Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The tense Sino - US relations have put pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main risk is the El Nino weather [5]. 3. Summary by Oil Types Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - cut season. The overall view is neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8432, with a basis of 180, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main positions**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The overall view is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9362, with a basis of - 40, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season. The overall view is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10153, with a basis of 221, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main positions**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9800 - 10200 [4]. 4. Recent利多 and利空 Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5].

沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘震荡盘整。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿山挺价，部分地区有 地震，但对开采影响有限。镍铁价格弱稳，成本线坚挺，镍铁企业仍然亏损。不锈钢库存国庆期间回升。 新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对镍需求提升有限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏 空 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2、基差：现货122300，基差1120，偏多 6、结论：沪镍2511：宽幅震荡思路，逢高仍可试空。 3、库存：LME库存246756，+3498，上交所仓单26558，+1531，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The new sugar is about to be listed in large quantities, and the peak consumption season has passed. After continuous declines, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar (01) will experience short - term low - level shock adjustments. Although the overall center of gravity is moving down, the trend is tortuous, and there may be small intraday rebounds [4][8] - There are multiple factors affecting the sugar market. On one hand, there are positive factors such as good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of US cola formula to use sucrose. On the other hand, there are negative factors like the increase in global sugar production, the expected surplus in the new season, the drop in foreign sugar prices, and the opening of the import profit window [6] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX expected a 2.77 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season. ISO predicted a supply deficit of 231,000 tons for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons. The overall situation was bearish [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou was 5,840 yuan, and the basis was 437 (for the 01 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which was bullish [4] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.16 million tons, a neutral situation [4] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The position was bearish, the net short position increased, and the main trend was unclear, which was bearish [4] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast by Institutions**: Different institutions had different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expected a supply deficit of 20,000 tons (close to balance); StoneX expected a 2.77 - million - ton surplus; Czarnikow expected a surplus between 6.2 million and 7.5 million tons; Datagro expected a 1.53 - million - ton surplus; Covrig Analytics expected a 4.2 - million - ton surplus; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expected a 400,000 - ton surplus; Green Pool expected a 1.15 - million - ton surplus [34] - **China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance Sheet**: The sugar - cane planting area in 2025/26 was expected to be 1.23 million hectares, the beet planting area was 210,000 hectares, the sugar production was expected to be 11.2 million tons, the import volume was 5 million tons, the consumption was 15.9 million tons, and the balance change was 120,000 tons. The international sugar price was expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price was expected to be between 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [36] - **Import Cost**: The duty - paid cost of imported raw sugar processed with a 50% tariff in September 2025 was about 5,454 yuan per ton, with the ICE raw sugar average price of about 15.79 cents per pound and the import source from Brazil [41] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Zinc futures showing a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with the long - side reduction being more significant. Overall, it was a volatile trend with shrinking volume. The bulls actively exited the market, and the bears also actively left. In the short term, the market may oscillate and weaken. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing the support of the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator declined, running at the strength - weakness demarcation point. The trend indicator declined, with the bullish strength decreasing and the bearish strength increasing, and the dominance of the bearish strength expanding. It is recommended that the Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 contract will oscillate and weaken [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons. From January to July, global zinc ore production was 7.3437 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +55, which is neutral [2]. - On October 15, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 tons to 38,350 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 7,172 tons to 65,666 tons compared with the previous day, which is neutral [2]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Market Quotes - On October 15, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 232,694 lots, with a total trading value of 2.56184847 billion yuan. The open interest of all contracts was 210,731 lots, an increase of 675 lots [3]. 3.3 Spot Market Quotes - On October 15, the prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market generally declined. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai was 22,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 Inventory Statistics - From September 25 to October 13, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 1.354 million tons to 1.535 million tons, an increase of 251,000 tons compared with September 29 and 174,000 tons compared with October 9 [5]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipt Report - On October 15, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 65,666 tons, an increase of 7,172 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 3,211 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 4,236 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On October 15, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 250 tons to 38,350 tons. The注销 ratio in Singapore was 36.38%, and in Hong Kong, China, it was 1.89% [8]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On October 15, the processing fees for zinc concentrates in different regions varied. For example, in HIT HA, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade zinc concentrate was 105 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 3.8 Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2511 contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on October 15, the total trading volume of members was 204,084 lots, an increase of 194 lots. The total long - position volume was 63,360 lots, a decrease of 2,569 lots, and the total short - position volume was 61,669 lots, a decrease of 1,671 lots [19]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Production - In September 2025, the production of refined zinc was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production in October is 509,600 tons [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of iron ore shows that steel mills' hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level at ports has decreased this month, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories have decreased, there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, and the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot prices of PB powder and Brazilian Blend at Rizhao Port are at a premium to futures, showing a bullish sign [2]. - Port inventories are 14,641.08 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is downward, showing a bearish sign [2]. - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - With the expected decline in domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamental situation: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply arrival at ports is lower this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, there will be crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war is easing, being neutral [2]. - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 817 with a basis of 40; Rizhao Port Brazilian Blend spot converted to futures price is 833 with a basis of 56, showing spot premium to futures, being bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14,641.08 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, being neutral [2]. - Disk: Price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is downward, being bearish [2]. - Main position: The main iron ore position is net long and the long position is decreasing, being bullish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand is decreasing, capacity - reduction plans impact the market, and the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Factors - Bullish factors: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, import losses, and rising downstream steel prices with strong tolerance for high - priced raw materials [6]. - Bearish factors: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [6]. Other Catalogs - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [7], iron ore basis [12], iron ore import profit [14], iron ore shipments [17], iron ore port and steel mill inventories [19], iron ore arrival and dispatch volumes [21], iron ore daily consumption [24], steel enterprise production [26], and iron ore port daily transactions and steel mills' daily hot metal production [29].