand, and overall demand is declining with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of various asphalt futures contracts, including 01 - 04 contracts, showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.16% to 0.47%. The basis of each contract also decreased to varying degrees [16]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 1.30% to 1.058 million tons, factory inventory increased by 6.48% to 690,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 7.69% to 120,000 tons [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis**: On October 14, the spot price in Shandong was 3460 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 293 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was higher than the futures price [9]. - **Spread**: Multiple charts show the price trends and spread relationships between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, as well as the spread trends of different asphalt contracts [18][21][24]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29% [9]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the weekly shipment volume decreased by 29.39% to 221,300 tons [8][42]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio. Social inventory is decreasing, while factory inventory is increasing [16][63][67]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [73][76]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand, and asphalt 开工率. The current demand is lower than the historical average level [79][82][85]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly supply - demand balance situation of asphalt, including downstream demand, inventory, export, import, and production [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the number of expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is also strengthening. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4662 - 4722. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The main risk points include the implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [7][8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. The supply pressure increased this week, and the number of expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 15.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 23.0 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 68.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.000 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand is close to the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2343.45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8]. - **Expectation**: The cost of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure increased this week, and the number of expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4662 - 4722 [9]. - **Leverage Factors**: Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high inventory levels and slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the price, spread, inventory, and downstream operating rate data of PVC enterprises, including different production methods (calcium carbide method and ethylene method), different regions (East China, North China, South China), and different varieties (SG - 5, etc.). For example, on October 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4640 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 52 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, the market price of PVC in East China, and the closing price of the main contract [18]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the trading volume, opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving average data of PVC futures in 2025, as well as the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [22]. - **Spread Analysis**: It shows the historical spread trends of different contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the price and profit data of related products such as caustic soda and chlorine - alkali [27][30][32][34]. - **Supply Trends**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance data of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC production, as well as the daily and weekly production and maintenance data of PVC [39][41]. - **Demand Trends**: It includes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rate data, as well as the investment, construction, and sales data of the real estate market and the data of social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bonds, and infrastructure investment [44][48][53]. - **Inventory**: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days data of PVC [57]. - **Ethylene Method**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the spread data of ethylene method FOB and vinyl chloride import [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 is expected to oscillate weakly. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc decline in an oscillating manner, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, but more short - positions being cut. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, the short - term KDJ indicator is declining and operating in the strong area, the trend indicator is declining, and the short - side strength is dominant [2][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 22,270, and the basis was + 50, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On October 14, LME zinc inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 38,600 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,120 tons to 58,494 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (October 15) - For different delivery months, there were various price changes, trading volumes, and position changes. For example, for the 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 22,285, the opening price was 22,330, the closing price was 22,220, down 65, with a trading volume of 124,307 lots and an open interest of 95,194 lots, a decrease of 6,505 lots [3]. 5. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (October 14) - Zinc concentrate in Binzhou was priced at 17,360 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; zinc ingot was 22,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet was 3,978 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe was 4,391 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,760 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27,520 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 6. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/9/25 - 2025/10/13) - The total inventory on October 13 was 153,500 tons, an increase of 25,100 tons compared to September 29 and 17,400 tons compared to October 9 [5]. 7. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (October 14) - The total warrant was 58,494 tons, a decrease of 1,120 tons. There were different changes in warrants in various regions, such as a decrease of 99 tons in Shanghai and 1,021 tons in Tianjin [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (October 14) - The inventory was 38,600 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons, with registered warrants of 24,200 tons,注销 warrants of 14,400 tons, and a cancellation ratio of 37.31% [7]. 9. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (October 14) - Zinc concentrate with a 50% grade in different regions had prices ranging from 17,060 to 17,360 yuan/ton, all up 10 yuan/ton [9]. 10. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (October 14) - The price of 0 zinc ingots (≥99.995%) from different smelters ranged from 21,910 to 23,330 yuan/ton, mostly up 10 yuan/ton, except for Gansu Baiyin Non - ferrous, which was up 350 yuan/ton [13]. 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The planned production in September was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production in October was 509,600 tons [15]. 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (October 14) - For domestic 50% grade zinc concentrate, the processing fees in different regions ranged from 3,000 to 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and for imported 48% grade, it was 105 US dollars/kiloton [17]. 13. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (October 14) - In the zn2511 contract, for trading volume, the total trading volume of 20 members was 204,762 lots, down 78,944 lots; for long positions, the total was 66,347 lots, down 3,046 lots; for short positions, the total was 63,954 lots, down 4,443 lots [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the spot market trading atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. Some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, combined with the delay of new device commissioning, improved the supply - demand outlook. It is expected that the short - term spot price will still fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival at the main port of ethylene glycol is still high, and it is expected that the port inventory will still rise at the beginning of next week. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turned to inventory accumulation, with an overall increase of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. The market sentiment is under obvious pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol market will operate weakly. Attention should be paid to external and device changes [8]. - Overall: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored for the market rebound [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2. Daily Hints - **PTA** - Fundamental: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and declined. The spot market trading atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened. The trading was mainly among traders. The price negotiation range for October goods was around 4,340 - 4,425, and the current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 82 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,385, and the 01 contract basis is - 55, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 days [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions increasing [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened, and the market trading was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol declined, and the buying sentiment was average. The intraday market continued to be weak, with the low - level spot transactions around 4,110 - 4,115 yuan/ton, and the spot basis moderately weakened [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,150, and the 01 contract basis is 89, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 445,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons [9]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [9]. - Main Position: Net short position, with short positions decreasing [8]. 3.3. Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity showed an increasing trend, with the production capacity reaching 9.472 billion tons in December 2025. The production capacity utilization rate and production volume also fluctuated. The demand from polyester also showed an upward trend, and the inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio also changed accordingly [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol showed an increasing trend, and the demand from polyester also increased. The port inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio also changed over time [15]. 3.5. Impact Factor Summary - **Positive Factors** - Before the holiday, driven by the rebound in demand and oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarns quickly decreased to about half a month, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester prices were stable [10]. - Some PTA device maintenance and production cuts, combined with the delay of new device commissioning [11]. - **Negative Factors** - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing its production to over 90%, and this device reduced its load around October 7 [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has some disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In September, manufacturing production accelerated, and the PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances exist with smelting production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policy. September manufacturing PMI reached 49.8%, showing improved business climate; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 85940, basis is 1530, indicating a premium over futures; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 14, copper inventory decreased by 550 to 138800 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week; assessment is neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: Main net long positions are held, but long positions are decreasing; assessment is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, and geopolitical disturbances remain. The incident at the Indonesian Grasberg Block Cave mine is intensifying, and the copper price will maintain its strength [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Escalation of trade wars [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: On October 14, copper inventory decreased by 550 to 138800 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 14656 tons to 109690 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - Processing fees are falling [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is in a tight - balance state [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, consumption, and balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 110000 tons [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of US soybeans. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The current main logic is centered around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that the prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - The basis of soybean oil is 180, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of soybean oil on August 22 was 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that soybean oil Y2601 will fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - The MPOB report for August shows a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - The basis of palm oil is - 70, with the spot price lower than the futures price, which is bearish. The port inventory of palm oil on August 22 was 580,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish. The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The long positions of the main palm oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that palm oil P2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - The MPOB report indicates a decrease in Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and inventory in August. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - The basis of rapeseed oil is 201, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The commercial inventory of rapeseed oil on August 22 was 560,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish. The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish. The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing, which is bullish. It is expected that rapeseed oil OI2601 will fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factor: The US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 25/26 season, with most predicting an oversupply. The current trend of Zhengzhou sugar shows an accelerating bottom - seeking situation. With new sugar about to be massively launched and the peak consumption season over, the short - term trend will continue to be weak, showing a wave - like decline, and there may be small rebounds after sharp drops [4][5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277 million tons. ISO estimated a supply gap of 231,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China produced 11.1621 billion tons of sugar in the 24/25 season, sold 10 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 155,700 tons year - on - year. This is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,850 yuan, with a basis of 453 yuan (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Zhengzhou sugar is accelerating to find the bottom. New sugar is about to be launched in large quantities, and the peak consumption season has passed. The short - term trend will continue to be weak, with the market falling three steps and rebounding two steps, showing a wave - like decline. There may be small rebounds after sharp drops [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply gap of about 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 620 - 750 million tons; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 40 million tons; Green Pool predicts a surplus of 115 million tons [36]. - **China's Sugar Market Data**: In 2025, China's sugar - producing area data shows that the sown area, harvested area, and unit yield of sugarcane and beet are stable. The predicted sugar production in 2025/26 is 11.2 billion tons, imports are 5 billion tons, consumption is 15.9 billion tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [38]. - **Import Data**: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 60,000 tons year - on - year, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a decrease of 155,700 tons year - on - year [4][9]. 5. Position Data - The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [5].