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE are bearish, with the plastic主力合约 expected to fluctuate weakly. The decline in crude oil prices and increased Sino - US macro risks contribute to this outlook. The PE market is also affected by a neutral - high industrial inventory and stable agricultural film operations [4]. - The PP market is also expected to fluctuate weakly. Similar to LLDPE, it is influenced by falling crude oil prices, elevated Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity coming online, and a neutral - high inventory [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Sections LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase, demand decrease" pattern of crude oil limits cost support for polyolefins. After Trump's tariff threat on October 10, the risk of Sino - US trade disputes escalating increased, causing a significant drop in oil prices. On the supply - demand side, device maintenance decreased, production increased, agricultural film operations were stable, and demand for other films was good due to the approaching Double 11. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6960 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 42, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 54.3 million tons (+11.3), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE主力合约 is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE主力 is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE主力合约 is expected to fluctuate weakly today due to falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable agricultural film operations, and a neutral - high industrial inventory [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors are weak year - on - year demand, multiple new productions in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing PMI improved but remained in the contraction range. Crude oil's long - term pattern limited cost support, and Sino - US trade risks increased. Supply was abundant, plastic weaving was supported by the peak season, and pipe demand was weak. The current PP delivery spot price is 6600 (-80), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 2, with a neutral position [6]. - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 68.1 million tons (+16.1), considered neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP主力合约 is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP主力 is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP主力合约 is expected to fluctuate weakly today due to falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity, and a neutral - high inventory [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Bullish factors include geopolitical unrest providing cost support; bearish factors are weak year - on - year demand, multiple new productions in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023. The consumption growth rate fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 and relatively small increases in other years [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The consumption growth rate was positive in most years, with relatively high growth in 2019 and 2020 [15].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved. However, during the peak maintenance period within the year, the output is expected to decline [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1232 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 72 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.16% compared with the previous value, the price in Shahe remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 2.70% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [11]. Supply in Fundamentals - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process is - 89.25 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production process is - 114.50 yuan/ton, and the production profit has rebounded from the historical low [14]. -开工率和产能产量: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 88.41%, and the weekly output is 77.08 tons, including 42.87 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [17][19]. - Industry capacity changes: From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 is 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual production of 100 tons in 2025 [21]. Demand in Fundamentals - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.23% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.13 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass shows a downward trend, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [27]. Inventory in Fundamentals - The inventory of soda ash plants nationwide is 165.98 tons, an increase of 0.50% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash over the years [35].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1、基本面：产地供应基本稳定。受近期焦炭价格企稳影响，焦煤市场情绪尚可，煤矿出货压力较小， 多挺价观望。加之部分焦企开始适当采购，矿方询价增多，影响近期线上竞拍成交价涨多跌少，部分库 存压力小的煤矿出现小幅探涨意愿；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1260，基差109；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 6、预期：铁水近期虽有小幅下滑，但总体仍在高位，刚需仍有支撑，下游库存暂时处于安全位置，近 期也陆续重启采购计划，但由于焦钢盈利状况普遍不佳，对高价煤较为抵触，预计短期焦煤价格或弱稳 运行。 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-16） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1129 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass was 1124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous value; the main basis was - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67% from the previous value [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1124 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines was 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, at a historically low level in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [24][26]. Fundamentals - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [30]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 62.824 million weight - boxes, an increase of 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [46]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production, consumption, and other data of float glass showed different trends. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption was 53.1 million tons, with a growth rate of - 1.15% [47]. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate industry remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw glass [6]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Although there have been more supply - side disturbances recently, the recovery of terminal demand is weak, and it is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. With some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production, the PTA supply - demand outlook improved. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival at the main port of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory is expected to rise early next week. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turns to inventory accumulation, with an overall accumulation of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol market will operate weakly. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated at a low level yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis was weak. The trading was mainly among traders, and the polyester factories' purchasing enthusiasm was limited. The mainstream price for October goods was negotiated and traded at around 85 points discount to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly higher, and the price negotiation range was around 4,305 - 4,345. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 85 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,325, the basis of the 01 contract is - 97, and the futures price is at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 days. It is bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [6]. - Main position: The net short position increased. It is bearish [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a low range, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened lower and consolidated, and the trading in the market was weak. In the morning, affected by the news of additional port charges for existing ships, the ethylene glycol disk rose slightly, and then the market maintained a narrow - range shock. In the afternoon, the basis fell slightly, and the spot was traded at around a 63 - 65 yuan/ton premium to the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level. The recent cargo was negotiated at around 483 - 487 US dollars/ton, and there were transactions at around 484 US dollars/ton for recent cargo during the day. The trading was mainly participated by traders [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,122, the basis of the 01 contract is 65, and the futures price is at a discount. It is neutral [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 445,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons. It is bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [8]. - Main position: The main net short position decreased. It is bearish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors** - Before the holiday, driven by the recovery of demand and the rebound of oil prices, the sales of the polyester market were booming. The equity inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn quickly decreased to about half a month, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester prices were stable, and the production and sales of filament yarn were only 10% - 20%. The average inventory accumulation in 8 days is expected to exceed 5 days [9]. - Some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production [10]. - **Negative Factors** - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing its operation to over 90%. This device reduced its load around October 7 [11]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the disk rebounds [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and inventory changes [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the ethylene glycol production, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and port inventory changes [14]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price trends of bottle - grade chips, production margins, operating rates, inventory, spreads, and other data from 2020 to 2025, covering PTA, MEG, and polyester products [16][19][23][24][26][30][33][37][40][42][51][53][57][62][63][66].